BIG Call - April 2012
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Transcript of BIG Call - April 2012
400 W. Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 200, Worthington, OH, 43085 614-846-0146 [email protected]
PAM E L A G O O D F E L L O W C O N S U M E R I N S I G H T S D I R E C T O R , B I G I N S I G H T ™
S TAC I E S E V E R S
C L I E N T S E R V I C E S M AN A G E R , B I G I N S I G H T ™
The BIG Call April 2012
© 2012, Prosper®
April 2012 Consumer Survey
Disclaimer: BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp. Services are delivered by Prosper and/or a Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”). Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing the statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.
This report is derived from the following studies:
• BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, April 2012 (N = 8724, respondents surveyed 4/3 – 4/10/12)
• BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey Trends, April 2007 – April 2012
April 2012 Results • Consumer Confidence • Employment Outlook • Practical Purchasing • Financial Forecast
Decreasing Overall Spending • 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans
Pain at the Pump
© 2012, Prosper®
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy Adults 18+
Consumer Confidence
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12
Highlights: • Springing sentiment stalls in April
Ends five month streak of continuous improvement
• Remains elevated from Apr-11 • Falls well below pre-downturn
Apr-07 (46.5%)
28.6%
20.6%
34.8%
34.7%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
© 2012, Prosper®
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy Adults 18+
Consumer Confidence
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 07-12
28.6%
20.6%
34.8%
34.7%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
46.5
%
34.7
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Mar-12 Apr-12
25%
decline from
Apr-07
© 2012, Prosper®
27.6% 28.5% 23.9% 24.0%
48.6% 51.7% 53.2% 53.7%
23.8% 19.8%
22.9% 22.3%
8.0%
8.2%
8.4%
8.6%
8.8%
9.0%
9.2%
9.4%
9.6%
9.8%
10.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-10 Apr-11 Mar-12 Apr-12
More Same Fewer U.S. Unemployment Rate*
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 10-12
Employment Outlook
Regarding the U.S. employment environment, over the next 6 months, do you think that there will be more, the same, or fewer layoffs than at present? Adults 18+
* U.S. Unemployment Rate for the previous month for each corresponding MMM-YY, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
8.3%
8.9%
8.2%
9.8%*
Highlights: • One in four expecting “more”
layoffs over the next six months Slightly lower compared to
Apr-11 and Apr-10 • Those calling for “fewer”
remains stagnant Optimism fails to appear
even as Unemployment Rate declines
• Employment mantra = more of the “same.”
• Security among the employed Just 3.1% fear becoming
laid off U
.S. U
nem
ploy
men
t Rat
e*
Layo
ff Pr
edic
tions
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12
Practical Purchasing
In the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes? Adults 18+
Highlights: • Practicality remains priority
for majority Slipped from March, but
remains elevated from Apr-10, Apr-11
• 58.6% are focused on necessities In range of recession-era
Apr-09 (59.5%) and Apr-10 (59.4%)
40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%
I have become more practical and realistic in my purchasesI focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12
Financial Forecast
Which of the following financial steps are you planning to take in the next 3 months? Adults 18+
Highlights: • Summer sales drought?
Financial plans become more conservative compared to Apr-11
• Paying down debt takes backseat to decreasing spending, while increasing savings holds strong
• Decreasing overall spending nears the rare 40% territory…
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Pay down debt
Increase savings
Pay with cash more often
Decrease overall spending
Apr-11 Mar-12 Apr-12
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JAN-05 - APR-12; Energy Information Administration (All Grades, All Formulations)
Decreasing Overall Spending
Highlights: • Decreasing overall
spending has only approached 40% THREE times in the past seven years: Hurricane Katrina Summer ‘08 Gas
Price Highs Post-Holiday ’08
• Potential Culprits: Pain at the Pump Increasing Prices Capitol Hill?
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Jan-
05M
aySe
pJa
n-06
May
Sep
Jan-
07M
aySe
pJa
n-08
May
Sep
Jan-
09M
aySe
pJa
n-10
May
Sep
Jan-
11M
aySe
pJa
n-12
Plan to Decrease Spending Ave. Gas Price/Gal
Hurricane Katrina Summer
'08 Gas $ High
Post-Holiday '08
% P
lann
ing
to D
ecre
ase
Ove
rall
Spen
ding
Aver
age
$/G
al G
asol
ine
NEW Blog Why are Shoppers so Glum about Spending? CLICK to View
© 2012, Prosper®
Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 Apr-10 Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 Apr-10
Children’s flat up up Toys/Games down up up
Women’s Dress down up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up flat
Women’s Casual flat up up Electronics down up up
Men’s Dress flat up up Groceries down up down
Men’s Casual up up up Home Improvement down up down
Shoes down up up Lawn & Garden down up down
HBC flat up up Home Furniture down up up
Dining Out down up down Home Décor down up up
Sporting Goods down up flat Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up
Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (Apr-12 compared to Mar-12, Apr-11, and Apr-10)
Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Mar-12) or years (Apr-11, Apr-10). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.
