Behavioural Insights & Poverty · Your account number: Dear Toby You are in arrears, and being...
Transcript of Behavioural Insights & Poverty · Your account number: Dear Toby You are in arrears, and being...
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Behavioural Insights & Poverty
Kizzy Gandy
Belgium – 21 November 2017
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Outline of presentation
1. About the team
2. Introduction to behavioural insights
3. Relationship between poverty and decision-making
4. Examples of BIT’s work
5. BIT’s project methodology
6. Questions
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1.
About the team
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We were the first government institution dedicated to applying behavioural science
“Our government will find intelligent ways to encourage, support and enable people to make better choices for themselves.”
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We are now a social purpose company with offices around the world
2010 2012-13 20152014 2016
Employees
2017
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The focus of our work
BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTSEXPERIMENTAL
METHODS
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2.
Introduction to behavioural insights
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What are Behavioural Insights?
Behavioural Insights
Psychology
Ethnography
Behavioural Economics
Neuroscience
Understanding how people behave in practice so that we can design policy, programs and services better
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Which would you choose?
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Which would you choose?
Option A:
Internet-only subscription for $59
Option C:
Print-and-Internet subscription for $125
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Which would you choose?
Option A:
Internet-only subscription for $59
Option B:
Print-only subscription for $125
Option C:
Print-and-Internet subscription for $125
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What people want depends on how choices are presented
32,0%
84,0%
Two Options Irrelevant Alt.
Source: Dan Ariely experiment with students
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We use cognitive short-cuts to make hundreds of decisions every day
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Present bias
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Present bias – an adaptive trait when resources were scarce?
McClure, S. M., Laibson, D. I., Loewenstein, G., & Cohen, J. D. (2004). Separate neural systems value immediate and delayed monetary rewards. Science, 306(5695), 503-507.
Immediate reward = limbic system (emotion)
Deferred reward = prefrontal cortex (cognition)
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It’s often more effective to change the environment, instead of human cognition
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Nudging has a long history
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Regulation
Incentives
Information
£
Behavioural insights improve traditional tools for policy making…
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…especially when combined with rigorous testing
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Two different ways of applying behavioural insights
High-level policy(goals, rules, structures, funding, “terms of the debate”)
Opportunistic delivery(timing, wording, design, friction costs, trial and error)
Incr
emen
tal
chan
ge“S
tep
ch
ange
”
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Testing small, low cost interventions can greatly improve the effectiveness of public policies
Doctors who say they are most familiar with antibiotic guidelines are the least likely to follow them (Linder et al, 2010).
10 million deaths and $100 trillion in unachieved GDP a year by 2050
The great majority (80%) of practices in London prescribe fewer antibiotics per
head than yours
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The letter saved 73,406 doses of antibiotics across 791 practices
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
July August September October November December January February March
An
tib
ioti
c i
tem
s d
isp
en
se
d
per
100
0 w
eig
hte
d p
op
ula
tio
n
(3,3
00 G
Ps )
Control Treatment
The UK Government has set aside £23m to reduce prescribing by 1% which is close to our overall impact of 0.85% (when sent to everyone) but our intervention cost virtually nothing
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Japan: Nudge Unit of Japan
UK: (i) The Behavioural Insights Team (BIT); & (ii) nudge units in 13 departments
Singapore: (i) BIT Singapore; (ii) Prime Minister’s Office; & (iii) Ministry of Manpower
‘Nudge Units’ around the world
Denmark: The Danish Nudging Network
Norway: Greenudge
Finland: Prime Minister’s Office
Sweden: Swedish Nudging Network
Netherlands: (i) Ministry of Economic Affairs; & (ii) Ministry of Infrastructure & the Environment
Canada: (i) BIU, Provincial Government of Ontario; (ii) Innovation Hub, The Privy Council Office; & (iii) BEAR University of Toronto
Chicago: Chicago Nudge Unit
Washington DC: White House Social and Behavioural Sciences Team
NYC: (i) BIT North America; & (ii) Ideas42
Canberra: Behavioural Economics Team of the Australian Government
Sydney: (i) BIT Australia; & (ii) Behavioural Insights Unit, New South Wales
Melbourne: Department of Premier and Cabinet, Victoria
European Commission: Behavioural Science and Foresight Team
World Bank:Global Insights Initiative
OECD: Behavioural science coordination
Germany: Chancellor’s Office
Kuwait: Behavioural Insights Unit
New Zealand: BIT New Zealand
Ireland: Behavioural Economics Unit
Indonesia: DG Tax BI Task Force
Bangladesh: a2i BI team
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3.
