Beyond Combustion - Clean Power...

Beyond Combustion

July 2017

Trends, Goals, and RecommendationsELECTRIC VEHICLE TRENDS, GOALS, AND

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SONOMA COUNTYBy Doron Amiran, Electric Vehicle Program Manager, Center for Climate Protection

August 2017

www.climateprotection.org

TableofContents

Acknowledgements 2

ExecutiveSummary 3

GlossaryofAcronymsandTerms 5

I.Introduction 6

II.Summaryof2015EVWhitePaper 10

III.ProposedGoalsforEVAdoptioninSonomaCounty 10

IV.SonomaCountyEVStatusandTrends 15

V.FactorsInfluencingEVAdoption 16

VI.LocalPoliciesandPrograms 19

VII.DiscussionandFindings 22

VIII.Recommendations 24

IX.Conclusion 24

AppendixA:CurrentMixofEVsinSonomaCounty 25

AppendixB:TheChallengeofUsedEVs 26

Beyond Combustion: Electric Vehicle Trends, Goals, and Recommendations for Sonoma County, August 2017

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AcknowledgementsTheCenterforClimateProtectionthanksthefollowingwhocontributedtothisreport:BrantArthur,CommunityAffairsSpecialist,SonomaCountyRCPA,whoauthoredthefirstversionofthisreportin2015andreviewedthisversion;CenterforClimateProtection’sEVCommitteemembers:LawrenceJaffe,JimMcGreen,CarlMears,andTimHolmes;AlanSoule,PastPresident,NorthBayElectricAutoAssociation;RonGoldbergwhohelpedusformulateanEVgoalforSonomaCounty;andthegenerousdonorswhosupportourEVwork,includingConnieCodding,FredEuphrat,KenandDonnaMartin,CarlMears,AlanSoule,SinatraAutoGroupandVivintSolar.Wehaveendeavoredtogiveaccurateandusefulinformation.Pleasedirectsuggestions,comments,andquestionstoDoronAmiran,ElectricVehicleProgramManager,CenterforClimateProtection,[email protected]


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ExecutiveSummary

ThispaperupdatestheCenterforClimateProtection’s2015WhitePaperonthestateofElectricVehicles(EVs)inSonomaCounty.TomeetSonomaCounty’sclimategoals,salesofvehicleswithinternalcombustionenginesmustslowdramaticallyinthenext10to15years.Additionally,internalcombustionenginesmustbecomemorefuel-efficient.Otherwise,effortstocurbSonomaCountyGHGemissionswillbeswampedbytailpipeemissions.EVsarethereadiestreplacementforvehicleswithinternalcombustionengines.SonomaCountycurrentlyhasabout4,500EVsontheroad,andby2030itwillneedapproximately138,000EVs(replacinginternalcombustionvehicles)tomeetourclimategoals.Wemustnowbegintocreateafuturebeyondcombustion.ToattaintheneededlevelofEVadoption,anumberofchallengesmustbeovercome,manyofwhichdefylocalaction.Forexample,thecurrentfederaladministrationandCongressthreatentoundoincentivesandregulationsthatadvancecleanenergyandfuel-efficientvehicles.Consequently,SonomaCountymustredoubleitseffortstoaccelerateEVadoption.SpecialattentionmustbepaidtoincreasingthenumberofdriversswitchingfromcombustionvehiclestoEVsratherthansimplyhavingcurrentEVdriversreplacetheircarswithnewerEVs.TherecommendedactionspresentedintheAugust2015whitepaperarestillneeded:1. Advocateforpoliciesandfunding,especiallyatthestatelevel,toaccelerateEV

use.2. ExpandEVcharging,especiallyatworkplaces,multi-unithousing,andalong

transportationcorridors.3. DevelopandimplementanEVawarenesscampaign.4. DevelopEVinfrastructurethroughincreasedcoordination.Inaddition,weofferthefollowingnewrecommendedactions:1. Developandimplementplanstoincreaseandconfirmthenumberofdrivers

switchingfromcombustionvehiclestoEVs;ensurethatnewEVsdonotsimplyreplaceexistingEVs.

2. DevelopanEVchargingstationvisibilitycampaign.3. WorkwithSonomaCleanPower,otherpublicagencies,andtheprivatesectorto

maximizedaytimechargingtoaddressloadmanagementissuesandmaximizetheuseofrenewablepower.

4. Developfinancing,insurance,andvehiclesharingmechanismsthatgivelow-incomedriversaccesstoEVs.


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5. DevelopawarenessprogramsthathighlighttheaffordabilityandaccessibilityofEVsforpeopleatallincomelevels.

6. Advocateandplanforafuturethateliminatesthesaleofnewinternalcombustionenginecarsby2030atthelatest.

7. TrackandpublicizeprogresstowardthegoalsforEVadoption.


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GlossaryofacronymsandtermsBAAQMD BayAreaAirQualityManagementAgencyBEV BatteryElectricVehicleCAFE CorporateAverageFuelEconomyCARB CaliforniaAirResourcesBoardCEC CaliforniaEnergyCommissionCCP CenterforClimateProtectionCVRP CaliforniaVehicleRebateProgramDCFC DirectCurrentFastChargerDMV DepartmentofMotorVehiclesEPA EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyEV ElectricVehicleEVSE ElectricVehicleSupplyEquipmenteVMT ElectricVehicleMilesTravelledFCEV FuelCellElectricVehicleGHG GreenhouseGaskWh kilowatt-hourLevel1charging 110volt(trickle)chargingLevel2charging 240volt(faster)chargingLevel3(DCFC) High-voltage(fastest)chargingMCE MarinCleanEnergyMUD MultiUnitDwellingNBEAA NorthBayElectricAutoAssociationNSCAPCD NorthernSonomaCountyAirPollutionControlDistrictPEV Plug-InElectricVehiclePG&E PacificGasandElectricPHEV Plug-InHybridElectricVehicleRCPA SonomaCountyRegionalClimateProtectionAuthoritySCP SonomaCleanPowerSCTA SonomaCountyTransportationAuthorityVMT VehicleMilesTraveledZEV ZeroEmissionVehicle


