Between Populism, Charisma and "Money Between Populism, Charisma and "Money Politics": President Yudhoyono and the Politics": President Yudhoyono and the

Evolution of the Indonesian Party SystemEvolution of the Indonesian Party System

Dr Marcus Mietzner, ANUDr Marcus Mietzner, ANU

Wednesday Lunch at Lowy Wednesday Lunch at Lowy

22 April 200922 April 2009

Structure of the TalkStructure of the Talk

1.1. Results of the parliamentary elections of 9 AprilResults of the parliamentary elections of 9 April2.2. The reasons for Yudhoyono’s and PD’s victoryThe reasons for Yudhoyono’s and PD’s victory3.3. A new Yudhoyono dynasty?A new Yudhoyono dynasty?4.4. The future prospects of the established parties (Golkar, The future prospects of the established parties (Golkar,

PDIP, Islamic parties)PDIP, Islamic parties)5.5. The “Philippinisation” of Indonesian politics? Personalised The “Philippinisation” of Indonesian politics? Personalised

parties and the rise of celebritiesparties and the rise of celebrities6.6. Democratic consolidation in Indonesian: 4 key problemsDemocratic consolidation in Indonesian: 4 key problems

Results of the parliamentary elections of 9 AprilResults of the parliamentary elections of 9 April

Source: “Quick Count” Data from Lembaga Survei Indonesia

The reasons for Yudhoyono’s and PD’s victoryThe reasons for Yudhoyono’s and PD’s victory

The victory of Yudhoyono’s democratic Party The victory of Yudhoyono’s democratic Party (PD) was primarily due to massive cash-for-the-(PD) was primarily due to massive cash-for-the-poor programs implemented since mid-2008poor programs implemented since mid-2008

More than US$ 2 billion distributed in cash More than US$ 2 billion distributed in cash assistance, school allowances and micro-assistance, school allowances and micro-creditscredits

These policies copied elements of These policies copied elements of “Thaksinomics”, which have also been partially “Thaksinomics”, which have also been partially adopted in other Asian Democracies (India, adopted in other Asian Democracies (India, Philippines)Philippines)

Populist economic policies helped Yudhoyono Populist economic policies helped Yudhoyono to achieve a remarkable political come-backto achieve a remarkable political come-back

Source: Lembaga Survei Indonesia (Saiful Mujani/William R. Liddle)

Source: Lembaga Survei Indonesia (Saiful Mujani/William R. Liddle)

Source: Lembaga Survei Indonesia (Saiful Mujani/William R. Liddle)

Source: Lembaga Survei Indonesia (Saiful Mujani/William R. Liddle)

The reasons for Yudhoyono’s and PD’s victoryThe reasons for Yudhoyono’s and PD’s victory

But despite Yudhoyono’s borrowing of But despite Yudhoyono’s borrowing of elements of “Thaksinomics”, he is unlikely to elements of “Thaksinomics”, he is unlikely to copy his Thai counterpart in other areascopy his Thai counterpart in other areas

Politically, Yudhoyono is much more Politically, Yudhoyono is much more moderate and restrainedmoderate and restrained

He also has a clean image, leading the He also has a clean image, leading the most extensive anti-corruption campaign in most extensive anti-corruption campaign in Indonesian historyIndonesian history

Arrest of father-in-law of Yudhoyono’s son Arrest of father-in-law of Yudhoyono’s son in November 2008 boosted the president’s in November 2008 boosted the president’s anti-corruption credentialsanti-corruption credentials

Source: Lembaga Survei Indonesia (Saiful Mujani/William R. Liddle)

Source: Lembaga Survei Indonesia (Saiful Mujani/William R. Liddle)

A new Yudhoyono dynasty?A new Yudhoyono dynasty?

Whether Yudhoyono, his party and his family can Whether Yudhoyono, his party and his family can entrench themselves in the Indonesian political entrench themselves in the Indonesian political landscape in the long term depends on the popularity landscape in the long term depends on the popularity of the president in 2014of the president in 2014

Even if he leaves office with high popularity ratings, Even if he leaves office with high popularity ratings, there are three key obstacles for Yudhoyono in there are three key obstacles for Yudhoyono in terms of arranging his successionterms of arranging his succession

1.) PD lacks credible senior leaders; young cadres 1.) PD lacks credible senior leaders; young cadres need another 10-15 years to prepare need another 10-15 years to prepare

2.) PD remains institutionally weak at the grassroots2.) PD remains institutionally weak at the grassroots 3.) Yudhoyono’s sons are probably at least two 3.) Yudhoyono’s sons are probably at least two

decades away from being seriously considered for decades away from being seriously considered for the presidencythe presidency

A new Yudhoyono dynasty?A new Yudhoyono dynasty?

A new Yudhoyono dynasty?A new Yudhoyono dynasty?

