Belize: Macro Socio-Economic Assessment Report of the Impact of Hurricane Dean August 2007 ECLAC...

Belize: Macro Socio-Economic

Assessment Report

of the Impact of Hurricane Dean

August 2007

ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean

United Nations Development Programme

The ECLAC Methodology: The post-disaster cycle

ECLAC evaluation

EmergencyRehabilitation

and recovery of livelihoods

Reconstruction/Development


The ECLAC Methodology: The procedure

Description Assessment Rehabilitation and reconstruction

Part I Part II Part III

What is it?

Whom has it affected?

Where?

What has been done?

What is the

Magnitude?

What needs to be done?


The ECLAC Methodology: The assessment

Damage

Assets

Stocks

Losses Secondary effects

GDP

Fiscal Accounts

Balance of payments

Employment

PricesAt the time of the disaster

Income foregone

Higher costs

Following the disaster

1 to 5 years

Social and productive sectors, infrastructure and environment Macroeconomic effects

Part 1 Part 2


The Sustainable Livelihoods Approach


LIVELIHOODSASSETS

VULNERABILITYCONTEXT LIVELIHOODS

STRATEGIES

LIVELIHOODS

OUTCOMES

S

H

P F

N

Livelihood AssetsH = Human Capital N = Natural CapitalF = Financial Capital S = Social CapitalP = Physical Capital

In

order

to

achieve

TRANSFORMING

STRUCTURES AND

PROCESSES

Influence &

access

Hurricane DeanHurricane Dean This system formed This system formed

over the far eastern over the far eastern Atlantic on 13-Aug-Atlantic on 13-Aug-0707

A hurricane watch A hurricane watch was issued for Belize was issued for Belize City northwards to City northwards to the Mexican border the Mexican border on 19-Aug-07on 19-Aug-07

Dean had a forward Dean had a forward speed of approx. 20 speed of approx. 20 mph, so rainfall mph, so rainfall impacts were impacts were reduced reduced significantly.significantly.

Hurricane DeanHurricane Dean Hurricane Dean Hurricane Dean

made landfall at made landfall at Mahahual, Mexico Mahahual, Mexico at 1:45AM on 21-at 1:45AM on 21-Aug-07, as a Aug-07, as a Category 5 storm Category 5 storm with 165 mph with 165 mph maximum sustained maximum sustained winds;winds;

The system was The system was very intense but very intense but compact, with compact, with Hurricane force Hurricane force winds extending winds extending outwards 35 miles, outwards 35 miles, and storm force and storm force winds outwards 105 winds outwards 105 miles.miles.

Landfall

The affected population


The affected population

Hurricane Dean affected mainly the population living in the Districts of Corozal, Orange Walk and to a lesser extent Belize (damage to Ambergris Caye and Caye Caulker)


Characteristics of Population Affected by the impact of Hurricane Dean by District

TotalPop %

Severely Affected Pop %

Affected Pop Agri

Affected Pop Tourism

Total Affected Pop

% of pop

Country Total

311,480100

6,1402% 20,878 10,685 37,703 12%

District Total % total %

% of District

Corozal 36,365 11.7 3905 10.74 9,091 613 9704 27%

Corozal Town 9,110 2.9 745 8.18

Corozal Rural27,255

8.83,160

11.59

Orange Walk 47,145 15.1 2,235 4.74 11,786 872 12,658 27%

Belize 93,215 29.9

San Pedro Town 10,445 3.4 9,200 10%

Severely Affected Population

The number of persons severely affected by Hurricane Dean is estimated to be 6,140 persons – or 11% of the total population of Corozal and 5% of the population of Orange Walk.

The two districts combined contain 41% of the country’s poor and 9% of the country's indigent


Severely Affected Population as a consequence of Hurricane Dean

Comparative look at severely affected by Dean and Porportion Poor and Indigent by District

0 5 10 15 20 25

Corozal

Orange Walk

Dis

tric

t

Percentage

% indigent

% poor

% severely aff

Vulnerability of women Women comprise some 26.8% of all Household Heads in Belize;

FHH traditionally have an increased burden of care than their male counterparts due to their inability to earn similar incomes, and the necessity to meet similar needs with fewer resources;

According to the Poverty Assessment (2002), economic vulnerability was high in Belize, as 36.8% of all households stated that they were experiencing financial difficulties at the time of the survey. The Orange Walk District had the highest percentage of all households with financial difficulties (53%);

Women who depend on the informal economy to either support their families outright, or contribute to their family income through back yard gardens, were sorely affected by the destruction of fruit trees, vegetables, and food preparation and sales which they carried out on a daily basis to male workers in the agricultural sector;

Approximately 200 women’s livelihoods, in the formal economy, was disrupted due to the impact of Dean on the papaya industry – worked as packers and in the field;

Women and children are at risk of violence and depravation as male partners and supporters may turn to alcohol and other deviant behaviours as the toll of not being able to support their families, become a reality following a disaster.