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I.IntroductionA.ScientificimperativeforclimateprotectionandSonomaCounty’sleadershipIn2002,allnineSonomaCountycitiesandtheCountyofSonomaadoptedresolutionsrecognizingtheclimatecrisisandpledgingtoacttoreducegreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.In2005,alltenjurisdictionspassedresolutionssettingthegoalofreducingSonomaCounty’sGHGs25percentbelow1990levelsby2015,inlinewiththescientificimperativeforalife-sustainingclimate,andtheboldestgoalinthenationatthetime.Followingthe2005adoptionofthe25percentreductiongoal,theCenterforClimateProtectionfocusedoncollaboratingwithlocalgovernments,businessleaders,technicalexperts,andthecommunityatlargetodeveloptheSonomaCountyCommunityClimateActionPlan,issuedin2008.ThePlanidentifiedCommunityChoiceEnergyasthemostpowerfulsolutionunderlocalcontroltosignificantlyandcost-effectivelyreduceGHGemissions.Consequently,theCenterforClimateProtectionandlocalpolicymakerscametogethertocreateSonomaCleanPower,aCommunityChoiceentity,whichbeganservingcustomerswithcleanerelectricityinMay2014.Fortheseandotherprecedent-settingactions,SonomaCountyisknownasaleaderinclimatecirclesworldwide.TheWhiteHouserecognizedSonomaCountyasaClimateActionChampionin2014.1B.SonomaCounty’sprogresstowardsGHGgoalsSonomaCounty’smostrecentGHGreportindicatesthatSonomaCountymissedits2015GHGgoal.2In2016,theSonomaCountyRegionalClimateProtectionAuthorityextendedthedateforachievingSonomaCounty’sGHGreductiongoalfrom2015to2020.3Becausecarbonaccumulatesintheatmosphere,SonomaCounty’schallengetomeetthescientificimperativecompoundseveryyearitfallsshortofitsgoal.

1 https://energy.gov/epsa/climate-action-champions 2 http://climateprotection.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions-report-2014/. The Sonoma County Regional Climate Protection Authority released a similar report using a slightly different methodology https://rcpa.ca.gov/projects/climate-action-2020/blog/ To be consistent with our past GHG reports, we use the Center for Climate Protection’s GHG report. 3 http://rcpa.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/CA2020_Plan_7-7-16_web.pdf


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Figure1:SonomaCountyGHGemissionsbysource(2014)SonomaCountyisnotaloneinitsstruggletoreduceGHGemissionsinlinewiththescientificimperative.DespiteCalifornia’sgainsinrenewableenergydeployment,energyefficiency,andEVuse,itsGHGemissionsdeclinedin2015just0.3percentfromtheprioryear.4California’sgrowingpopulationandstrengtheningeconomycurrentlytrumpthedriveforsteeperemissionreductions.

4 https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/inventory.htm; http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/California-s-greenhouse-gas-emissions-fall-by-11206585.php


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Figure2:CaliforniaGHGemissions

C.TransportationchallengeIn2014,transportationproducedabout65percentofSonomaCounty’stotalGHGemissions.5Moreover,GHGemissionsinthissectorareprojectedtoincrease.AccordingtotheSonomaCountyTransportationAuthority’sComprehensiveTransportationPlan:

“SonomaCountytransportationGHGemissionsareexpectedtoincreasebyabout39percentduringtheperiodfrom2010to2040.Thisislargelyafactorofincreasedtravelduetopopulationandemploymentgrowth,andassumesthatthevehiclefleetmakeupandvehiclefueleconomystayaboutthesameastheycurrentlyareby2040.GHGemissionsareexpectedtoincreaseatagreaterratethanVMTbecauseofincreasedcongestionandbecauseofslower,andlessefficient,travelspeeds.Statemandatedfueleconomyimprovements(Pavley,AB1493)couldprovidesignificantGHGreductionsby2040becauseofimprovedvehiclefueleconomies,andotherdevelopingandemergingvehicletechnologiesarelikelytoalsocontributetoreducedemissionsfromautomobiletravel.”6

5 http://climateprotection.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions-report-2014/ 6 http://scta.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/CTP16_090616.pdf


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TransportationisnotonlythelargestsourceofSonomaCounty’sGHGemissions,itisalsotheleastamenableofallsectorstolocalemission-reductionmeasures.Dependenceonindividually-owned,individually-driven,internalcombustionvehiclesisandwillcontinuetobethegreatestimpedimenttoreducingSonomaCountyGHGemissions.D.EVs’roleinelectrifyingeverythingThequickestpathtoreducingfossilfuelcombustionistoelectrifyeverythingfromhomeheatingtotransportation,anduserenewableenergyforelectricitygeneration.7Asthegridgetscleaner,whichitisdoingatasteadypace,allelectricaldevices,includingcars,getcleaner.Bycontrast,nomatterhowfuel-efficientacombustionvehicleis,itwillcontinuetoemitaconsistentamountofGHGspermiletraveleduntilitisreplaced,usually10to20yearsinthefuture.NotonlydoEVsdirectlyresultinemissionsreductions,theycanalsoprovideacriticalbuffertooneofthegrowingchallengesinherentwithrenewableenergy:intermittentsupply.Electricityproducedbysunandwindrarelymatchesconsumers’real-timedemandforelectricity.Ameanstostoreelectricityisneededwhentoomuchisproduced,andtoaccessitduringlesssunnyorwindytimes.LargenumbersofEVsconnectedtothegridthroughsmartchargingtechnologyofferaperfectplacetostoreexcesselectricityandmakeitavailablewhenneeded.Programs,incentives,andinfrastructuredesignsthatfosterdaytimeEVchargingwillhelpaccelerateevenmoresolarpowergeneration.MCEandSCPareattheforefrontofexploringEVdeploymentwithsmart-chargingincentivesandprospectiveratedesignsthatincentivizedaytimecharging.8

7 https://www.vox.com/2016/9/19/12938086/electrify-everything 8 https://sonomacleanpower.org/sonoma-clean-power-enters-world-electric-vehicles-new-incentives/

Thequickestpathtoreducingfossilfuelcombustionistoelectrifyeverything.


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II.Summaryof2015EVWhitePaperThefastestwayforSonomaCountytoreducetransportationemissionsistoacceleratetheshiftfromgasolineanddieselfueltoelectricity,asdescribedinthe2015“ElectricVehiclesinSonomaCounty:StatusandPathstoAdoption.”9Thispaperpresentedthefollowingfindingsandrecommendations.Findings:A. ForreducingGHGemissions,fuelshiftissignificantlymorepowerfulthanmode

shift.Thismeansthatchangingthefuelpoweringvehiclesiseasiertoimpactthanischangingthetypesofwayspeoplegetaround.

B. Workplacechargerssignificantlyincreaseelectricvehiclemilestravelled(eVMT).Forexample,employeesaretwentytimesmorelikelytouseanEViftheycanchargetheirEVsatwork.10

C. RenewablepowerboostsGHGreductionsfromEVs.IftheelectricitypoweringEVsisgreener,GHGemissionsfromtransportationdecreases.

