Begin with introductory video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zH-dBsbOxbY

Climate Change & Sea-Level Rise Along the Gulf of Mexico

A COSEE Online Institute Presentation

Dr. E.D. Estevezestevez@mote.org

Mote Marine Laboratory

Today’s Topics

Sea level background

Signs of sea-level rise

Projections of future sea-level rise

Visualizing sea level now and in the future

Sea-Level Variations

• Waves• Tides• Storm Surges• Seiches• Intra-Annual Cycles• Multi-Annual/Decadal Cycles (El Niño, AMO)• Planetary Cycles (Milankovitch Cycles)• Anthropogenic Forcing

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/

In the Context of Climate Change…

The main contributors to sea level and sea-level rise are:

1. Steric effects- the expansion of the world ocean as it warms

2. “New water”- addition of water from ice sheets and glaciers

Other factors are also involved.

SubsidenceSubsidence, or the sinking of land, has multiple

causes.Without sea-level rise, a subsiding coast

experiences a relative rise in sea level.Subsidence added to sea-level rise enhances the

rate of relative sea-level rise.Subsidence contributes to the loss of coastal

wetlands, butCoastal wetlands and forests are also affected by

the present rate of sea-level rise, even in the absence of subsidence.

Effects: Sea Level RiseWHAT WE KNOW

 Many tidal wetlands are keeping pace with sea level changes. Some are accreting vertically, migrating up-slope, or both.

Open estuarine waters, brackish marsh, and mangroves in south Florida estuaries are expanding.

Wetlands elsewhere are perishing as estuarine and coastal forests and swamps are retreating, replaced by marsh vegetation.

Even at constant rates of sea level rise, some tidal wetlands will eventually “pinch out” where their upslope migration is prevented by upland defenses such as seawalls.

Effects: Sea Level Rise

WHAT IS PROBABLE

Major spatial shifts in wetland communities, including exotic species invasions, will occur.

  More lowland coastal forests will be lost during the next one to three centuries as tidal wetlands expand across low-lying coastal areas.

  High diversity wetlands in tidal freshwater reaches of coastal rivers will be replaced by low diversity wetlands.

 Most tidal wetlands in areas with low freshwater and sediment supplies will “drown” if sea level rise outpaces their ability to accrete vertically.

Effects: Sea Level RiseWHAT IS POSSIBLE

More than half of the saltmarsh, shoals, and mudflats critical to birds and fishes foraging in Florida estuaries, could be lost during the 21st century.

 Recreational and commercial fish species that depend on shallow water, or intertidal and subtidal plant communities, are vulnerable.

 The loss of tidal wetlands will result in dangerous losses of the coastal systems that buffer storm impacts.

 

Lido Key, Sarasota County, FloridaWednesday 09/16/09 11:05 am (2.4 ft. astronomical)

Gulf Waters Flooding Storm-water Drains at Normal High Tide

We Already Adapt

• Seawalls, Docks and Piers

• Bridges and Causeways

• Stormwater Systems

• Beach Policies and Practices

• Wetland Creation

• Building Heights

• Disaster Preparedness

www.floridaoceanscouncil.org

Sea-Level Rise Visualization for Alabama and Mississippi.

http://gom.usgs.gov/slr/slr.html

This pilot project is a collaborative effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Coastal Services Center, Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium, and U.S. Geological Survey.

Insert second video with pan of beach

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWVG2AyI1nQ

Mobile State Docks, Mobile Riverhttp://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=8737048 Mobile State Docks

Used with permission by Sarasota Magazine www.sarasotamagazine.com

For Local HelpLouisiana Universities Marine Consortium• http://www.lumcon.edu

Gulf Coast Research Laboratory• http://www.usm.edu/gcrl

Dauphin Island Sea Lab• http://www.disl.org

NOAA CO-OPS Water Level Program• http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov

Thank You, and Thanks to…Brian M. McCann, Ph.D. Center for Educational and Training TechnologyMultimedia Development GroupMississippi State University

Rusty Holmes and Joe NickelsonMote Marine Laboratory

Barbara LauscheMote Marine Policy Institute

Sarasota Magazine

Anonymous reviewers

…and the many public agencies from whom slides were borrowed.