The disaster: its impact on the social and the productive sectors


Summary of effects on the social sector

Total Impact on the Total Impact on the Social sectorSocial sector

BZ$34.33 millionBZ$34.33 million

Housing – Housing – $33,230,100.00;$33,230,100.00;

Education – Education – $799,900.00;$799,900.00;

Health –Health –

$303,300.00$303,300.00

The impact on the agricultural sector In 2006, the agricultural sector ( including fisheries)

contribution to GDP was estimated at 15.8%, representing the single largest contributor to the economy;

Exports of agricultural and related value added products

represented 70.2% of total domestic exports (2006);

Total damage to the agricultural sector is estimated at BZ $115.83 million. Damages to the agricultural sector by Keith (2000) amounted to BZ$124.35 million;

In the affected areas the crop subsector was severely impacted accounting for 90.6% of the total damage, followed by the fisheries (8.3%) and livestock (1.1%) subsectors in that order.

With respect to the crop subsector, the papaya industry was severely impacted, accounting for 58.1% of total damage to the agricultural sector, followed by sugar cane (19.7%) , corn (3.8%) and plantain (3.2%) in terms of severity of damage.



Summary Damage to Agriculture

SUB SECTOR DAMAGE L0SESS TOTAL DAMAGE/

PAPAYA 25,614,000 41,724,900 67,338,900

SUGAR CANE 8,400,000 14,419,640 22,819,640

CORN 1,988,400 2,390,360 4,378,760

PLANTAINS 1,332,500 2,351,865 3,684,365

OTHER CROPS 2,754,224 3,991,496 6,745,720

SUB-TOTAL CROPS40,089,124 64,878,261 104,967,385

LIVESTOCK 943,737 272,095 1,215,832

FISHERIES 1,459,525 8,191,831 9,651,356

TOTAL DAMAGE

42,492,386 73,342,187 115,834,573

Hurricane Dean Impacts on Hurricane Dean Impacts on InfrastructureInfrastructure

Damage was Damage was primarily primarily contained in the contained in the northern part of northern part of the country: the country: Corozal District, Corozal District, Orange Walk, Orange Walk, and San Pedroand San Pedro

There was There was damage to damage to feeder roads, feeder roads, building building infrastructure, infrastructure, houses and houses and commercial commercial establishmentsestablishments

Hurricane Dean ImpactsHurricane Dean Impacts The main highway system stood up well, but feeder roads The main highway system stood up well, but feeder roads

and agricultural roads were badly damaged, as these are and agricultural roads were badly damaged, as these are typically unpaved;typically unpaved;

Extensive damage occurred to most of the jetties on San Extensive damage occurred to most of the jetties on San

PedroPedro There was significant beach erosion on the NE coast of There was significant beach erosion on the NE coast of

