What Will Tomorrow Look Like

In Central Iowa?

William Fulton

January 12, 2012

What Will Tomorrow Look

Like In Central Iowa?

• Lots of growth drivers are changing

• Long-term economic competitiveness requires a different

approach to growth

• Taxpayer money will be tight in the future

• A plan focused on “sustainability” (economic as well

as environmental) can help

Central Iowa is Growing and Changing

• Central Iowa Is Growing At California Levels

• Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly

• Boomers and Millennials Will Drive the Markets

Central Iowa Is Growing Faster Than California

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Polk Dallas Warren Madison

County Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010

1990-2000 2000-2010

Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly

(5,000)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

City Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010

1990-2000 2000-2010

Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly

All of Iowa Is Developing Land At

A Much Faster Rate Than Population Is Being Added

Central Iowa’s Demographics Are Changing

Baby Boomers and Millennials are the two fastest growing demographic segments in America

Des Moines best place for young professionals

Latino population is much larger than state average

All these demographic groups – especially young professionals – are trending away from traditional suburban lifestyle

Baby Boomers and Millennials Will Drive

The Future Housing and Jobs Market

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

Greates Generation Baby Boomers Gen X Millenials

Population

Labor Force

Americans Want More

Walkable, Sustainable

Neighborhoods“Overall, Americans’ ideal communities have a mix

of houses, places to walk, and amenities within an

easy walk or close drive.”

77% of Americans want pedestrian-friendly features.

88% place more value on the quality of the neighborhood than the size of the home.

Millennials Especially Are Trending

Away From Traditional Suburbs

47% would prefer to live in a city or a suburb with a mix

of houses, shops, and businesses.

40% would prefer a rural or a small town.

12% say they would prefer a suburban neighborhood

with houses only.

Americans Value “Sense of Place,”

Whether City, Village, or Rural Town

Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain

Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain

Low-density suburban development rarely pays for itself

Costs are not just infrastructure related but also operations and maintenance

Burden usually falls on taxpayers Low-density development means

higher snowplowing costs to accommodate fewer people.

And As Our Population Ages …

… these fiscal

burdens on the

taxpayers are likely

only to get greater

And Where’s The Money Going To Come From?

Federal Highway Trust Fund is bankrupt

Congress can’t pass transportation bill because nobody

wants to make tough choices

Current options:

Increase the gas tax

Replace/supplement gas tax with something else (VMT tax?)

Pull back so that federal funds cover only National Highway System.

Gas Tax Losing Purchasing Power

$-

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.45

1993 2011

Effective Gas Tax Rate (1993 Dollars)

Federal Gas Tax State Gas Tax

Maybe we need to look at different solutions!

Compact development lowers costs at the

neighborhood/project level

Charlotte, NC: Case Study of Fire Station Coverage and Annual Costs

Source: City of Charlotte

How a Tomorrow Plan

Helped Another Region

Sacramento

• Not a latte-guzzling

coastal metropolis

• State capital in

agricultural area

• Low (comparatively)

housing prices

• Growing rapidly in

population

Prosperity?

New urbanized land:661 square miles

VMT:47.2 per HH per day

Mode:Car: 93.7%Transit 0.8% Walk: 5.5%

Prosperity?

New urbanized land:304 square miles

VMT:34.9 per HH per day

Mode:Car: 83.9%Transit 3.3% Walk: 12.9%

All This Sounds Good. What Do We Do?

• Use these analytical tools to be aware of the regional

consequences

• You all have to work together on environmental and

infrastructure issues at the regional level anyway

• Make sure that what you are doing locally makes sense

for you locally

Good Luck

With Tomorrow! You’ve got some great

advantages here

You have to a lot of work together in order to remain competitive worldwide.

You don’t your tax revenue eaten up to service low-density sprawl

You have to work together to get all this done

Smart Growth America is the only national organization dedicated to researching, advocating for and leading coalitions to bring smart growth practices to more communities nationwide.

www.smartgrowthamerica.org

1707 L St. NW Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036 | 202-207-3355