BCD_081985

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEMalcolm Baldrige, Secretary

Sidney L Jones, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSISAllan H. Young, Director

Edward K. Smith.Ass6ciate Director forNational Analysis and Projections

Feliks Tamm, Editor

This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of EconomicAnalysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication a r e -

Barry A. beckmanTechnical supervision and reviewBrian D. KajuttiComposite indexesBetty F. TunstallData collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)

The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefullyacknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles andsources at the back of this report.

This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consistingof the following persons:

Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department ofLabor

Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and BudgetLincoln F. Anderson, Council of Economic AdvisersJohn H. Auten, U.S. Department of the TreasuryEdward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of CommerceCharles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of CommerceHelmut F. Wendel, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

ABOUT THIS REPORT

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) providesa monthly look at many of the economic timeseries found most useful by business analystsand forecasters.

The original BCD, which began publicationin 1961 under the title Business Cycle Develop-ments, emphasized the cyclical indicators ap-proach to the analysis of business conditionsand prospects. The report's contents were basedlargely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,and fagging indicators maintained by theNational Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase itsusefulness to analysts using other approaches tobusiness conditions analysis. Principal additionsto: the report were series from the national in-come, and product accounts and series based onsurveys of businessmen's and consumers' an-ticipations and intentions. The composite in-dexes were added at that time, and the report'spresent title was adopted. ., .

The dominant feature/of the current BCD isthe cyclical,indicators section, in which eachbusiness cycle indicator is assigned a three-waytimirtg classification according to its behavior atpeaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section issupplemented by a section containing other im-portant economic measures. The- method ofpresentation Is explained in the introductory textwhieK feegirts on page 1.

Most of the data contained in this reportalso are published by their source agencies. Aseries finding guide and a complete list of seriestitles and sources can be found at the back of thereport.Cyclical Indicators are economic time serieswhich have been singled out as leaders, coin-ciders, or laggers based on their general confor-mity to cyclical movements in aggregateeconomic activity. In this report, cyclical in-dicators are classified both by economic processand by their average timing at business cyclepeaks, at business cycle troughs,and at peaksand troughs combined. These indicators havebeen selected primarily on the basts of theircyclical behavior, but they also have provenuseful in forecasting, measuring, and in-terpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregateeconomic activity.Other Economic Measures provide additional in-formation for the evaluation of current businessconditions and prospects. They include selectedcomponents of the national income and productaccounts; measures of prices, wages, andproductivity; measures of the labor force,employment, and unemployment; economicdata on Federal, State, and local government ac-tivities; measures of U.S. international transac-tions; and selected economic comparisons withmajor foreign countries.

Annuaj subscription price: $44.00 domestic,$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4-00 domes-tic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates areavailable oh request. Address correspondence

concerning subscriptions to Superintendent ofDocuments, U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, DC. 20402. Make checks payabletd Superintendent of Documents.


BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATIONSeasonal Adjustments 1MCD Moving Averages 1Reference Turning Dates 1Part I. Cyclical Indicators 1Part II. Other Important Economic Measures 4How To Read Charts 5How To Locate a Series 5Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes . , 6

BCIIAUGUST 1 9 8 5Data Through JulyVolume 25, Number 8

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PART I.CYCLICAL INDICATORS

COMPOSITE INDEXES ANDTHEIR COMPONENTS Chart TableComposite indexes 10 60Leading Index Components 12 Coincident Index Components 14 Lagging Index Components 15

CYCLICAL INDICATORSBY ECONOMIC PROCESSEmployment and Unemployment 16 61Production and Income 19 63Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries 21 64Fixed Capital Investment 23 65Inventories and Inventory Investment 26 68Prices, Costs, and Profits 28 69Money and Credit 31 71

DIFFUSION INDEXESAND RATES OF CHANGEDiffusion Indexes 36 74Selected Diffusion Index Components 77Rates of Change . 39

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The Secretary of Commerce has determined for printing this periodical has been approvedthat the publication of this periodical is neces- by the Director of the Office of Managementsary in the transaction of the public business and Budget through April 1, 1986.required by law of this Department. Use of funds


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PART II.OTHER IMPORTANTECONOMIC MEASURES

NATIONAL INCOMEAND PRODUCT Chart TableGNP and Personal Income 40 80Personal Consumption Expenditures 41 80Gross Private Domestic Investment 42 81Government Purchases of Goods and Services 43 81Foreign Trade 44 82National Income and Its Components 45 82Saving '. 46 82Shares of GNP and National Income 47 83

