Working to Engineer Infrastructure Resiliency in a Changing Operating Environment

Bill WallacePresident, Wallace Futures Group, LLC

Bill Wallace BioLead designer, educator for the Envision™ Sustainable Infrastructure Rating System

Recognized in Engineering News-Record’s Top 25 Newsmakers of 2013

Author, presenter of ASCE’s new course, “Principles of Sustainable Engineering”Book author: Becoming Part of the Solution: The Engineer’s Guide to Sustainable DevelopmentPast-president and member of the Governing Board: Engineers Without Borders–USA and Engineers Without Borders-InternationalMember of the Board of Directors

GeoEngineers, Inc.International Society of Sustainability Professionals

Former Liaison Delegate to the World Business Council for Sustainable Development21 years at CH2M HILL in various senior positions; Three-year term on the Board of Directors

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Critical Issues in Sustainable Engineering

1. Sustainability is the most important and the most poorly understood issue of the 21st century

2. Sustainability is turning geotechnical engineering upside down

3. Sustainability is creating opportunities and challenges not seen in generations

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Where Do You Want To Be On The Sustainable Infrastructure Project Food Chain?

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Imagery supplied by Clipart.com

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1. Sustainable Development Is the Most Important and the Most Poorly Understood Issue of the 21st Century

We are using up resources faster than they can be replaced or replenished; damaging ecosystem services faster than they can be restoredThese are resources and services essential for maintaining and improving quality of life

Across regionsAcross generations

Mismanagement of these resources and services has consequences

What’s the problem?

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What Are These Resources and Ecosystem Services?Provisioning Services

Non-renewablesPetroleumMinerals and metals

RenewablesFresh waterFisheriesBiochemicalsGenetic resources

Regulating ServicesClimate regulationWater purificationStormwater and erosion controlNatural hazard regulationDisease and pest regulation

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More… More…

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Society Is Operating As If It Had 1.5 Planets to Work With

Source: Living Planet Report 2012, World Wildlife Fund

Number of planets we are

using

Number of planets available

Overshoot

Global Biocapacity

Ecological Footprint

The U.S. is operating as if it had 5 planets to work with

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The Consequences Are Significant and Intensifying…

Source: Creative Commons

Road collapse in Boulder, CO

Deepwater Horizon Oil Release in the Gulf of Mexico

Low Water levels in the Mississippi River

Dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico

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…And Are Likely to Get Worse

Source: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change

Current Kyoto Target Business-as-usual

Likely

Pre-Industrial

By 2100

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We Know What’s Causing These Problems

Sustainable development is “…development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

Dr. Gro Harlem BrundtlandBrundtland Commission Report, 1987

Our approach to economic development is not sustainable

Source: Creative Commons

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We’ve Added Sustainability Principles to ASCE’s Cannons of Ethics

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) defines sustainability as a set of economic, environmental and social conditions in which all of society has the capacity and opportunity to maintain and improve its quality of life indefinitely, without degrading the quantity, quality or the availability of natural resources and ecosystems

Moreover, sustainable development is the process of converting natural resources into products and services that are more profitable, productive, and useful, while maintaining or enhancing the quantity, quality, availability and productivity of the remaining natural resource base and the ecological systems on which they depend.

Source: ASCE Policy Statement 418 – The Role of the Civil Engineer in Sustainable Development

Process

End State

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We Just Don’t Know What to do About It

Incomplete answersWhat’s the current situation?What’s the desired end state?How big is the gap?

Poor responseBe nice to the planetPractice organizational/project hygiene

Accessorizing for sustainability

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Some Organizations Are Figuring This Out

ReputationDemonstrate organizational hygiene and be planet friendly

Opportunity“Wow! Saving energy saves money!”

Necessity“Water is getting scarce and expensive!”

