Belarus Gloomy Autumn Belarus Gloomy Autumn

Prof. Dr. Oleg ManaevProf. Dr. Oleg Manaev

Washington, D.C. October 26, 2011Washington, D.C. October 26, 2011

EconomyEconomy

11. . How did your financial state change over How did your financial state change over past three months?past three months? %%

OptionsOptions 06’1106’11 09’1109’11ImprovedImproved 1.61.6 5.15.1Did not changeDid not change 23.223.2 20.020.0Became worse Became worse 73.473.4 73.773.7DA/NADA/NA 1.81.8 1.21.2

2. 2. In your opinion, how will socio-economic In your opinion, how will socio-economic situation in Belarus change in next few situation in Belarus change in next few years?years? %%

OptionsOptions 06’1106’11 09’1109’11ImprovedImproved 11.911.9 12.912.9Did not changeDid not change 20.320.3 24.124.1Became worse Became worse 55.555.5 52.752.7DA/NADA/NA 12.312.3 10.310.3

3. Do you think Belarusian economy is in a crisis?

OptionsOptions %%YesYes 87.687.6NoNo 8.08.0DA/NADA/NA 4.44.4

4. 4. Chairman of the National Bank of Belarus, Chairman of the National Bank of Belarus, Piotr Prokopovich, resigned recently. To Piotr Prokopovich, resigned recently. To which extend, you think, he is to blame for which extend, you think, he is to blame for this year’s economic crisis in Belarus?this year’s economic crisis in Belarus?

OptionsOptions %%He is the main cause of the crisisHe is the main cause of the crisis 7.57.5He is to blame to some extend but other He is to blame to some extend but other authorities bare significant faultauthorities bare significant fault

40.140.1

There is some his fault but independent There is some his fault but independent circumstances are more to blame then he circumstances are more to blame then he isis

26.326.3

He has no fault in itHe has no fault in it 16.016.0DA/NADA/NA 10.110.1

5. 5. Generally speaking, do things in Belarus go Generally speaking, do things in Belarus go in right or wrong direction?in right or wrong direction? %%

OptionsOptions 12’1012’10 06’1106’11 09’1109’11In right directionIn right direction 54.254.2 61.861.8 68.568.5In wrong directionIn wrong direction 32.532.5 26.126.1 17.017.0DA/NADA/NA 13.313.3 12.112.1 14.514.5

PresidentPresident1. 1. Who is to blame for current economic crisis Who is to blame for current economic crisis

in Belarus? (in Belarus? (no more than three answersno more than three answers))%%

OptionsOptions 06’1106’11 09’1109’11PresidentPresident 44.544.5 61.261.2GovernmentGovernment 36.736.7 41.341.3USAUSA 6.36.3 16.316.3EuropeEurope 12.012.0Parliament Parliament -- 11.911.9The peopleThe people -- 10.010.0RussiaRussia 3.93.9 7.37.3OppositionOpposition 1.61.6 5.05.0World financial crisisWorld financial crisis 27.027.0 --ExploitersExploiters 16.616.6 --DA/NADA/NA 8.88.8 13.413.4

2. 2. Do you think that after presidential Do you think that after presidential elections rating of Alexander Lukashenko elections rating of Alexander Lukashenko (readiness of people to vote for him in next (readiness of people to vote for him in next elections) has increased or decreased?elections) has increased or decreased? %%

OptionOption 0055’’0707 09’1109’11IncreasedIncreased 32.132.1 4.34.3Remained the sameRemained the same 36.336.3 18.618.6DecreasedDecreased 24.324.3 73.073.0DA/NADA/NA 7.37.3 4.14.1

33.. Do you trust the PresidentDo you trust the President? %? %

OptionsOptions 12’1012’10 03’1103’11 06’1106’11 0909’11’11TrustTrust 55.055.0 47.947.9 35.735.7 24.524.5DistrustDistrust 34.134.1 42.042.0 53.853.8 62.062.0DA/NADA/NA 10.910.9 10.110.1 10.510.5 13.613.6

OptionsOptions 0066’’1010 09’1109’11Life will improveLife will improve 22.422.4 35.235.2Life will remain the sameLife will remain the same 34.834.8 26.926.9Life will get worseLife will get worse 25.225.2 23.823.8DA/NADA/NA 17.317.3 14.114.1

4. Some people think that life will improve after Lukashenko leaves; others think that it will get worse. What do you think? %

5. 5. If presidential elections were to take place If presidential elections were to take place tomorrow, who would you vote for? tomorrow, who would you vote for? (open (open question)question) %%