PRICES, WAGES,AND PRODUCTIVITYPrice Movements 48 84Wages and Productivity 49 87

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,AND UNEMPLOYMENTCivilian Labor Force and Major Components 51 89

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIESReceipts and Expenditures 52 90Defense Indicators 53 90

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSMerchandise Trade 56 92Goods and Services Movements 57 93

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONSIndustrial Production 58 94Consumer Prices 59 95Stock Prices 59 96

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PART III. APPENDIXESA. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)

QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)B. Current Adjustment Factors (May 1985 issue)C. Historical Data for Selected Series 97D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical IndexSeries Finding Guide1')E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1985 issue)F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators 104G. Experimental Data and Analyses 105Alphabetical IndexSeries Finding Guide 110Titles and Sources of Series 114


Readers are invited to submit comments andsuggestions concerning this publication.Address them to Feliks Tammt Chief, StatisticalIndicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230

NEW FEATURESAND CHANGESFOR THIS ISSUE

A REMINDER

Copies Of the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS Stillare available. This 190-page reference volume containsuseful information concerning the economic time seriesin BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST, including series descrip-tions, the composite index methodology, historical data,and selected reference materials. The 1984 HANDBOOK isavailable for $5.50 (stock number 003-010-00127-5) fromthe Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Print-ing Office, Washington, DC 20402.

Changes in this issue are as follows:

1. The series on change in total liquid assets (series104) has been revised by the source agency for the period 1959to date to reflect the application of new seasonal adjustmentfactors.

Further information concerning this revision may beobtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal ReserveSystem, Division of Research and Statistics, Banking Section.

2. The industrial production index for Canada (series723) has been revised by the source agency for the period 1983to date. This revision reflects the annual updating of basicdata and the application of new seasonal adjustment factors.

Further information concerning this revision may beobtained from Statistics Canada, Industry Product Division,Ottawa K1A 0V5, Canada.

3. Appendix C contains historical data for series 10,20, 24, 27, 47, 62, 69, 73-76, 82, 84, 557, 961, 963, and 966.

4. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series20, 40, 51, 76, 91, and 914.

A limited number ofchanges are made fromtime to time to in-corporate recent find-ings of economicresearch, newly avail-able time series, andrevisions made bysource agencies inconcept* composition,comparability, coverage,seasonal adjustmentmethods, benchmarkdata, etc. Changes mayresult in revisions ofdata, additions ordeletions of series,changes in placement ofseries in relation toother series, changesin composition ofindexes, etc.

The September issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduledfor release on October 3.

in


SIX BEA PROJECTSFOR ECONOMICANALYSIS

For further information (including prices andordering instructions) on any of these items,please write to the Bureau of Economic Analysis,U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington,DC 20230.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST A monthly report for analyzingeconomic fluctuations over a short span of years.This report brings together many of the economic time series most useful to business analysts andforecasters. In the cyclical indicators section, each of about 110 business cycle indicators is assigneda three-way timing classification according to its cyclical behavior at peaks, troughs, and all turns.This section also includes important analytical measures, such as composite indexes of leading, coin-cident, and lagging indicators and selected diffusion indexes. A second section contains other impor-tant economic data on prices, wages, productivity, government and defense-related activities, U.S. in-ternational transactions, and international comparisons.About 300 time series are shown in analytical graphs that help to evaluate business conditions andprospects. Current data are shown in accompanying tables. Appendixes provide historical data,seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, cyclical comparisons, and other useful informa-tion. A computer tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.

HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS A reference volume con-taining valuable background information for users of Business Condi-tions Digest.This recurrent report provides descriptive and analytical information on the economic time seriespresented monthly in Business Conditions Digest. Included are series descriptions, historicaldata, and measures of variability. For the cyclical indicators and composite indexes, special tablesshow detailed scoring measures and average timing at cyclical peaks and troughs. Verbal andalgebraic explanations of the composite index methodology are also provided.

LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH A report for the study of economictrends over a long span of years: 1860-1970.This report provides a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy by presenting relevantstatistical time series in easy-to-follow analytical charts and convenient data tables. It is a basicresearch document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students, bringing together inone volume a complete statistical basis for the study of long-term economic trends. A computer tapefile of the time series included in the report is available for purchase.

COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS The sourcestatements for FORTRAN IV programs used by BEA in its analysis oftime series are available on a single computer tape.SEASONAL A D J U S T M E N T PROGRAMSTwo variants of the Census computer programmeasure and analyze seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations. They are particularlyuseful in analyzing economic fluctuations that take place within a year. The X- l l variant is used foradjusting monthly data and the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well asmultiplicative adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.INDEX PROGRAMThis program computes composite and diffusion indexes and summarymeasures of the properties of each index.T I M E SERIES PROCESSORThis program, through simple commands, performs a variety ofarithmetic, statistical, and manipulative operations on time series data.

