Big CInema Data: Analysing global cinema showtimes
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Looking at cinema exhibition and distribution at an international scale requires data beyond broad aggregates, it requires data that is specific to individual films and cinema venues in order to appreciate the intricate temporal and geographic aspects of flow and patterns. The Kinomatics Project has tracked the global flow of individual film screenings (down to date and time) for over 54,000 films for 30,000 venues throughout 48 countries internationally. This presentation will highlight the importance of global scale analysis and data through three case studies. The first will track the spatial and temporal relationships of The Hobbit: an unexpected journey, highlighting the complexities of international cinema enterprises and the subtleties of contemporary releasing strategies. The second explores the relationship between remittance flows and the movement of film around the globe with a focus on Bollywood films. The thrid test dyadic relationships between countries. This presentation will introduce some methods for analysing and visualising data used in the three case studies.
Transcript of Big CInema Data: Analysing global cinema showtimes
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
THE KINOMATICS PROJECT: AN ASSESSMENT OF USING “SMALL” DATA TO SUPPORT “BIG” DATA
COLIN ARROWSMITH (RMIT UNIVERSITY), ALWYN DAVIDSON, BRONWYN COATE, AND DEB VERHOEVEN (DEAKIN UNIVERSITY)
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
CONTENTS
• Indian remittances study• Dyadic relationship analysis• The spread of HFR in The Hobbit
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
GLOBAL EXCHANGE OF IDEAS AND INFORMATION
Appadurai’s 5 Scapes
Mediascape Technoscape
Ethnoscape Ideoscape
Financescape
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
INDIAN REMITTANCES
Ethnoscape+
Financescape
Understand factors concerned with the diffusion of film across cinemas around the globe in order to better understand the factors that drive diffusion and diversity in domestic film markets
Using India as a case study we explore the relationship between remittance flows and the movement of film around the globe
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
INDIAN REMITTANCES
• Global showtime database• Remittance values from World
Bank• Migration figures from World
Bank• Population from World Bank• GDP from World Bank• Hofstede’s cultural dimensions
DATA
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
INDIAN REMITTANCES
Unite
d Ar
ab E
mira
tes
UK
Sing
apor
e
Colom
bia
Thailand USA
New Z
ealand
Nethe
rland
s
Norway
Ireland
Japa
n
Finl
and
Ukraine
Luxe
mbo
urg
Portug
al
Viet
nam
Italy
Chin
aCh
ile
Braz
il0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Percent Indian showtimesRemittances sent to India per capita
Perc
ent
India
n s
how
tim
es R
em
ittance
s sent to
India
per ca
pita
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INDIAN REMITTANCES
• The level of remittances are a statistically significant determinant of the volume of screenings of Indian film
• The model predicts that on average if remittances to India increase by 1% then the screening of Indian films in that country will increase by just over 3%
• Exceptions to the rule:• South Africa – co-productions• Austria – mountain landscapes
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INDIAN REMITTANCES
• Number of screenings is a stronger indicator than box office
• Level of remittances is the best indicator (from the variables included in the model) to indicate showtimes – more so than migration
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DYADIC RELATIONSHIPS
Mediascape+
Ethnoscape
To explore the relationship between countries in the exchange of movies and the measure of the reciprocal nature of these relationships
Dyadic relationships: the inter-relationship between two things of similar kind. A strong reciprocal dyadic relationship is one that has an equal exchange between 2 nodes
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
DYADIC RELATIONSHIPS
ARG
AUS
BEL
BGR
BRA
CAN
CHE
CHLCH
NCO
LDEU GBR ES
PFI
NFR
AGRC
HKG IDN
IND
IRE
ISR
ITA
JPN
KOR
LUXMEX NLD
NORNZL PE
RPH
LPO
LPO
RSG
PSW
ETH
ATW
NUAE UKR USA VE
NVN
MZA
F0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percentage of US Showtimes
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
DYADIC RELATIONSHIPS
• Global showtime database• Country of Origin and Production
Year - IMDb
DATA
• Determine the number of movies and showtimes produced by each country in 2012/2013 and calculate the number of movies/showtimes exhibited by each country of origin in each of the receiving countries in 2013
• Iterative methodology
METHOD
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DYADIC RELATIONSHIPS
• Dyadic Analysis:
METHOD
“So, the dyad factor D will be minimum (0) when the inter-market reciprocity is lowest, and it will be maximum (1) when
the inter-market reciprocity is equal.”
