Benefit-Cost Analysis Gold Coast Transit New Operations and Maintenance Facility

This report summarizes the Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) for the new Gold Coast Transit (GCT) operations and maintenance facility including the methodology, model data inputs, results and parameters.

BCA MODEL

The California Life-Cycle Benefit/Cost Analysis Corridor Model (Cal-B/C Corridor) Version v5.0 was utilized to conduct the BCA for the new Gold Coast Transit operations and maintenance facility. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) uses Cal-B/C to conduct investment analyses of state-funded projects requiring benefit-cost analysis.

Cal-B/C Corridor is a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that provides economic benefit-cost analysis for a range of capacity-expansion transportation projects. It is derived directly from Cal-B/C, so it produces results fully comparable with those from the original model. Cal-B/C Corridor uses the same assumptions and parameters, but it facilitates the analysis of travel impacts estimated in regional travel demand models and micro-simulation models. Users enter aggregate model data for the base and forecast years and the Cal-B/C Corridor model estimates user benefits in three main categories:

• Travel time savings • Vehicle operating cost savings • Emission cost savings.

The model does not estimate accident cost savings, because these benefits cannot be estimated simply from the model group data. However, Cal-B/C Corridor retains the accident cost parameters and includes accident cost savings on the Final Calculations page.

BCA RESULTS

The Results sheet presents the final investment measures as well as annualized and life- cycle benefits. Cal-B/C Corridor summarizes analysis results using several measures:

• Life-cycle costs (in millions $) • Life-cycle benefits (in millions $) • Net present value (in millions $)

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• Benefit/cost ratio (benefits divided by costs) • Rate of return on investment (in percent return per year) • Project payback period (in years).

The model itemizes anticipated benefits (in millions of dollars) for the average year and over the full twenty-year lifecycle. The model calculates benefits for:

• Travel time savings • Vehicle operating cost savings • Accident cost savings • Emission cost savings.

The output also summarizes three performance measures:

• Person-hours of time saved • Additional CO2 emissions saved (in tons) • Additional CO2 emissions saved (in millions of dollars).

Cal-B/C estimates the value of CO2 emissions using a standard value for tons of CO2 equivalent. While the model is set up to estimate values only for CO2, other greenhouse gases could be valued using equivalency factors. The methodology is described in Volume 3 of the User’s Guide Technical Supplement.

The “Results sheet” tables from the Cal-B/C Corridor model are presented below and the following page and show the BCA results discounted at 3% (below) and 7% (next page). The BCA ratios of 5.5 and 3.4 indicate that the project benefits will pay for the cost of the project in 6 years, making it cost-effective. The majority of the benefits are generated from vehicle operating savings attributed to increase bus ridership resulting in less VMT.

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PROJECT COST

Project costs are estimated annually from the start of construction to 20 years after the project opens. Project costs include right-of-way, construction, and project support costs as well as the incremental operating and maintenance costs. The cost input sheet from the model is shown below.

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Project cost (support, r/w and construction) was provided by GCT planning staff. The cost of maintenance and custodial was estimated using facilities unit costs from Maricopa County, AZ, High Quartile data, inflated to year 2018 (start of benefits) to $2.67 Sq/ft for maintenance plus $1.59 Sq/ft for custodial services. The estimated annual cost of $985,000 for the cost of maintenance and custodial was based on the following estimated size of the new facility provided by GCT staff: Square Foot New Facility Areas 28,286 Administrative building 38,670 Maintenance & bus parking 164,040 Bus and employee outside parking with circulation area

PROJECT DATA INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS

As in Cal-B/C, users must enter the project location, so the model can estimate emissions benefits correctly. User benefits are expected to start after the construction period is completed. The Time to Construction Start input allows users to shift the start of the construction period. User benefits are discounted by the length of the construction period plus the time to construction start.

