Bernstein Energy Finding Petroleum: The Significance … Bernstein - Significance... ·...

29
BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas September 2012 Bernstein Energy Finding Petroleum: The Significance of Deep Water to Global Supply September 2012 See Disclosure Appendix of this publication for important disclosures and analyst certifications Oswald Clint Senior Research Analyst European & Russian Oil & Gas Oswald Clint PhD, ACA Senior Research Analyst [email protected] +44 20 7959 5089 Iain Pyle, CFA, ACA Senior Research Associate [email protected] +44 20 7170 0564 Rob West Senior Research Associate [email protected] +44 20 7170 0589

Transcript of Bernstein Energy Finding Petroleum: The Significance … Bernstein - Significance... ·...

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

Bernstein Energy

Finding Petroleum: The Significance of Deep Water to Global Supply

September 2012

See Disclosure Appendix of this publication for important disclosures and analyst certifications

Oswald Clint

Senior Research Analyst

European & Russian Oil & Gas

Oswald Clint PhD, ACA Senior Research Analyst

[email protected] +44 20 7959 5089

Iain Pyle, CFA, ACA Senior Research Associate

[email protected] +44 20 7170 0564

Rob West Senior Research Associate

[email protected] +44 20 7170 0589

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

Industry appetite for exploration continues to remain high

1

Source: Rystad, Company Reports and Bernstein Analysis

Global Exploration Spend

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2011

Glo

bal E

xplo

ratio

n S

pend ($B

n)

North America South America East Asia Western Europe West Africa

South East Asia North Africa Australia Russia South & East Africa

South Asia Middle East Eastern Europe Central Asia Southern Europe

Caribbean Oceania Central America

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

Over the last 10 years almost 50% of global discovered conventional oil & natural gas resources have come from deepwater

2

Source: IHS, AAPG, Company Reports and Bernstein Analysis

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2012

Reso

urc

e D

isco

veri

es (B

n b

oe)

Year

Shallow/onshore Bn boe Deep water Bn boe World Oil + Gas Consumption (Bn Boe)

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

The GoM has moved from predominantly shallow-water pro/aggradational plays into deepwater fans and turbidite systems

3

2001

2011

Source: BOEM, Bernstein Mapping

History of Gulf of Mexico

Production

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

The “average barrel” discovered so far in 2012 is at 1500m of water depth

4

1538

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We

igh

ted

Ave

rage W

ate

r D

ep

th P

er N

ew

B

arr

el o

f O

il D

isco

ve

red

(m

)

Source: World Oil, IHS, Company reports and Bernstein estimates

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

Deepwater and frontier areas have yielded the largest discoveries recently

5

150175

280

595

0

100

200

300

400

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600

700

0 - 500m 500 -1000m

1000 -1500m

1500m+

Fie

v Y

ear A

ve

rag

e D

isccovery

Siz

e (2007-2

012)

(Mb

oe

)

711

283

95

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Frontier Standard Mature

Ave

rag

e D

isco

very

Siz

e (M

bo

e)

Source: World Oil, IHS, Company reports and Bernstein estimates

Average Discovery Size By Water

Depth Band

Average Discovery Size By Play

Maturity

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012 6

We have entered a phase of exploration characterised by large discoveries within every water depth category

Source: World Oil, IHS, Company reports and Bernstein estimates

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

The world’s “average oil bbl” is produced in 100m of water, with c70% produced onshore, c24% in shallow water & 7% from deeper water

7

Source: Rystad Energy, Bernstein Analysis

0%

10%

20%

30%

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50%

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100%

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120

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2008

2010

2012

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f W

orl

d O

il S

up

ply

Ave

rag

e D

epth

(m

)

Water Depth of the World's Average Bbl of production Proportion Onshore

Proportion Deeper Water (>500m) Proportion Shallow Water

Percentage of Oil Production From Different Water Depths and Water

Depth of the “Average” Bpd of Supply

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012 8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

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20

30

40

50

60

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1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

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1977

1978

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1981

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2004

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2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f W

orl

d O

il S

up

ply

Avera

ge D

ep

th (

m)

Water Depth of the World's Average Bbl of production Proportion Onshore

Proportion Deeper Water (>500m) Proportion Shallow Water

Source: Rystad Energy, Bernstein Analysis

Percentage of Natural Gas Production From Different Water Depths and Water

Depth of the “Average” Bpd of Supply

The world’s “average gas bbl” is produced in 60m of water, with c70% produced onshore, c21% in shallow water & 3% from deeper water

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

Is the outlook for deepwater supply today like the history of shallow water offshore production in the 1970s?