OptionOption 12’1012’10 03’1103’11 06’1106’11 0909’11’11Alexander LukashenkoAlexander Lukashenko 53.053.0 42.942.9 29.329.3 20.520.5Vladimir NeklyaevVladimir Neklyaev 6.96.9 7.77.7 5.45.4 8.88.8Andrei SannikovAndrei Sannikov 3.23.2 4.74.7 7.47.4 6.26.2Ales’ MikhalevichAles’ Mikhalevich 1.01.0 2.92.9 2.72.7 2.12.1Yaroslav RomanchukYaroslav Romanchuk 1.51.5 1.71.7 2.02.0 1.51.5Vitaly RymashevskyVitaly Rymashevsky 1.71.7 2.02.0 1.21.2 1.01.0Other politician Other politician ((from from 9 9 toto 13 13 namesnames, , less thanless than 1% 1% each)each)

3.23.2 2.32.3 4.04.0 4.44.4

Other responseOther response 5.45.4 8.78.7 13.613.6 11.811.8DA/NADA/NA 23.623.6 25.125.1 33.133.1 42.642.6

6. For whom would you vote if the 6. For whom would you vote if the Presidential election take place tomorrow, Presidential election take place tomorrow,

and there would be the following candidates and there would be the following candidates in the ballot?in the ballot?

OptionsOptions 10’1010’10 09’1109’11For Alexander LukashenkoFor Alexander Lukashenko 47.847.8 23.723.7For Vladimir NeklyaevFor Vladimir Neklyaev 16.516.5 14.314.3For another candidateFor another candidate 6.76.7 18.118.1For no oneFor no one 13.513.5 30.430.4DA/NADA/NA 15.515.5 13.513.5

Domestic politicsDomestic politics1. In which direction is political life in Belarus 1. In which direction is political life in Belarus

developing?developing? OptionsOptions 09’1109’11Development of democracyDevelopment of democracy 11.411.4Restoration of the old Soviet ordersRestoration of the old Soviet orders 17.617.6Formation of authoritarianism, Formation of authoritarianism, dictatorshipdictatorship

33.733.7

Growth of chaos, anarchy, threats of Growth of chaos, anarchy, threats of coupcoup

23.323.3

DA/NADA/NA 14.014.0

22. . Recently Anatoly Rubinov, Chairman of theRecently Anatoly Rubinov, Chairman of the Soviet of Soviet of the Republic of the National Assembly of the Republic the Republic of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus,  expressed an opinion that Republican of Belarus,  expressed an opinion that Republican public association “Belaiya Rus’”, which supports public association “Belaiya Rus’”, which supports Belarusian authorities, could transform into a political Belarusian authorities, could transform into a political party. Are you ready to join such party?party. Are you ready to join such party? ? ?

OptionsOptions %%YesYes 4.24.2NoNo 82.682.6DA/NADA/NA 13.213.2

33. . The case of April 11th explosions in Minsk The case of April 11th explosions in Minsk subway went to court recently. According subway went to court recently. According to the investigation, the crime was to the investigation, the crime was committed by a single terrorist, and there committed by a single terrorist, and there was nobody behind it. Do you believe this was nobody behind it. Do you believe this version?version?

OptionOption %%Yes, I believe itYes, I believe it 21.221.2They committed the crime but somebody ordered itThey committed the crime but somebody ordered it 32.432.4No, the crime was committed by other peopleNo, the crime was committed by other people 36.736.7DA/NADA/NA 9.79.7

44. . Do you personally feel protected by the Do you personally feel protected by the

law?law?

55. . If you don’t feel protected, explain whyIf you don’t feel protected, explain why ((more than one option possiblemore than one option possible))

OptionOption %%Because the law is being changed constantlyBecause the law is being changed constantly 29.229.2Because laws are interpreted very freely by those in powerBecause laws are interpreted very freely by those in power 28.428.4Because the law is not written for everyone – too many Because the law is not written for everyone – too many people now feel like they are above the lawpeople now feel like they are above the law

24.024.0

Corruption is everywhere. I can’t hope for a fair and Corruption is everywhere. I can’t hope for a fair and objective consideration of my case in courtobjective consideration of my case in court

21.621.6

People do not have means to influence authoritiesPeople do not have means to influence authorities 15.415.4DA/NADA/NA 0.50.5

OptionOption %%YesYes 38.538.5NoNo 53.453.4DA/NADA/NA 8.18.1

66. . By the law, while performing tasks in By the law, while performing tasks in protection of citizens, society and the state, protection of citizens, society and the state, law enforcement officers can use physical law enforcement officers can use physical force and special tools, if other ways of force and special tools, if other ways of performing the tasks seem inapplicable. performing the tasks seem inapplicable. Have you or people you know experienced Have you or people you know experienced UNLAWFUL VIOLENCE by law enforcement UNLAWFUL VIOLENCE by law enforcement officers?officers?

