Beyond Estimation TM The Cost Reconciliation Tracker TM Construction Cost Forecast
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Transcript of Beyond Estimation TM The Cost Reconciliation Tracker TM Construction Cost Forecast
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Beyond Estimation TM
The Cost Reconciliation Tracker TM
Construction Cost Forecast
James Vermeulen, PQS, LEED AP – Co CEO
Blair Tennant, LEED AP – Project Manager
www.vermeulens.com
Toronto Boston Dallas Los Angeles
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Vermeulens is a Registered Provider with The American Institute of Architects Continuing Education Systems. Credit earned on completion of this program will be reported to CES Records for AIA members. Certificates of Completion for non-AIA members are available on request.
This program is registered with the AIA/CES for continuing professional education. As such, it does not include content that may be deemed or construed to be an approval or endorsement by the AIA of any material of construction or any method or manner of handling, using, distributing, or dealing in any material or product. Questions related to specific materials, methods, and services will be addressed at the conclusion of this presentation.
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Cost Reconciliation Tracker Present trends in median trade costs from January 2008 - Current
Quantify current cost reductions and provide future cost projections.
Construction Cost Inflation Understand historic trends in construction cost inflation
Where we were. Where we are. Where we are going.
Cost Drivers Examine the cost impact of: Volume, Commodities, Labor & Profit Margin
Economic Drivers Examine the cost impact of: Commodity Pricing, Equity Markets, Exchange Rates & Employment
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
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Where we were
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High/Low -4.1%
Low / Current +3.7%
Growth RatesQ3 09 +1.6%Q4 09 +4.9%Q1 10 +3.7%Q2 10 +1.7%Q3 10 +2.5%
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Cost Reconciliation Tracker TM
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Code Group VCC CM CM-VCC VCC CM CM-VCC
01 Allowances $1,156,805 $2,422,380 $1,265,575 $2,651,790 $2,672,730 $20,940
02 Site Work $2,636,810 $3,773,428 $1,136,618 $2,918,155 $2,882,279 ($35,876)
03 Concrete $5,840,270 $5,065,081 ($775,190) $5,065,361 $5,065,081 ($280)
04 Masonry $1,547,241 $1,767,385 $220,144 $1,615,526 $1,609,395 ($6,130)
05 Metals $17,945,452 $17,804,383 ($141,069) $15,675,089 $15,577,004 ($98,085)
06 Wood/Plastic $3,172,732 $3,831,671 $658,939 $3,694,276 $3,600,999 ($93,277)
07 Thermal/Moisture Protection $2,903,951 $3,046,873 $142,922 $3,099,398 $3,086,080 ($13,319)
08 Doors/Windows $17,219,666 $15,756,579 ($1,463,087) $15,214,307 $15,299,926 $85,619
09 Finishes $9,635,770 $9,399,224 ($236,546) $10,135,975 $10,137,758 $1,782
10 Specialties $1,335,983 $1,163,012 ($172,971) $1,410,825 $1,418,709 $7,884
11 Equipment $1,127,700 $1,852,358 $724,658 $1,692,000 $1,693,414 $1,414
12 Furnishings $784,846 $302,393 ($482,453) $559,342 $573,596 $14,255
13 Special Construction $300,000 $148,575 ($151,425) $150,000 $148,575 ($1,425)
14 Conveying Systems $4,858,875 $7,212,645 $2,353,770 $5,963,888 $5,993,138 $29,250
15 Mechanical $28,949,381 $35,232,816 $6,283,436 $29,127,187 $29,493,221 $366,034
16 Electrical $15,451,608 $16,700,277 $1,248,669 $16,476,313 $16,451,613 ($24,700)
17 Permits & Fees $19,075,543 $20,452,111 $1,376,568 $20,043,336 $20,051,467 $8,130
18 Contingencies $16,841,472 $14,102,030 ($2,739,443) $15,684,472 $15,697,176 $12,704
19 Enabling $22,704,456 $22,704,458 $2 $22,704,458 $22,704,458 $0
