Best Loser System and Proportional Representation

7/31/2019 Best Loser System and Proportional Representation

1/13

The Best Loser System and Proportional Representation By Dave Kissoondoyal

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Labour Party

MMM

MSM MMR MMM MSM Labour Party

PMXD

Labour Party

PMXD

MMM MSM Labour Party

MSM - PMSD

MMM-UNMMSD

1995 2000 2005 2010

Constituency PR 20 Seats PR 30 Seats

The Best Loser System (BLS) does not have its raison-dtre in a new electoral system as

formulated by the Sachs Commission.

The implementation of the Sachs recommendations requires the insertion, in our electoral

system, of a dose of proportional representation based on a party-list vote. This means that, in

addition to voting for the three candidates of his choice to represent him in Parliament, the

elector shall also vote for a party of his choice. And in voting for that party, he will be voting for

members of that party whose names appear on the party-list.

At paragraph 84, in its report, the Sachs Commission refers to this system as Model C ,

The third proposal, which we refer to as PR Model C, would allow for a greater degree of fairness

whilst still heavily favoring stability. This model would lean in favor of stability by ensuring that

the number of PR seats was limited to a figure not exceeding 30. Whether or not the BLS is

retained, the fact that there will be sixty-two members elected on a constituency basis and only a

maximum of thirty elected according to the compensatory PR system, will load the House heavily

on the side of the constituency form of representation. The exaggerated strength of the leading

party produced by the FPTP will further emphasise the relative strength in the House of such

party.

Thus, any party or alliance which gets close to 50% or more of the votes will be assured of such a

substantial number of constituency seats that its right to form a government could not be

threatened by the introduction of thirty PR seats. In the elections of 2000, the MSM/MMM

alliance got 58 out of 70 seats.


2/13

If, the PR Model C had been applied and the additional number of PR seats was 20, the alliance

would have ended up with a majority that could still have been more than 70%. If 30 PR seats had

been added, it would have ended up with a majority of nearly 60%. Thus, while strongly geared

towards protecting the right to form a government of the leader of a party that on its own gets

close to 50% of the national vote, or a pre-election alliance that leads with even a low percentage,

it would introduce a relatively significant correction to the present gross under-representation of

the opposition party or parties. It should be noted, however, that even if PR Model C would not

put at risk a party or alliance that received nearly half the votes cast, it could make a difference if

no single party or alliance received close to 50% or more of the votes. In such narrow

circumstances, it could, if three parties each got more than 10% of the vote, place the third party

in a position to form a postelectoral alliance with a second party so as to form a majority in the

House and thereby choose the Prime Minister. At this stage, one can only speculate on how any

system of PR would affect electoral and party behaviour. The practical effect of PR Model C might

well be to encourage the creation of postelection coalitions rather than pre-election alliances. At

the moment, the electoral system gives enormous, and many say, disproportionate, incentives to

form pre-election alliances. Some voters might see this as having the advantage of establishing a

balanced ticket known to the electorate in advance. The parties and the electorate generally,however, might prefer the extra degree of fluidity and voter-choice which PR Model C would

introduce.

After discussions among all the political parties in Mauritius, consensus has been reached as

follows:

1. Parties which reach the threshold of 7.5 % are going to be considered for the Proportional

Representation

2. The number of PR seats as per the party-list would be 20.

We are now going to apply the above in simulation to the past elections as from 1995 to 2010.

Let us take the example of the elections of 20th

December 1995 when the MMM Party had allied

with the Labour Party and we got the second 60-0 of this country.

The Labour Party MMM alliance obtained 1,084,236 votes, representing 65.17 percent

and secured 60 seats

The MSM-MMR alliance obtained 330,219 votes, representing 19.85 % and secured NO seat

at the assembly

The Gaetan Duval Party obtained 105,282 votes, representing 6.33 % and managed to get

one seat as Best Loser

The MMP/Hizbullah Party Alliance obtained only 3005 votes, representing 1.8 % and

managed to get one seat as Best Loser

Two other best loser seats, out of four, were secured by the Rodrigues Movement.

None of the BLS seats will be considered since the effects of the BLS will be already included in

the PR.


