BIG Call - April 2012

19
400 W. Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 200, Worthington, OH, 43085 614-846-0146 [email protected] PAMELA GOODFELLOW CONSUMER INSIGHTS DIRECTOR, BIGINSIGHT™ STACIE SEVERS CLIENT SERVICES MANAGER, BIGINSIGHT™ The BIG Call April 2012

Transcript of BIG Call - April 2012

Page 1: BIG Call - April 2012

400 W. Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 200, Worthington, OH, 43085 614-846-0146 [email protected]

PAM E L A G O O D F E L L O W C O N S U M E R I N S I G H T S D I R E C T O R , B I G I N S I G H T ™

S TAC I E S E V E R S

C L I E N T S E R V I C E S M AN A G E R , B I G I N S I G H T ™

The BIG Call April 2012

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© 2012, Prosper®

April 2012 Consumer Survey

Disclaimer: BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp. Services are delivered by Prosper and/or a Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”). Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing the statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.

This report is derived from the following studies:

• BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, April 2012 (N = 8724, respondents surveyed 4/3 – 4/10/12)

• BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey Trends, April 2007 – April 2012

April 2012 Results • Consumer Confidence • Employment Outlook • Practical Purchasing • Financial Forecast

Decreasing Overall Spending • 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans

Pain at the Pump

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© 2012, Prosper®

Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy Adults 18+

Consumer Confidence

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12

Highlights: • Springing sentiment stalls in April

Ends five month streak of continuous improvement

• Remains elevated from Apr-11 • Falls well below pre-downturn

Apr-07 (46.5%)

28.6%

20.6%

34.8%

34.7%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

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Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy Adults 18+

Consumer Confidence

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 07-12

28.6%

20.6%

34.8%

34.7%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

46.5

%

34.7

%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Mar-12 Apr-12

25%

decline from

Apr-07

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27.6% 28.5% 23.9% 24.0%

48.6% 51.7% 53.2% 53.7%

23.8% 19.8%

22.9% 22.3%

8.0%

8.2%

8.4%

8.6%

8.8%

9.0%

9.2%

9.4%

9.6%

9.8%

10.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-10 Apr-11 Mar-12 Apr-12

More Same Fewer U.S. Unemployment Rate*

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 10-12

Employment Outlook

Regarding the U.S. employment environment, over the next 6 months, do you think that there will be more, the same, or fewer layoffs than at present? Adults 18+

* U.S. Unemployment Rate for the previous month for each corresponding MMM-YY, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

8.3%

8.9%

8.2%

9.8%*

Highlights: • One in four expecting “more”

layoffs over the next six months Slightly lower compared to

Apr-11 and Apr-10 • Those calling for “fewer”

remains stagnant Optimism fails to appear

even as Unemployment Rate declines

• Employment mantra = more of the “same.”

• Security among the employed Just 3.1% fear becoming

laid off U

.S. U

nem

ploy

men

t Rat

e*

Layo

ff Pr

edic

tions

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© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12

Practical Purchasing

In the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes? Adults 18+

Highlights: • Practicality remains priority

for majority Slipped from March, but

remains elevated from Apr-10, Apr-11

• 58.6% are focused on necessities In range of recession-era

Apr-09 (59.5%) and Apr-10 (59.4%)

40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%

I have become more practical and realistic in my purchasesI focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT

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© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12

Financial Forecast

Which of the following financial steps are you planning to take in the next 3 months? Adults 18+

Highlights: • Summer sales drought?

Financial plans become more conservative compared to Apr-11

• Paying down debt takes backseat to decreasing spending, while increasing savings holds strong

• Decreasing overall spending nears the rare 40% territory…

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Pay down debt

Increase savings

Pay with cash more often

Decrease overall spending

Apr-11 Mar-12 Apr-12

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© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JAN-05 - APR-12; Energy Information Administration (All Grades, All Formulations)

Decreasing Overall Spending

Highlights: • Decreasing overall

spending has only approached 40% THREE times in the past seven years: Hurricane Katrina Summer ‘08 Gas

Price Highs Post-Holiday ’08

• Potential Culprits: Pain at the Pump Increasing Prices Capitol Hill?