OptionOption %%YesYes 21.421.4NoNo 78.378.3DA/NADA/NA 0.30.3

77. . Do you think the issue of unlawful violence Do you think the issue of unlawful violence by law enforcement exists?by law enforcement exists?

OptionOption %%Yes, it is a serious issueYes, it is a serious issue 35.635.6A few episodes take place here and there but A few episodes take place here and there but it couldn’t be considered a serious issue it couldn’t be considered a serious issue

42.142.1

No, there is no such issueNo, there is no such issue 21.921.9DA/NADA/NA 0.40.4

88. . If you answered “yes” to the previous If you answered “yes” to the previous question, why do you think such violations question, why do you think such violations take place?take place?

OptionOption %%To force people to testifyTo force people to testify 32.832.8For extortion For extortion 27.627.6For the sake of bullying, they enjoy crueltyFor the sake of bullying, they enjoy cruelty 12.512.5To scare and discourage appeals against their To scare and discourage appeals against their unlawful behaviorunlawful behavior

11.511.5

From personal hostility, political, racial motivesFrom personal hostility, political, racial motives 11.111.1OtherOther 1.11.1

99. . Who would you more likely expect violence Who would you more likely expect violence

from - criminals or law enforcement?from - criminals or law enforcement?

OptionOption %% I fear criminals moreI fear criminals more 47.947.9I fear law enforcement moreI fear law enforcement more 10.410.4I equally fear bothI equally fear both 31.631.6I do not fear anyoneI do not fear anyone 9.69.6DA/NADA/NA 0.50.5

1010. . Do you think the state should significantly Do you think the state should significantly strengthen the fight against arbitrariness strengthen the fight against arbitrariness and violence by law enforcement?and violence by law enforcement?

OptionOption %%Yes, some significant steps should be Yes, some significant steps should be takentaken

38.438.4

The state is fighting it actively, such The state is fighting it actively, such initiative should be continuedinitiative should be continued

31.231.2

The steps taken by the state resolved the The steps taken by the state resolved the issueissue

17.617.6

DA/NADA/NA 12.812.8

Protest potentialProtest potential

1. 1. Would you consider yourself being in Would you consider yourself being in opposition to the authorities?opposition to the authorities? % %

OptionOption 12’1012’10 06’1106’11 0909’11’11YesYes 18.518.5 25.825.8 28.328.3NoNo 73.373.3 60.360.3 56.056.0DA/NADA/NA 8.28.2 13.913.9 15.715.7

2. 2. Which initiatives of Belarusian Which initiatives of Belarusian politicians do you support?politicians do you support?

OptionOption %%Proposing a dialogue to the authorities for a Proposing a dialogue to the authorities for a joint search for crisis recovery optionsjoint search for crisis recovery options

39.539.5

Demanding imposition of sanctions against Demanding imposition of sanctions against Belarusian authoritiesBelarusian authorities

34.634.6

Demanding immediate resignation from Demanding immediate resignation from Alexander LukashenkoAlexander Lukashenko

19.819.8

Demanding a Nation Assembly to discuss the Demanding a Nation Assembly to discuss the current situationcurrent situation

4.44.4

DA.NADA.NA 13.013.0

33. . Regular protests against current authorities’ Regular protests against current authorities’ policies, in which people expressed their discontent policies, in which people expressed their discontent by keeping silent and applauding, called “Revolution by keeping silent and applauding, called “Revolution through social networks” took place in many through social networks” took place in many Belarusian cities last June-July. DidBelarusian cities last June-July. Did youyou hearhear aboutabout

suchsuch protestsprotests??

OptionOption %%YesYes 70.870.8NoNo 27.027.0DA/NADA/NA 2.22.2

44. . How do you feel about these protests?How do you feel about these protests?

