Beyond the 2011 Census: meeting housing requirements across the West Midlands
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Transcript of Beyond the 2011 Census: meeting housing requirements across the West Midlands
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Beyond the 2011 Census:meeting housing requirements
across the West Midlands
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Demographic Change in the West Midlands
New Challenges in the new Millennium
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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Outline
• Step change in population growth 2001-2011• The household – population relationship• Changed geography of growth• Ageing – an ongoing story• Future uncertain?– Limitations of data and projections
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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2011 Census
• Confirmed that population growing rapidly• Found population was greater than expected• Implies past estimates of migration inaccurate• Most data yet to come– cross tabulations (tenure by age etc)– migration and commuting
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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1971-2001
• Limited population growth post baby boom– Background changes
• Age structure• Intergenerational succession
• Action elsewhere– Social, and household change– Policies - Right to Buy – Population explosion in cars– Collapse of mass manufacturing employment
• Counter-urbanisation
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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Population & Household GrowthWest Midlands 1971-2001
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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Drivers of Change?West Midlands Region
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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1971-2001Counter-urbanisation
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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2001-2011
• Take-off in population growth – International migration– More Births– Fewer Deaths
• Slowdown in household formation?• Changing geography of demographic trends
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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International
MigrationDifficult to•Define•MeasureBut•Clear change in order of magnitude since mid 1990s
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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Natural Change 1971-2011(England)
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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Population & Households West Midlands Region
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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2001-2011Metropolitan resurgence
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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Drivers of metropolitan surge
• International migration• More Births • Higher education boom• Reduced migration outflow?– Revised data awaited– Regeneration/city living/strategy?– Static housing market?
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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International
Migration•Census confirms immigration’s role in recent growth•Metropolitan focus•Revised data on flows awaited
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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National Insurance Numbers for overseas nationals 2010-11
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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More Births in the cities
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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Households & Population 2001-2011Geographical contrasts
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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Households past & projected growth
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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Age Changes 2001-2011
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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2011 -Interim Population Projections – bewareBase population updated in light of Census
Unrevised migration, birth and death rates (same as 2010-based)
ONS have issued health warnings
Paradoxical local results :e.g. Birmingham
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence
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Conclusions• Take-off in population growth since 2001
• Shift in geography of pressure to metropolitan
• Population growth outstrips household growth for first time in decades
• Slowdown in propensity to form households
• Geographical differences in age structures
Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence