Beyond Climate Change:

No Global Environmental Crisis Left Behind

International co-operation to address Global Challenges

OECD, Paris, 25-26 March 2009

Carlos M. Duarte

CSIC

Mallorca

Spain

Outline

Climate change vs. Global Change

Collision Trajectories

Thresholds and Tipping Points

Challenges for International Cooperation

Climate Change is recognized as a Global Threat

receiving substantial political and public attention

News in Mass Media

(sample, Spain)

CausesEnergy Use

HIGH CO2 EMISSIONS

GREEN HOUSE EFFECT

GLOBAL WARMING

CLIMATE CHANGE

Is Energy the only Resources we Consume in Excess?

Essential Elements

(N, P, Fe, etc.)

Synthetic

substances

Water

LandBiodiversity

Energy Use

Per capita energy use (MW-h/year) Per capita water use (MW-h/year)

Per capita resource use is growing

(5 to 10 fold in 20th Century)

Human Demands are Ovreshooting the Planet’s Capacity

Data Pop. Ref. Bureau y de NU

Rapid Growth of Human Population

Núm

ero

de

per

sonas

(m

iles

de

mil

lones

)

Estimates of the Earth’s

Carrying Capacity

Water

Arable land

Food

Hoy

2050

Humanity is about to

enter a new period of

limited Earth’s

capacity to support

further population

growth

XPopulation GrowthIncrease in per capita

Resource Use

Increase in Resource use

Global Change

Global Change

Impact of human activity on the processes that

govern the functioning of the Earth System.

The term “Change” refers to the fact that the

regulation of the functioning of the Earth System has

now changed due to the introduction of control

mechanisms – technology – that simply did not exist

over most of the Earth’s history (e.g. CFC’s and

Ozone; Haber reaction and the N cycle, etc.).

The risks involved are not

the sum of those derived

from the individual

trajectories but those

resulting from the interaction

of multiple interacting

trajectories

Population GDP

Land Used Forest loss

CO2 Energy

Water use Nitrogen flux

The trajectories of growing

pressure on natural

resources are in a collision

course

CFC’s

Ozone loss

UV increase

Biodiversity

Loss

Climate

Change

Resource use Global Changes Impacts

Loss of ecosystem

services and resilience

Diseases

Food and water

insecutiry

Erosion of

Environmental

Basis to well being

Economic loss

Energy

Elements (N, P, Fe,

etc.)

Land

Biodiversity

Synthetic Chemicals

Climate

Change

Resource use Global Changes

Biofuel use

Reduced CO2

Emissions

Mitigation of

Climate

Change

Climate Change Only

Biofuel Use

Reduced Emissions

Mitigation of

Climate

Change

Global Change

Energy

Nitrogen

Water

Land

Pesticides and

Herbicides

-

Migration and

Conflicts

Povertry

Food insecurity

Increased

Emissions

Depleation of

Water

Resources

Desertification

Reduced water,

soil and air quality

Biodiversity

loss

Energy

Water

Elements (N, P, Fe,

etc.)

Land

Biodiversity

Synthetic Chemicals

Resource use

Loss of air, soil and

water quality

Biodiversity

Loss

Climate

Change

Changes in

Water Cycling

Desertification

UV increase

Global Changes

Loss of ecosystem

services and resilience

Migration,

Conflicts

Deseases

Food and water

insecutiry

Erosion of

Environmental

Basis to well being

Economic loss

Impacts

IPCC

Extent of Climate ChangeEco

syst

em R

esponse

Smooth

Response

Extent of Climate Change

Eco

syst

em R

esponse

Abrupt

Response

Threshold

The response of the

Earth System to

climate change may be

smooth or abrupt

depending on the

functional

relationships involved

and the extent of

interactions between

components.

Abrupt changes are

expected for

complex systems and

are more likely when

different trajectories

enter in collision

The rate of warming is rising

An

om

alía

(º

C)

rela

tiv

a a

19

61

-19

90

IPCC (2007)

The rate of ice loss in the Arctic is accelerating

Minimum Arctic ice extent

(million Km2)

Abrupt Changes

Earth System

Ecosystem

Social System

Understanding

Mitigating & Adapting

Technology

Engineering

Social Sciences

Geosciences

Biosciences

Doing

Society:

Innovation

Governance

Cooperation

Communication

Education

Time: Procastinating has a cost

Every year that elapses without “doing”:

* The trajectories of global crisis rise

• The risks of trespassing critical thresholds and

tipping the system increases as the trajectories

continue to rise.

• Options for adaptation and mitigation shrink

while costs rise.

Dialog with Society

Popular science

Scientists

Specialised

journals

Journalists and

News Agencies

Mass media

Society

Too long

Unefffective

Slow

Prone to noise

A new partnership

toward effective

communication

between scientists and

society

Science and Technology Challenges

A new, encompassing Global Change Approach to the problem.

Transdisciplinary Integration (from Geo to Social Sciences) –

requires new tools, concepts and structures.

Global Integration and Regional Participation

Scientific independence (clear separation between scientific

evidence and politics)

More effective and direct platforms to reach out and convey

scientific results to society and its actors.

Coordinate policies