OptionOption %%ApproveApprove 37.437.4IndifferentIndifferent 33.633.6Disprove Disprove 19.219.2DA/NADA/NA 9.89.8

55. . Dynamics of readiness to participate in Dynamics of readiness to participate in public protestspublic protests, %, %    

OptionOption 08’0108’01 04’0604’06 12’1012’10 06’1106’11 09’1109’11RalliesRallies, , demonstrationsdemonstrations, , pickets pickets

1616.7.7 15.115.1 11.811.8 16.016.0 13.813.8

StrikesStrikes 12.912.9 12.512.5 8.68.6 13.613.6 13.913.9Hunger strikesHunger strikes 4.04.0 5.75.7 4.24.2 6.66.6 6.16.1Armed struggleArmed struggle 2.82.8 5.15.1 3.83.8 5.05.0 5.05.0

66.. Alternative candidates’ ratings among those who consider Alternative candidates’ ratings among those who consider or not consider themselves being in opposition to the or not consider themselves being in opposition to the authorities authorities %%

OptionsOptions ConsiderConsider NotNot DA/NADA/NANeklyaevNeklyaev 21.421.4SannikovSannikov 16.416.4MihalevichMihalevich 5.25.2Rymashevski Rymashevski 2.12.1StatkevichStatkevich 1.41.4RomanchukRomanchuk 1.21.2TereshchenkoTereshchenko 0.20.2

UssUss 00KostusevKostusev 00

47.947.9MilinkevichMilinkevich 2.82.8KozulinKozulin 2.12.1PosnyakPosnyak 0.70.7

DA/NA/Will not voteDA/NA/Will not vote 40.740.7

77. . Groups among those who consider or not consider Groups among those who consider or not consider themselves being in opposition themselves being in opposition %% (read by lines) (read by lines)

OptionsOptions ConsiderConsider NotNot DA/NADA/NAFinancial state – improvedFinancial state – improved 7.97.9 82.982.9 9.99.9 - worsened - worsened 33.133.1 51.551.5 15.415.4Economy in crisis – noEconomy in crisis – no 5.85.8 87.587.5 6.76.7 - yes- yes 31.531.5 52.652.6 15.915.9Country development – rightCountry development – right 5.85.8 87.987.9 6.36.3 - wrong- wrong 38.638.6 44.444.4 20.020.0

Blamed President in crisisBlamed President in crisis 42.842.8 41.841.8 15.415.4Trust to President – yesTrust to President – yes 6.06.0 89.189.1 4.94.9 - no - no 40.840.8 41.141.1 18.118.1Life after LukashenkoLife after Lukashenko – worse – worse 3.93.9 88.388.3 7.87.8 - - betterbetter 61.461.4 27.027.0 11.611.6Political developmentPolitical development – dictatorship – dictatorship 42.242.2 45.245.2 12.612.6

- - chaoschaos 42.442.4 37.237.2 20.420.4Feel protected by the lawFeel protected by the law – yes – yes 4.04.0 83.283.2 12.812.8 - - nono 48.148.1 36.636.6 15.315.3

88 Groups among those who would vote at the new Groups among those who would vote at the new Presidential election for: Presidential election for: %% (read by lines) (read by lines)

Option LukashenkoOption Lukashenko NeklyaNeklya OtherOther NoneNone D/NAD/NAFinancial state–improved 67.1Financial state–improved 67.1 3.93.9 7.97.9 15.815.8 5.35.3

- worsened 15.9- worsened 15.9 16.116.1 20.320.3 33.333.3 14.414.4Economy in crisis–yes 18.2 Economy in crisis–yes 18.2 15.915.9 20.020.0 31.931.9 14.014.0 - no 73.9- no 73.9 2.52.5 3.43.4 15.115.1 5.15.1

Country development–right 74.6Country development–right 74.6 3.53.5 6.66.6 9.89.8 5.55.5

- wrong 9.3- wrong 9.3 19.119.1 23.523.5 36.236.2 11.811.8Political development – Political development – democracy democracy 72.372.3

7.07.0 8.18.1 4.14.1 8.28.2

- former Soviet orders - former Soviet orders 38.638.6 9.89.8 11.011.0 29.229.2 11.411.4

- dictatorship 4.7- dictatorship 4.7 19.919.9 24.424.4 40.640.6 10.610.6- chaos 6.8- chaos 6.8 19.919.9 23.623.6 33.933.9 15.715.7

99. . Belarusian authorities claim that several Belarusian authorities claim that several opposition organizations and certain opposition organizations and certain opposition leaders are financially supported opposition leaders are financially supported

form abroad. Whatform abroad. What dodo youyou thinkthink aboutabout itit??

