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Is it getting hot in here? Global Weather & 2016 Crop Outlooks Corey Cherr Head of Agriculture and Weather Research — Lanworth Commodities Research and Forecasts Thomson Reuters Chicago, Illinois

BEST LONG LEAD INDICATORS?

1. Temperature trend

2. El Niño, et. al.

3. Regional anomalies

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BEST LONG LEAD INDICATORS?

1. Corn: Unfavorable for 2016/17

2. Soy: Neutral to Unfavorable

3. Wheat: Positive

FEELING WARM?

Devia

tion

fro

m m

ea

n te

mp

era

ture

(°

C)

Ocean, N Hemisphere, Oct

Data source: NOAA

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Diffe

rence f

rom

mean tem

pera

ture

(℃

)

Data sources: Lanworth, NOAA

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Land, N Hemisphere, May-Aug

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Land, N Hemisphere, May-Aug

Ocean, N Hemisphere, May-Aug

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Land, N Hemisphere, May-Aug

Ocean, N Hemisphere, May-Aug

El Niño

La Niña

Stable/Cooling

1988

1998

2010 2012

2016,

likely

range

ITS GETTING HOT IN HERE…

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US CORN YIELD VS ENSO

Data sources: NOAA, USDA

5-20% below

Within 5%

5-20% above

Deviation from trend

corn yield, 1981-2014

20% or more below

Rainfall, June-August (mm)

Nig

htt

ime

te

mp

era

ture

Ju

ly-A

ugu

st

(°C

)

EL NIÑO & PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION: AUTUMN/WINTER

Negative PDO Positive PDO

La Niña

(Negative ENSO)

El Niño

(Positive ENSO)

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Jul-Aug 2013, 2014, 2015

PDO = +0.4

MID/LATE SUMMER

Jul-Aug 2010, 2011, 2012

PDO = -1.6

LATE SPRING

May 2010, 2011, 2012

PDO = -0.3

May 2013, 2014, 2015

PDO = +1.0

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MAY 2016: NEW CONFIGURATION

May 2016

PDO ≈ +1.5

Forming La Niña

(forming negative ENSO)

Still Positive PDO

ENSO PDO: PAST LAGS

1980’s: PDO = +1.5

1990’s: PDO = +1.7

2000’s: PDO = +1.6

May 2016

PDO ≈ +1.5

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1983

-22%

1984

0%

1988

-26%

1992

+7%

1995

-13%

2005

0%

PDO LAGS ENSO IN MAY, WHO WINS IN JULY AND AUGUST?

ENSO WINS

HOT DRY

WET

WET

WET WET

WET

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NOAA CPC

Mean annual temperature anomaly Last decade

+2.0°C

+1.3°C

+0.7°C

-0.7°C

-1.3°C

-2.0°C

2006-2016

minus

1981-2010

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Seasonal temperature anomaly Period of yield formation: Heat is negative

+2.0°C

+1.3°C

+0.7°C

-0.7°C

-1.3°C

-2.0°C

2006-2016

minus

1981-2010 June-

August

December-

February

June-August

December-

February

December-

February

September-

November

June-August

Seasonal temperature anomaly All periods: Net positive for high latitude wheat

December-February March-May June-August September-November

+2.0°C

+1.3°C

+0.7°C

-0.7°C

-1.3°C

-2.0°C

2006-2016

minus

1981-2010

Earlier, warmer spring Extended,

warmer autumn

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Seasonal temperature anomaly Early development for high latitude wheat

Regional weather & soil moisture anomalies Hugely favorable for Black Sea wheat

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Regional weather & soil moisture anomalies Favorable start for Australian wheat

WHAT TO REMEMBER

1. Hot, hot, hot in 2016/17

2. West hemisphere & high lat crops

• Temperature trend

• El Niño La Niña

• Regional anomalies

3. Outlook: Corn < Soy < Wheat

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