Estimating VMT Reduction

No-build VMT data was obtained from the Ventura County Traffic Model for years 2007 and 2030 (data provided by the Ventura County Transportation Commission). Build VMT was estimated based on the following assumptions:

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Assumptions 1) The increase in bus ridership is proportional to the increase in the number of buses (new passengers per added bus = ((Trips/no. of buses)*.03 assumes each added bus will carry 3% new passengers. 2) GCT cannot grow beyond the current bus fleet size of 54 buses in the existing facility (from GCT staff). 3) The new facility will allow GCT to grow to a fleet size of 125 buses by year 2030 (from GCT staff). 4) The increase in the number of buses will occur on a straight-line basis and will remain flat after 2030. 5) Assume 1% annual growth in trips No-build. 6) Annual Auto VMT Reduced = R*A*[L-(AA*LL)]; where R = Ridership (unlinked trips); A = Auto trip reduction factor 0.5; AA = Portion of riders who drive to transit service factor; L = Auto Trip Length; LL = Length of Auto Access to transit service.

0.5 = A 0.1 = AA

9 = L 2 = LL

Values from the California Air Resources Board, Methods to Find the Cost-Effectiveness of Funding Air Quality Projects, May 2005

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Users enter aggregate model data for the base and forecast years and the Cal-B/C Corridor model estimates user benefits. The input sheets from the model are provided below, beginning with defining the model group. Only VMT was available from the Ventura County Traffic Model, not VHT. Therefore, only changes in VMT data was added to the model. AVO of 1.34 is the average from the Ventura County Traffic model, year 2007.

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SUMMARY OF BENEFITS AND COST BY BENEFIT TYPE

Summary tables by type of benefit from the Model are presented in the next few pages. The results are shown discounted at 3% and 7%.

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Vehicle Operating Cost Savings Benefit Tables Discounted at 3% (top table) and 7% (bottom table)

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Emission Reduction Benefit Tables Discounted at 3% (top table) and 7% (bottom table)

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Net Present Value Final Calculations at 3%

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Net Present Value Final Calculations at 3% (continued from previous page)

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Net Present Value Final Calculations at 7%

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Net Present Value Final Calculations at 7% (continued from previous page)

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Cal-B/C MODEL PARAMETERS

The parameters from the Cal-B/C model are presented in the next two pages.

Travel Time Parameters

Discount Rate Percent Real* (Inflation Adjusted) 3.0 & 7.0 Value of Time Dollars Per Person Hours Automobile $12.50 Truck $28.70 Auto/Truck Composite (Weighted-Average) $17.35

Transit (in vehicle) $12.50 Transit (out of vehicle) $25.00 Average Vehicle Occupancy Rate 1.15

Vehicle Operating Cost Parameters

Average Fuel Price Dollars Per Gallon Regular Unleaded (auto) $3.714 Disesel (truck) $3.941 Fuel Price (excluding taxes) Dollars Per Gallon Regular Unleaded (auto) $2.85 Diesel (truck) $3.15 Non-Fuel Costs Dollars Per Mile Automobile $0.303 Truck $0.418

Accident Cost Parameters

Cost of Highway Accident Dollars Per Accident Fatal Accident $4,800,000 Injury Accident $67,400 Property Damage Only (PDO) Accident $10,200

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Average Cost per Accident $52,500 Cost of an Event Dollars Per Event Cost of a Fatality $4,400,000

Cost of an Injury Level A (Severe) $221,400 Level B (Moderate) $56,500 Level C (Minor) $26,900 Cost of Property Damage $2,500

Emissions Cost Parameters

Health Cost of Transportation Emissions Dollars Per U.S. Ton

Pollutant L.A./South Coast

CA Urban Area

CA Rural Area

Carbon Monoxide (CO) $145 $75 $70

Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) $59,100 $17,300 $12,900

Particular Matter (PM10) $484,300

$139,900 $99,700

Sulfur Oxide (SOx) $182,000 $69,800 $50,400

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) $3,675 $1,210 $950

Greenhouse Gases (CO2e)** $23

*The Cal-B/C Framework is setup to evaluate costs and benefits in constant dollars without escalating future values. **The Cal-B/C Framework includes a two-percent "uprating" factor, so that subsequent years reflect the increasing values. This approach is consistent with Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, United States Government,2010.

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