Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices ... - Manhattan Real Estate · While this report will provide a...

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MANHATTAN MARKET REPORT

1st Quarter 2018

RESALE

bhhsnyp.com

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LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT

Just like the unpredictability of the weather these past months, residential real estate activity in the first quarter of 2018 acted in the same fashion. World events, political turmoil, extreme swings in the financial markets, and overall consumer confidence has made it difficult for analysts to predict where our market is going. However, a comprehensive analysis comparing this year’s first quarter to prior quarters and last year can help you prepare and strategize, if you are thinking of buying or selling a home over the next six months.

It is our goal at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties, to continue to bring you reports that are simple and easy to understand, while providing the most accurate and relevant information to help you achieve your goals.

For example, if you are a townhouse owner on the Upper West Side, Midtown or Downtown, property values have increased between 25% and 48%, while the Upper East Side has decreased by 9% based on median closed sales price year over year comparisons.

In the first quarter of 2018, condominium and cooperative strengths in the market place were a direct reflection of the continued lack of listing inventory in both categories. If you are planning to sell your home, this is your time. Buyers, be prepared for potential multiple offers and competition.

While this report will provide a strong overview of the Manhattan resale market in the first quarter of 2018, your real estate needs are unique and we recommend speaking with your Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties real estate professional to answer any questions and provide tailored advice for your particular circumstances. Additionally, our exceptional partnership with Perchwell allows us to prepare custom market reports based on your customized neighborhood, amentity, and pricing considerations.

We are so proud to be part of the HomeServices of America familiy and hope you will join us in celebrating our successes in 2017, including our ranking as the #2 real estate brokerage in the United States.

Sincerely,

Ellie Johnson

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties212.710.1900590 Madison AvenueNew York, New York 10022

Ellie Johnson | [email protected]

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MAJOR MARKET PERFORMANCEmedian closed sales price and year over year comparison

Q1 2018 Market Report MANHATTAN

Upper Manhattan

Condo $795,000 s 4.4%

Co-op $552,500 r 8.3%

Townhouse $1,912,500 s 22%

Upper East Side

Condo $1,400,000 s 4.3%

Co-op $1,012,000 r 26.5%

Townhouse $11,375,000 s 9%

Downtown

Condo $1,800,500 s 2.7%

Co-op $950,000 r 1.9%

Townhouse $9,665,393 r 31%

Upper West Side

Condo $1,330,000 s 11.3%

Co-op $960,000 r 11.6%

Townhouse $13,100,000 r 25%

Midtown

Condo $1,300,000 = 0%

Co-op $679,000 r 0.6%

Townhouse $7,375,000 r 48%

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MARKET SNAPSHOT BY TYPE

CONDO

CO-OP

TOWNHOUSE

NEW LISTINGS

The total number of new listings on the market this quarter increased dramatically as compared to the previous quarter. All three property types saw an increase of over 40% (condos 44.67%, co-ops 48.95%, townhouses 43.24%). The final quarter of 2017 saw significantly fewer listings come to market, partially due to the uncertainty before the passing of the federal tax bill. Sellers who may have decided to hold their properties through the end of 2017 took action in early 2018 which contrib-uted to the significant increase.

Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the number of new listings on the market saw modest changes across the three property types (condos down 7.79%, co-ops down 1.09%, townhouses up 6%).

METRIC Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 QoQ% YoY%

Average Listed Price $2,769,513 $3,347,973 $2,921,077 -17.28% -5.19%

Median Listed Price $1,700,000 $1,795,000 $1,800,000 -5.29% -5.56%

Average SF 1,406 1,547 1,411 -9.15% -0.37%

Average PPSF $1,800 $1,892 $1,874 -4.87% -3.97%

# of New Listings 1,195 826 1,296 44.67% -7.79%


Average Listed Price $1,726,983 $1,896,361 $1,717,525 -8.93% 0.55%

Median Listed Price $925,000 $925,000 $949,000 0.00% -2.53%

Average SF 1,253 1,342 1,166 -6.62% 7.52%

Average PPSF $1,208 $1,227 $1,162 -1.59% 3.92%

# of New Listings 1,634 1,097 1,652 48.95% -1.09%


Average Listed Price $10,370,154 $12,660,000 $11,910,182 -18.09% -12.93%

Median Listed Price $7,225,000 $7,950,000 $7,100,000 -9.12% 1.76%

Average SF 5,579 6,174 6,185 -9.63% -9.80%

Average PPSF $1,826 $1,949 $1,900 -6.29% -3.88%

# of New Listings 106 74 100 43.24% 6.00%

% year over year

Median Listed Price

Median Listed Price

Median Listed Price

# of New Listings

# of New Listings

# of New Listings

5.6%

2.5%

1.8%

7.8%

1.1%

6%


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MARKET SNAPSHOT BY TYPEMEDIAN LISTED PRICE BY TYPE

NEW LISTINGS

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS BY TYPE

• The total number of new listings decreased for both co-ops and condos as compared to the same quarter previous year, with condos seeing a significant 8% drop.