Poverty and decision-making
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Poverty and decision-making
1 How does poverty affect decision-making and vice versa?
2What can policy-makers learn from behavioural science to prevent and reduce poverty?
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Emerging research on scarcity
5,9%5,2%
Pre harvest Post harvest
$$$
Mani, Mullainathan, Shafir & Zhao (2013). Poverty impedes cognitive function. Science. 341(6149), 976-
980
Cognitive errors made by Indian sugar cane farmers
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A holistic approach
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4.
Examples of BIT’s work to boost different forms of capital
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Cognitive capital
• Mortgage arrears
• Housing vouchers
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How can we encourage borrowers in long-term mortgage arrears to contact their lender?
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Reciprocity and loss aversion
Your account number:
Dear Toby
You are in arrears, and being charged substantial fees. Please contact us now so we can help.
01923 280324
You’ve missed or under-paid a number of payments on your loan account XXXXX, putting you in arrears since XXXX, and we’ve been unable to contact you recently. You are currently being charged £53 every month you fail to make the full monthly payment. By being in arrears you also face paying significantly more interest on your loan.
These fees are avoidable, but if you do nothing they will continue to be charged.
Even if you are having financial difficulty or are unable to make your full monthly payments every month, there is a good chance I can help you avoid these fees, and get you back on track, by setting up a more manageable payment plan.
I can only help you avoid these ongoing charges if you get in touch, so please do contact me on 01923 280324. You can ask for me personally, and I’ll do my best to find a solution.
Yours sincerely,
Lis
These fees are avoidable, but if you do nothing they will continue to be charged.
…there is a good chance I can help you avoid these fees…
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‘Call to action’ and salience
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35% increase in households making contact with Central Home Loans
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How can we encourage housing voucher tenants to recertify?
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Reciprocity or social norms
Join thousands of tenants in NYC and submit your Annual Recertification online!
We created an account just for you to submit your Annual Recertification online!
“Reciprocity” “Social norms”
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People care what their neighbours do!
New NYCHA residents that recertified online and on time
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Social capital
• Adult skills
• Uni application
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How can we help 16-19 year olds persist with maths and English?
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Hi Jane, please ask Alice to explain the four operations in maths. Also ask her: when does order matter? Thanks, Uxbridge College.
Upcoming deadlines
Useful websites
College activities
Academic resources
Exam dates
Course content
Students nominated a Study Supporter to receive weekly SMS
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Study Supporter Survey
Opted out Opted in
Supporters not texted (control)
Supporters texted
(treatment)
n = 1,476
How the trial was structured
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19%22%
28,1%
Did not opt in Opted in - control Opted in - treatment
*Passed all exams
Students were 27% more likely to pass – It cost less than £10 per student over the year
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How can we encourage high achieving pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds to apply to competitive universities?
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Letter from a ‘similar’ pupil currently studying at Bristol University
“Back in 2009, I was in exactly the same position as you… I came to realise that
people with grades like you and me are in high demand from very prestigious
universities.”Ben Cole, University of Bristol
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Russell Group applications increased 17%
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Russell Group acceptances increased 34%
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Character capital
• Parental engagement
• Police recruitment
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How can we encourage parents to engage in child development activities?
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“Parent” “Science”
You can have fun and
play games with your
child while doing
everyday things. You
can play even while
getting dressed! Click
here to watch: bit.ly/123
Your child is learning
constantly from what’s
around him, which helps
him to grow smarter. He
can learn even while
getting dressed! Click
here to watch:
bit.ly/1234
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“Parent” “Science”
You can have fun and
play games with your
child while doing
everyday things. You
can play even while
getting dressed! Click
here to watch: bit.ly/123
Your child is learning
constantly from what’s
around him, which helps
him to grow smarter. He
can learn even while
getting dressed! Click
here to watch:
bit.ly/1234
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Click-through engagement rate by text
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YouTube views engagement rate by text
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How can we improve the diversity of police recruitment?