D. Moreaffordable,desirableEVsareonthehorizon.E. MeetingstategoalsrequiressignificantlymoreEVchargersinSonomaCounty.F. LocalandregionalpoliciescanaccelerateEVuse.G. ManypotentialEVusersareunawareofEVsandrelatedinfrastructure.H. IncreasedfundingtoaccelerateEVadoptionwillsoonbeavailable.Recommendations:1. Advocateforpoliciesandfunding,especiallyatthestatelevel,toaccelerateEV


transportationcorridors.3. DevelopandimplementanEVawarenesscampaign.4. DevelopEVinfrastructurethroughincreasedcoordination.The2015WhitePaperalsoprovideddetailsregardingthehistoryofEVsinSonomaCounty,economicandenvironmentalbenefits,andatechnicalreview.Thisnewreportupdatesthe2015EVWhitePaperforSonomaCountywithgoalsandtrendsforEVadoption,andrecommendationsformeetingtheproposedgoals.

9 https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/EVWhitePaper-SonomaCounty-Final.pdf 10 https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/11/f19/progress_report_final.pdf


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III.ProposedgoalsforEVadoptioninSonomaCountyHowmanyEVsarerequiredforSonomaCountytomeetthescientificallymandatedGHGreductionsinthetransportationsector?Theanswerisapproximately138,000by2030.First,somecaveatsregardingthisproposedEVgoal.Manyoftheassumptionsforit,suchasfuturetrendsincarownershipandVMTs,aredifficulttoestimate.Wehaveusedpubliclyavailablenationalfiguresinourcalculationswhereverpossible.ItmustalsobenotedthatSonomaCountyisalreadywellbehinditsinitialGHGreductiongoals,andmayfallfurtherbehindasagrowingpopulationdrivesmorecarsmoremilesonlocalroadways.ItisalsodifficulttoestimatetheimpactthattheimpendingSMARTtrainserviceandproposedexpansionofHOVlanesonlocalfreewayswillhaveondrivinghabits.Lastly,theanticipatedrapidgrowthofautonomousdrivingtechnologiesisexpectedtocoincidewiththetimeframeusedinthisreport,andmaycompletelytransformdrivinghabitsinthecomingdecadeandahalf,inwaysthatdefyprediction.Despitethesedifficulties,settingagoalforwherewewanttobeinthefutureisworthwhilebecauseitcaninspire,align,andmobilizeactiontowardourdesiredfuture.WethereforeofferthefollowingcalculationsbasedonSonomaCounty’scurrentanddesiredlevelsofGHGemissions.1. SonomaCounty’sgoalfortotalGHGemissionsin2015=2.6millionmetric

tons112. TotalGHGemissionsinSonomaCountyin2014=3.6millionmetrictons123. TotalrequiredGHGreduction:1.0millionmetrictons134. Transportationequals~65%oftotalGHGemissions.14Therefore,1.0million

metrictonsX.65=650,000metrictonsofGHGemissionsneedtobereducedfromtransportation.

5. TotalnumberoflightvehiclesinSonomaCountyin2014:417,076.156. Theaveragevehicleoverayearofdrivinghastailpipecarbondioxideemissions

ofabout4.7metrictonsfor11,400milesdriven.167. 650,000metrictonsdividedby4.7=138,298lightvehiclesneedtoswitch

fromgastoelectricity. 11 https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2014-GHG-REPORT-Sonoma-County-072815-Final.pdf. 12 Ibid 13 Ibid 14 Ibid 15 DMV Estimated Vehicles Registered by County: January 1-December 31, 2014, CA DMV, provided by Brock Wells via email on 4/18/16. 16 https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-typical-passenger-vehicle

138,000EVsmustsupplantthatmanycombustionvehiclesby2030tomeetSonomaCounty’sclimategoals


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8. 138,298dividedby16years=8,644averageEVincreaseperyear,orwecanreachthe138,000vehiclegoalin2030byincreasingEVadoptionby30.3percentannually.17

Thefollowinggraphreflectsthiscalculation.Figure3:MinimumnumberofEVsrequiredtomeetGHGgoalby203018

Asmentionedabove,projectedpopulationgrowthinSonomaCountyandacommensurategrowthinthetotalnumberofvehiclesandvehiclemilestraveledwillalsofactorintoSonomaCounty’strendsintransportation.Inaddition,uncertaintiessuchastheimpactofautonomousvehicles,ride-sharing,andcar-sharing,willaffectthesizeanduseoftheoverallautomobilefleetinSonomaCounty.SonomaCountycanachieveadramaticreductioninGHGemissionsfromtransportationthroughincreasedEVadoption.IfEVadoptionratesgrowatasteady30percentannualrate,asdescribedabove,EVswillcomprisethevastmajorityofnewcarsalesby2030.Underthisassumption,by2025,EVsaleswilloutstripthesaleofcombustioncars,andby2030thesaleofnewcombustioncarswouldessentiallyend.

17 16 years is approximately two average car “lifecycles.” 18 The Center for Climate Protection: https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EV_adoption.xls


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TheGHGreductionsunderthescenariooutlinedinFigure3areshowninFigure4.Figure4:GHGreductionsfroma30percentannualincreaseinEVadoptioninSonomaCounty19

AmorelikelyscenarioisthatEVadoptiongrowswhilenewcombustioncarsbecomemorefuelefficient.ImprovedCorporateAverageFuelEconomy(CAFE)standardsfromtheUSDepartmentofTransportationaresettorisedramaticallyinthenextdecade.20However,thiswillbereversediftheTrumpadministrationlowersCAFEstandards,astheyhaveproposed.21Figure5reflectsmultiplefactorsforreducingSonomaCounty’stransportationemissionstoreachitsgoal.AlthoughitispossibletoachievethesegoalswithincreasedfuelefficiencyonlyorwithEVsonly,SonomaCountywillachieveitsgoalmostquicklyandachievethedeepestandmostsustainablereductionsinGHGsbycombiningthetwostrategies.

19 Source: Center for Climate Protection: https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EV_GHG_reductions.xlsx 20 https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/corporate-average-fuel-economy 21 http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/trump-rolls-back-obama-era-fuel-economy-standards-n734256


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Figure5:ScenariosforreducingSonomaCountytransportationemissions22

* Goalof650,000metrictonGHGemissionsreductioninSonomaCountytransportationsector,asdescribedonp.11ofthisreport.OurproposedEVgoalalignsfavorablywithgoalssetbyothers.TheyallpointtotheneedforrapidEVadoption.