3/13

1995 ELECTIONS

Labour

Party-

MMM

Votes

Labour

Party-

MMM

Seats

MSM-

MMR

Votes

MSM-

MMR

Seats

Labour

Party-

MMM

Seats %

MSM-

MMR

Seats %

1084236 60 330219 0 100.00 0.00

Vote % 65.17 19.85

Relative % 76.65 23.35

Additional

Seat PR Value PR Value

1 17,774.36 60 330,219.00 1 98.36 1.64

2 17,774.36 60 165,109.50 2 96.77 3.23

3 17,774.36 60 110,073.00 3 95.24 4.76

4 17,774.36 60 82,554.75 4 93.75 6.25

5 17,774.36 60 66,043.80 5 92.31 7.69

6 17,774.36 60 55,036.50 6 90.91 9.097 17,774.36 60 47,174.14 7 89.55 10.45

8 17,774.36 60 41,277.38 8 88.24 11.76

9 17,774.36 60 36,691.00 9 86.96 13.04

10 17,774.36 60 33,021.90 10 85.71 14.29

11 17,774.36 60 30,019.91 11 84.51 15.49

12 17,774.36 60 27,518.25 12 83.33 16.67

13 17,774.36 60 25,401.46 13 82.19 17.81

14 17,774.36 60 23,587.07 14 81.08 18.92

15 17,774.36 60 22,014.60 15 80.00 20.00

16 17,774.36 60 20,638.69 16 78.95 21.05

17 17,774.36 60 19,424.65 17 77.92 22.0818 17,774.36 60 18,345.50 18 76.92 23.08

19 17,774.36 61 17,379.95 18 77.22 22.78

20 17,487.68 62 17,379.95 18 77.50 22.50

21 17,210.10 62 17,379.95 19 76.54 23.46

22 17,210.10 63 16,510.95 19 76.83 23.17

23 16,941.19 64 16,510.95 19 77.11 22.89

24 16,680.55 65 16,510.95 19 77.38 22.62

25 16,427.82 65 16,510.95 20 76.47 23.53

26 16,427.82 66 15,724.71 20 76.74 23.26

27 16,182.63 67 15,724.71 20 77.01 22.99

28 15,944.65 68 15,724.71 20 77.27 22.73

29 15,713.57 68 15,724.71 21 76.40 23.60

30 15,713.57 69 15,009.95 21 76.67 23.33


4/13

We would apply the formula from the recommendations of the Sachs Commission.

We are discarding from consideration all parties who have polled less than 7.5% of the total

votes cast

We divide the total number of votes polled by each party having polled 7.5% or more of the

votes [a] by the aggregate of one (1) and the number of candidates of that party who have been

returned at the level of the 21 constituencies (1+ b); The formula to be applied will therefore be [

a / (1+b)]. In other words, where a party has, say, 60 returned candidates at constituency level,

the number of votes polled by that party in respect of its party list is divided by 61. The result is

the PR figure.

The PR Figure of each party indicates whether that party is underrepresented. Where a

party has a high PR figure, this means that it is underrepresented and, as a result, the first

additional seat shall be allocated to the party with the highest PR figure;

Since the allocation of that first additional seat may have upset the representation ofparties, another PR figure needs to be recalculated by dividing the total number of votes polled

by that party (a) by the aggregate of one (1) and the number of seats held by that party as a result

of the previous exercise.

This process shall carry on until all 20 additional seats have been allocated. The following

tables indicate how the compensatory system would have worked

In the above table, the Party-list has been extended to 30 to allow a comparison in each election.

Therefore after the exercise of the additional seat allocation through PR, the setup post 1995General Elections would have been as follows:

Labour Party MMM = 62 Seats

MSM MMR = 18 Seats

Rodrigues People's Organisation = 2 seats

Total = 82 seats

SeatsParty Votes %

Constituency PR Total

Labour Party-MMM 1,084,236 65.17 60 2 62MSM-MMR 330,219 19.85 0 18 18

Gatan Duval Party 105,282 6.33 0 0

MMP-HP 28,749 1.73 0 0

Mauritian Militant Socialist

Movement 25,472 1.53 0 0

Rodrigues People's 16,631 1.00 2 2


5/13

Organisation

Rodrigues Movement 9,529 0.57 0 0

Muslim People's Front 8,233 0.49 0 0

Liberal Democrats' Movement 6,848 0.41 0 0

Natural Law Party 4,074 0.24 0 0

Liberal Action Party 3,332 0.20 0 0

Mauritian People's Party 2,505 0.15 0 0

Mauritian Movement for

Peace 1,630 0.10 0 0

Hizbullah 1,375 0.08 0 0

Movement for Justice 1,149 0.07 0 0

Mauritian Democratic

Movement 859 0.05 0 0

Socialist Movement of the

South 342 0.02 0 0

Hindu Etka Andolan Dul 307 0.02 0 0Republican Movement 281 0.02 0 0

Mauritian Democracy 259 0.02 0 0

Mauritian Workers'