OptionOption %%It is absolutely fineIt is absolutely fine 49.549.5ItIt isis unacceptableunacceptable 33.733.7DA/NADA/NA 16.816.8

1010. . Below is a list of possible ways in which foreign countries and Below is a list of possible ways in which foreign countries and world community can help Belarusian non-state civil initiatives world community can help Belarusian non-state civil initiatives and organizations. Which ones would you consider acceptable and organizations. Which ones would you consider acceptable from moral, political and other perspectives?from moral, political and other perspectives?

OptionOption Accep-Accep-tabletable

Unaccep-Unaccep-tabletable

DA/DA/NANA

Educational support (seminars, conferences in Educational support (seminars, conferences in Belarus and abroad)Belarus and abroad)

81.881.8 9.79.7 8.58.5

Technologic support (computers, copiers, fax Technologic support (computers, copiers, fax machines, printers and other equipment)machines, printers and other equipment)

75.275.2 14.214.2 10.610.6

Humanitarian aid (food, medicine, clothing, etc)Humanitarian aid (food, medicine, clothing, etc) 73.273.2 17.317.3 9.59.5

Financial supportFinancial support 69.769.7 16.616.6 13.713.7

Moral and political support (official statements, Moral and political support (official statements, newspapers, magazines, bulletins, etc), newspapers, magazines, bulletins, etc), discussions with Belarusian officials, media discussions with Belarusian officials, media campaignscampaigns

63.463.4 21.021.0 15.615.6

Informational support (providing newspapers, Informational support (providing newspapers, magazines, bulletins, etcmagazines, bulletins, etc

65.565.5 20.820.8 13.713.7

Various supportVarious support 71.571.5 16.616.6 11.911.9Various supportVarious supportа – 10’1998а – 10’1998 55.3 55.3 10.010.0 32.332.3

ConclusionsConclusions:: There are no evidence of worsening of “economic feeling” among There are no evidence of worsening of “economic feeling” among

BelarusiansBelarusians. . Taking in mind economic indicators in a third Taking in mind economic indicators in a third quarter were not improved quarter were not improved ((increasing wages and social increasing wages and social benefitsbenefits, , decreasing prices)decreasing prices), , it means strengthening of a it means strengthening of a ««negative adaptationnegative adaptation»» mechanism when people try to meet mechanism when people try to meet challenges by reducing their needs and expectationschallenges by reducing their needs and expectations. .

However, there are signs of growing public dissatisfactionHowever, there are signs of growing public dissatisfaction: : for for the first time people blamed mostly the President the first time people blamed mostly the President for current for current economic crisis in the countryeconomic crisis in the country. .

President’s electoral rating during nine months has dropped in President’s electoral rating during nine months has dropped in 2.5 2.5 times, and got a minimal level since IISEPS monitoring evertimes, and got a minimal level since IISEPS monitoring ever ((a previous minimum was a previous minimum was 26.2% 26.2% in Marchin March 2003). 2003).

However, one can’t say about “maturing bunches of angry” However, one can’t say about “maturing bunches of angry” because a real readiness for participating in public protests because a real readiness for participating in public protests remains the same level as a decade ago. remains the same level as a decade ago. Most of Belarusians Most of Belarusians are gloomy today rather than angryare gloomy today rather than angry. .

Most part of Belarusians who became dissatisfied with their Most part of Belarusians who became dissatisfied with their economic state and blamed Lukasheko should not be economic state and blamed Lukasheko should not be considered as opposition to him and his rule. Their basic values considered as opposition to him and his rule. Their basic values (state protectionism) remain, the crisis violated their interests (state protectionism) remain, the crisis violated their interests but not values. Therefore they do not share oppositional but not values. Therefore they do not share oppositional values, and do not support opposition. It means in case of values, and do not support opposition. It means in case of economic improvement most of them return to their political economic improvement most of them return to their political positions (support or loyalty to the regime). positions (support or loyalty to the regime).

General summaryGeneral summary::

Will a “gloomy autumn” transform to a “hot Will a “gloomy autumn” transform to a “hot one” as opposition promised? Unlikely, one” as opposition promised? Unlikely, because because the BYR free exchange rate the BYR free exchange rate ((the the poll was conducted before it was poll was conducted before it was introducedintroduced) ) will to some extend reduce will to some extend reduce public irritations accumulated during spring public irritations accumulated during spring and summerand summer. . In case of Lukashenko within In case of Lukashenko within some months find financial resources ($ 3-5 some months find financial resources ($ 3-5 bln)bln), , probably the situation will be probably the situation will be smoothing. If not smoothing. If not – – the social-economic the social-economic crisis could transform in a political onecrisis could transform in a political one. .