BIEE European Conference 2018 - DIW · 2020. 10. 19. · BIEE European Conference 2018. Prosumage...
Transcript of BIEE European Conference 2018 - DIW · 2020. 10. 19. · BIEE European Conference 2018. Prosumage...
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BIEE European Conference 2018
Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility
Wolf-Peter Schill, Alexander Zerrahn, Michael PahleOxford, September 18, 2018
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Overview
1. Introduction2. The model3. Input data4. Results5. (Preliminary) Conclusions and future research
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility2
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Introduction
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility3
Background: Our article in IAEE’s EEEP (2017)• Qualitative discussion of prosumage from an
economic perspective
• Quantitative illustration of selected system effects• Focusing on battery storage and
different operational strategies
• https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.6.1.wsch• Updated version forthcoming as a book chapter in „Energy Transition – Financing
consumer (co-)ownership in renewables“, Lowitzsch, J. (Edt.), Palgrave Macmillan
Extension: prosumage and sector coupling [work in progress]• People may increase self-consumption also by electric heating or electric mobility
• We look at electric storage heaters and battery-electric vehicles• Evaluation of system effects compared to batteries
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https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.6.1.wsch
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PRO-SUM-AGE und prosumagers
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility4
How we define PRO-SUM-AGE• PROduction of renewable electricity (PV) • ConSUMption of self-generated electricity• StorAGE to temporally align supply and demand
Prosumagers• produce their own renewable (PV) electricity at
times,
• draw electricity from the grid at other times,• feed electricity to the grid at other times,
• and make use of storage (stationary batteries, vehicle batteries, heat storage)
Self-consumption vs self-generation
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Source: own illustration
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Incentives for prosumage in Germany
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility5
Incentives for prosumage through FITs, LCOEs, and household tariffs• Volumetric grid charges and EEG surcharge – but not on self-generation• Strong decline of FIT compared to household tariff (“Socket parity“)We do not explicitly model this kind of incentive
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Source: own illustration
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Pros and cons of prosumage from an economic perspective
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility6
Pros and cons depend on the perspective• Prosumagers and other consumers• Incumbent industry, new industry, service providers• Electricity system / system operators
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Arguments in favor of prosumage
• Consumer preferences• Lower/more stable electricity costs• Participation/acceptance of energy transformation• Activation of private capital• Distribution grid relief
Arguments with ambiguous conclusions
• Transmission grid relief• Flexibility• Driver for sector coupling• Energy efficiency vs. rebound effect• Local and macroeconomics benefits, increased competition• Political economy, path dependency, and policy coordination• Data protection and security
Arguments against prosumage
• Increasing system costs• Distributional impacts
Further reading: EEEP article+ book chapter
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A model-based analysis
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility7
Analysis with an extended version of the DIETER model• Open-source electricity system model: www.diw.de/dieter• Minimization of yearly system costs for dispatch and investment, hourly resolution• Linear program, implemented in GAMS
• Exogenous inputs: cost and capacity data, time series on load and renewables• Endogenous variables: costs, dispatch and investments
Representation of prosumage• Some fraction of electric load and PV is assumed to engage in prosumage• Varying (exogenous) minimum self-consumption restrictions
Options for increasing self-consumption• Stationary Li-ion batteries
• Smart electric thermal storage (SETS)• Battery-electric vehicles (BEV)
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http://www.diw.de/dieter
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Model extension: electric heating and electric mobility
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility8
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Smart electricthermal storage
(SETS)
Battery-electricvehicle
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Assumptions on different prosumage options
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility9
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Electricitysupply
Additional electricitydemand
Investmentcost
Other assumptions
Stationaryli-ion batteries
Only self-generated
No(only losses)
65 €/kW300/kWh
• E/P free• No connection to grid
Smart electricthermal storage
Only self-generated
Yes 350 €/kW(=44 €/kWh)
• E/P 8 hours• No connection to grid• Natural gas back-up assumed• Fluctuating heat demand profile
(Horizon 2020 project)
Battery-electricvehicles
Self-generatedand fromgrid
Yes -(one BEVper household)
• 3.7 kW / 30 kWh• „Free lunch“• No V2G• Time-varying charging availability
profile (based on empirical German data) available in 90% of hours
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Input data
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility10
Scenario for 2030 leaning on EU Reference Scenario• ~53% renewables in electricity consumption• 25% of PV capacity attributed
to prosumage segment, such thatyearly PV generation = yearly load(w/o sector coupling)
• ~3.5 million prosumage systemswith 4.6 kWp each
• Baseline self-consumption ~40-50% • Endogenous investments in prosumage storage or SETS
Further parameter assumptions• System-average PV and load profiles also for prosumers• No changes in generation portfolio
• No change in size of PV systems
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PV non-prosumage; 48.0
PV prosumage; 16.0
Wind offshore; 11.9
Wind onshore; 55.3Bio; 6.9
Other; 0.2
Oil; 1.2
OCGT; 13.5
CCGT; 13.5
Hard coal; 21.8
Lignite; 14.9
Run-of-river; 5.9 PHS; 6.5Installedcapacityin GW
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Results:System costs, related to prosumager households
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility11
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Self-consumption share
Battery Battery + SETS Battery + SETS + BEV
Battery only: system costs increase strongly beyond 70% (log scale)Much lower costs if SETS are used, even more so if BEV are availableWhat are the drivers?
