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Behavioural Meetup: Stuart Church on Darwin to Design
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Transcript of Behavioural Meetup: Stuart Church on Darwin to Design
From Darwin to DesignStuart Church
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tsevis/3288860652
@stuchurch
Applied Behavioural Science Meetup, Bristol 19 February 2015
A tale of two careers
Academic Research User Experience
(Other) Animal Behaviour (Human) Animal Behaviour
Today…
1. What can we learn about design & innovation from evolutionary systems?
2. What can we learn about behaviour from evolutionary thinking?
Evolution & adaptation
Evolution is the change in the inherited characteristics of (biological) populations over successive generations.
“The survival of the fittest”
Variation
ReplicatorsSelection
Genes
Predators
Pathogens & disease
Physical environment
Competition
Prey
Mating
Memes
Meaning
Motivation
Utility / function
Social factors
Technological environment
Biological evolution(social learning)
Cultural evolution
Designs are ideas that are culturally inherited. Good designs serve a purpose and persist. Poor designs get forgotten.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dvanzuijlekom/7324829530
The unit of selection is the idea rather than the design itself.
Designs as memes
Species #fail
99.9% of all species that have ever existed are extinct
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bugmonkey/2844115494
Product #fail
80-95% of new products fail in the first year (Source: Acupoll)
Failure is the norm
http://www.flickr.com/photos/quasimondo/4108216751
Evolution is experimental
“The Creator, if He exists, has an inordinate fondness for beetles"
JBS Haldane
Can design be replaced by experiments?
“If you double the number of experiments you do per year you’re going to double your inventiveness”
Jeff Bezos, 2004
(Amazon runs 1000+ experiments per year on its website)
By Steve Jurvetson (Flickr: Bezos’ Iconic Laugh) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Most successful ideas & innovations tend not be that different from what already exists.
On a fitness landscape, feasible steps are the closest steps in gene space or meme space.
The ‘adjacent possible’
http://www.flickr.com/photos/33134305@N04/3090115697
1992 2007
Can ideas be too innovative?
“There was no mental slot in people’s heads that the Newton could glide into….Consumers are willing to
overlook technical glitches if they have a firm grasp of what a product is and what it’s supposed to do. “
“What’s important is that, for the first time, so many great ideas and processes have been assembled in one
device, iterated until they squeak, and made accessible to normal human beings. That’s the genius
of Steve Jobs; that’s the genius of Apple”. Bruce Tognazzoini
http://www.flickr.com/photos/wantet/305431220
Behaviours are subject to natural selection, so animals will tend to behave in ways that are close to optimal
Optimality theory & evolutionary psychology
Cialdini’s ‘pillars of persuasion’
Social proof Reciprocity Authority Likeability Commitment & consistency Scarcity
Cialdini’s ‘pillars of persuasion’
Social proof Reciprocity Authority Likeability Commitment & consistency Scarcity
"Grooming monkeys PLW edit" by Muhammad Mahdi Karim (www.micro2macro.net) Facebook Youtube (original photograph), Papa Lima Whiskey (derivative edit) - Own work. Licensed under GFDL 1.2 via Wikimedia Commons - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Grooming_monkeys_PLW_edit.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Grooming_monkeys_PLW_edit.jpg
The Prisoner’s Dilemma
Played once Only sensible strategy is to DEFECT
For Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma Best strategy is TIT-FOR-TAT (be nice, then follow opponent). i.e. the best possible strategy in the long term is a cooperative one.
A classic example of ‘Game Theory’
• 2 suspects, arrested on suspicion of a crime • Put in separate cells and asked to testify against the other • So, can either testify (defect) or stay silent (cooperate)
‘Raising the stakes’What if we can vary the amount of we invest in altruistic acts? (e.g. amount of time spent grooming).
Some possible strategies are:
• Give as good as you get • Non-altruistic • Raise the stakes • Short changer • Occasional short changer • Occasional cheat
‘Raise the stakes’ is an ESS - start low and, if matched, invest more next time
Roberts & Sherratt (1998) Development of cooperative relationships through increasing investment. Nature 394: 175-179
Reciprocity is powerful & deeply embedded
Start with small, low risk acts of kindness….
Implications
‘Giving’ (in whatever form) to people/customers etc elicits a strong desire for others to respond in kind
‘Copying’ is a successful strategy
Science. 2010 Apr 9;328(5975):208-13. doi: 10.1126/science.1184719. Why copy others? Insights from the social learning strategies tournament. Rendell L1, Boyd R, Cownden D, Enquist M, Eriksson K, Feldman MW, Fogarty L, Ghirlanda S, Lillicrap T, Laland KN.
Rendell et al (2010) set up a computer tournament to explore how successful social learning strategies are in the long term.
The scenario was a ‘restless multiarmed bandit’ - 100 behaviours, each associated with a different payoff. Aim is to maximise payoff over the long run. 108 teams entered different strategies.
Strategy options are to: innovate, copy or exploit.
The winning strategy relied almost exclusively on social learning!
“In an environment where the world is changing, the best strategy is a lot if imitation”