Table1:LocalEVgoalsEntity EVgoal

CenterforClimateProtection 138,000by2030

SonomaCountyTransportationAuthority/RegionalClimateProtectionAuthority

110,000-140,000by204023

SonomaCleanPower 100,000by203024

BayAreaAirQualityManagementDistrict ~34,500by202525(toreachthegoalof138,000,weproject39,822

EVsby2025)

22 Center for Climate Protection: https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/personal_transport.xlsx 23 Draft Comprehensive Transportation Plan states that to meet Sonoma County’s GHG emission reduction goal of 60 percent below 1990 levels by 2040 we must increase the zero emissions vehicle share to 40-50% of total fleet. http://scta.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/CTP16_090616.pdf 24 https://sonomacleanpower.org/timeline/scp-launches-new-drive-clean-drive-evergreen-program/ 25http://www.baaqmd.gov/~/media/Files/Strategic%20Incentives/EV%20Ready/Summary%20PEV%20Readiness%20Plan%20FINAL.ashx Figure extrapolated using total 247,000 EVs in the Bay Area by 2025, and Sonoma County = 14% of Bay Area population.


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IV.SonomaCountyEVstatusandtrendsThenumberofEVsownedbySonomaCountydriverscontinuestogrow.ThetotalnumberofelectriccarsinSonomaCountyisnowabout4,500,anincreaseofmorethan200percentsincesummer2015whentheinitialversionofthisWhitePaperwasissued.ThisEVgrowthexceedsthatoftheStateofCaliforniaasawhole,whichsawanincreaseofslightlylessthan60percentduringthesametimeperiod.

ThesenumbersarederivedfromstatisticsprovidedbytheCaliforniaVehicleRebateProgram(CVRP)towhichnewEVownersapplyfortheir$2,500staterebate.26TheCVRPdata,whileuseful,areincomplete.AccordingtotheCaliforniaEnergyCommission(CEC),inJuly2016therewereover225,000registeredEVsinCalifornia,butonly152,000receivedrebates.27Thismeansthatapproximately33percentofEVownersdonotapplyfororreceiverebates.Assumingthatonlytwo-thirdsofnewEV

ownersapplyforrebates,weextrapolatefromCVRPdatatodeterminetheapproximatenumberofEVownersinSonomaCounty.BytheendofApril2017,thetotalnumberofSonomaCountyresidentswhohadappliedforrebateswas3,185.28ThissuggeststotalEVownershipinSonomaCountywasapproximately4,500atthattime.SonomaCountynowaccountsforover2percentofCalifornia’sEVs,whichisanuptickfromthe1.6percentlevelreportedin2015.NovemberandDecember2016werethebiggestmonthsforEVrebateapplicationsinSonomaCounty,withover200vehiclespurchaseddirectlythroughSCP’sprogramduringthattime.ThisisprobablyattributabletotheveryattractiveincentivesofferedbySonomaCleanPowerfromOctober2016toJanuary2017.29Oneofthebiggestco-benefitsofswitchingfromgasolinetoelectricdrivingisthemoneythatissaved,andredirectedfrommultinationalfossilfuelcorporations,andpaidinsteadtolocalelectricityproviders,ornotspentonfuelatall.Theapproximately4,500EVownersinSonomaCountyaresavingover$5millioningasolinecostsannually.30Insteadofleavingthecounty,muchofthis$5millionremainincirculationinthelocaleconomy.Ifweextrapolatetoourprojected

26 https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/rebate-statistics 27http://www.energy.ca.gov/renewables/tracking_progress/documents/electric_vehicle.pdf 28 https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/rebate-statistics 29 https://sonomacleanpower.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Drive-EverGreen-EV-Incentive-Pilot-Evaluation-Report.pdf 30 $513,000,000 fuel cost/417,000 vehicles = $1,230 per car fuel cost average x 4,500 = $5,535,000.

Theapproximately4,500EVownersinSonomaCountyaresavingover$5millioningasolinecostsannually


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numberofEVsfor2030,theswitchtoelectricvehiclescouldsaveSonomaCountydriversover$150,000,000peryear,keepingthatmoneyinlocalcirculation.TheeconomicdrainonSonomaCountyfrominternalcombustionenginedrivinghasdecreasedinthepasttwoyears,mostlyduetolowergasolineanddieselprices.ThetotalamountspentbySonomaCountydriversongasolineanddieselpurchasesin2016wasapproximately$500millioncomparedwith$850millionin2013.31

V.FactorsinfluencingEVadoptionThediscussionbelowaddressessomeofthemainfactorsthatinfluenceEVadoption,asidentifiedinarecentstudybytheUniversityofHawaii.32AvailabilityofchargingstationsEasilyaccessibleEVcharging,especiallyatworkplacesandalsoatdestinationssuchasshoppingcentersandhotels,increasesthelikelihoodthatpeoplewillpurchaseEVs,increasestheamountEVownerswilldrivetheircars,andreducestheamountofgasolineburnedinPHEVs.InSonomaCountybetweenAugust2015andDecember2016,thenumberofpubliclyavailablechargersgrewfrom76publicLevel2stationsand8DCFastCharging(DCFC)stationsin2015,toover170Level2chargersinover90separatelocations,and26DCFCin10locations.Ofthese26DCFCstations,10areTeslaSuperchargersatonePetalumalocation.AlmostalloftheDCFCstationsarealongHighway101.Ingeneral,thereisalackofchargersoutsidethe101corridor,especiallyinthecoastalregionsofSonomaCounty.33SeveralworkplacesinstalledEVcharginginthepastyear,includingAmy’sKitchencorporateheadquartersinSantaRosa,SOMOVillageinRohnertPark,andVivintSolarinSebastopol.EVchargersarealsobecomingmoreprevalentathigh-enddestinationssuchaswineriesandhotels.TheStateofCaliforniaremainscommittedtoassistingitsresidentsinmakingtheswitchtoEVs.The$2,500staterebatetypicallygetsoversubscribed,butthelegislaturehasinthepastalwaysallocatedadditionalfunds.34StateSenateBillSB

31 417,000 vehicles x 11,400 miles per year / 25 average mpg x $2.70 average fuel cost = $513,000,000 32 “Factors Affecting EV Adoption,” Coffman et al, 2015, Electric Vehicle Transportation Center, University of Hawaii, 2015, http://evtc.fsec.ucf.edu/publications/documents/HNEI-04-15.pdf 33http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=fbe75444a0f94b8f9cbf9074a6c35ec2&extent=-123.6588,38.1192,-122.2196,38.8609 34 http://www.plugincars.com/california-ev-rebates-are-back-effect-132148.html