The future prospects of the established parties (Golkar, PDIP, The future prospects of the established parties (Golkar, PDIP, Islamic parties)Islamic parties)

Prospects for established parties better than Prospects for established parties better than their losses in the April election suggesttheir losses in the April election suggest

In contrast to PD, many of these parties are In contrast to PD, many of these parties are historically and socially rooted, with some of historically and socially rooted, with some of them tracing their foundation to the 1950s, them tracing their foundation to the 1950s, 1960s or 1970s1960s or 1970s

The introduction of a parliamentary threshold The introduction of a parliamentary threshold (2.5%) is likely to lead to a concentration (2.5%) is likely to lead to a concentration process in the party system, benefiting the process in the party system, benefiting the established partiesestablished parties

If the established parties can overcome internal If the established parties can overcome internal conflicts and advance their regeneration, the conflicts and advance their regeneration, the prospects of them remaining fixtures in prospects of them remaining fixtures in Indonesia’s party system are goodIndonesia’s party system are good

The “Philippinisation” of Indonesian politics? Personalised The “Philippinisation” of Indonesian politics? Personalised parties and the rise of celebritiesparties and the rise of celebrities

Some observers see Indonesian politics as Some observers see Indonesian politics as undergoing a process of “Philippinisation”undergoing a process of “Philippinisation”

They refer to the rise of personalised parties, They refer to the rise of personalised parties, such as Gerindra and Hanurasuch as Gerindra and Hanura

But both parties have been huge But both parties have been huge disappointments for their foundersdisappointments for their founders

Both Prabowo and Wiranto have spent tens Both Prabowo and Wiranto have spent tens of millions of dollars on their parties, which of millions of dollars on their parties, which are now the two smallest in parliamentare now the two smallest in parliament

The examples of Gerindra and Hanura, in The examples of Gerindra and Hanura, in combination with the new parliamentary combination with the new parliamentary threshold, are likely to serve as disincentives threshold, are likely to serve as disincentives to the establishment of more purely personal to the establishment of more purely personal electoral vehicleselectoral vehicles

The “Philippinisation” of Indonesian politics? Personalised The “Philippinisation” of Indonesian politics? Personalised parties and the rise of celebritiesparties and the rise of celebrities

Another sign identified by analysts as an indication for Another sign identified by analysts as an indication for the “Philippinisation” of Indonesian politics is the rise the “Philippinisation” of Indonesian politics is the rise of TV celebrities as successful legislative candidatesof TV celebrities as successful legislative candidates

Indeed, some celebrities have gained more votes than Indeed, some celebrities have gained more votes than senior party leaderssenior party leaders

This trend has been made possible by a change in the This trend has been made possible by a change in the electoral system, which is now based on a fully open electoral system, which is now based on a fully open party listparty list

However, fundamental differences between Indonesia However, fundamental differences between Indonesia and the Philippines remainand the Philippines remain

In the Philippines, celebrities have been elected In the Philippines, celebrities have been elected president and senator; in Indonesia, the highest office president and senator; in Indonesia, the highest office so far gained by a TV star is deputy governorso far gained by a TV star is deputy governor

Democratic consolidation in Indonesian: 4 key problemsDemocratic consolidation in Indonesian: 4 key problems

Entering its 12Entering its 12thth year in May year in May 2009, Indonesia’s multi-party 2009, Indonesia’s multi-party system is stable and shows no system is stable and shows no sign of degeneration or sign of degeneration or imminent crisisimminent crisis

Support for democracy remains Support for democracy remains high, voter turnout is healthy, high, voter turnout is healthy, and no other form of and no other form of governance is currently being governance is currently being promoted by any key socio-promoted by any key socio-political grouppolitical group

Nevertheless, there are four Nevertheless, there are four areas that have the potential to areas that have the potential to delay or obstruct further delay or obstruct further democratic consolidationdemocratic consolidation

SOURCE: USAID/DEMOCRACY INTERNATIONALINDONESIA ANNUAL PUBLIC OPINIONSURVEYS 2008 REPORT

Democratic consolidation in Indonesian: 4 key problemsDemocratic consolidation in Indonesian: 4 key problems

1. Unpopularity of the political parties and, 1. Unpopularity of the political parties and, more specifically, their representatives in the more specifically, their representatives in the legislature – while a global phenomenon, in legislature – while a global phenomenon, in a young democracy like Indonesia’s, this a young democracy like Indonesia’s, this must be a source of concernmust be a source of concern

2. Decline in the quality of electoral 2. Decline in the quality of electoral management since 2004 – mostly due to the management since 2004 – mostly due to the increasing disengagement of foreign donorsincreasing disengagement of foreign donors

3. Increasing commercialisation of political 3. Increasing commercialisation of political affairs, i.e. growing dependence of elected affairs, i.e. growing dependence of elected officials on financial sponsorsofficials on financial sponsors

4. Continued problems in the fight against 4. Continued problems in the fight against corruptioncorruption

ConclusionConclusion

1. Yudhoyono and his party PD have achieved a remarkable political 1. Yudhoyono and his party PD have achieved a remarkable political comeback, boosted by multi-billion dollar cash hand-outscomeback, boosted by multi-billion dollar cash hand-outs

2. However, Yudhoyono’s and PD’s long-term political prospects 2. However, Yudhoyono’s and PD’s long-term political prospects remain uncertain, while the established parties are likely to recover remain uncertain, while the established parties are likely to recover from their recent lossesfrom their recent losses

3. The trend towards more personalised parties is likely to be 3. The trend towards more personalised parties is likely to be reversed, and TV celebrities – while winning many votes in the reversed, and TV celebrities – while winning many votes in the elections – are unlikely to have the same influence as their Philippine elections – are unlikely to have the same influence as their Philippine counterpartscounterparts

4. Indonesia’s process of democratic consolidation is much more 4. Indonesia’s process of democratic consolidation is much more successful than predicted in 1998, but four problematic areas need to successful than predicted in 1998, but four problematic areas need to be addressed in order to further stabilise its multi-party democracybe addressed in order to further stabilise its multi-party democracy