where M12 and M21 are the market transfers in both directions from two markets/countries of interest
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
DYADIC RELATIONSHIPSPercentage of Showtimes per Country
ARG AUS BEL BGR BRA CAN CHE CHL CHN COL
Country of Origin
ARG 2.036301 0.001838 0.000838 0 0.084205 0.000202 0.010712 0.096569 0 0.543741
AUS 1.525619 2.657318 1.213982 2.253801 1.538368 2.114579 1.45467 1.437206 1.503147 1.601627
BEL 0.45283 0.5563 5.469519 0 0.213389 0.274892 1.22801 0.030401 0.000562 0.457077
BGR 0 0.0001 0 0.520461 0.000132 0.202164 0.00073 0.000397 0.002448 0
BRA 0.083999 0.001069 0.007963 0 12.47642 0.018681 0.028485 0 0 0.034368
CAN 2.630982 2.760086 2.608605 2.17216 2.552039 5.397376 2.330637 2.602391 1.285552 3.477882
CHE 0.00139 0.043867 0.158637 0 0.051885 0.009022 4.911795 0.000199 0 0
CHL 0.003648 0.002138 0.00021 0.121441 0.002578 0.003875 0.004382 3.978596 7.2E-05 0.000849
CHN 0.005907 0.083924 0.011526 0 0.001718 0.018854 0.03944 0.002981 3.816237 0
COL 0.016418 6.68E-05 0.000629 0 0.002941 0.000116 0.000974 0.000994 0 1.717779
DEU 1.157048 0.792839 3.086611 1.105725 1.677697 0.85047 6.201643 1.837788 0.880113 1.17669
GBR 4.5726 9.268073 5.360129 4.189713 3.376975 7.6935 7.037439 3.452236 0.620413 5.134561
ESP 0.952828 1.008229 1.369685 1.451168 0.419507 0.298546 0.987715 1.697505 0.756318 2.362503
FIN 0.224634 0.0001 0.23827 0 0.074688 0.352276 0.204749 0.280765 0.007661 0.160598
FRA 1.613961 2.611146 8.171588 2.801817 1.864251 2.187162 6.445833 1.013377 1.121208 1.898531
GRC 0.000261 0.001036 0.00461 0 0.000463 0.000116 0.024589 0 0 0.000212
HKG 0.082175 0.081953 0.126155 0 0.002479 0.002834 0 0.069347 1.679055 0
IDN 0.180767 0.001971 0.00021 0 3.3E-05 0.000202 0.000487 0.156974 0 0
IND 0.25026 1.533826 1.230118 1.435351 0.411212 1.881589 0.968238 0.000795 0.001397 0.957327
IRE 0.2037 0.003809 0.240365 0 0.269206 0.007605 0.068899 0.132931 0 0.140337
ISR 0.091904 0.009822 0.233869 0 0.099407 0.04089 0.442122 0.00159 0 0.000106
ITA 0.238011 0.766111 1.436744 1.766507 0.335467 0.513058 1.212672 0.335209 0 0.449864
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DYADIC RELATIONSHIPSNumber of movies % per Country
country of
origin
ARG AUS BEL BGR BRA CAN CHE CHL CHN COL DEU
ARG 79.16667 2.604167 1.5625 0 10.41667 2.604167 6.770833 7.291667 0 5.208333 5.729167
AUS 2.575107 32.18884 3.862661 2.145923 4.72103 14.59227 7.725322 2.145923 1.287554 2.575107 12.44635
BEL 5.673759 11.34752 57.44681 0 15.60284 19.14894 21.98582 4.964539 0.70922 5.673759 22.69504
BGR 25 37.5 31.25 12.5 37.5 87.5 31.25 12.5 0 25 62.5
BRA 7.586207 3.448276 1.37931 0 82.06897 1.37931 3.448276 0 0 5.517241 4.827586
CAN 7.296137 10.72961 6.223176 2.145923 9.656652 55.79399 9.656652 5.150215 2.7897 6.223176 11.58798
CHE 6.504065 5.691057 8.943089 0 12.19512 8.943089 67.47967 0.813008 0 0 26.01626
CHL 18.75 2.083333 2.083333 2.083333 16.66667 4.166667 6.25 54.16667 2.083333 8.333333 14.58333
CHN 3.225806 8.602151 2.150538 0 7.526882 16.12903 11.82796 6.451613 29.03226 0 11.82796
COL 27.77778 2.777778 8.333333 0 13.88889 5.555556 5.555556 8.333333 0 55.55556 5.555556
DEU 6.046512 9.767442 9.302326 0.930233 13.25581 11.86047 18.60465 3.488372 0.930233 4.418605 63.72093
ENG 7.236842 17.89474 9.210526 2.631579 9.473684 21.57895 12.89474 6.578947 2.5 5.657895 18.02632
ESP 20.61404 4.385965 3.947368 1.315789 9.649123 4.824561 5.263158 6.578947 0.438596 12.2807 8.333333
FIN 7.692308 5.769231 11.53846 0 11.53846 13.46154 7.692308 3.846154 1.923077 7.692308 21.15385