Ambergris CayeAmbergris Caye

Impact on InfrastructureImpact on InfrastructureDirect Damage

Transportation/Roads: Bz$9.41m

Electricity Generation: Bz$0.85m

Water Supply: Bz$0.15m

Telecommunications: Bz$0.50m

Total Direct Damages Bz$10.91m

Indirect Losses

Transportation: Bz$0.47m

Electricity Generation: Bz$0.11m

Water Supply: Bz$0.08m

Telecommunications: Bz$0.13m

Total Indirect Losses: Bz$0.79m

TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSSES Bz$11.7m

Impact on TourismImpact on TourismDirect Damage

Corozal and Environs: Bz$0.60m

San Pedro & Caye Caulker:Bz$0.72m

Total Direct DamagesBz$1.32mIndirect Losses

Corozal (wages, income, revenue):Bz$0.38m

San Pedro/Caye Caulker (wages, income, revenue):Bz$4.45m

Visitor Spend: Bz$1.87m

Dive and Adventure Tours:Bz$0.91m

Busses, Tour Guides, etc.:Bz$0.44m

Total Indirect Losses:Bz$8.05m

TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSSESBz$9.37m

Impact on the EnvironmentImpact on the EnvironmentDirect Damage

Coastal Erosion:Bz$0.50m

Damage to Vegetation: Bz$6.00m

Total Direct DamagesBz$6.50mIndirect Losses

Damage to Seagrass Beds/Coral Reef: Bz$0.20m

Water Based Pollution Clean-up:Bz$1.10m

Total Indirect Losses:Bz$1.30m

TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSSESBz$7.80m

The summary of the Impact

US$89.5 BZ$179.03


The macro-impact of the disaster


Summary impact in relation to selectedmacroeconomic variables

Total

Impact as percentage of GDP 7.4

Impact as percentage of agriculture GDP 63.8

Impact as percentage of exports of goods 20.96

Impact as percentage of exports of goods and services 11.5

Impact as percentage of gross domestic investment 38.8

Impact as percentage of consumption 9.4

Impact as percentage of the public external debt stock 9.1


Belize Real GDP growth (2004-2006)

Pre- and Post-disaster scenarios


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Pre-disaster

Post-disaster


-200

-150

-100

-50

0

Current Account of BOP

Pre-flood Post-flood

Perc

enta

ge o

f G

DP

BOP Effects of the disaster for 2007BOP Effects of the disaster for 2007


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Fiscal Account

Pre-flood Post-flood

Perc

enta

ge o

f G

DP

Fiscal effects of the disaster for 2007Fiscal effects of the disaster for 2007

The disaster and its aftermath


Vulnerability Poverty and its attendant ills; Rural areas are vulnerable to electricity outages

and impacts to main grid; Limited training and general education of the

population dependent on agriculture; Limited financial resources for investment and

recovery in the agricultural sector; Limited capacity to diversify the economy; Too strong reliance on one commodity ( e.g.

sugar cane);


Vulnerability … cont’d

High burden of care, of female heads of households with limited resources;

Water supply in the rural area without reliable back-up capacity;

Belize City remains extremely vulnerable to Storm surge;

Critical infrastructure requires categorizing and Critical infrastructure requires categorizing and hazard mapping to develop plans and policies hazard mapping to develop plans and policies for vulnerability reduction for Belize city;for vulnerability reduction for Belize city;


Strategic Mitigation approaches to advance sustainable livelihoods and development

Strengthen Disaster Management capacity at the micro, meso and macro levels;

Build capacity in the capture of information regarding damage and loss at the community level;

Build capacity in determining the impact of siltation on the habitat of fish;

Assess the risk of Belize City to extreme storm surge and to map all critical facilities;

Evaluate beach erosion extents and possible effects on telecommunications cables


Strategic Mitigation approaches cont’d Strengthen economic diversification efforts (within and

outside of agriculture) to generate alternative employment opportunities and as a risk reduction strategy;

Use resource boom such as receipts from oil production to reduce debt;

Improve competitiveness of tourism by improved product development and branding of sub-sectors;

Provide special incentives to increase the participation of youth and female producers, particularly those who are heads of households, in the economic development process;

Address the relocation & or retrofitting of communities located in hazard zones;

Upgrade the quality of housing and sanitation of the poor in rural and urban communities;


Strategic Mitigation approaches… cont’d

Strengthen affordable micro credit facilities (rural development investment funds);

Strengthen baseline information systems especially national statistical systems producing timely and periodic data;

Undertake a country-wide programme of drain cleaning ;

• Facilitate BTL to move to a wireless overlay system, so that downed lines will have minimal impact for most areas across the country;

• Encourage BTL to install back-up generating power at selected sites;


Short term RecommendationsShort term Recommendations

•Support efforts of civil society to meet the basic needs of the poorest;

•Provide training for the informal construction sector in risk reduction practices at community level;

•Conduct an inventory of construction equipment in various districts – Min. of Works plus private contractors, to reduce vulnerability in the event of a disaster;

•BEL program of vulnerability reduction should be continued and encouraged – improved standards, particularly in coastal zones;

Short term recommendations Short term recommendations

Replacement of automatic recording station at Half Moon Caye – Meteorological Office

BWS should be encouraged to install own generating capacity at rural pumping stations;

THANK YOU

Belize: Macro Socio-Economic Assessment Report of the Impact of Hurricane Dean August 2007 ECLAC...

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