9

Source: Rystad Energy, Bernstein Analysis

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

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70,000

80,000

90,000

1970

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1972

1973

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1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

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1991

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1999

2000

2001

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2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Pro

du

cti

on

(kb

pd)

Land Very Shallow Water (<50m) Shallow Water Offshore (50-500m)

Medium Water Depth (500-1000m) Deep Water (1000-2250m) Ultra Deep Water (>2250m)

Analagous points?

Production from Different Categories of Water Depth

(1970-2012)

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

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1978

1979

1980

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1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

Oil P

rod

ucti

on

Fro

m F

ield

s a

bo

ve 1

00m

wate

r d

ep

th (kb

pd

)

United Kingdom Norway Brazil United States Azerbaijan Other

Is deepwater oil production today like offshore production in the mid-80s?

10

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Oil P

rod

ucti

on

Fro

m F

ield

s A

bo

ve 1

000m

wate

r d

epth

(kb

pd)

Brazil United States Angola NigeriaGhana Malaysia Cote d'Ivoire IndiaCongo Indonesia

Source: Rystad Energy, Bernstein Analysis

Deepwater (>1000m) Oil

Production History Offshore (>100m) Oil Production

History In the mid-1980s

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

Deepwater oil production remains the realm of the Majors

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0

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60001991

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Oil P

rod

ucti

on

Fro

m W

ate

r D

ep

th >

500m

Petrobras ExxonMobil BP Chevron Shell Total Statoil

Eni BHP Billiton Hess Murphy Oil CNOOC Anadarko Plains E&P

Tullow Oil Marathon Oil Sinopec Repsol Other

Source: Company reports and Bernstein Analysis

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1992

1993

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1995

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1997

1998

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2002

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2004

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2006

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2012E

Exp

lora

tio

n S

pend

/ O

rganic

Up

str

eam

Cap

ex

Offshore exploration and development may be more expensive than onshore, but the Majors want to do more of it

12

$5-7 M

$20-25 M

$50-70 M

$100-150 M

$250M

0 100 200 300

Onshore Mature

Onshore Frontier

Offshore Mature

Offshore Frontier

Zaedyus-1

Average Well Costs Today ($M)

Costs of Onshore vs Offshore

Exploration

European Integrateds’ Spending on

Exploration as a % of Upstream Capex

Source: Company Reports, Bernstein Analysis

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

The Majors have rushed in to secure sub-salt Angolan acreage

13

Kwanza Basin Pre-Salt Acreage By Holder

Block 21. (41% Cobalt)

Block 23. (50% Maersk)

Block 22. (30% Repsol, 20% Statoil)

Block 8. (50% Maersk)

Block 9. (40% Cobalt)

CameiaBicuar Prospect

Azul-1 (E)

Block 24. (50% BP)

Block 25. (35% TOTAL, 20% Statoil, 15% BP)

Block 19. (50% BP)

Block 20. (40% Cobalt,

20% BP)

Block 36. (30% ConocoPhillips)

Block 35. (30% Eni, 25% Repsol) .

