Beijing | Brussels | London

Beijing | Brussels | London

Global Overview of New MarketsSteve Sawyer, Secretary General

EWEA Vienna, 6 Feb 2013


Outline:

1. Status of global markets2. Short term outlook3. New Markets4. Looking Ahead and Conclusions


New investment in RES: Top 10 countries 2011,

and growth on 2010 ($bn)

Global Market Overview – Power Markets

Renewables accounted for nearly half of the estimated 208 GW of new electric capacity installed in 2011

Renewable electric power capacity worldwide reached 1,360 GW (+8%) in 2011

Renewable energy comprised more than 25% of global power generation capacity

20.3% of global electricity was produced from renewable energy

REN

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www.ren21.netwww.ren21.net


15 yr avg growth: 27.7%

2011 growth: 20.3%


15 yr avg growth: 27.5%

2011 growth: 6%


Cumulative Growth in OECD and Non-OECD markets

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

62837

77246

95149

117827

134354

152817

1117016393

25118

41037

63283

84852

OECD Non-OECD

MW


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

11,134

14,174

18,141

22,787

16,827

18,811

2,571

5,391

8,580

15,922

22,001 21,752

OECD Non-OECD

MW

Annual Growth in OECD and Non-OECD markets


New Markets

Latin America: Brazil and Mexico, followed by…? Africa: Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia; now

Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia. South Africa underway.

Asia: Mongolia, Viet Nam, Thailand, Sri Lanka. Japan?

16

MEXICO:801 MW

1014,3 MW BRASIL

ARGENTINA : 54 MW

~20

NICARAGUA: 39,6 MW

~20


WP INSTALLED CAPACITY IN LAC 2012: 2063 MW :

PAIS

Argentina

Brasil

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Cuba

Ecuador

Honduras

México

Nicaragua

Perú

Uruguay

Dominican Republic

Venezuela

Otros Caribe

Total

Caribe

Aruba

Bonaire

Curacao

Dominica

Guadeloupe

Jamaica

TOP 5 IN 2012

52%41%

3%2% 2%

TOP 5 LATAM 2012BRASILMEXICOARGENTINANICARAGUAVENEZUELA

201254

1014,300

15,300.000

80139.6

09

0.0300

2063,2

0

000000

VENEZUELA: 30 MW

LAC Wind Power installed capacity status

PAIS <2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 MW ACUMULADA

Argentina 27.88 2 0.25 3.0 80.1 54 167,23Brasil 246 89 267 326 582,6 1014,3 2.524,9Chile 20.13 0 148 3 33.0 0 203.2

Colombia 19.5 0 0 0 0 0 20Costa Rica 74 0 49.5 0 12.7 15,30 147,40

Cuba 7 0 0 4.5 0.0 0.0 11.5Ecuador 2.4 0 0 0 0.0 0 2.4

Honduras 0 0 0 0 102.0 0 102.0México 85 0 117.4 316.9 50.0 801 1.157

Nicaragua 0 0 39 23 0.0 39.6 102Perú 0.7 0 0 0 0.0 0 1

Uruguay 0.7 23 0 10 10.0 9 53Republica

Dominicana 0 0 0 0 33.0 0.0 33.0Venezuela 0 0 0 0 0.0 30 30

Otros Caribe 60 0 41 0 18 0 134,4Total 540 114 661.4 686 1227 2063,2 4692,3

Caribe

Aruba 0 0 30,0 0 0 0 30Bonaire 0 0 10,8 0 0 0 11Curacao 12 0 0 0 0 0 12

Dominica 7 0 0 0 0 0 7Guadeloupe 20,5 0 0 0 0 0 21

Jamaica 20,7 0 0 0 21 0 41,70Cuba 0 0 11,70 0 0 0 11,70

Total CARIBE 134,4


Argentina

Brasil

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Honduras

México

Nicarag

ua

Urugu

ayCari

be0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000MW Acumulados por paises

<2008

2008

2009

2010

2011

Ago 2012

Paises

MW

Acu

mul

ados

4692,3MW

<2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

New Installations MWCumulative Capacity MW

Year

Cum

ulati

ve C

apac

ity M

W

Capa

city

Inst

alle

d by

yea

r MW

Beijing | Brussels | LondonLATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN WIND POWER GROWTH FORECAST 2020 (



2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

200400600800

1000120014001600

Wind Installed Capacity - México(2005 – 2012)

New installed capacity - year Cumulative installed capacity


Mexico has many regions with premium sites for wind generation. The southern Oaxaca State is privileged.

Source: Instituto de Investigaciones Eléctricas


1,035 GW potential for exploitationThe Master Plan recommends 51 wind projects (with total planned capacity of 6,820MW) and 5 solar PV projects (with total planned capacity of 135MW) up to the period 2030.

Ethiopia


Mongolia

- >1,100,000 MW potential

- World’s largest mining project in Gobi desert – no roads, no power and no water

- GDP growth ~ 35%/y

- First commerical project nearing completion


2013 will be a tough year, with the single largest variable how far the US market will fall, how soon it will recover and what will be the trajectory; Canada and Mexico continue to grow.

China, India – modest recovery from ‘off’ 2012 – new markets in Asia begin to contribute

Europe – stable, with growth in offshore and eastern markets offsetting dire markets in S. europe Latin America – Brazil and Mexico plus…?

Africa – market ‘returns’ in Morocco, Tunisia…Egypt? South Africa gets underway and Ethiopia continues to lead.

Looking Ahead (1)


Rate of global growth will slow until and unless:

- new markets fill the ‘gap’ left by lack of growth in OECD, or…

- OECD economy recovers, and/or

- new CO2 related legislation takes effect.

Downward price pressure continues:

- Oversupply and tough economic times mean margins are slashed to the bone and competition is fierce;

- ‘Consolidation’ in manufacturing sector seemsinevitable.

Looking Ahead (2)


A global climate agreement will be fundamental for wind power to achieve its maximum potential, but for the short term:

Uncertainty:- in international political landscape- in the future of the carbon markets- in ‘new’ climate-related funds

Focus on national/regional legislation and markets

Market drivers all still in place, and increasingly prominent:energy security; cost stability; macroeconomic security;

local economic development and job creation; local environment and climate

Looking Ahead (3)


Thank you!For more information:

Steve [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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