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We asked candidates to think about their values to overcome ‘stereotype threat’
Arm Email content
Treatment “Before you start the test, I’d like you to take some time to think about why you want to be a police constable. For example, what is it about being a police constable that means the most to you and your community?”
Control Standard email
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Our email closed the gap in the percentage of white and BME candidates that passed the test
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Recommendations
1. Policy-makers should aim to minimise time and mental costs of engaging in government services.
2. There is potential for behavioural science to improve the effectiveness of anti-poverty interventions with a combination of small tweaks to the user-interface of programs and larger policy interventions.
3. Anti-poverty interventions that account for positive and negative feedback loops between the different forms of capital, over different time horizons, will be most effective and efficient.
• e.g., supportive social networks improve responsive parenting, which supports brain development, with long term effects on learning.
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TARGET SOLUTION
TRIAL
EXPLORE
5. Introduction to BIT’s project methodology:
T.E.S.T.
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A Behavioural Insights Team project is built around four main components – T.E.S.T.
Target
Explore
Solution
Trial
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Reduce unemployment
Get jobseekers back to work faster
Target: Define the outcome
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1 JobCentre
Loughton
Explore: Understand the context
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• Spent 2 months in Loughton
• Learnt from JobCentreAdvisors and jobseekers
Explore: Ask, listen, experience, analyse
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Customer journey:
1. Time until first job focused meeting >2 weeks
2. Initial contact with Job Advisors too focused on conditionality
3. Duplication of effort (9 forms to be signed at first meeting)
4. Jobseekers focused on doing the minimum to qualify for benefits(3 job searches in between meetings)
5. Job search logs rarely filled in properly
6. Jobseekers are not motivated or lose motivation easily
Explore: What we learnt
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Solution: Job focused meeting on first daywith planning assistance
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Solution: Positive psychology writing exercise
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We took advantage of an unusual set up:
• Jobseekers are arbitrarily assigned between two floors (allocation by off-site contact centre)
• Staff experience and performance is matched between the two floors
We changed 2nd floor processes and left the 1st floor unchanged
Control: 1st floor
Treatment: 2nd floor
Trial: Test, learn, adapt to find out if the new process works
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51% 56%
Control Treatment
Percentage of jobseekers finding work within 13 weeks
Trial: New process got jobseekers into work more quickly…
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Trial: Adapt and scale
• We kept: new start-up process & implementation intentions
• We dropped: positive psychology training
12 JobCentres
Essex
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Results for Essex Stepped Wedge trial
56,8% 58,5%
Control Treatment
Percentage of jobseekers finding work within 13 weeks
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750 jobcentresin Englandand Wales
Successfully replicated and implemented in Singapore and
Australia
Rolled-out to nationally: equates to savings of £50-100 million per year of welfare costs
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6.
Questions?
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Annex
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BIT’s EAST framework
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Make it easy• Use the power of defaults
• Reduce the barriers to taking up a service
• Simplify messages
Make it attractive• Attract attention
• Design rewards and sanctions for maximum effect
• Personalise
Make it social• Show that most people perform the desired behaviour
• Use the right messenger
• Ask people to give something in return
Make it timely• Prompt people when they are likely to pay attention
• Consider the immediate costs and benefits
• Help people plan their response to events
E
A
S
T
EAST: summary
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How can we get low income residents to schedule a free doctor’s appointment?
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Three message variants to low income New Orleans residents who hadn’t seen a doctor in two years
Control: Simplicity Ego Prosocial
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Which text worked best in getting low income residents to schedule a doctor’s appointment?
*
*
1,0%
1,4%
0,7%
Simple Ego Prosocial
*** p<.001, ** p<.01, * p<.05
Percent responding "yes" to schedule appointment (n = 21,442)
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How can we increase the number and diversity of individuals who apply to the police?
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Challenge and Career messages tripled the number of applicants to the police
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Challenge and Career messages were particularly motivating for people of colour
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How can we improve adult numeracy and literacy?
Arm Example text message
Treatment “James, we hope you sometimes find Maths hard. We learn by studying and practising the tricky stuff, so keep it up! Leicester College”.
Control No text
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Our weekly texts increased attendance by 21% and exam performance by 12%