Big Data & Big Trends -...
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Big Data & Big Trends
Yerevan, November 14, 2018@wolfgangfengler
#chainpoint18
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Already today, there is more data than grains of sand
2010 2015
Percentage of uncertain data
Sensors & Devices
VoIP
Enterprise Data
Social Media
1023
The Emergence of Big Data: from zero to 100 sextillion in five years
Source: IBM
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Big Shifts
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Number of people in the world
7,6b
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Population growth is slowing down rapidly
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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Incr
ease
in th
e w
orl
d’s
po
pu
lati
on
(per
cen
t) 1968
2018
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Despite the recent UN projections, we may not reach 10 billion …
IIASA Medium Scenario
UN Median (2015)
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Po
pu
lati
on
in B
illio
ns
Post Secondary
Upper Secondary
Lower Secondary
Primary
Incomp. Primary
No Education
Pop < 15 yrs
Source: IASA projections
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… because education reduces fertility
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Ethiopia 2011 Kenya 2008 Bolivia 2008 Burkina Faso2010
Niger 2012 Nigeria 2013 Pakistan 2012 Egypt 2014 Indonesia2012
Maldives2009
Tota
l Fe
rtil
ity
Rat
eNo education
Primary
Secondary or higher
Source: IASA calculations based on DHS
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Shift 1. From Young to Old
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
prop
orti
on (
%)
15-64 yo
0-14 yo
65+ yo
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Shift 2. From rural to urbanExample: Kenya
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Shift 3. From Europe to Africa
Africa
Asia
Europe
Americas
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% o
f glo
ba
l po
pula
tio
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Shift 4. From low to high education
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illio
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No Education Primary Secondary Post Secondary
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Shift 5. From poor to Middle Class
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0 $1.90
N
GDP growth per capita
Modelling income in real-time
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3.2BN
3.6BN
600M+ Poor
Vulnerable
Middle Class Upper Class200M
1/sec 5/sec 0.5/sec
How many people are entering theglobal Middle Class each second?
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3.8 BN = 3.8 BN
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20182028
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Thank you
@wolfgangfengler