BELARUS 2012+BELARUS 2012+The Race of OneThe Race of One

againstagainstAll and HistoryAll and History

Yauheni PreihermanYauheni Preiherman

Center for Analytical InitiativesCenter for Analytical Initiatives

PA Discussion and Analytical Society PA Discussion and Analytical Society Liberal ClubLiberal Club

Core FragmentsCore Fragments

1.1. Parliamentary elections 2012: Parliamentary elections 2012: little little to talk about, but…to talk about, but…

2.2. Political system under threat: Political system under threat: smth smth new is knocking on the doornew is knocking on the door

3.3. The eternal question of the broken The eternal question of the broken oppositionopposition

4.4. What the prospects look like? What the prospects look like?

Election 2012 central Election 2012 central issue –issue –

BOYCOTT/TURNOUT*BOYCOTT/TURNOUT*• Boycotting opposition + government + pro-government Boycotting opposition + government + pro-government

parties and NGOs = parties and NGOs = quite an effect!!!quite an effect!!!

• General perception of the role of parliamentGeneral perception of the role of parliament

• General perception of the fairness of the electionGeneral perception of the fairness of the election

• Transformation of the social contract (?) or End of Transformation of the social contract (?) or End of Lukashenka’s populist politics (?)Lukashenka’s populist politics (?)

*And that’s after last year’s financial crisis*And that’s after last year’s financial crisis

Parliamentary elections Parliamentary elections predictive variables in predictive variables in

the Belarusian the Belarusian consolidated consolidated

authoritarianism authoritarianism

Unprecedented pressure on Unprecedented pressure on Lukashenka to start changeLukashenka to start changeTraditional:Traditional:• West (EU + US)West (EU + US)• RussiaRussia• ““Third column”Third column”

ECONOMYECONOMYRecent:Recent:• Ruling elitesRuling elites

Absolutely recent:Absolutely recent:• Electorate at largeElectorate at large

The West wantsThe West wantsDemocratization Democratization

(+ macroeconomic stabilization, (+ macroeconomic stabilization, microeconomic liberalization, privatization)microeconomic liberalization, privatization)

Change of the political system!!!Change of the political system!!!

Russia wantsRussia wants

Macroeconomic liberalization + privatizationMacroeconomic liberalization + privatization

Change of the political system!!!Change of the political system!!!

““Third column” wantsThird column” wants

DemocratizationDemocratization

Change of theChange of thepolitical system!!!political system!!!

What the ruling elites wantWhat the ruling elites want

More rents (privatization) + managed democracyMore rents (privatization) + managed democracy

Change of the political system!!!Change of the political system!!!

What the electorate at large wantWhat the electorate at large want

Stable (growing) incomeStable (growing) income

It’s the economy, stupid!It’s the economy, stupid!

Change of the political system!!!Change of the political system!!!

Change is knocking on the Change is knocking on the doordoor

• “Everyone wants it, except for one person!”

• But THE ONE’s maneuvering field is shrinking

• The situation with Belaya Rus is very telling and indicative

• If Belaya Rus is transformed into a political party it will mean the end of the old politics

• New politics will bring further unpredictability, but the old politics will stay no less unpredictable

OPPOSITION never UNITEDOPPOSITION never UNITED• While the regime stays consolidated it does not really matter

what strategies the opposition adheres to (boycott/participation or united/disunited)

• The opposition will never get united sitting around a negotiation table

• Only a strong political leader/organization can unite the others (who will simply join in an inferior status)

• A political organization is strong when its leader or platform (or both) enjoy considerable popularity in society

• The main problem of the internal and external anti-regime policies are exaggerated short-term expectations!

What can be a trigger?What can be a trigger?

While the regime remains consolidated:While the regime remains consolidated:• multiple desire for change is not enoughmultiple desire for change is not enough• the opposition is incapable of the opposition is incapable of

transforming the situationtransforming the situation

ECONOMYECONOMY

Prospects: Need for ChangeProspects: Need for ChangeGDP Growth in Jan-Aug 2012

Prospects: Need for ChangeProspects: Need for ChangeForeign Trade in Jan-Aug 2012

Prospects: Need for ChangeProspects: Need for ChangeEconomyEconomy

• Unstable performance.Unstable performance.

• Uncertainty about economic rents from Russia.Uncertainty about economic rents from Russia.

• Demand for Belarusian goods and services Demand for Belarusian goods and services under question.under question.

• Risky concentration of the exports.Risky concentration of the exports.

• Customs Union/CES/Customs Union/CES/WTOWTO

• Officials on the runOfficials on the run

Lukashenka’s only available option

Some sort of (“radical”) authoritarian modernization

But can it work out?

No, it cannot!!! Belarus is not SingaporeBelarus is not Singapore

1. Lukashenka factor (“Spartak”, Kommunarka”)

2. Theory of transformations of this kind

3. Belarusian practice (systemic cursesystemic curse)

Race until the runner is out

• Belarus is doomed to stable instability.• The people are doomed to lack of sustainable

growth.• Unpredictability is enormous .• The situation is definitely qualitatively new.• If the opposition continue their usual way of

behavior, changes will take place without their participation.

As of today, the situation looks exactly like this