TheswitchtoelectricvehiclescouldsaveSonomaCountydriversover$150,000,000peryear


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350,enactedinSeptember2015,directstheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoardtoinitiateavarietyofpoliciestoreduceemissionsandpromoteEVadoption.35EVcharginginfrastructurecontinuestoreceivesupportfromregionalandstateagencies,includingtheCaliforniaEnergyCommission(CEC)andtheBayAreaAirQualityManagementDistrict(BAAQMD).36BatterycostsandrangeIn2015,lithium-ionbatterypriceswerefallingfrom$500-600/kWhtowardsaprojected“tippingpoint”ofaround$200/kWh.37InOctober2016,BloombergNewsreportedthat“thepriceoflithium-ionbatterypackshasfallen65percentsince2010andislikelytokeepdeclining.”38Theirmorerecentanalysis,“Theelectriccarrevolutionisaccelerating,”predictsthatbatterypriceswillcontinuetheirprecipitouspricedecline,andthattheper-kilowatt-hourpriceoflithium-ionbatterieswillfallto$73by2030.39BothTeslaandGMarecurrentlymanufacturingorpurchasingbatterypacksforunder$200/kWh.40Asbatterypricescontinuetofall,EVswillbecomemoreaffordableforconsumers,andmoreprofitableforthecarmakers.Lowerbatterypriceswillalsofacilitatelonger-rangeEVsatincreasinglylowerprices.ArecentreportbyBloombergpredictsthatduetofallingbatteryprices,electriccarswillcostthesameorlesstobuythangasolinecarsby2025.41PolicyincentivesThe$7,500federaltaxcreditfornewEVsremainsintact,althoughitisuncertainwhetherthecurrentadministrationwillcontinueit.ThelargestareaofconcernforincreasedEVadoptionistheproposedrollbackofCorporateAverageFuelEconomy(CAFE)standardsbytheTrumpadministration.42ThiscouldpotentiallyslowEVdevelopment,althoughCaliforniaandotherstateswilllikelypushbackhardagainstthisproposal.

35 http://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/SB350-gives-electric-vehicles-a-charge-6556868.php 36 http://www.baaqmd.gov/grant-funding/businesses-and-fleets/charge 37 http://reneweconomy.com.au/battery-storage-costs-plunge-below100kwh-19365/ 38 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-11/battery-cost-plunge-seen-changing-automakers-most-in-100-years 39 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/the-electric-car-revolution-is-accelerating 40 https://electrek.co/2017/02/18/tesla-battery-cost-gigafactory-model-3/ 41 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-26/electric-cars-seen-cheaper-than-gasoline-models-within-a-decade 42 http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/trump-rolls-back-obama-era-fuel-economy-standards-n734256

Electriccarswillcostthesameorlesstobuythangasolinecarsby2025


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Automakers,cardealers,andtheavailabilityofcarspeoplewantEVadoptionwillincreaseonlyifpeoplearesufficientlymotivatedtoovercometheirpresentdrivinghabitsandfuelingbehavior.Todothis,theymusthaveattractive,convenient,reasonably-pricedEVchoices.Teslahasdemonstratedthatthedemandforhigh-range,moderatelypriced,appealingEVsisstrong.Teslahascollectedover370,000cashdepositsof$1,000toreservetheirupcomingModel3.43GasolineanddieselpricesInrecentyears,thecorrelationbetweenfuelpricesandsalesoffuelefficientvehicleshasweakened.44Similarly,correlationsbetweenfuelpricesandEVsarealsosurprisinglyweak.45CaliforniaandSonomaCountyhavedirectlyexperiencedthis,asgasolinepricesfluctuatedfromover$4.00agallonto$2.50to$3.00pergallonwhilesalesofEVscontinuedtogrow.AstheEVmarketgrowsasapercentageoftotalcarsales,andEVownershipbecomes“normalized,”thecorrelationbetweenfuelpricesandEVsalescouldplausiblystrengthen.InspirationfromabroadNorwayhasthehighestpercapitanumberofall-electriccarsintheworld,morethan100,000inacountryof5.2millionpeople.Lastyear,EVsconstitutednearly40percentofNorway’snewlyregisteredpassengercars.46Elsewhereontheinternationalstagetherehavebeensomeboldpolicyproposals.TheNetherlands’lowerhouseofParliamenthaspassedadraftofalawthatwouldimposeacompletebanoninternalcombustionenginecarsalesbeginningin2025.47Germany’sBundesrathaspassedanon-bindingresolutionaimedatendingallcombustioncarsalesby2030,anotablefeatgiventhatGermanyisthefourthlargestcarmakerintheworld.48FranceandGreatBritainrecentlyannouncedplanstobanallgasolineanddieselvehiclesby2040.49FactorsinfluencingEVadoptionthatareunderlocalcontrolUsingalistoffactorsthatinfluenceEVadoptionfromarecentstudy,weidentifiedwhichofthesefactorsareormightbe,ingeneral,underlocalcontrol,asshownin

43 https://www.yahoo.com/tech/tesla-electric-lineup-now-includes-205704977.html 44 http://www.rff.org/blog/2016/how-do-gasoline-prices-affect-new-vehicle-sales 45 https://pluginamerica.org/do-gas-prices-correlate-plug-vehicle-sales/ 46 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/Norway 47 http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/netherlands-petrol-car-ban-law-bill-to-be-passed-reduce-climate-change-emissions-a7197136.html 48 https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/10/08/germanys-bundesrat-resolves-end-of-internal-combustion-engine/#5c72c77660bd 49 http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/france-petrol-diesel-ban-vehicles-cars-2040-a7826831.html


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thefollowingtable.50DistinguishingthesefactorsisimportantwhendevelopingSonomaCounty’sactionstoaccelerateEVadoption.Table2:FactorsinfluencingEVadoption Generallyunderlocal

control? Yes NoPurchaseprice XDrivingrange XChargingtime XFuelprices XBatteryprices XIncentivesforvehicleownership51 X XIncentivesforchargingsystems52 X XVehiclefeaturesandcharacteristics XAvailabilityofchargingstations X Traveldistance XPublicvisibility X Vehiclediversity X