• The most significant change was shown in the number of new listings as compared to the prior quarter across all property types: 43% increase in townhouses, 44% increase in condos and a 48% increase in co-ops.

TOWNHOUSE

CO-OP

CONDO

TOWNHOUSE


0

200

400

600

800

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1200

1400

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2017

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2017

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Jan

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8

Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018

$0.6M

$0.8M

$1.0M

$1.2M

$1.4M

$1.6M

$1.8M

$2.0M

Jan

2017

Feb

2017

Mar

201

7

April

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May

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Oct

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Nov

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Dec

2017

Jan

2018

Feb

2018

Mar

201

8

$5.0M

$6.0M

$7.0M

$8.0M

$9.0M

$10.0M

$11.0M

Jan

2017

Feb

2017

Mar

201

7

April

201

7

May

201

7

June

201

7

July

201

7

Aug

2017

Sept

201

7

Oct

201

7

Nov

201

7

Dec

2017

Jan

2018

Feb

2018

Mar

201

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CO-OP

CONDO

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CONDO

CO-OP

TOWNHOUSE

CONTRACTS SIGNED

% year over year

The condo market saw the biggest decrease in number of contracts signed, dropping almost a third from the same quarter previous year. In the same time period, the listing discount expanded to -7.8% indicating a change of 38% from the same quarter previous year.


Average Last Listed Price $2,418,049 $2,268,128 $2,343,236 6.61% 3.19%

Median Last Listed Price $1,500,000 $1,457,500 $1,525,000 2.92% -1.64%

Listing Discount* -7.78% -6.55% -5.63% 18.85% 38.23%

Median PPSF $1,582 $1,582 $1,629 -0.01% -2.89%

# of Contracts 481 599 709 -19.70% -32.16%

Average DOM 110 105 107 4.58% 1.98%

% year over yearMedian LastListed Price

# of Contracts

1.6%

32.2%

3 daysAverage DOM

% year over year

% year over year

This quarter, the co-op market pricing remained remarkably steady in comparison to the same quarter previous year. Although the number of contracts signed fell 17%, the median and average last listed prices did not see a significant change. Average days on market increased 7 days as compared to same quarter previous year and 16 days as compared to the previous quarter.

The townhouse market showcased the largest change as compared to the same quarter previous year. Median last listed price fell 12%, median price per square foot shifted to $1,315 showing a decrease of almost 19%. These factors, combined with an average increase of 14 days on the market, show a market in transition.

# of Contracts

# of Contracts

0%

11.9%

17.3%

0%

7 days

14 days

Average DOM

Average DOM


* Note: Listing Discount (also known as Listing Premium) calculated based on last asking price of a listing once it goes into contract relative to original asking price.


Average Last Listed Price $1,429,220 $1,277,616 $1,396,562 11.87% 2.34%

Median Last Listed Price $850,000 $825,000 $850,000 3.03% 0.00%


Median PPSF $1,094 $1,033 $1,058 5.85% 3.41%

# of Contracts 887 943 1,073 -5.94% -17.33%

Average DOM 96 80 89 19.46% 7.62%


Average Last Listed Price $6,565,588 $7,777,313 $9,169,583 -15.58% -28.40%

Median Last Listed Price $4,995,000 $6,697,500 $5,672,500 -25.42% -11.94%

Listing Discount* -3.46% -10.08% -11.27% -65.68% -69.29%

Median PPSF $1,315 $1,099 $1,613 19.67% -18.52%

# of Contracts 36 32 36 12.50% 0.00%

Average DOM 171 136 157 25.83% 8.92%

Median LastListed Price

Median LastListed Price

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CONTRACTS SIGNED

NUMBER OF CONTRACTS & MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE BY TYPE

NUMBER OF CONTRACTS & MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE

TOWNHOUSE

• Comparing year over year change, the number of contracts signed in the townhouse market had little change especially considering the small sample size.