FRA 8.576642 11.31387 20.80292 1.277372 16.60584 19.34307 23.54015 4.379562 1.094891 5.291971 18.79562
GRC 3.636364 10.90909 5.454545 0 12.72727 5.454545 3.636364 0 0 1.818182 9.090909
HKG 2.631579 10.52632 5.263158 0 7.894737 10.52632 0 5.263158 21.05263 0 18.42105
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DYADIC RELATIONSHIPS
• Combine the different indicators of exhibition• Percentage of screenings• Percentage of movies• Number of movies produced by each country
METHOD
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
DYADIC RELATIONSHIPS
• Strong Dyadic Relationship Between• Canada and France; Hong Kong and China; Colombia
and Chile; Singapore and Taiwan• Canada and Australia; Germany and France; Finland and
USA; Italy and Belgium; Brazil and Argentina; USA and New Zealand
MAIN FINDINGS
• Possible Influences• Cultural similarities• Language• Geography/Borders
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THE HOBBIT IN HFR
Technoscape+
Mediascape
Purpose: to examine changing technology (technoscape) of film media at a global scale (mediascape)
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TECHNOLOGIES USED
• Trilogy using different technologies (3D and HFR)
• 2D• 3D• IMAX• IMAX 3D• HFR 3D
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HOBBIT 1
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HOBBIT 2
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BASIC STATISTICS
• Total screenings for 48 countries• The Hobbit 1 (all)
1,840,093• The Hobbit 1 (HFR)
87,088
• The Hobbit 2 (all) 1,733,138
• The Hobbit 2 (HFR)153,252
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GLOBAL SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 1 AND 2
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 530
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
Hobbit1Hobbit1HFRHobbit2Hobbit2HFR
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
GLOBAL SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 1 AND 2 (log scale)
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 531
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
Hobbit1Hobbit1HFRHobbit2Hobbit2HFR
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 1 BY REGION
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
AustralasiaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth AmericaAsia
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 1 BY REGION (Log scale)
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
AustralasiaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth AmericaAsia
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SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 1 BY REGION
Australian screenings of The Hobbit
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJuly
August
September
October
November
December
100000 100000
100000
100000
10000 10000
10000
10000
1000 1000
1000
1000
100 100
100
100
10 10
10
10
Europe
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJuly
August
September
October
November
December
1000000 1000000
1000000
1000000
100000 100000
100000
100000
10000 10000
10000
10000
1000 1000
1000
1000
100 100
100
100
10 10
10
10
North America (incl Mexico)
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJuly
August
September
October
November
December
1000000 1000000
1000000
1000000
100000 100000
100000
100000
10000 10000
10000
10000
1000 1000
1000
1000
100 100
100
100
10 10
10
10
South America
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJuly
August
September
October
November
December
100000 100000
100000
100000