VI.LocalpoliciesandprogramsWithinthecontextoftheneedtodramaticallyaccelerateEVadoptioninSonomaCountytomeetourgoaltoreduceGHGemissions,andthelimitsofcontrolthatSonomaCountyhasoverthefactorsthatinfluenceEVadoption,weturnourdiscussiontothelocalprogramsandpoliciescurrentlyunderwaytohelpmeetthechallengeofacceleratingEVadoption.Inearly2014,theSonomaCountyRegionalClimateProtectionAuthority(RCPA)anditsparentagency,theSonomaCountyTransportationAuthority(SCTA),wereawardedaStrategicGrowthCouncilPlanningGranttodevelopShiftSonomaCounty.Shiftisastrategicactionplantopromoteashiftinboththemodeandfuelusedforpersonaltransportation—throughcarshare,bikeshare,rideshare,transitintegration,education,incentives,andlanduse—aswellasstrategiestopromoteelectricvehicleuse.Thiswork,scheduledtobeformallyapprovedinFall2017,willassistlocalagenciesinplanningforthecomingchangesintransportationinSonomaCounty.TheplanoutlinesstrategiesforcuttingGHGemissionsfromtransportationinhalf.Proposedeffortsincludeplanning,policy,coordination,deployment,educationand 50 “Factors Affecting EV Adoption,” Coffman et al, 2015, Electric Vehicle Transportation Center, University of Hawaii, 2015, http://evtc.fsec.ucf.edu/publications/documents/HNEI-04-15.pdf 51 Some local agencies, including Sonoma Clean Power and Bay Area air districts, have created vehicle and charger incentive programs. These programs, although more limited in scope and resources than federal and state programs, can provide an additional boost to EV sales. 52 Ibid


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awarenessprogramsforlocalgovernmentstoconsider.FundingmustbesecuredinorderfortheprogramsandinfrastructureoutlinedinShiftSonomaCountytobeimplemented.A.IncreasingtheavailabilityofEVchargingstationsAspartofShiftSonomaCounty,ananalysisoffuturechargingneedswasconductedandhundredsofadditionallocationswereidentifiedwherechargingisneededintheshortterm.53Thisplanningworkwillaidlocalbusinessesandgovernmentsinselectingthebestlocationsforadditionalcharginginfrastructure.FundingfortheinstallationofthechargersisnotincludedintheShiftplan,butcompletionofthisplanningworkwillensurethatchargersareinstalledwheretheyaremostneeded,aspublicandprivatefundingbecomesavailable.Onelargesourceoffundingthatisexpectedtobecomeavailablesoonisfromthelargeinvestor-ownedutilities.TheCaliforniaPublicUtilitiesCommissionrecentlyapprovedPG&E’sapplicationforanElectricVehicleInfrastructureandEducationProgramthatwillfundtheinstallationof7,500Level2chargersthroughoutPG&E’sterritory,withanemphasisonworkplacesandmulti-unitdwellings(MUDs).54AlthoughPG&Ehasnotyetannouncedwheretheywilllocatethesechargers,extrapolatingfrompopulationdata,andassumingSonomaCountyreceivesashareofchargerscommensuratewithourshareofthepopulationinPG&E’sserviceterritory,SonomaCountyshouldexpectsomewhereontheorderof200to250newchargersinworkplaces,and200to250newchargersinMUDs.BayAreaAirQualityManagementDistrict’sCharge!Programisanincentiveprogramthatoffersgrantfundingtohelpoffsetaportionofthecostofpurchasing,installing,andoperatingnewpubliclyavailablechargingstationsatqualifyingfacilitieswithintheAirDistrict’sjurisdiction.55Bothpublicandprivateentitiesareeligibletoapply.For2017,$5millionisallocatedtothisprogram,andawardsaremadeonafirst-come,first-servedbasis.56Thisprogramwillcontributeupto75percentofthecostofpurchasingandinstallingchargingstations.Theminimumallocationis$10,000.Businesses,non-profitsandpublicagenciescanapply,andmustbothmakethechargerspubliclyavailableandmeetminimumusagerequirements.ThefundingissufficienttopayformanyhundredsofnewchargersthroughouttheBayArea.AlthoughitisdifficulttopredicthowmuchwillflowtoSonomaCounty,thisfundingwillcertainlyaccelerateEVchargerinstallationshere.AdditionalfundingwillalsolikelybeavailablefromVolkswagen,asaconsequenceoftheirmulti-billion-dollarsettlementovertheirdieselemissionsscandal.Itisexpectedthathalfofthe$2billionthatVWhascommittedtoinvestinEVinfrastructurewillbespentinCalifornia.57 53 http://scta.ca.gov/planning/shift/ 54 http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107854_california-approves-pge-utility-plan-for-7500-electric-car-charging-stations 55 http://www.baaqmd.gov/grant-funding/businesses-and-fleets/charge 56 www.baaqmd.gov/charge 57 https://electrek.co/2017/02/08/vw-electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure-dieselgate-settlement/


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TheCEChasfundedtheinstallationofadditionalfastchargersalongthenorthernportionoftheHighway101corridor,allthewaytotheOregonborder.ThisincludesfastchargelocationsinbothHealdsburgandCloverdale.Theinstallationofthesechargerswillbeginin2017,andtheywillbeavailablein2018.58TheNorthernSonomaCountyAirPollutionControlDistrict(NSCAPCD),aspartoftheir3-2-1GoGreenprogram,isofferingassistanceforbusinessesthatwishtoinstallpubliclyavailablechargersinruralregionsinthenorthandwestofSonomaCounty,aswellasalongthecoast.59AsofJuly2017,fourapplicationshavebeenapprovedforpublicchargerinstallationthroughthisprogram.60B.LocalEVrebateandincentiveprogramsThefollowingareotherSonomaCountyprogramsandpoliciesthatwereinitiatedinthepasttwoyearstoaccelerateEVadoption.SonomaCleanPower(SCP)approvedanallocationof$3millionforavarietyofeffortsrelatedtoacceleratingEVadoption,bundledunderthename“DriveEvergreen.”FromOctober2016toJanuary2017,SCPofferedincentives,discountsandrebatesforEVpurchasesinSonomaCounty.Thisprogramhasbeencompletedandevaluated.61Intotal,206newEVswerepurchasedorleasedthroughtheprogram,including35thatwereobtainedbylow-incomecustomers.EstimatesindicatethattheoperationofthesevehiclesovertheirlifetimewillreduceGHGemissionsequivalentto7,726to13,640metrictonsofCO2,withanaveragereductionof1.8metrictonsper$100ofincentivefundingspent.SCPwillrolloutasecondphasefromAugusttoOctoberof2017thatwillincludeawidervarietyofmodelmakesaswellasusedEVs.Fundingof$1.5millionisavailableasincentivesforover500additionalvehicles.62SCPcustomersalsocanreceivefreeLevel2electriccarchargersthatconnecttotheInternetandenableSCPtotrackuseandeventhrottlebackchargingduringtimesofhighdemand.Over570chargershavebeendeployedthroughthisprogram,withover90percentofthosereceivingchargerssigningupforthestill-in-developmentdemandresponseprogram.InadditiontoprovidinganotherincentivetoEVadoption,thisportionoftheprogramwillallowSCPtoconductareal-worldfieldtestofdemandresponsemanagement.TheNorthernSonomaCountyAirPollutionControlDistrict(NSCAPCD)alsolauncheda3-2-1GoGreenprograminAugust2016toofferrebatesandincentives 58 https://www.mendovoice.com/2017/04/fast-charging-stations/ 59 http://sonomacounty.ca.gov/Go-Green 60 Rob Bamford, NSCAPCD, July 20, 2017 61 https://sonomacleanpower.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Drive-EverGreen-EV-Incentive-Pilot-Evaluation-Report.pdf 62 https://sonomacleanpower.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017.07.06-SCPA-BOD-Agenda-Pkt-reduced.pdf