• It is the median last listed price which saw the biggest change quarter over quarter and year over year with decreases of 25% and 12% respectively.

• Althought median last listed price stood 1.6% below the same quarter previous year, the condo market prices saw growth quarter over quarter.

• Both the condo and co-op markets saw significant drops in the number of contracts signed this quarter; clearly illustrated in the chart on the left. January 2018 had the fewest contracts signed out of the past 15 months.

CONDO, NUMBER OF CONTRACTS

CONDO, MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE

CO-OP, MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE

CO-OP, NUMBER OF CONTRACTS

NUMBER OF CONTRACTS

MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE


$0.0M

$0.5M

$1.0M

$1.5M

$2.0M

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7Ap

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CONDO

CO-OP

$0.0M

$2.0M

$4.0M

$6.0M

$8.0M

$10.0M

$12.0M

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MARKET SNAPSHOT BY PRICE AND BEDROOM

CONTRACTS SIGNED

% NUMBER OF CONTRACTS BY PRICE

• The most considerable changes in market by price was within contracts signed under $1M. Compared with the same quarter previous year, the percentage of contracts <$500K shrunk 1.6%, whereas the percentage of signed contracts between $500K - $1M rose 2%. These shifts represented the only two range percentage changes over 1%.

• In the ultra-luxury market ($20M+), the change year over year was minimal.

PRICE RANGE Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q1 2017

<$500K 10.6% 12.1% 12.2%

$500K-1M 36.1% 35.9% 34.0%

$1M-2M 26.1% 26.3% 27.1%

$2M-3M 9.2% 9.5% 9.6%

$3M-5M 6.6% 6.7% 7.2%

$5M-10M 4.8% 3.5% 4.2%

$10M-20M 1.2% 1.4% 0.9%

$20M+ 0.5% 0.1% 0.4%

CONTACTS SIGNED BY BEDROOM: CONDO

CONTACTS SIGNED BY BEDROOM: CO-OP


BEDROOMS METRIC Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2017 QoQ% YoY%

1 bedroom Median Last List Price $1,035,000 $1,007,444 $1,027,000 $1,079,000 $1,100,000 2.74% -5.91%

% Market Share 32.2% 38.2% 41.6% 36.8% 33.9% -15.71% -4.80%

2 bedrooms Median Last List Price $1,850,000 $1,998,000 $1,847,000 $1,995,000 $1,895,000 -7.41% -2.37%

% Market Share 36.6% 32.6% 30.5% 36.5% 37.0% 12.40% -0.98%

3 bedrooms Median Last List Price $3,950,000 $3,547,500 $3,395,000 $3,495,000 $3,372,500 11.35% 17.12%

% Market Share 15.2% 13.4% 14.3% 13.0% 15.0% 13.64% 1.51%

4+ bedrooms Median Last List Price $8,750,000 $7,750,000 $5,247,500 $5,947,500 $6,175,000 12.90% 41.70%

% Market Share 6.2% 4.8% 3.4% 5.6% 5.5% 28.83% 13.39%


1 bedroom Median Last List Price $700,000 $699,000 $699,000 $749,000 $715,000 0.14% -2.10%

% Market Share 40.0% 38.8% 37.7% 39.1% 37.2% 3.12% 7.63%

2 bedrooms Median Last List Price $1,395,000 $1,412,500 $1,280,000 $1,375,000 $1,312,444 -1.24% 6.29%

% Market Share 28.7% 29.2% 30.4% 29.6% 30.0% -1.42% -4.20%

3 bedrooms Median Last List Price $2,499,999 $2,350,000 $2,447,000 $2,395,000 $2,495,000 6.38% 0.20%

% Market Share 11.6% 10.7% 9.6% 11.5% 11.3% 8.42% 2.97%

4+ bedrooms Median Last List Price $4,450,000 $3,597,500 $3,395,000 $3,672,500 $3,995,000 23.70% 11.39%

% Market Share 3.8% 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.8% 39.03% 0.32%