Block 37. (30% ConocoPhillips)

Block 38. (55% Statoil)

Block 39. (55% Statoil, 15% TOTAL)

Block 40. (50% TOTAL, 20% Statoil)

Deepwater Blocks - >2000m

Intermediate Depth - 100m - 2000m

Shallow Water Blocks - c100m

Kw

anza

Basi

nB

enguela

Basi

nN

am

ibe

Basi

nLow

er C

ongo

Basi

n

SCBSeismic Sections

Block17 North: Key risk is sediment

overburden which may increase thermal maturity and limit drilling

South: Key risk is basin width and rapid transition to depth, which may have limited carbonate growth

East: Key risk is salt evacuation which may limit effective seal

Source: Sonangol, Company Reports, Bernstein Analysis

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

Deepwater developments are associated with high decline rates – though it varies by basin

14

-12.2%-9.3%

-27.3%

-22.6%-20.1%

-21.7%

-46.3%

-34.0%

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

UK Norway Gulf of Mexico(shallow water)

Gulf of Mexico (deepwater)

Me

dia

n y

-o-y

Ch

an

ge in

Pro

ducti

on

(%

)

All Fields Declining Fields With No New Wells

Source: BOEM, DECC, NPD, Bernstein Analysis

Average Decline Rates By Basin

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

Production profiles from GoM wells categorized by water depth

15

817

1,738

3,653

9,048

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1000

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9000

10000 -1

1 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9

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59

Pro

du

cti

on

(b

pd)

Months From Peak Production

<100m water depth 100-250m 250-500m 500-1000m 1000-2000m Above 2000m

Source: BOEM, Bernstein Analysis

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

The “peakier” production profile of a GoM well is actually more valuable than that of a lower-peak:lower-decline North Sea counterpart

16

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

Compared with US GoM deepwater / subsalt Phase I production wells, Brazil’s pre-salt has 5kbpd faster flow rates and less variability in output

17

Source: Pre-salt.com, Company reports, BOEM, Bernstein estimates

0

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60T

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ors

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002

Th

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ors

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TA

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Tah

iti -

PS

001

Th

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ors

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orth -

TC

001

Bale

ia…

Cari

mbe

Th

un

der H

ors

e -

TA

004

Marl

in

Jubart

e

Mad

Do

g -

A002

Lula

-2

Tah

iti -

PS

003

Lula

-1

Guara

Tah

iti -

SS

001

Lula

-3

Atlan

tis -

DC

114

Atlan

tis -

DC

122

Sp

iderm

an -

SS

001

Atlan

tis -

DC

143

Tah

iti -

PN

001

Atlan

tis -

DC

124

Atlan

tis -

DC

111

Mad

Do

g -

A001

Gre

at W

hite -

GB

003

Atlan

tis -

DC

123

Bra

va

Gre

at W

hite -

GB

004

Atlan

tis -

DC

112

Atlan

tis -

DC

113

Tah

iti -

PN

002

Mad

Do

g -

A004

Bra

zil P

re-S

alt W

ells

US

Go

M W

ells

UK

No

rth

Sea

Mo

nth

ly P

rod

ucti

on p

er w

ell (kb

oed

)

Brazilian fieldsUS GoM fields

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

NPVs of deepwater developments such as Brazil can be highly attractive, especially if FPSO deployment is rapid and flow rates remain strong

18

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920

Re

main

ing

NP

V /

Barr

el

Years from Field Discovery

Remaining NPV / Barrel Profile Over Development Life of Brazil and Angola

Pre-Salt Projects

Angola Pre-Salt DevelopmentBrazil Pre-Salt Development

New FPSO

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

16,500

21 23 25 27 29 31

Initial Flow Rate for Phase 1 Production Wells (kbpd)

Pro

ject N

PV

($M

)

+1.4% / kbpd

2.8

4.4

5.133

22

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1 2 3 Tim

e F

rom

Dis

co

very

To

Pro

du

ce th

e A

vera

ge

Barr

el (

Years

)

NP

V /

Barr

el fo

r n

ew

Bra

zilia

n p

re-s

alt

D

isco

veri

es ($/b

bl)

Number of FPSOs in Development Plan

NPV / Barrel Number of Years Until Average Barrel's Production

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012 19

Deepwater Revenue Opportunity

Source: ODS-Petrodata and Bernstein estimates

Based on normalized deepwater rate of $400,000/day and 95% utilization, we estimate the deepwater

revenue opportunity for oil services industry to rise to $27 B in 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2009 Current 2014E

Deep

wate

r A

cti

ve R

ig C

ou

nt

U.S. Gulf of Mexico

Latin America

Africa

Europe

India

Far & SE Asia

Australia

Other

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2005 2009 2011E 2014E

Est.

