Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead...
Transcript of Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead...
![Page 1: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
June 2010
Bill Gething: Sustainability + Architecture
![Page 2: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Thanks:
Technology Strategy Board Fionnuala Costello
NERC Simon Jackman
Tessa Edgecombe
Arup Chris Twinn
CIBSE Anastasia Mylona
Kier Chris Doran
AECOM Ant Wilson
University of Southampton Professor Bakr Bahaj
Land Securities Dave Farebrother Stakeholder Panel
Editor Lindsey Coles.
UKCIP Gerry Metcalf
Roger Street
Stephanie Ferguson
CLG Emily Hay
DEFRA Will Lockhead
British Standards Institution Alan Hall
![Page 3: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Report Outline
Outline of information available
Context for adaptation
Impacts on the industry.
![Page 4: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Global GHG Emissions Scenarios: (Gt CO2 eq/ yr)
High(A1F1)
Low(B1)2
040
160
140
120
80
100
60
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Med(A1B)
![Page 5: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Temperature: Global Mean – Change ºC
Med(A1B)
High(A1F1)
Low(B1)
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
![Page 6: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC South East
Likely33%
67%
Low
50%
1º C
10%
90%
Very Likely
![Page 10: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
South East
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC
Med
2º C
![Page 11: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
South East
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC
High
3º C
![Page 12: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Temperature: Global Mean – Change ºC
Med(A1B)
High(A1F1)
Low(B1)
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
World
Stabilisation
Scenario
(-4%/ yr from 2016)
![Page 16: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Global GHG Emissions (Gt CO2 eq/ yr)
High(A1F1)
Low(B1)
World
Stabilisation
Scenario
(-4%/ yr from 2016)
20
40
160
140
120
80
100
60
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Med(A1B)
![Page 17: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
50%10% 90%10% 90%
2020
2050
2080
+5>6 ºC +9>10 ºC+1>2 ºC
![Page 18: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
50%10% 90%10% 90%
2020
2050
2080
24-27 ºC 30-33 ºC21-24 ºC
![Page 19: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
50%10% 90%10% 90%
2020
2050
2080
18-24 ºC 24-27 ºC15-21 ºC
![Page 20: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
WinterSummer
2050s Med 50%
Annual
Precipitation + Soil shrinkage
Xtra Lo Xtra Hi
![Page 22: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Comfort
Construction
Water
Design agenda:
Regional variation + geographic specifics
Existing stock
Low carbon imperative + infrastructure resilience
Robustness/ maintenance
Delight.
Behavioural adaptation
Timing
Scale
Competition, consensus and regulation.
Tactics:
Context:
![Page 23: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
![Page 30: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Water
Water conservation
Drainage
Flooding
Landscape
![Page 33: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Concluding thoughts
Time to start work
Design opportunities
Managing uncertainty and building consensus
Role of regulation
![Page 34: Bill Gething - gci.org.uk Gething - report overview.pdf · CLG Emily Hay DEFRA Will Lockhead British Standards Institution Alan Hall ... Stabilisation Scenario (-4%/ yr from 2016)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050206/5f594f36e090724c5d77cb1f/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)