10000 10000
10000
10000
1000 1000
1000
1000
100 100
100
100
10 10
10
10
Asia (inc Middle East)
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJuly
August
September
October
November
December
100000 100000
100000
100000
10000 10000
10000
10000
1000 1000
1000
1000
100 100
100
100
10 10
10
10
Total screenings of "The Hobbit"
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJuly
August
September
October
November
December
10000000 10000000
10000000
10000000
1000000 1000000
1000000
1000000
100000 100000
100000
100000
10000 10000
10000
10000
1000 1000
1000
1000
100 100
100
100
10 10
10
10
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 2 BY REGION
week0
week1
week2
week3
week4
week5
week6
week7
week8
week9
week1
0
week1
1
week1
2
week4
7
week4
8
week4
9
week5
0
week5
1
week5
20
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
AustralasiaAsiaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth America
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 2 BY REGION (Log scale)
week0
week1
week2
week3
week4
week5
week6
week7
week8
week9
week1
0
week1
1
week1
2
week4
7
week4
8
week4
9
week5
0
week5
1
week5
21
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
AustralasiaAsiaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth America
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HOBBIT 2 SCREENINGS (week 51 – 28 December 2013)
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HOBBIT 2 SCREENINGS (week 8 – 1 March 2014)
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HOBBIT 2 “LANDSCAPE”
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HOBBIT 1 VENUES
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HOBBIT 2 VENUES
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PERCENT CHANGE IN VENUE NUMBERS FROM HOBBIT 1 AND HOBBIT 2 IN HFR
PHL C
ount
THA C
ount
NLD C
ount
KOR Cou
nt
FRA C
ount
SGP
Count
WAL C
ount
MEX C
ount
IDN C
ount
POR C
ount
UKR Cou
nt
VNM Cou
nt
NZL Cou
nt
AUT Cou
nt
SWE
Count
IRE
Count
CAN Cou
nt
ARG Cou
nt
DEU C
ount
CHE Cou
nt
BGR Cou
nt
BEL C
ount
ZAF Cou
nt
NOR Cou
nt-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B
PERCENT CHANGE IN VENUE NUMBERS FROM HOBBIT 1 AND HOBBIT 2 IN HFR
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HOBBIT 1 HFR
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HOBBIT 1 HFR
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HOBBIT 2 HFR
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HOBBIT 2 HFR
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HOBBIT 1 HFR VENUE STANDARD ELLIPSES (68% and 95%)
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HOBBIT 2 HFR VENUE STANDARD ELLIPSES (68% and 95%)
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THE HOBBIT IN HFR
• Initial screening for Hobbit 1 > Hobbit 2
• Total screenings for Hobbit 2 likely to exceed that for Hobbit 1
• Hobbit 2 exhibits bi-modal distribution (in Asian region)
• Distinct geographic differences in screening of Hobbit 1 in HFR and Hobbit 2 in HFR
CONCLUSIONS
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WHERE TO FROM HERE?
• Further analysis of The Hobbit (3D)
• Comparison with micro-scale survey of Adelaide’s “Wallis” cinemas
• Explore “ethnoscapes” through Hofstede’s theoretical framework (cultural dimensions)
• The change in dyadic relationships over time
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• Thanks are extended to the Australian Research Council (ARC) for providing the funding (DP120101940) for this project
• Thanks to Stuart Palmer for Dyadic Analysis support