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forthepurchaseofEVs(aswellastheinstallationofbothresidentialandcommercialchargers)withintheirjurisdiction.Over60vehiclerebateshavebeenapprovedthroughthisprogramasofJuly2017.63C.PublicvisibilityandEVpromotionSonomaCleanPowerhasmountedarangeofEVpromotionefforts,includingdistributionofbrochuresandpamphlets,informationontheirwebsite,andaseriesofsixride-and-driveeventsatlargeemployersheldinthefallof2016.TheNorthBayElectricAutoAssociation(NBEAA),achapterofthenationalElectricAutoAssociationcomprisedoflocalEVdriversandadvocates,holdsmonthlymeetingstokeepmembersabreastofthelatestprogramsandtechnologiesandtocoordinateadvocacyefforts.TheNBEAAalsohostsanannualride-and-driveeventduringNationalDriveElectricWeek.In2016theeventattractedover500participants.Plansareunderwayforthe2017event,whichwilltakeplaceSeptember9forthefirsttimeinCourthouseSquareinSantaRosa.64SonomaCleanPower,theCenterforClimateProtection,theNBEAA,NSCAPCD,andtheCountyofSonomahavecollaboratedregularlytopromoteEVsinSonomaCounty.

VII.DiscussionandfindingsManyforward-thinkingpeople,suchasbusinessmanRichardBranson,predictthatEVswillovertakecombustioncarsin10to15yearsasbatterypricesfall,vehiclerangesincrease,andtheclimateimperativedrivespoliciesfavoringelectricityovergasolineanddiesel.65Volvorecentlybecamethefirstmajorautomakertoannounceacompletephaseoutofgas-onlycars,announcingthatallmodelstheyintroduceafter2019willbeeitherhybridsorpureelectrics.66CanSonomaCountyandtherestoftheworldwaitforsuchforcestocausethetransformationneededintransportationtoreduceGHGemissionsandmeetthescientificimperative,orismoreneeded?ForSonomaCountytoachieveitsGHGemissionreductiongoalarapidaccelerationofEVadoptionisrequired.Thiswilltakesomethingmuchmorethana“business-as-usual”effort.Thecurrently-offeredprogramsatnational,state,andlocallevelsrepresentagoodfoundation,butareinsufficienttomeettheproblematthespeedandscalerequired.

63 Rob Bamford, NSCAPCD, July 20, 2017 64 https://driveelectricweek.org/event.php?eventid=963 65 http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/08/motorsport/richard-branson-formula-e/ 66 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/business/energy-environment/volvo-hybrid-electric-car.html


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SonomaCountyispresently15yearsbehindinachievingitsgoaltomeetthescientificimperativeforclimateinthetransportationsector.Moreover,SonomaCounty’sGHGemissionsareprojectedtoincrease,asmentionedabove.SonomaCountycontrolsonlyasmallnumberoffactorsthatinfluenceEVadoption,andthepresentlocalprogramsandpoliciesareprobablyinsufficienttoaccelerateEVadoptiontothelevelneeded.ThisconclusioniscorroboratedbytheNorthBayCleanEnergyForumintheirwhitepaper,“DataDrivenPathtoEconomicandEcologicalSustainability.”WhilesupportingCommunityChoiceEnergyeffortstoachievewiderEVadoption,theysoundacautionarynote.“InthecontextoftherapidlyevolvinganddynamicEVmarketplace,CommunityChoicepolicyassumptionsneedtoavoidproducingexpensiveprogramsthatapplypublicresourcestoareaswherescaledprivateinvestmentsareforthcoming.Therefore,theForumrecommendsthatCommunityChoiceagenciescarefullycoordinatewithprivatesectorefforts.ToensureabalancebetweenthegrowingnumberofEVsandtheirneedforpublicchargingstationsrequiresongoingdata-basedmonitoringofthetypeandvolumeoflocalEVs(i.e.,shortrangevs.longrange)andpublicchargingstationcapacity.TosupportmarketforcesdrivingtechnologicalinnovationrequiresinstitutingastrategytoincentivizeEVinvestmentbasedonasimpleformula:DollarvalueperGHGreductionpercapitavehiclemilestraveled(VMT).”67Tomaintainitsleadershipposition,SonomaCountymustaccelerateitstransitionfromfossil-fuelbasedtransportation,andpreparefortheworldbeyondcombustion.By2030,salesofnewcombustioncarsmustbedrawingtoanend.Todootherwisewillnotonlycedeourpositionasclimateleaders,butwillnegateallothereffortstocurbGHGs.ThehighestleverageactionthatSonomaCountycantakemaybetocallattentiontothegapinmeetingthescientificimperativeforclimateinthetransportationsector,andtoadvocateformorerapidchange.SonomaCounty’sstatusasalocalclimateleaderwilllendcredibilitytothissoundingofthealarm.WemustnotonlyaddmanymoreEVs,anddosomuchmorequickly,butwemustalsoreplaceandremovethecombustioncarsfromourroads.Infact,combustioncars,considerednormalforacenturynow,mustbecomeanicheproduct.Inthesamewaythatsmoking,oncecompletelyacceptableinthehomeandworkplace,isnowrightlystigmatized,wemustdevelopanewconsciousnesswherethecostsofcombustiontoindividualandcommunityhealth,andtotheplanet,arerightlyunderstood.Afterall,ifwedon’tsmokearoundourkidsanymore,whydowenotthinktwiceaboutstrappingthemintoahighlypollutingcombustionmachine?Thischangeinthinkingmustbeattherootofthetransformationtowardcleanertransportation. 67 http://cleanpowerexchange.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/NBCEForumWhitePaper_CCA_2017-0124_FINAL.pdf


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VIII.RecommendationsTherecommendedactionspresentedintheAugust2015whitepaperwere:1. Advocateforpoliciesandfunding,especiallyatthestatelevel,toaccelerateEV


transportationcorridors.3. DevelopandimplementanEVawarenesscampaign.4. DevelopEVinfrastructurethroughincreasedcoordination.Ourfindingsindicatethattherecommendedactionsfrom2015arestillneeded.Inaddition,weofferthefollowingrecommendedactions:1. Developandimplementplanstoincreaseandconfirmthenumberofdrivers

switchingfromcombustionvehiclestoEVs;ensurethatnewEVsdonotsimplyreplaceexistingEVs.