Deep

wate

r S

erv

ice R

even

ue

Op

po

rtu

nit

y ($ m

illio

n)

U.S. Gulf of Mexico

Latin America

Africa

Europe

India

Far & SE Asia

Australia

Other

Growth Opportunity

Deepwater Rig Count by Region Estimated Deepwater Revenue

Potential for Services

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000

Marg

inal C

ost ($

/bb

l)

Oil Production (mbd)

ECA,RIL,

BG

INPEX

WPL,PTTEP

XO

M

CE

O

STL

RD

SA

OSH

CV

X

TO

T

EN

I

DVN

PB

R CO

P

BP

TLW

PT

R ON

GC

NFX,NBL

DNR

SN

P

APC,ERF

PE

ME

X

NXY

OXY

APA

CNQ

PTR

PB

R

XO

M

TO

T

CV

X

The Marginal Cost of Supply is the best predictor of oil prices justified by the fundamentals and was c$90 / barrel in 2011

20

Source: Company Reports, Bernstein Estimates

Marginal Cost of Supply Curve

2011

2010

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012 21

The marginal cost of oil production has risen 14%/yr for the past decade

Source: Company Reports, Bernstein Estimates

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012 22

Oil Prices Should Continue Their Upward Trend From Here

Source: Bloomberg and Bernstein estimates

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Bre

nt O

il ($

/bb

l)

Oil Price Estimated Marginal Cost SCB Forecast Oil Price Futures

Bernstein Brent Oil Price Forecast:

2012: $105/bbl2013: $112/bbl2014: $113/bbl2015: $115/bbl

Future curve and SCB estimates diverge

out to 2015

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

While deepwater exploration investment and success has risen, it is increasingly about natural gas

23

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1968

1971

1973

1976

1979

1982

1984

1987

1990

1993

1995

1998

2001

2004

2006

2009

2012

Deep

wate

r d

isco

very

wate

r d

ep

th (

ft)

Diameter is proportional to discovery size (Mboe)

= Oil

= Gas

Ultra Deepwater

Deepwater

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1968

1971

1973

1976

1979

1982

1984

1987

1990

1993

1995

1998

2001

2004

2006

2009

2012

Deep

wate

r d

isco

very

wate

r d

ep

th (

ft)

Diameter is proportional to discovery size (Mboe)

Global - ex Brazil, E Africa and Mediterranean

Brazil

E. Africa Gas

Mediterranean Gas

Ultra Deepwater

Deepwater

Source: IHS, Press reports, Company reports and Bernstein Analysis

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012 24

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17M

ar-

05

Jun

-05

Sep

-05

Dec-0

5

Mar-

06

Jun

-06

Sep

-06

Dec-0

6

Mar-

07

Jun

-07

Sep

-07

Dec-0

7

Mar-

08

Jun

-08

Sep

-08

Dec-0

8

Mar-

09

Jun

-09

Sep

-09

Dec-0

9

Mar-

10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

Dec-1

0

Mar-

11

Jun

-11

Sep

-11

Dec-1

1

Mar-

12

Jun

-12

Natu

ral

gas p

rice ($/m

cf)

Natural Gas Prices

UK Spot Euro Spot US Spot Russian Oil-Linked

Norwegian Oil-Linked Japan LNG Price Russian FTS

If gas prices stay at these elevated levels in Asia and Europe then companies are still willing to develop these resources

Source: IHS, Press reports, Company reports and Bernstein Analysis

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

The Future of Deepwater Production

25

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,0001970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Pro

du

cti

on

(kb

pd)

Land Very Shallow Water (<50m) Shallow Water Offshore (50-500m)

Medium Water Depth (500-1000m) Deep Water (1000-2250m) Ultra Deep Water (>2250m)

Analagous points?