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CONDO

CO-OP

TOWNHOUSE

CLOSED SALES

Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 QoQ% YoY%

Average Sales Price $2,177,361 $1,947,130 $2,218,309 11.82% -1.85%

Median Sales Price $1,405,000 $1,325,000 $1,466,250 6.04% -4.18%


Median PPSF $1,461 $1,448 $1,496 0.92% -2.35%

Average DOM 115 102 118 12.21% -2.63%

% year over year

Median Sales Price 4.2%

3 daysAverage DOM

Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 QoQ% YoY%

Average Sales Price $1,363,028 $1,245,083 $1,173,620 9.47% 16.14%

Median Sales Price $807,000 $786,000 $740,000 2.67% 9.05%

Listing Discount* -4.11% -4.53% -4.09% -9.33% 0.54%

Median PPSF $1,023 $973 $965 5.14% 5.93%

Average DOM 81 83 85 -2.66% -5.00%

Closed sales for condo and co-op markets saw opposing sales price changes in both median and average sales price year over year. Quarter over quarter comparisons have increases in all prices metrics for both markets. The most substantial difference between condo and co-op closed sales was seen in the listing discount. As the condo market saw the listing discount expand to -7.7% this quarter, representing a change of 25% from same quarter prior year. Co-op closed sales had a moderate change of less than 1%. Average days on market remained relatively steady.

The townhouse median closed sales price rose by almost one-third compared to the same quarter prior year, while average closed sales price received a modest increase of 4%. Both of these numbers indiciate a larger proportion of higher priced townhouse sales and fewer trophy townhouse sales which would normally impact the average sales price significantly.



4 daysAverage DOM

Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 QoQ% YoY%

Average Sales Price $8,752,556 $7,424,195 $8,411,897 17.89% 4.05%

Median Sales Price $7,287,500 $7,600,000 $5,510,000 -4.11% 32.26%


Median PPSF $1,222 $1,383 $1,520 -11.65% -19.59%

Average DOM 140 167 148 -16.22% -5.96%


Average DOM

* Note: Listing Discount (also known as Listing Premium) calculated based on closed sales price relative to original asking price.

8 days

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CLOSED SALES

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET OF CLOSED LISTINGS BY TYPE


MEDIAN CLOSED SALES PRICE BY TYPE

CO-OP

CONDO

TOWNHOUSE

$0.6M

$0.8M

$1.0M

$1.2M

$1.4M

$1.6M

$1.8M

Jan

2017

Feb

2017

Mar

201

7

April

201

7

May

201

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June

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July

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Aug

2017

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Oct

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Dec

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Jan

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Feb

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$1.0M

$2.0M

$3.0M

$4.0M

$5.0M

$6.0M

$7.0M

$8.0M

$9.0M

Jan

2017

Feb

2017

Mar

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April

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June

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8118

104 99 102115

85 87

7283 81

148

173184

167

140

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CONDO CO-OP TOWNHOUSE

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MARKET SNAPSHOT BY PRICE AND BEDROOM

CLOSED SALES

% NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY PRICEWhen looking at closed sales percentages by price, all areas of the market saw shifts year over year: growth in the $500K - $2M price range, cooling in $3M - $5M and significant increase of almost 1% in $10M - $20M which traditionally sees less fluctuations.

PRICE RANGE Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q1 2017

<$500K 13.3% 13.2% 14.2%

$500K-1M 38.4% 40.4% 37.8%

$1M-2M 26.5% 25.3% 25.7%

$2M-3M 10.1% 11.1% 9.9%

$3M-5M 6.3% 6.2% 7.7%

$5M-10M 3.5% 2.8% 3.4%

$10M-20M 1.8% 0.8% 1.0%

$20M+ 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%


1 bedroom Median Price $999,000 $1,007,444 1,075,000 1,045,000 $1,100,000 -0.84% -9.18%

% of Market Share 37.9% 39.9% 39.1% 34.4% 38.3% -5.03% -0.96%

2 bedrooms Median Price $1,883,500 $1,875,000 $1,875,000 $1,900,000 $2,067,500 0.45% -8.90%

% of Market Share 34.6% 31.5% 33.7% 37.9% 35.3% 9.89% -2.00%

3 bedrooms Median Price $3,500,000 $2,933,333 $3,112,500 $3,595,000 $3,279,500 19.32% 6.72%

% of Market Share 14.2% 12.2% 14.1% 13.1% 11.9% 16.09% 18.67%

4+ bedrooms Median Price $5,850,000 $5,615,625 $6,520,000 $5,500,000 $5,950,000 4.17% -1.68%