Movement 212 0.01 0 0

Mauritius United Party 185 0.01 0 0

Mauritius Party Rights 100 0.01 0 0

Independents 32,007 1.92 0 0

Invalid/blank votes 8,805 - - -

Total valid votes 1,663,816

Total Voters 567,810 100.00 62 20 82

For a PR of 20 seats, 1995 elections

Labour Party MMM = 2 Seats from Party-List

MSM MMR = 18 Seats from Party-list


Labour Party MMM = 9 Seats from Party-List

MSM MMR = 21 Seats from Party-list


6/13

1995 Elections PR Results simulation

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

Number of seats

Pourcentage

Labour Party-MMM Votes Labour Party-MMM Seats MSM-MMR Votes MSM-MMR Seats

2000 Elections

In 2000, the MMM-MSM alliance received 951643 votes representing 51.70 percent of votes

whereas the Labour Party-PMXD alliance received 673145 votes representing 36.57 percent of

total votes. In terms of seats, the MMM-MSM alliance received 54 seats representing 90 percentof seats whereas the Labour Party-PMXD alliance received 6 seat representing 10 percent of total

seats.

2000 Elections

MSM-

MMM

Votes

MSM-

MM

M

Seats

Labour

Party-

PMXD

Votes

Labour

Party-

PMXD

Seats

MSM-

MM

M

Seats

%

Labour

Party-

PMXD

Seats%

951643 54 673145 6 90.00 10.00Vote % 51.70 36.57

Relative% 58.57 41.43

Add. Seat PR Value PR Value

1 17,302.60 54 96,163.57 7 88.52 11.48

2 17,302.60 54 84,143.13 8 87.10 12.90

3 17,302.60 54 74,793.89 9 85.71 14.29


7/13

4 17,302.60 54 67,314.50 10 84.38 15.63

5 17,302.60 54 61,195.00 11 83.08 16.92

6 17,302.60 54 56,095.42 12 81.82 18.18

7 17,302.60 54 51,780.38 13 80.60 19.40

8 17,302.60 54 48,081.79 14 79.41 20.59

9 17,302.60 54 44,876.33 15 78.26 21.74

10 17,302.60 54 42,071.56 16 77.14 22.86

11 17,302.60 54 39,596.76 17 76.06 23.94

12 17,302.60 54 37,396.94 18 75.00 25.00

13 17,302.60 54 35,428.68 19 73.97 26.03

14 17,302.60 54 33,657.25 20 72.97 27.03

15 17,302.60 54 32,054.52 21 72.00 28.00

16 17,302.60 54 30,597.50 22 71.05 28.95

17 17,302.60 54 29,267.17 23 70.13 29.87

18 17,302.60 54 28,047.71 24 69.23 30.77

19 17,302.60 54 26,925.80 25 68.35 31.6520 17,302.60 54 25,890.19 26 67.50 32.50

21 17,302.60 54 24,931.30 27 66.67 33.33

22 17,302.60 54 24,040.89 28 65.85 34.15

23 17,302.60 54 23,211.90 29 65.06 34.94

24 17,302.60 54 22,438.17 30 64.29 35.71

25 17,302.60 54 21,714.35 31 63.53 36.47

26 17,302.60 54 21,035.78 32 62.79 37.21

27 17,302.60 54 20,398.33 33 62.07 37.93

28 17,302.60 54 19,798.38 34 61.36 38.64

29 17,302.60 54 19,232.71 35 60.67 39.33

30 17,302.60 54 18,698.47 36 60.00 40.00


MMM MSM = 0 Seats from Party-List

Labour Party PMXD = 20 Seats from Party-list


MMM MSM = 0 Seats from Party-List

Labour Party PMXD = 30 Seats from Party-list


8/13

2000 Election PR Results Simulation

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

Number of Seats

Pourcentage

MSM-MMM Votes% MSM-MMM Seats% Labour Party- PMXD Votes% Labour Party- PMXD Seats%

