can bayes' rule be justified by cognitive rationality principles - PSE
BI bayes' rule
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Transcript of BI bayes' rule
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BAYESIAN STATISTICS
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Conditional Probability
A conditional probability is the probability
that an event will occur, when another eventis known to occur or to have occurred. If the
events are A and B respectively, this is said tobe "the probability ofA given B
For example, if a coin is flipped twice, "theoutcome of the second flip" is independent of"the outcome of the first flip".
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Conditional Probability
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Conditional Probability
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Calculate the probability that you have lizard flu.
Assuming you start with 1,000 people , fill in the blanks,
Dividing them into groups according to your base ratesand the specs of the test.
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Bayes Rule
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You can use Bayes rule over and over
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You took control of the probabilities
Using Bayes rule and know how to manage
base rates.
The only way to avoid the base rate fallacy is
always to be on the lookout for base rates andto be sure to incorporate them into youranalyses.
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Thank you.!!!
