Economics of Hay Production Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock.
Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy and Dr. John McKissick Extension Livestock...
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Transcript of Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy and Dr. John McKissick Extension Livestock...
Beef Cattle Situation and OutlookDr. Curt Lacy and Dr. John McKissick
Extension Livestock Economists
MED. & LRG. #1 & 2 STEER CALF PRICES500-600 Pounds, Georgia, Weekly
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2001-05
2006
2007
2008
Livestock Marketing Information Center 01/02/08
MED. & LRG. #1 & 2 FEEDER STEER PRICES700-800 Pounds, Georgia, Weekly
75
80
85
90
95
100
105$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2001-05
2006
2007
2008
Livestock Marketing Information Center 01/02/08
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICESSouthern Plains, Weekly
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2002-06
2007
2008
C-P-5201/15/08Livestock Marketing Information Center
Recent and Projected Beef Supply
23.5
24
24.5
25
25.5
26
26.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ActualProjected
Total Meat Supplies
0
20
40
60
80
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Beef Pork Lamb/ Mutton Broilers Turkeys
87.191.8590.7689.585.4
What is the Market Offering Today-Futures Based Price Projections
$80.00
$85.00
$90.00
$95.00
$100.00
$105.00
$110.00
Feb Apr
J un Aug O
ctDec Feb A
pr
$/C
wt.
500# calf 650# Feeder 750# Feeder Live Cattle
What is the Market Offering Today-Futures Based Price Projections
$400.00
$450.00
$500.00
$550.00
$600.00
$650.00
$700.00
$750.00
Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov
$/h
ea
d
500# calf 650# Feeder 750# Feeder
What You Can Sell for Today-Futures Based Price Projections
$800.00$850.00$900.00$950.00
$1,000.00$1,050.00$1,100.00$1,150.00$1,200.00$1,250.00$1,300.00
$/h
ea
d
L ive Cattle
Fuel Prices 1997-2006
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$/
Gallo
n
Diesel (bulk)
Diesel prices are up 145% since 2002
Impact of Fuel & Fertilizer Prices on Cost of Production
$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100$110
2002 2007
500# Calf ($/ Cwt.) Hay ($/ ton)
Projected Profits for 2008Item South
GeorgiaNorth
Georgia
Expected Returns Over Variable Costs ($/cow)
($3.13) ($30.58)
Chance for positive returns 48% 30%
Returns to Land, Labor, Capital and Management ($/cow)
$56.87 ($2.80)
Breakeven Price ($/cwt.) $100.32 $101.73
BEEF COWS THAT HAVE CALVEDJANUARY 1, 2007(1000 Head)
950 to 5,310 (11)520 to 950 (9)300 to 520 (8)
90 to 300 (11)0 to 90 (11)
C-N-1502/02/07
717Alaska
Hawaii
US Total
6.5
175 921
700725
CT 7
DE 4
950
585
85.2
473
427234
1070
1500 1207
490
11
MD 50
MA 7111
405
518
2146
1382
1940233
NJ 9
440
112
392
939
296
2000
575
150RI 1.5
203
1669
1153
5303
344
VT 10
710
265
212
265
763
32894
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
NH 4
JANUARY 1 COW INVENTORYU.S., Annual
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Mil. Head
Beef
Dairy
C-N-0207/20/07
-0.3 Percent
2007 = 32.9 Million Head
+0.7 Percent2007 = 9.1 Million Head
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS
January 1, U.S.
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Mil. Head
C-N-3807/20/07
-0.5 %
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
Beef Cow FactoryJanuary 1, U.S.
3
13
23
33
43
53
63
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Mil. Head
Heifers Cows 2008 Projection
C-N-3801/28/05
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
-1.0%
Live Cattle DemandAnnual, Beef Production, 5-Area Live Cattle Price
90
919293
94
959697
98
99
0001
02
0304
0506
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
22.00 23.00 24.00 25.00 26.00 27.00 28.00 Beef Production, Mil. Pounds
$/C
wt.
Old Demand New Demand
2007
DEMAND FOR FEEDERSRelationship Between GA Steer Prices and Omaha, NE
Corn Prices
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
Fedd
er P
rice
$/C
wt.
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
Cor
n Pr
ice
$/B
u.
500-600# GA Steer Price 700-800# GA Steer Price Omaha Corn Price
Energy Bill 36 billion gallons of ethanol used by blenders by
2022. 15 billion gallons required to come from corn by
2015. 15 billion gallons ethanol ≈5.4 billion bushels of
corn. 2007 U.S. corn crop = 10.54 billion bushels. At 2007 yield of 153 bushels, need 35.29 million
acres just for ethanol.
Big Picture Things to Consider Impacts of Ethanol on Feed Costs Source Verification Natural/Organic Markets National Animal ID MCOOL
Market
Political
Summary & Implications Supply
The herd has expanded some but the drought has halted growth for this year. It is likely that the drought will have longer term implications other than cow
numbers. Demand
Demand for beef remains good but,…economy is a big question!! Higher corn prices will reduce demand for feeders Exports will help.
Profits Most cow-calf producers will be hard pressed to cover out of pocket expenses for
next 2-4 years. Higher feed, fuel and fertilizer costs will continue to squeeze profits. Lower prices for feeders may make retained ownership and heifer retention more
feasible. Know the RISKS!!!