2005 ELECTIONS

In 2005, the Labour-PMXD alliance received 948,766 votes representing 48.80 percent of total

votes whereas the MMM-MSM PMSD alliance received 829,460 votes representing 42.8560

percent of total votes. In terms of seats, the Labour-PMXD alliance received 38 seats representing63.33 percent of seats whereas the MMM-MSM PMSD alliance received 22 seat representing

36.67 percent of total seats.

2005 Elections

Labour-

PMXD

Votes

Labour-

PMXD

Seats

MMM -

MSM

PMSD

Votes

MMM

-

MSM

PMSD

Seats

Labour-

PMXD

Seats%

MMM -

MSM

PMSD

Seats%

948,766 38 829,460 22 63.33 36.67

Vote % 48.80 42.60Relative % 53.39 46.61

Additional


1 24,327.33 38 36,063.48 23 62.30 37.70

2 24,327.33 38 34,560.83 24 61.29 38.71

3 24,327.33 38 33,178.40 25 60.32 39.68


9/13

4 24,327.33 38 31,902.31 26 59.38 40.63

5 24,327.33 38 30,720.74 27 58.46 41.54

6 24,327.33 38 29,623.57 28 57.58 42.42

7 24,327.33 38 28,602.07 29 56.72 43.28

8 24,327.33 38 27,648.67 30 55.88 44.12

9 24,327.33 38 26,756.77 31 55.07 44.93

10 24,327.33 38 25,920.63 32 54.29 45.71

11 24,327.33 38 25,135.15 33 53.52 46.48

12 24,327.33 38 24,395.88 34 52.78 47.22

13 24,327.33 39 23,698.86 34 53.42 46.58

14 23,719.15 40 23,698.86 34 54.05 45.95

15 23,140.63 40 23,698.86 35 53.33 46.67

16 23,140.63 41 23,040.56 35 53.95 46.05

17 22,589.67 41 23,040.56 36 53.25 46.75

18 22,589.67 42 22,417.84 36 53.85 46.15

19 22,064.33 42 22,417.84 37 53.16 46.8420 22,064.33 43 21,827.89 37 53.75 46.25

21 21,562.86 43 21,827.89 38 53.09 46.91

22 21,562.86 44 21,268.21 38 53.66 46.34

23 21,083.69 44 21,268.21 39 53.01 46.99

24 21,083.69 45 20,736.50 39 53.57 46.43

25 20,625.35 45 20,736.50 40 52.94 47.06

26 20,625.35 46 20,230.73 40 53.49 46.51

27 20,186.51 46 20,230.73 41 52.87 47.13

28 20,186.51 47 19,749.05 41 53.41 46.59

29 19,765.96 48 19,749.05 41 53.93 46.07

30 19,362.57 48 19,749.05 42 53.33 46.67


Labour Party PMXD = 5 Seats from Party-List

MMM MSM = 15 Seats from Party-list


Labour Party PMXD = 10 Seats from Party-List

MMM MSM = 20 Seats from Party-list


10/13


0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

Number of Seats

Pourcentage

Labour-PMXD Votes Labour-PMXD Seats MMM - MSM PMSD Votes MMM - MSM PMSD Seats

2010 ELECTIONS

In 2010, the Labour Party-MSM- PMSD alliance received 1,001,903 votes representing 49.69

percent of total votes whereas the MMM-UN-MMSD alliance received 847,095 votes representing

42.01 percent of total votes. In terms of seats, the Labour Party-MSM- PMSD alliance received 41seats representing 68.33 percent of seats whereas the MSM-MMR alliance received 18 seats

representing 30 percent of total seats. The FSN scored 51161 votes with a percentage of 2.54 of

the total votes. In terms of seats, the FSN got one seat with a percentage of 1.67 out of total seats

MMM-

UN-

MMSD

Votes

MMM-

UN-

MMSD

Seats

Labour-

MSM-

PMSD

Votes

Labour-

MSM-

PMSD

Seats

MMM-

UN-

MMSD

SEATS

%

Labour-

MSM

PMSD

SEATS %

847,095 18 1,001,903 41 30.00 68.33Vote % 42.01 49.69

Relative

% 45.81 54.19

Add.