20 Total Construction Costs $173,488,558 $182,737,674 $9,249,116 $173,881,696 $174,156,616 $274,920
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115 Projects
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STRUCTURAL STEEL ($/TON)
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$2,940 - $3,300 $3,260- $3,565
+9%
$180 Deviation
$3,120 Average
$150 Deviation
$3,410 Average
$2,785- $3,140
-13%
$2,965 Average
$2,410- $2,855
-11%
$2,635 Average
$2,385- $2,723
-1%
$2,610Average
$2,285- $2,530
$2,408Average
-9%
-29%
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CONCRETE SLAB ON DECK ($/SF)
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$5.1 - $6.1
+2%
$5.1 - $6.3
-14%
$4.6 - $5.3
-8%
$4.3 - $4.8 $4.3 - $4.9
+3%
$4.5 - $5.3
-21%
+5%
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MASONRY - CMU ($/SF)
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$16.0 - $17.9 $15.6 - $17.7 $14.7 - $16.7 $14.8 - $15.6 $12.8- $14.9 $15.8- $17.7
-18%
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ROOFING MEMBRANE ($/SF)
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$13.2 - $16.5 $14.0 - $17.0 $14.8 - $16.9 $13.4 - $14.8
-11%
$12.7 - $15.0
-2% +8%
$13.2 - $15.1
+2%
-13%
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CURTAINWALL ($/SF)
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$99- $118
+4%
$95- $114 $84- $101
-15%
$84- $96
-3%
$76- $88
-8%
$86- $96
+12%
-24%
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DRYWALL PARTITIONS ($/SF)
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$7.1 - $8.2 $7.1- $7.9
-1%
$6.4- $7.4
-9%
$5.7- $6.8
-9%
$6.5- $7.2 +10%
$6.1- $6.8
-7%
-18%
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ELEVATORS ($/STOP)
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$31,500 - $37,000
$58,000 - $70,000
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PLUMBING – BRANCH PIPE ($/LF)
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$26- $29 $28 - $30
+4%
$26 - $29
-4%
$25 - $27
-5%
$24 - $25
-7%
$24 - $26
+4%
-16%
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DUCTWORK ($/LBS)
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$7.4 - $8.4 $7.8 - $8.5
+3%
$7.0 - $7.9
-8%
$6.8 - $7.5
-4%
$7.1- $7.4
+1%
$7.0- $7.4
-1%
-12%
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CONTROLS ($/PT)
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$1,130 - $1,270
+3%
$1,110 - $1,220 $1,000 - $1,110
-12%
$1,000 - $1,090
-1%
$970 - $1,050
-1%
$951 - $1,040
-5%
-17%
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ELECTRICAL FEEDER ($/LF)
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$127 - $141
+6%
$114 - $139 $97 - $114
-21%
$93 - $112
-3%
$100 - $114
+4%
$96 - $105
-6%
-25%
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GENERAL REQUIREMENTS \ CONDITIONS
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7.7% - 11.5% 7.4% - 11.2%
-3%
8.3% - 10.9%
+4%
8.3% - 9.7%
-6%
8.2% - 9.6%
-1%
8.4% - 11.3%
+12%
-10%
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GENERAL REQUIREMENTS \ CONDITIONS
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1.4%
1.1%1.3% 1.3%
1.5%
1.0%
0.6%
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CONTRACTOR’S FEE (%DIRECTS)
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2.8% - 3.4% 2.8% - 3.5%
+2%
2.6% - 3.3%
-6%
2.6% - 3.1%
-3%
2.4% - 3.1%
-4%
2.0% - 2.7%
-15%
-25%
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ESCALATION CONTINGENCY (% DIRECTS)
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6% - 8%
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COST RECONCILIATION
TRACKER SUMMARY
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TRADE 2008 PEAK – BOTTOM 2010
Concrete -21%
Masonry -18%
Steel -29%