Source: Company reports and Bernstein Analysis

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012 26

Disclosure Appendix

BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012 27

Disclosure Appendix

SRO REQUIRED DISCLOSURES

References to "Bernstein" relate to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC, Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, and Sanford C. Bernstein, a unit of AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited, collectively.

Bernstein analysts are compensated based on aggregate contributions to the research franchise as measured by account penetration, productivity and proactivity of investment ideas. No analysts are

compensated based on performance in, or contributions to, generating investment banking revenues.

Bernstein rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 6-12 months versus the S&P 500 for stocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the MSCI Pan Europe Index for

stocks listed on the European exchanges (except for Russian companies), versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index for Russian companies and stocks listed on emerging markets exchanges outside of

the Asia Pacific region, and versus the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan) exchanges - unless otherwise specified. We have three categories of ratings:

Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp in the year ahead.

Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp in the year ahead.

Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp in the year ahead.

Not Rated: The stock Rating, Target Price and estimates (if any) have been suspended temporarily.

As of 02/03/2011, Bernstein's ratings were distributed as follows: Outperform - 42.9% (1.6% banking clients) ; Market-Perform - 49.4% (1.4% banking clients); Underperform - 7.7% (0.0% banking clients); Not

Rated - 0.0% (0.0% banking clients). The numbers in parentheses represent the percentage of companies in each category to whom Bernstein provided investment banking services within the last twelve

(12) months.

David Vos maintains a long position in Cadaogan Petroleum (CAD.LN)

Accounts over which Bernstein and/or their affiliates exercise investment discretion own more than 1% of the outstanding common stock of the following companies BG/.LN / BG Group PLC, PMO.LN / Premier

Oil PLC, TLW.LN / Tullow Oil PLC, BP / BP PLC, BP/.LN / BP PLC, FP.FP / TotalFinaElf SA, TOT / Total SA, RDS/A / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDS/B / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.LN / Royal Dutch

Shell PLC, RDSA.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC.

The following companies are or during the past twelve (12) months were clients of Bernstein, which provided non-investment banking-securities related services and received compensation for such services

BG/.LN / BG Group PLC, BP / BP PLC, BP/.LN / BP PLC, FP.FP / TotalFinaElf SA, TOT / Total SA.

In the next three (3) months, Bernstein or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from OGZD.LI / Gazprom OAO, LKOD.LI / LUKOIL, ROSN.LI / Rosneft

Oil Co, NVTK.LI / NovaTek OAO, SGGD.LI / Surgutneftegaz, BG/.LN / BG Group PLC, CNE.LN / Cairn Energy PLC, GALP.PL / Galp Energia SGPS SA, PMO.LN / Premier Oil PLC, TLW.LN / Tullow Oil

PLC, BP / BP PLC, BP/.LN / BP PLC, E / ENI SpA, EAD.FP / European Aeronautic Defense, ENI.IM / ENI SpA, FP.FP / TotalFinaElf SA, TOT / Total SA, RDS/A / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDS/B / Royal

Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC.

This research publication covers six or more companies. For price chart disclosures, please visit www.bernsteinresearch.com, you can also write to either: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC, Director of

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BernsteinResearch.com European/Russian Oil & Gas – September 2012

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CERTIFICATIONS

I/(we), Oswald Clint, Ph.D., ACA, Senior Analyst(s)/Analyst(s), certify that all of the views expressed in this publication accurately reflect my/(our) personal views about any and all of the subject securities or

issuers and that no part of my/(our) compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views in this publication.

Copyright 2011, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC, Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, and AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited, subsidiaries of AllianceBernstein L.P. ~ 1345 Avenue of the Americas ~ NY, NY 10105 ~ 212/756-4400. All rights reserved.

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the reported information or in the opinions herein. This publication was prepared and issued by Bernstein for distribution to eligible counterparties or professional clients. This publication is not an offer to buy or

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