% of Market Share 4.2% 4.7% 4.3% 6.3% 4.8% -10.57% -12.10%

CLOSED SALES BY BEDROOM: CONDO


1 bedroom Median Price $699,000 $712,500 $730,000 $725,000 $685,000 -1.89% 2.04%

% of Market Share 30.5% 28.3% 30.6% 29.0% 27.9% 7.79% 9.17%

2 bedrooms Median Price $1,396,000 $1,350,000 $1,299,500 $1,339,000 $1,180,000 3.41% 18.31%

% of Market Share 24.5% 22.4% 23.3% 23.3% 17.2% 9.37% 42.56%

3 bedrooms Median Price $2,050,000 $2,455,000 $2,350,000 $2,332,500 $2,450,000 -16.50% -16.33%

% of Market Share 8.3% 8.0% 8.8% 8.0% 5.5% 3.55% 51.73%

4+ bedrooms Median Price $3,525,000 $3,300,000 $3,944,000 $3,775,000 $2,750,000 6.82% 28.18%

% of Market Share 3.5% 3.2% 2.9% 3.4% 2.0% 8.87% 75.34%

CLOSED SALES BY BEDROOM: CO-OP


12

PRICE NEGOTIABILITY*

CONDO

CO-OP

TOWNHOUSE

CLOSED SALES

CLOSED PRICE Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q1 2017

Above Ask 8.74% 10.19% 18.50%

At Ask 5.07% 7.10% 5.85%

Below Ask 86.19% 82.71% 75.66%

CLOSED PRICE Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q1 2017

Above Ask 21.56% 21.70% 20.90%

At Ask 12.73% 11.20% 12.63%

Below Ask 65.71% 67.10% 66.47%

CLOSED PRICE Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q1 2017

Above Ask 0.00% 13.79% 5.00%

At Ask 2.94% 3.45% 5.00%

Below Ask 97.06% 82.76% 90.00%

The number of closed sales selling below ask has steadily increased from Q1 2017 with the converse impact for condos selling above ask. Condo sellers should recognize the importance of spot-on pricing in this market and be prepared to negotiate with buyers based on market condition indicators.

Co-op buyers have less room to negotiate as compared to condo buyers. The closed price trends as compared to asking price have maintained steady across the past five quarters.

Most notable of the three markets’ negotiability is townhouses. Townhouse buyers had the upper-hand in Q1 2018 with none buying over ask. Townhouse sellers must be honest with their pricing to achieve at or close to their original asking price.


*% of closed sales prices above, at, and below original asking price

At Ask2.9%

Below Ask97.1%

Above Ask21.6%

At Ask12.7%

Below Ask65.7%

Above Ask8.7%

At Ask5.1%

Below Ask86.2%

13

METHODOLOGY& DISCLAIMERS

• This report was produced and authored by Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties in partnership with Perchwell. Project point of contacts: Katharine Riggle, Director of Marketing and Alexandre Ritscher, Listings Coordinator.

• Data sources: Perchwell, RLS, Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS), New York City public data and proprietary sources between January 1st 2017 and March 31st 2018.

• Market indicator definitions:

• New Listings – The inventory that has come to market within the quarter, based on listing date. This provides for the highest level of accuracy when we consider new market supply. We examine the volume of listings brought to market each specific quarter.

• Contracts Signed – The most-timely market demand indicator by reflecting buyers’ willingness to buy, market conditions and price. As contract price is not required at time of contract signed status reporting, contract signed prices are based on last listed price.

• Closed Sales – Not all contracts reach the closing stage; thus, closed sales represent the net market demand at the final closing price. Closed data then becomes the most accurate price negotiability indicator.

• This report is based on market-wide Manhattan data for condo, co-op and townhouse resales. New development data is excluded.

• Sales price definitions:

• New listing/inventory prices are based on original listed price

• Contract signed prices are based on last listed price

• Closed sales prices are based on the reported closing price

• The average days on market for both contract signed listings and closed sales represent the number of days from the first listed date to the contract date.

• The number of closed sales for Q1 2018 reflects all closed sales data available in ACRIS as of April 9th 2018 and has not been adjusted as there is a shortened lag period in our report due to exclusive direct ACRIS access.

• Information is based in whole or part on residential property transactions and is being provided “as is.” Data may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

bhhsnyp.com

© 2018 BHH Affiliates, LLC. An independently operated subsidiary of HomeServices of America, Inc., a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate, and a franchisee of BHH Affiliates, LLC. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices and the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices symbol are registered service marks of HomeServices of America, Inc.® Information not verified or guaranteed. If your home is currently listed with a Broker, this is not intended as a solicitation. Equal housing opportunity.


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