Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for...
Transcript of Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for...
![Page 1: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader
University of Calgary Forum
Tim Weis, P.Eng., Ph.D.
Pembina Institute
Feb 13, 2014
![Page 2: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Disclaimer Pembina Institute does not have any
political affiliations
Information here is public
I like graphs
![Page 3: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
About the Pembina Institute 2010 marked the 25th anniversary of the Pembina Institute – born in the wake of the Lodgepole Sour Gas blowout.
![Page 4: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Grounded Research – and Work
Photos: Tim Weis, Andrew Pape-Salmon
![Page 5: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
About Tim
• Director of renewable energy and energy efficiency policy
• Professional Engineer
• M.Sc. research on ice adhesion to wind turbine blades in subarctic
• Ph.D. in off-grid renewable energy
Photos: Tim Weis, Pembina Institute
![Page 6: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Canada’s Energy Future & Climate Change
![Page 7: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
![Page 8: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Climate change…
“….could be the biggest global health
threat of the 21st century” The Lancet (one of the world's most respected general medical
journals)
“…the greatest economic challenge of
the 21st century.”
Christine Lagarde, managing director of IMF
8
![Page 9: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9 Source: Environment Canada GHG Forecast 2013
Canada’s commitments
![Page 10: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10 10
![Page 11: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11 11
400
200
800
1985 2005 2025 2045 0
600
Mt
C0
2 /
yr
![Page 12: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
We have a long way to go…
![Page 13: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Why is everyone picking on us?
![Page 14: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
9%
5%
16%
17%
51%
Newfoundlandandlabrador
PEI
NovaSco a
NewBrunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
Bri shColumbia
Yukon
NWT
Challenge & Opportunity– Electricity Sector GHG Emissions
Alberta
Reference National Inventory Report 2013
9%
5%
16%
17%
51%
Newfoundlandandlabrador
PEI
NovaSco a
NewBrunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
Bri shColumbia
Yukon
NWT
9%
5%
16%
17%
51%
Newfoundlandandlabrador
PEI
NovaSco a
NewBrunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
Bri shColumbia
Yukon
NWT
![Page 15: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Alberta 2012 GHG emissions
![Page 16: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Good news: Intensity Reduction Forecast
Source: IPPSA (2013) Trends in GHG Emissions in the Alberta Electricity Market
![Page 17: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Battle River 3
Sundance 1
HR Milner 1
Sundance 2
Battle River 4
Sundance 3
Sundance 4
Sundance 5
Sundance 6
Battle River 5
Keephills 1
Keephills 2
Sheerness 1
Genesee 1
Sheerness 2
Genesee 2
Genesee 3
Keephills 3
Federal Regulations – 50 yr limit
![Page 18: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Electricity sector emissions to grow
Source: IPPSA (2013) Trends in GHG Emissions in the Alberta Electricity Market
~14% below 2005
0
20
40
60
Mt
CO
2/y
r
![Page 19: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Air emissions
![Page 20: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Health damages from pollution
![Page 21: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Costs • USA - National Research Council at
request of 2005 Energy Policy Act • Non-climate damage:
• Effects of air pollution on human health, grain crop and timber yields, building materials, recreation, and visibility of outdoor vistas
• Average damages: 3.2 ¢/kWh (2008)
• Greenstone and Looney: • 3.4 ¢/kWh for non-climate damage (2010)
![Page 22: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
![Page 23: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Health damages from pollution
http://canadagazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p2/2012/2012-09-12/html/sor-dors167-eng.html
![Page 24: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
What does this have to do with renewable energy policy?
• Successful renewable
energy policies need to be
developed with the explicit
goal of making appreciable
change • Nova Scotia – reduce coal use
by half by 2020
• Ontario – phase out of coal
(2002-2014)
![Page 25: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
• Wind – 100,000+ MW • Hydro – 11,000 MW • Solar – Germany 28 TWh
in 2012 (1/2 physical size of AB)
• Others (geothermal, biomass, etc.)
• Current Alberta system • 14,000 MW installed • ~70 TWh
Renewables Potential
![Page 26: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Opportunities in Alberta
![Page 27: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
Opportunities in Alberta
![Page 28: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Fun with numbers
Based on solar PV already in Germany
Alberta 2X land mass of Germany
![Page 29: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
Falling Costs
Normalized price of solar PV modules SOURCE: RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY NETWORK (REN21)
![Page 30: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30
Preliminary Greening the Grid Update
![Page 31: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
High Levels of Wind Are Possible
![Page 32: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
The Art of the Possible
![Page 33: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
Alberta was a wind leader
![Page 34: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34
Policy Needs to Address Barriers to Renewables
Price Volatility/Uncertainty - Financing barrier
Policy Uncertainty/Competition
![Page 35: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
Alberta pricing data
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 5 10 15 20
Po
ol P
rice
($
/MW
h)
Time (h)
February 2011 Hourly Average Pool Price
Average Day
Windy Day
Weekday average price
Average – windy weekdays
![Page 36: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
36
Wind Discount – bad for wind, good for consumers
$64.32 $65.44
$92.05
$70.47
$158.54
$69.93
$37.78
$79.41
$104.28
$67.32
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
Entire Pool Coal Gas Cogen Peaker Hydro Wind Other SK Imports BC Imports
Average Price per MWh
Source: AESO Annual Market Data (2012)
![Page 37: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37
Solar on your roof – subsidized the grid in 2013
![Page 38: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38
Renewables Have a Different Market Model • Costs are up front
• Long-term costs are
stables/predictable
• Can’t pass prices onto consumers in
Alberta market
![Page 39: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
“You can have the
transmission
interconnection and
you can have the
turbines, but you still
need to sell the power.
We need a power
purchase agreement in
place and it needs to
be a long-term
agreement.”
-Dick Williams,
President, Shell Wind
Energy
![Page 40: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
40
Toward Policy Solutions in Alberta • Clear goals with that demonstrat results
• Policy needs to address barriers specific
to renewables • Access to financing
• Recognizing full value
• Foster community engagement and
education • Consumer programs
• Efficiency efforts
![Page 41: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41
Summary
• Major GHG reduction opportunity • Co-benefits of SOx, NOx, Hg, PM
• Potential to reduce health impacts in
overburdened airshed
• Alberta has plenty of renewable
options – but Business as Usual won’t
get us there • Policy is the key
![Page 42: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
42
42
50Hz
60Hz
60Hz
Ross Island Wind/Diesel
Courtesy of Powercorp, Australia
![Page 43: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
pembina.org
e: [email protected] / [email protected]
ph: 780.667.6519 / 587.897.6261
weis_renewables pembina.institute
![Page 44: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
44
![Page 45: Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader · 2014-02-28 · Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader University of Calgary Forum Tim Weis,](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042420/5f372e68fb07b0338f2831a0/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
45
Denmark • 52% wind by 2020
• 100% renewable electricity by 2035
• 100% renewable energy by 2050 • 171 Parliamentarians voted for 8 against.
• “The conclusion being it has a cost to make a green transformation, but it also has a cost not to do it. I think this will work out to be the best insurance Denmark has ever (bought).” • Energy Minister Lidegaard