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BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts: Overview and Recent Research Activities Robert L. Brown...
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Transcript of BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts: Overview and Recent Research Activities Robert L. Brown...
BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts:
Overview andRecent Research Activities
Robert L. BrownUnderstanding Regional Economic Data for Policy and
PlanningDallas, Texas
September 8, 2006
2www.bea.gov
BEA’s Regional Accounts Data
Personal income State, quarterly and annual Local area, annual
Counties, metro areas, BEA economic areas
Gross State Product (GSP) by industry Annual for 81 industries
Regional input-output multipliers RIMS II For user defined regions
3www.bea.gov
Uses of BEA’s Regional Accounts
To distribute over $215 billion in Federal grants to states
Revenue and expenditure forecasts
Economic development planning
New business location and expansion decisions
Assessment of local impacts of development or disaster
Econometric forecasting models
4www.bea.gov
BEA’s Regional Accounts Initiatives
Accelerated estimates
New statistics
Improved estimates
Other research
5www.bea.gov
Accelerated estimates
Metropolitan area personal income From 16 to 9 months after the end of the year 2005 released September 6
Gross State Product From 17 to 6 months after the end of the year
June 6 release for 2005 total GSP October 26 release for 2005 GSP by industry
Compensation of employees by industry and county From 13 to 12 months after the end of the year 2004 released December 30, 2005
6www.bea.gov
New Statistics: Local Area Data
Metro area disposable personal income Researching the estimation of personal
current taxes for metro areas Subtracted from personal income to derive DPI
Some results… Bridgeport, CT per capita personal current
taxes 16,150—26.1% of personal income McAllen, TX per capita personal current taxes
1,082—7.4 % of personal income
7www.bea.gov
New Statistics: More Local Area Data
Gross metro product (GMP) Initial estimates—top-down approach:
Allocate GSP by local area earnings data
Research into bottom-up approach for non-labor part of GMP Taxes and gross operating surplus Research using sub-state Census Bureau
data
8www.bea.gov
New Statistics: Longer Time Series
Carry time series back in time on a NAICS basis Annual State earnings back to 1990
In September 2006 Will evaluate extent of BLS suppressions of W&S
for counties GSP back to 1992
Requires back-casting Census Bureau data at Center for Economic Studies
Historical GSP on SIC basis GSP now released (in April) for 1963 forward
9www.bea.gov
New Statistics: Interarea Prices
Indexes that permit place to place comparisons correcting for price level differences
Jointly with the BLS, using CPI microdata Intermediate goal: produce indexes for 38
urban areas Covers 87 percent of US population
CPI covers urban areas, so state indexes require additional data
BEA Advisory Committee presentation and Working Paper in 2005
Article scheduled for September Monthly Labor Review
10www.bea.gov
New Statistics: Alternative Estimates of Regional Income and
Product Develop alternative household
income measures that better meet user needs to: Measure spending capacity Track tax base
Develop alternative GSP methodology to estimate gross output and intermediate expenses
11www.bea.gov
Improved Estimates: Regional Multipliers
Improve methods to “regionalize” the national input-output accounts
Capture interregional flows of goods and people
Produce value-added multipliers In addition to gross output multipliers
currently produced Much of this research will be
undertaken with Commodity Flow Survey microdata At the Census Bureau’s Center for Economic
Studies
12www.bea.gov
Improved Estimates: New Source Data
IRS Information Returns data Potential information on
Pension disbursements and roll-overs to aid in estimating alternative income measures
Non-filers who receive information returns but don’t need to file tax returns
Information to reconcile state personal income with adjusted gross income
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data for estimating employers’ contributions to health insurance Provide better interarea variation on health
insurance contributions
13www.bea.gov
Other Research
Intra-industry Trade among states The American Community Survey
(ACS) and the Local Employment Dynamics (LED) datasets as substitutes for the decennial Census long-form
Interactive Web-based state and county personal income mapping
14www.bea.gov
Regional Working Papers and Presentations in One Location
Go To: BEA Home
Regional Articles Tool
Bar Regional
Working Papers and Presentations