BIG Forward Look: 90 Day Spending
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 10-12
Over the next 90 days (April, May and June), do you plan on spending more, the same or less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year? Adults 18+
© 2012, Prosper®
Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 Apr-10 Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 Apr-10
Children’s flat up up Toys/Games down up up
Women’s Dress down up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up flat
Women’s Casual flat up up Electronics down up up
Men’s Dress flat up up Groceries down up down
Men’s Casual up up up Home Improvement down up down
Shoes down up up Lawn & Garden down up down
HBC flat up up Home Furniture down up up
Dining Out down up down Home Décor down up up
Sporting Goods down up flat Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up
Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (Apr-12 compared to Mar-12, Apr-11, and Apr-10)
Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Mar-12) or years (Apr-11, Apr-10). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.
BIG Forward Look: 90 Day Spending
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 10-12
Over the next 90 days (April, May and June), do you plan on spending more, the same or less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year? Adults 18+
All categories remain DOWN from
pre-downturn April 2007
© 2012, Prosper®
Impacted by Fluctuating Gas Prices vs. Actual Gas Prices Adults 18+
Pain at the Pump
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 07-12; Energy Information Association (eia.doe.gov)
73.3%
82.2%
86.0%
74.0%70.0%
79.3%
76.3%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
Gas Price (U.S. All Grades Avg for Week) Adults 18+: Impacted by Gas Prices
Apr-12 = 76.3%; $4.00/gal Mar-12 = 76.7%; $3.85/gal Apr-11 = 79.3%; $3.74/gal
Highest Reading: Jun-08 = 86.0%
$4.03/gal
© 2012, Prosper®
Driving Less as a Result of Fluctuating Gas Prices vs. Actual Gas Prices Adults 18+
Pain at the Pump
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 07-12; Energy Information Association (eia.doe.gov)
Apr-12 = 50.9%; $4.00/gal Mar-12 = 50.9%; $3.85/gal Feb-12 = 40.3%; $3.54/gal
Expected Price by End of Month:
Feb-12 = $3.69 Mar-12 = $4.08 Apr-12 = $4.17
36.7%
45.7%
57.2%
38.6%
39.8%
49.5%
50.9%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
Gas Price (U.S. All Grades Avg for Week) Adults 18+: Driving Less Often
© 2012, Prosper®
Expect Gas Prices to be MORE by the End of the Month Adults 18+
Pain at the Pump
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%81.8%
74.2%
45.7%
34.8%
51.3%46.1%
32.9%
45.9% 45.0%
61.3% 63.3%
76.9%74.2%
© 2012, Prosper®
Changes in Fill-Up Habits as a Result of Fluctuating Gas Prices Adults 18+
Pain at the Pump
Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1
Filling up less often by letting my tank run close to Empty
36.7%
Filling up more often so that the cost isn’t as high each time I
go to the pump 23.3%
Filling up as soon as I see prices drop even
if I don’t need gas
29.1%
© 2012, Prosper®
Are you spending less on groceries because of gas prices in any of the following ways? Top Responses for Adults 18+
Pain at the Pump
Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Usingcoupons more
often
Onlypurchasing
the products Ineed (noimpulse
purchases)
Buying morestore brandand generic
products
Switching todifferentbrands
because theyare cheaperor on sale
Making a listand only
buying theproducts on
that list
Stocking upon productsso that I can
shop lessfrequently
Shopping atdiscount
grocers moreoften
47.6%44.3%
38.7%35.2% 35.1%
30.6% 29.4%
© 2012, Prosper®
Are you spending less on clothing/shoes/accessories because of gas prices in any of the following ways? Top Responses for Adults 18+
Pain at the Pump
Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Only buyingclothing, shoes,and accessories
on sale
Shopping lessfrequently
Shopping atdiscount stores
more often
Makingclothing, shoes,and accessoriesa smaller part of
my budget
Shopping atmalls less often
Only buyingclothing, shoes,and accessorieswhen I have a
coupon
39.8%38.0%
33.4%30.3%
24.2%
11.9%
© 2012, Prosper®
Using Smartphone Apps to Research Gas Prices Top Responses for Adults 18+
Pain at the Pump
Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1
20.1%
45.0%
34.9% Yes
No
I do not have aSmartphone
NEW! Pain at the Pump: Running on Empty
Read the Blog
© 2012, Prosper®
BIG
Con
sum
er
Blo
g Why Are Shoppers So Glum About Spending? view
Consumer Buzz: Women’s Clothing view
Battle of the Sexes: Keeping Up with the (Mobile) Joneses view
Generation Gap: Webaholics Anonymous view
The Price of a Woman’s Face view
Easter Will Be Hoppin’ for Parents this Year view
Up, Up, and Away: Consumers Talk Rising Prices view
Pain at the Pump: Running on Empty view
© 2012, Prosper®
Con
tact
400 W. Wilson Bridge Road Suite 200 Worthington, OH 43085 Ph: 614-846-0146 [email protected] for complimentary insights, visit: www.BIGinsight.com