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Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility12
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BEV
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kW p
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Li-ion
Results:Investments into storage (power) per prosumager household
Moderate investments in storage power (4 kWp PV) …
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Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility13
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+ SE
TS
Batt
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+ SE
TS +
BEV
Batt
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BEV
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
kWh
per h
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hold
SETS
Li-ion
Results:Investments into storage (energy) per prosumager household
…but extreme investments into battery energy beyond 70%, “long-term storage” 80-100%: much lower investments required if SETS (and BEV) are available Drivers: differences in investment costs, flexibility, and electricity demand
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Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility14
4 Results:Hourly storage charging level of stationary batteries (100% cases)
Batteries only: seasonal smoothing of variable PV and load profiles
If BEV are available: much more plausible short-term balancing
30%
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110%1
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Battery + SETS + BEV Battery + SETS Battery
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Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility15
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Batt
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Batt
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+ SE
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Batt
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Batt
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Batt
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Batt
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Batt
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BEV
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
BEV
SETS
Li-ion
Direct
To grid
Results:Shares of prosumagers‘ PV generation used for different options
Hardly any battery use if other options are available (except 100%)
BEV crowd out SETS
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Sensitivity: 50% smaller PV installationsSystem costs, related to prosumager households
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility16
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Higher “natural” self-consumption, much lower cost increases
Smaller benefits of SETS and BEV
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Self-consumption share
Battery Battery + SETS Battery + SETS + BEV
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Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility17
4 Sensitivity: 50% smaller PV installationsInvestments into storage (energy) per prosumager household
Much lower energy storage capacity required
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Batt
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Batt
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+ SE
TS
Batt
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+ SE
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BEV
Batt
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Batt
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TS
Batt
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Batt
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Batt
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TS
Batt
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+ SE
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BEV
Batt
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Batt
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+ SE
TS
Batt
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Batt
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Batt
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+ SE
TS
Batt
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+ SE
TS +
BEV
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
kWh
per h
ouse
hold
SETS
Li-ion
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Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility18
4 Sensitivity: 50% smaller PV installationsShares of prosumagers‘ PV generation used for different options
Larger role for direct use of PV electricity
Less use of batteries and SETS
0%
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100%
Batt
ery
Batt
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+ SE
TS
Batt
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+ SE
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Batt
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+ SE
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+ SE
TS +
BEV
Batt
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Batt
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TS +
BEV
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Batt
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+ SE
TS
Batt
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BEV
Batt
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Batt
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Batt
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+ SE
TS +
BEV
Batt
ery
Batt
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+ SE
TS
Batt
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BEV
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
BEV
SETS
Li-ion
Direct
To grid
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Conclusions
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility19
Prosumage: a growing niche• Growth depends on consumer attitudes, technology cost and regulatory framework• Here: no assessment if prosumage is desirable or not
Potential role of electric heating and electric mobility• Batteries can increase self-consumption shares only to some extent
• SETS and BEV facilitate higher (cheaper) self-consumption shares• Despite restrictions related to time profiles of heating and mobility demand
(Preliminary) conclusions• If households aim to achive higher self-consumption, increased sector coupling is
likely (and desirable)
• Policy / regulation: avoid distortions at sector borders
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Future research
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility20
Future research• Exploration of different BEV profiles• Other sector coupling options: hybrid / direct electric heating• Further investigation of alternative PV sizing
• Impacts on overall generation portfolio, RES shares, and CO2 emissions• Explicit consideration of regulatory environment• Prosumage may help to unlock demand-side flexibility potentials only „own“ electricity and no aggregator involved
• Complementary research: desirable amount of various sector coupling strategies in long-term decarbonization scenarios
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Thank you for listening
DIW Berlin — Deutsches Institutfür Wirtschaftsforschung e.V.Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlinwww.diw.de
ContactWolf-Peter [email protected]
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Backup: distribution grid relief
Sour
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illus
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Backup: hourly heat demand profiles
Schill, Zerrahn, Pahle, BIEE Conference 2018, Oxford, September 18Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility23
• Taken from European Horizon 2020 research project RealValue• Derived from dynamic simulations with RWTH building model• 12 building archetypes; here we pick one-family houses with medium energy demand
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BIEE European Conference 2018OverviewIntroductionPRO-SUM-AGE und prosumagersIncentives for prosumage in GermanyPros and cons of prosumage from an economic perspectiveA model-based analysisModel extension: electric heating and electric mobilityAssumptions on different prosumage optionsInput dataResults:�System costs, related to prosumager householdsResults:�Investments into storage (power) per prosumager householdResults:�Investments into storage (energy) per prosumager householdResults:�Hourly storage charging level of stationary batteries (100% cases)Results:�Shares of prosumagers‘ PV generation used for different optionsSensitivity: 50% smaller PV installations�System costs, related to prosumager householdsSensitivity: 50% smaller PV installations�Investments into storage (energy) per prosumager householdSensitivity: 50% smaller PV installations�Shares of prosumagers‘ PV generation used for different optionsConclusionsFuture researchSlide Number 21Backup: distribution grid reliefBackup: hourly heat demand profiles