Roofing -13%
Curtainwall -24%
Drywall -18%
Plumbing -16%
Ductwork -12%
Controls -17%
Feeder -25%
GC’s & GR’s -10%
Contractor’s Fee -25%
TRADE SUMMARY
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TYPICAL INSTITUTIONAL PROJECT – DIRECT TRADE COST
CONSTRUCTION COST IMPACT
Assumes trade-weighted average of individual percentage trade reduction
Peak 2008 – Bottom 2010
-14%
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WHITING-TURNER CONTRACTING
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Peak 2008 – Q3 2010
-13.2%
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BUDGET EXAMPLE
Q3 2008 - $100M
14% Escalation Q2 2010 - $114M
14% Market AdjQ2 2010 - $86M5%
Bids @
Cost
Q2 2010 - $82M
-25%
-5%
-28%
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Recession Bottom Growth
Design Contingency
Preliminary Design 10% - 15% same same
Schematic Design 6% - 9% same same
Design Development 3% - 6% same same
Contract Documents 0% - 3% same same
Construction Contingency 3% - 5% same same
Escalation Contingency negative zero 4% - 8%
Bidding Contingency -5% to 0% -5% to 0% 0% to +5%
Project Contingency (Owner) 15% - 10% 15% - 10% 10% - 5%
CONTINGENCY
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WHEN WILL
THE
WINDOW CLOSE ?
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COST DRIVERS
Volume
Commodity Pricing
Labor Productivity
Profit Margins
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• MaterialRaw Goods
• Markup Overhead, Equipment, Profit: (Manufacturer & Contractor)
STRUCTURAL STEEL PRICING
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US DOLLAR RISK HEDGE
High/Low -26%
Low / Mar 09 +18%
Mar09/Current -11%
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US DOLLAR RISK HEDGE
Low / High +123%
High / Mar 09 -58%
Mar09/Current +91%
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US DOLLAR IMPACT ON COMMODITIES
Low/High +164%
High/ Mar 09 -56%
Mar09/Current +57%
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CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
High/Low Total – 6% Construction – 28%
Low/Current Total + 1% Construction +0.3%
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$140B Stimulus Package
CONSTRUCTION VOLUME
High/Low
Total –35% Infra –11% Res –66% Non Res –37%
Low/Current
Total +2% Infra +11% Res +6% Non Res +0.5%
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CONSTRUCTION COST INDEX
Trendline Avg
W-T 3.5%ENR 3.0%Gov 2.6%
% Decline(Peak – Current)
W-T -11.6%Gov -4.9%ENR +2.5%
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Indicator Bottom Increase •Equities March 09 +91%
•Commodities March 09 +57%
•GDP Q2 09 + 4%
•Employment Dec 09 + 1 %
•Non Res Volume Oct 10 +0.5%
Economic Summary
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COST DRIVERS
Volume
Commodity Pricing
Labor Productivity
Profit Margins
2009 2010 2011
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•Peak 2008 to Bottom 2010: -14.0%
•1st Half 2011: + 2.0% + 1.0% + 0.0%•2nd Half 2011: + 2.5% + 1.5% + 0.5%
Cost Outlook
High
VolumeModerate
Volume Low
Volume
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1. Major Economic Indicators have bottomed.
2. Construction Prices are bottoming.
3. Cost Escalation must be factored into construction budgets moving forward.
Summary
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•CM Selection Must Have Full Estimate and Schedules
•Negotiate GMP Post Bid Buyout
•Continue Design & Preconstruction
•Watch Equity Markets for Sustained Rebound
Recommendations
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•Track Record
•Project Volume & Benchmarking
•Consensus Approach in Reconciliation
•The Reconciliation Tracker
•Conceptual Estimating
•Brand
•Trusted Advisor
Why Vermeulens