Beyond the Books: Using Statistical Analysis to Evaluate & Revise An Approval Plan Profile
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THE CLAREMONT COLLEGES LIBRARY
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Presentation for the ALCTS Acquisitions Section on usage of statistical analysis of approval plans and performance of librarians in selected books that are used by our students and faculty.
Transcript of Beyond the Books: Using Statistical Analysis to Evaluate & Revise An Approval Plan Profile
THE CLAREMONT COLLEGES LIBRARY
The Claremont Colleges Library
Beyond the Books: Using Statistical Analysis to
Evaluate & Revise An Approval Plan Profile
JOHN MCDONALDALCTS AS RESEARCH & STATISTICS
PROGRAMNEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA
JUNE 25, 2011
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
CC BY-NC-ND 2.0: http://www.flickr.com/photos/axis/280925758/
Too many books about cats coming on approval?
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
Time to revise the plan…
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
This profile-ese looks like Greek to me
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
It probably won’t end well…
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
There has got to be a better way
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
What was wrong at Claremont (assumptions, right or wrong)
•No attention to plan, in some areas
•Plan not addressing our needs
•Not enough auto-shipped books
•Too many slips
•Slips don’t match orders
•Orders coming from outside the plan
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
Why does it matter?
•Plan should take care of ‘easy’ buys
•Plan should provide targeted notifications
•Plan should limit out the ‘easy’ non-buys
•Librarians should spend time on ‘tougher’ decisions
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
Could data show us the answer?
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
Dig up some data
•Downloaded records from GOBI•Over 50,000 books profiled by YBP in 2006•Merged with our catalog data on purchase patterns•Included circulation statistics•Deduped print/cloth, excluded eBooks•Coded each book with Autoship/Slip/Exclude status•Coded each book with Purchase Status for
Claremont
June 25, 2011
10%
41%
32%
11%
7%Claremont Actions Books
Not Ordered, No Slip 20,418Not Ordered, Slip 16,059Ordered, No Slip 5,300Ordered, Slip 3,665Autoship 4,839
The Claremont Colleges Library
Books Published in 2006, in GOBI
Actual Outcomes
June 25, 2011
22%
56%
16%
2%4% Method Books
Autoship 11,000Not Ordered, No Slip 28,000Not Ordered, Slip 8,000Ordered, No Slip 1,000Ordered, Slip 2,000
The Claremont Colleges Library
Books Published in 2006, in GOBI
Best Case Outcomes
Analysis of Variance, Predicting PurchaseNumber of obs = 44457 R-squared = 0.1032Root MSE 0.3669 Adj R-squared = 0.1016
Source Partial SS df MS F Prob > FModel 687.704 80 8.5963 63.86 0 slip 0.834 1 0.8338 6.19 0.0128ybp_select 1.032 5 0.2064 1.53 0.1756content_level 0.825 5 0.1650 1.23 0.2939country 2.622 4 0.6554 4.87 0.0006slip*ybp_select 22.795 5 4.5591 33.87 0.0000slip*discipline 47.601 8 5.9502 44.20 0.0000slip*content_level 2.384 4 0.5960 4.43 0.0014slip*country 0.359 4 0.0898 0.67 0.6146ybp_select*content 4.651 11 0.4228 3.14 0.0003ybp_select*country 12.982 20 0.6491 4.82 0.0000content*country 23.481 13 1.8062 13.42 0.0000Residual 5973.277 44376 0.1346
The Claremont Colleges Library
The Claremont Colleges Library
June 25, 2011
Best model of purchase patterns included just a few variables and explained 10% of variance:
Country of PublicationSlip Sent+YBP Select (interaction effect)Slip Sent+Discipline (interaction effect)YBP Select+Discipline (interaction effect)YBP Select+Country (interaction effect)Content Level+Discipline (interaction)Content Level+Country (interaction)
*simpler model included just 3 variables
June 25, 2011
Best model of usage patterns included just a few variables and explained 6% of variance:
DisciplineSlip Sent+DisciplineYBP Select+DisciplineYBP Select+Content Level
Interesting to note: Slip Sent+Discipline and YBP Select+Discipline were both predictors for purchase and usage.
The Claremont Colleges Library
June 25, 2011
A few easy changes can really improve the plan• Adjust Non-subject parameters
o Limit Country of Origin
• Include YBP Select• Analyze LC Class and Disciplines
o Move Slips to Autoship when appropriateo Eliminate Slips when not likely to result in
purchase or usage
The Claremont Colleges Library
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
“Likelihood of purchase” chart
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
Translate to Profile format, part 1…
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
Translate to Profile format, part 2…
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
YBP Action Claremont Action Books %
AUTOSHIP AUTOSHIP 1,457 3.3%
SLIP SLIP 9,644 22.2%
EXCLUDE EXCLUDE 26,164 60.10%
Total 37,265 85.60%
The Good…
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
The Not so Bad…
YBP Action Claremont Action Books %EXCLUDE SLIP - LC SUBJECT 1965 4.51%EXCLUDE SLIP - FORMAT 371 0.85%EXCLUDE SLIP - CONTENT LEVEL 250 0.57%EXCLUDE SLIP - PRICE 213 0.49%EXCLUDE SLIP - BINDING 4 0.01%EXCLUDE SLIP - REFERENCE TYPE 4 0.01%EXCLUDE SLIP - PUBLISHER 1 0.00%Total 2808 6.45%
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
YBP Action Claremont Action Books %
SLIP EXCLUDE - LC SUBJECT 1284 2.95%
SLIP EXCLUDE - COUNTRY 234 0.54%
SLIP EXCLUDE - PUBLISHER 65 0.15%
SLIP EXCLUDE - CONT LVL 28 0.06%
SLIP EXCLUDE - LANG 15 0.03%
SLIP EXCLUDE - FORMAT 5 0.01%
Total 1631 3.75%
The Not so Bad…
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
YBP Action Claremont Action Books %AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - LC SUBJECT 136 0.00%AUTOSHIP SLIP - LC SUBJECT 104 0.16%AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - COUNTRY 69 0.01%AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - PUBLISHER 14 0.31%AUTOSHIP SLIP - FORMAT 9 0.03%AUTOSHIP SLIP - PRICE 6 0.01%AUTOSHIP SLIP - CONTENT LEVEL 5 0.02%AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - FORMAT 3 0.24%AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - CONT LVL 1 0.01%Total 347 0.80%
The Not so Bad…
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
The Problem…
YBP Action Claremont Action Books %
EXCLUDE AUTOSHIP 726 1.67%
SLIP AUTOSHIP 757 1.74%
Total 1,483 3.41%
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
What went wrong
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
Ask why on the “Likelihood of purchase” chart
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
Essentials were essential…
Books Profiled, 2006 All YBP Books Claremont Purchased Books
Select Designation Titles Price Titles PriceNone 1,011 $52,256 838 $45,547
Basic-Essential 902 $33,387 528 $18,873Basic-Recommended 9,467 $380,239 2,950 $121,557
Research-Essential 642 $46,558 389 $23,425Research-Recommended 17,221 $1,538,120 6,152 $438,098
Specialized 3,938 $533,761 704 $61,816Supplementary 17,100 $1,038,704 2,243 $126,674
June 25, 2011
Tune Up needed
• Receive all “ESSENTIAL” Books, except in very obvious areas where we have no collecting history
• Loosen up book/slip designations on targeted LC sub-classes
• Look at non-subject parameters that may be (unintentionally) trumping LC content
• Have librarians work with faculty on additional areas to include
The Claremont Colleges Library
Method BooksAutoship 8,100Not Ordered 34,765Slip 15,200
The Claremont Colleges Library
Books Published in 2010, in GOBI
Tuned Up Revised Plan
Outcomes
14%
60%
26%
June 25, 2011
22%
56%
16%
2%4% Method Books
Autoship 11,000Not Ordered, No Slip 28,000Not Ordered, Slip 8,000Ordered, No Slip 1,000Ordered, Slip 2,000
The Claremont Colleges Library
Books Published in 2006, in GOBI
Best Case Outcomes
June 25, 2011
Lessons learned
• Publishing output fluctuates by yearo Analyze more than a year of data at a time o Especially at the more granular LC subclass levels
• Profiling is an art o Use logic as much as data
• Details are essential
• Listen to your vendor
• No need to be risk averse
The Claremont Colleges Library
June 25, 2011
The Claremont Colleges Library
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