1 44,583.95 19 23,854.83 41 31.15 67.21


11/13

2 42,354.75 20 23,854.83 41 32.26 66.13

3 40,337.86 21 23,854.83 41 33.33 65.08

4 38,504.32 22 23,854.83 41 34.38 64.06

5 36,830.22 23 23,854.83 41 35.38 63.08

6 35,295.63 24 23,854.83 41 36.36 62.12

7 33,883.80 25 23,854.83 41 37.31 61.19

8 32,580.58 26 23,854.83 41 38.24 60.29

9 31,373.89 27 23,854.83 41 39.13 59.42

10 30,253.39 28 23,854.83 41 40.00 58.57

11 29,210.17 29 23,854.83 41 40.85 57.75

12 28,236.50 30 23,854.83 41 41.67 56.94

13 27,325.65 31 23,854.83 41 42.47 56.16

14 26,471.72 32 23,854.83 41 43.24 55.41

15 25,669.55 33 23,854.83 41 44.00 54.67

16 24,914.56 34 23,854.83 41 44.74 53.95

17 24,202.71 35 23,854.83 41 45.45 53.2518 23,530.42 35 23,854.83 42 44.87 53.85

19 23,530.42 36 23,300.07 42 45.57 53.16

20 22,894.46 36 23,300.07 43 45.00 53.75

21 22,894.46 37 22,770.52 43 45.68 53.09

22 22,291.97 37 22,770.52 44 45.12 53.66

23 22,291.97 38 22,264.51 44 45.78 53.01

24 21,720.38 38 22,264.51 45 45.24 53.57

25 21,720.38 38 21,780.50 46 44.71 54.12

26 21,720.38 39 21,317.09 46 45.35 53.49

27 21,177.38 39 21,317.09 47 44.83 54.02

28 21,177.38 40 20,872.98 47 45.45 53.4129 20,660.85 40 20,872.98 48 44.94 53.93

30 20,660.85 41 20,447.00 48 45.56 53.33


Labour Party MSM - PMSD = 2 Seats from Party-List

MMM-UNMMSD = 18 Seats from Party-list


Labour Party MSM - PMSD = 7 Seats from Party-List

MMM-UNMMSD = 23 Seats from Party-list


12/13


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70.00

80.00

60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

Number of Seats

Pourcentage

MMM-UN-MMSD Votes MMM-UN-MMSD Seats Labour Party-MSM- PMSD Votes Labour Party-MSM- PMSD Seats

The Simulation exercise can be summarized in the table below:

Date Party/Alliance Constituency

PR 20

Seats

PR 30

Seats

Labour Party MMM 60 2 9

1995 MSM MMR 0 18 21

MMM MSM 54 0 0

2000 Labour Party PMXD 6 20 30

Labour Party PMXD 38 5 10

2005 MMM MSM 22 15 20

Labour Party MSM -

PMSD 41 2 7

2010 MMM-UNMMSD 18 18 23


13/13

In the simulation exercise above on the past elections, we have seen the following:

In 1995, the MSM-MMR alliance could have elected 18 or 21 PR seats under PR 20 or PR 30

respectively

In 2000, the Labour Party PMXD alliance could have elected 20 or 30 PR seats under PR 20

or PR 30 respectively

In 2005, the MMM MSM alliance could have elected 15 or 20 PR seats under PR 20 or PR

30 respectively

In 2010, the MMM-UNMMSD alliance could have elected 18 or 23 PR seats under PR 20 or

PR 30 respectively

Since the high number of candidates is elected through the party list under the PR representative,

the party or alliance just need to ensure that the list they submit to the Electoral Commissioner is

inclusive of all communities cared so far under the Best Loser System. A list of 30 members is

much safer in this purpose.

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Labour Party

MMM

MSM MMR MMM MSM Labour Party

PMXD

Labour Party

PMXD

MMM MSM Labour Party

MSM - PMSD

MMM-UNMMSD

1995 2000 2005 2010

Constituency PR 20 Seats PR 30 Seats

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this document are those of the author (Dave Kissoondoyal) anddo not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to the MMM

Best Loser System and Proportional Representation

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