Bert Jagers - The Modern Life of a Model
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Transcript of Bert Jagers - The Modern Life of a Model
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The Modern Life of a Model
Bert Jagers
15 July 2015
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Outline
Brief history Current status and ongoing developments
Operational forecasting Integrated modelling Interactive exploration
15 July 2015
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The old days
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The old days
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Running models: models wrote letters
> edit input> mymodel1 < input> edit fort.7> conversion.bat> mymodel2
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Running models
With desktop environments came graphical user interfaces ...
Files remainedthe same, butinput generationbecame easier
Running a sequenceof models becamesometimes moredifficult due tothe GUIs...
15 July 2015
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These days
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Operational Forecasting
Primary focus is reliability and stability!
No fancy model interactions if not absolutely needed.Auditable: what happened
when and why?--> Usually file based
However, hardwiring makes thesystem hard to adjust, soincreasing use of exchangestandards.
15 July 2015
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Example: Delft-FEWS
http://oss.deltares.nl/web/delft-fews/
Delft-FEWS
General Adapter
Model
standardizedinput data
standardizedoutput data
Model Adapter
Modelmodelinput data
modeloutput data
The system preparesinput in a genericmanner and expectsoutput in standardizedformat.
It doesnt start the modelbut just a modelwrapper.
The wrapper triggers theactual computationand the necessaryconversion steps.
15 July 2015
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Example: DRIHM
http://www.drihm.eu
A cyberinfrastructure that allows researchers to experiment with forecasting chains across a heterogeneous architecture consisting of HPC, grid, cloud computing resources
MAP process toadd new models. Metadata Adaptors Portability
None of this is trivial, e.g. rapidly changing hardware architectures.
15 July 2015
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Sequential execution
Data
Results
Storage
Action
Action
Action
Action
However, all actions are still sequential: Great for auditing and stability. But not so great for performance.
However the part of the process (workflow) that cant be parallellized determines in the end the scalability
15 July 2015
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Tight coupling: models become more social
Why wait until one model has finished before starting the next model?
Numerous technologiesexist for exchanging dataat runtime all come with similarrequirements: make a(shared) library with initialize,run, finalize, get & set function
The challenge is stability in case of tight interaction
Can we find a solution?
OASIS
OMSHLA
15 July 2015
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More than just water
CONTROL
WAQ/ECO
WAVES
MORPHO
FLOW
RAINFALLRUNOFF
WINDTRANSPORT
GROUNDWATER
Many more processes that are interacting (at different geospatial scales)
assimilatingobservational
data
15 July 2015
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also data volumes and data types
Open geospatial data (e.g. Open Street Map) Satellite data (e.g. via Google Earth Engine) Lidar and 3D scans GEOSS data services New live data feeds (e.g. Twitter)
15 July 2015
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and model scale and detail
http://oss.delft3d.nl
15 July 2015
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Interactive modelling environments
Dont start, sit and wait but start, pause, reset, and interact with your model. Coupling your model not just to other models but also to dynamic user input for: Education / training (serious gaming) Iterative design Emergency planning
15 July 2015
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However, you may not have appropriate computing resources available locally.Can we do this web-based?--> Model Message Interfacehttps://www.nuget.org/packages/ModelMessageInterface/
MMI is based on BMI, JSON messages, and MQ protocol
MM
I wra
pper
From synchronous to asynchronous
ModelBMI interface
15 July 2015
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Visualizer
Visualizer
VisualizerController
VisualizerController
Asynchronous remote control
VisualizerController
MM
I wra
pper
ModelBMI interface
Your model starts to twitter and to post facebook updates
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Dependent component
Dependent component
Reusable for operational forecasting?
WorkflowManager
MM
I wra
pper Data providing
component
ModelBMI interface
Any dependent component may fail without influencing the rest of the data flow.
15 July 2015
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The future
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Who knows?
Using web-based modelling and Gogo Inflight, its just a small step to put your model in airplane mode
15 July 2015
The Modern Life of a ModelOutlineThe old days The old days Running models: models wrote lettersRunning modelsThese days Operational ForecastingExample: Delft-FEWSExample: DRIHMSequential executionTight coupling: models become more socialMore than just water also data volumes and data types and model scale and detailInteractive modelling environmentsFrom synchronous to asynchronousAsynchronous remote controlReusable for operational forecasting?The future Who knows?