2. DevelopanEVchargingstationvisibilitycampaign.3. WorkwithSonomaCleanPower,otherpublicagencies,andtheprivatesectorto

maximizedaytimechargingtoaddressloadmanagementissuesandmaximizetheuseofrenewablepower.

4. Developfinancing,insurance,andvehiclesharingmechanismsthatgivelow-incomedriversaccesstoEVs.

5. DevelopawarenessprogramsthathighlighttheaffordabilityandaccessibilityofEVsforpeopleatallincomelevels.

6. Advocateandplanforafuturethateliminatesthesaleofnewinternalcombustionenginecarsby2030atthelatest.

7. TrackandpublicizeprogresstowardthegoalsforEVadoption.

IX.ConclusionDespiteprogressmadeoverthepasttwoyears,muchworkremainstobedonetoensurethatSonomaCountyaddressesitstransportationemissions.WeestimatethattheCountywillneedbetween100,000and150,000EVsby2030toreachourgoals.Thismeansthatbytheendofthenextdecade,thesalesofnewcombustioncarsmusteffectivelyend.Ifpublicagencies,electedofficials,consumers,andthebusinesscommunityatlocal,state,andnationallevelsworktogether,wecanachieveourgoals.Wemustnotonlycontinuecurrentefforts,butwemustalsoincreasethemdramatically.


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AppendixA:CurrentmixofEVsinSonomaCountyThecurrentmixofEVtypesremainslargelythesameasitwasin2015,withtheNissanLeafandChevyVoltleadingthewayinthebattery-electricvehicle(BEV),andplug-inHybridVehicle(PHEV)categories,respectively.68OthermakesthathavesignificantlyincreasedlocalsalesincludeFord,Fiat,andHonda.VWjumpedsixspotsupthelist,andisnowtheeighthmostpopularEVinSonomaCounty.Otherbrands,however,havesoldveryfewmodels.NotableamongtheseisToyota,whichcurrentlyoffersnoBEVsatall,andhassoldveryfewPHEVs.

Table3:CumulativeSalesofEVsinSonomaCountybyMajorBrands

March30,2015April30,2017

NissanLeaf 543 956ChevyVolt 264 529PriusPlug-In 238 298FordEnergi 142 315TeslaModelSandX 135 295Fiat500e 79 220FordFocusEV 50 90BMWI3 27 81SmartFourTwo 25 33ToyotaRAV4EV 24 26ChevySpark 21 64KiaSol 17 47HondaFit 15 15VWe-Golf 6 100

TOTAL 1586 3069

68 Ibid


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AppendixB:ThechallengeofusedEVsTheretentionorlossofusedEVsisofincreasingimportanceasalargenumberoffirst-generationEVsreachtheendoftheirlease.ManyofthoseEVownersareleasingnewermodels,releasingtheircarsintotheusedcarmarket.ShouldthoseEVsleavethecounty,orbetakenoutofservicecompletely,thebenefitsofadditionalsalesofnewEVswillbediluted.However,anumberofbarriersexisttothewidespreadretentionofusedEVs.1. Rebatesandincentivesareavailablefornewvehicles,butnotforused

vehicles.Althoughtherearemanygoodreasonsforthis,thegapbetweenthepricesofnewandusedEVsissmallerthanitwouldbeotherwise,whichreducestheattractivenessofbuyingausedEV.

2. Thosewhoarelookingtoreplaceanolder,highlypollutingcarwithausedEV

mayhavetoincreasetheirinsurancecoverage.Thisisbecausemanyownersofoldercarsonlycarrybasicliabilitycoverage.IftheyinvestinanEV,beitneworused,theywillneedincreasedinsurance.Iftheyleaseorfinancetheircar,theywillneedtopurchasecomprehensivecollisioninsurance,whichcouldbeanexcessivelyburdensomecostforsome.Thisisnottrueformoreaffluentbuyers,whoareoftenreplacinganewer,fully-insuredcarwiththeirEV.

3. Manybuyersofusedcarsarelowerincomeandthereforerentratherthanown

homes.Thiscreatesatwo-layeredproblemwhentheyareconsideringanEV.Rentersarereluctanttomakeinvestmentsintheirhousing,includingpayingtoinstallcharginginfrastructure.Subsequently,rentersarelikelytobelimitedtoLevel1charging.Renterswhoresideinmulti-unithousingfaceafurtherhurdleinthattheirparkingisoftentoofarfromtheirapartmenttoevenhaveaLevel1chargingoption.Thischallengeofprovidingchargingopportunitiesforresidentsofmulti-unithousingisanationalissue.TheUSDepartmentofEnergyhasissuedguidelinesforMUDEVcharging,69butthereareasyetonlyafewscatteredinstancesofMUDcharginginSonomaCounty.Furthermore,evenwhenrentersareabletochargeattheircurrentdwelling,theymaybereluctanttoinvestinanEVduetouncertaintyaboutchargingavailabilityattheirfuturehome,shouldtheymove.ThecontinuedlackofworkplacechargingfurthercomplicatesthechargingsituationforSonomaCountydrivers.

AprogramtoretainusedEVsisneeded,ideallymakingthemavailabletolow-incomebuyerswhowouldotherwisebeexcludedfromthebenefitsofEVs.Thisprogramshouldnot,however,simplyofferthecarsasastand-aloneprogram.Thecar,thefinancing,theinsurance,andthechargingshouldbeofferedasabundledpackagetomaximizeadoption.Combiningtheprogramwithatrade-inofanoldpollutingvehiclethatthengetspermanentlyretiredwillmaximizetheclimateandairpollutionbenefitsoftheprogram.

69 http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_charging_multi.html

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