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Jan-

05M

aySe

pJa

n-06

May

Sep

Jan-

07M

aySe

pJa

n-08

May

Sep

Jan-

09M

aySe

pJa

n-10

May

Sep

Jan-

11M

aySe

pJa

n-12

Plan to Decrease Spending Ave. Gas Price/Gal

Hurricane Katrina Summer

'08 Gas $ High

Post-Holiday '08

% P

lann

ing

to D

ecre

ase

Ove

rall

Spen

ding

Aver

age

$/G

al G

asol

ine

NEW Blog Why are Shoppers so Glum about Spending? CLICK to View

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Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 Apr-10 Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 Apr-10

Children’s flat up up Toys/Games down up up

Women’s Dress down up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up flat

Women’s Casual flat up up Electronics down up up

Men’s Dress flat up up Groceries down up down

Men’s Casual up up up Home Improvement down up down

Shoes down up up Lawn & Garden down up down

HBC flat up up Home Furniture down up up

Dining Out down up down Home Décor down up up

Sporting Goods down up flat Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up

Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (Apr-12 compared to Mar-12, Apr-11, and Apr-10)

Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Mar-12) or years (Apr-11, Apr-10). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.

BIG Forward Look: 90 Day Spending

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 10-12

Over the next 90 days (April, May and June), do you plan on spending more, the same or less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year? Adults 18+

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Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 Apr-10 Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 Apr-10

Children’s flat up up Toys/Games down up up

Women’s Dress down up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up flat

Women’s Casual flat up up Electronics down up up

Men’s Dress flat up up Groceries down up down

Men’s Casual up up up Home Improvement down up down

Shoes down up up Lawn & Garden down up down

HBC flat up up Home Furniture down up up

Dining Out down up down Home Décor down up up

Sporting Goods down up flat Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up

Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (Apr-12 compared to Mar-12, Apr-11, and Apr-10)

Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Mar-12) or years (Apr-11, Apr-10). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.

BIG Forward Look: 90 Day Spending

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 10-12

Over the next 90 days (April, May and June), do you plan on spending more, the same or less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year? Adults 18+

All categories remain DOWN from

pre-downturn April 2007

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Impacted by Fluctuating Gas Prices vs. Actual Gas Prices Adults 18+

Pain at the Pump

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 07-12; Energy Information Association (eia.doe.gov)

73.3%

82.2%

86.0%

74.0%70.0%

79.3%

76.3%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

Gas Price (U.S. All Grades Avg for Week) Adults 18+: Impacted by Gas Prices

Apr-12 = 76.3%; $4.00/gal Mar-12 = 76.7%; $3.85/gal Apr-11 = 79.3%; $3.74/gal

Highest Reading: Jun-08 = 86.0%

$4.03/gal

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Driving Less as a Result of Fluctuating Gas Prices vs. Actual Gas Prices Adults 18+

Pain at the Pump

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 07-12; Energy Information Association (eia.doe.gov)

Apr-12 = 50.9%; $4.00/gal Mar-12 = 50.9%; $3.85/gal Feb-12 = 40.3%; $3.54/gal

Expected Price by End of Month:

Feb-12 = $3.69 Mar-12 = $4.08 Apr-12 = $4.17

36.7%

45.7%

57.2%

38.6%

39.8%

49.5%

50.9%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

Gas Price (U.S. All Grades Avg for Week) Adults 18+: Driving Less Often

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Expect Gas Prices to be MORE by the End of the Month Adults 18+

Pain at the Pump

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%81.8%

74.2%

45.7%

34.8%

51.3%46.1%

32.9%

45.9% 45.0%

61.3% 63.3%

76.9%74.2%

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Changes in Fill-Up Habits as a Result of Fluctuating Gas Prices Adults 18+

Pain at the Pump

Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1

Filling up less often by letting my tank run close to Empty

36.7%

Filling up more often so that the cost isn’t as high each time I

go to the pump 23.3%

Filling up as soon as I see prices drop even

if I don’t need gas

29.1%

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Are you spending less on groceries because of gas prices in any of the following ways? Top Responses for Adults 18+

Pain at the Pump

Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Usingcoupons more

often

Onlypurchasing

the products Ineed (noimpulse

purchases)

Buying morestore brandand generic

products

Switching todifferentbrands

because theyare cheaperor on sale

Making a listand only

buying theproducts on

that list

Stocking upon productsso that I can

shop lessfrequently

Shopping atdiscount

grocers moreoften

47.6%44.3%

38.7%35.2% 35.1%

30.6% 29.4%

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Are you spending less on clothing/shoes/accessories because of gas prices in any of the following ways? Top Responses for Adults 18+

Pain at the Pump

Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Only buyingclothing, shoes,and accessories

on sale

Shopping lessfrequently

Shopping atdiscount stores

more often

Makingclothing, shoes,and accessoriesa smaller part of

my budget

Shopping atmalls less often

Only buyingclothing, shoes,and accessorieswhen I have a

coupon

39.8%38.0%

33.4%30.3%

24.2%

11.9%

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Using Smartphone Apps to Research Gas Prices Top Responses for Adults 18+

Pain at the Pump

Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1

20.1%

45.0%

34.9% Yes

No

I do not have aSmartphone

NEW! Pain at the Pump: Running on Empty

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