Drivers for improving sustainable performance

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But Progress Is Slow

Society (and engineers) struggle to grasp these concepts and their implicationsNo individuals or groups have provided the necessary leadership to make the changeHigh resistance to change by owners and operators of existing systems

E.g., Fossil fuels based facilities and infrastructure

Taking appropriate action against climate change means that $20 trillion in fixed assets become stranded assets

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"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it."

Source: Creative Commons

There Are Reasons for the Slow Progress

Upton Sinclair

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2. Sustainability is Turning Geotechnical Engineering Upside Down

The consequences of unsustainable behavior are changing environmental conditions

Ways that are significant and not necessarily predictable

Basic engineering design assumptions about future environmental conditions are no longer reliableRequires a new and more dynamic approach to engineering design

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We Always Assumed That Environmental Conditions Were Relatively Constant and Predictable…Now They’re NotIssue Consequences

Resource Overuse

Changing the cost, availability of critical resources

Ecosystem Damage

Changing the mean, variance and extremes of environmental conditions

Scientists are calling it “non-stationarity”

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“What is past is no longer prologue”

“What’s past is prologue”William Shakespeare, The Tempest, Act 2, Scene I

U.S. National Archives, Washington, D.C.

At least not for projects in the built environment!

Source: Creative Commons

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Conditions of Non-Stationarity In Infrastructure Design Variables

Time

Old

var

ian

ce

Extreme values

Old

New

New

var

ian

ce

Ch

ang

e in

av

erag

e va

lue

“Handbook” assumptionsbased on empirical data

TODAY

New average value based on current data

Current assumption for average value

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Designing for Non-StationarityDesign Issue Old Challenges New Challenges

Site characterization

Characterization within the bounds of expected environmental conditions

Significant and continuous change in environmental conditions. Tipping points.

Slope stability Account sufficiently for known, anticipated stresses

High intensity storms, extended droughts, more forest fires

Foundation design

Design for expected environmental conditions

High intensity storms, extreme scouring, erosion, other stresses

Coastal/offshore structures

Design for expected environmental conditions

High intensity storms, sea rise, storm surges

Stormwater flow Design for the 100-year storm event

Multiple “100-year” storm events, high intensity storms, forest fires, more rock falls and large debris

Water and wastewater

Identification and characterization of water resources

Extended droughts, heat waves, loss of snowpack, access to water, water storage

Dikes and levees

Design for expected environmental conditions

Record floods, extended droughts, desiccation cracking

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New

Old

Range of Operating Conditions

Robustness Adaptability

Old New

Range of Operating Conditions

Resiliency

X

Plausible Extreme Event

Range of Functionality

Range of Operating Conditions

Strategies for Addressing Non-Stationarity

X

Redundancy

Systems Integration

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3. Sustainability Is Creating Opportunities and Challenges Not Seen in Generations

AcademiaBuild a new body of knowledgeCreate new scientific and engineering disciplines

Public and private sectorTruly protect public health, safety and welfareSave taxpayer/shareholder dollarsIdentify for your bosses or clients opportunities and risks they never thought they hadMove from commodity to value-based consulting

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Requires a Major Transformation in Infrastructure Project Delivery

Old Way New WayMeet project owner needs and specifications

Meet project owner needs and specifications

Meet stakeholder expectations for project/organizational hygiene

Make a meaningful contribution to improved sustainable performance

Obtain legal counsel and practice saying, “Hey, stuff happens!”

Account for a changing operating environment

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Geotechnical Engineers Have a Distinct Competitive Advantage

Currently operate in an environment that is difficult to characterizeHave methodologies to handle uncertainty

Observational method

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Karl Terzaghi

Ralph PeckSource: Creative Commons

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Are You Up To the Challenge?Requires a major transformation in project delivery

Develop and deploy the requisite standards and methodologies

Opportunity to lead the way toward conditions of sustainability

Shift away from delivering commodity servicesCreate new knowledge, new methodologiesProvide high value

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Imagery supplied by Clipart.com

Bill Wallace

Thank you for listening!