A monthly report for analyzingSURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESScurrent economic developments.Features include a review of current economic developments; articles pertaining to BEA's workon the national, regional, and international economic accounts and related topics; quarterlynational income and product accounts tables; and over 1,900 major economic series obtainedfrom other public and private sources.

BUSINESS STATISTICS A reference volume containing statisticalseries reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.This report provides historical data on statistical time series. The series are accompanied byconcise descriptions of their composition, methods of compilation, comparability, revisions, andavailability. Also listed are the names and addresses of organizations that provide the data forthe series.


METHOD OF PRESENTATION

This report is organized into two major parts.Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 timeseries which have been found to conform well tobroad fluctuations in comprehensive measures ofeconomic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these areindividual indicators, the rest are related analyticalmeasures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,and rates of change. Part II, Other ImportantEconomic Measures, covers over 140 series whichare valuable to business analysts and forecastersbut which do not conform well enough to businesscycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are afew exceptions: Four series which are included inpart I are also shown in part II to complete thesystematic presentation of certain sets of data,such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largestsection of part II consists of quarterly series fromthe national income and product accounts; othersections relate to prices, labor force, governmentand defense-related activities, and internationaltransactions and comparisons.

The two parts are further divided into sections(see table of contents), and each of these sectionsis described briefly in this introduction. Data areshown both in charts and in tables. Most chartsbegin with 1959, but those for the compositeindexes and their components (part I, section A)begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panelformat which covers only the period since 1973.Except for section F in part II, charts containshading which indicates periods of recession ingeneral business activity. The tables contain datafor only the last few years. The historical data forthe various time series are contained in the 1984Handbook of Cyclical Indicators,

In addition to the charts and tables describedabove, each issue contains a summary table whichshows the current behavior of many of the series.Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,measures of variability, specific cycle turningdates, cyclical comparison charts, and otherinformation of analytical interest. An index appearsat the back of each issue. It should be noted thatthe series numbers used are for identificationpurposes only and do not reflect preciserelationships or order. However, all seriesconsidered as cyclical indicators are numbered inthe range 1 to 199.

Seasonal AdjustmentsAdjustments for average seasonal fluctuations

are often necessary to bring out the underlyingtrends of time series. Such adjustments allow forthe effects of repetitive intrayear variationsresulting primarily from normal differences inweather conditions and from various institutionalarrangements. Variations attributable to holidaysare usually accounted for by the seasonaladjustment process; however, a separate holiday

adjustment is occasionally required for holidayswith variable dates, such as Easter. An additionaladjustment is sometimes necessary for serieswhich contain considerable variation due to thenumber of working or trading days in each month.As used in this report, the term "seasonaladjustment" includes trading-day and holidayadjustments where they have been made.

Most of the series in this report are presented inseasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, theseare the official figures released by the sourceagencies. However, for the special purposes of thisreport, a number of series not ordinarily publishedin seasonally adjusted form are shown here on aseasonally adjusted basis.MCD Moving Averages

Month-to-month changes in a series are oftendominated by erratic movements. MCD (months forcyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appro-priate span over which to observe cyclicalmovements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)It is the smallest span of months for which theaverage change in the cyclical factor is greater thanthat in the irregular factor. The more erratic aseries is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages ofthe period equal to MCD) tend to have about thesame degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5will show its cyclical movements about as clearlyas the seasonally adjusted data for a series with anMCD of 1.

The charts in this report generally includecentered MCD moving averages for those serieswith an MCD greater than 4. The seasonallyadjusted data are also plotted to indicate theirvariation about the moving averages and to provideobservations for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates

The historical business cycle turning dates usedin this report are those designated by the NationalBureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). Theymark the approximate dates when, according toNBER, aggregate economic activity reached itscyclical high or low levels. As a matter of generalpractice, neither new reference turning dates northe shading for recessions will be entered on thecharts until after both the new reference peak andthe new reference trough bounding the shaded areahave been designated.

The historical reference turning dates are subjectto occasional reviews by NBER and may be changedas a result of revisions in important economictime series. The dates shown in this publicationfor the 1948-70 time period are those determinedby a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designatedturning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and1981-82.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Business cycles have been defined as sequencesof expansion and contraction in various economicprocesses that show up as major fluctuations in ag-gregate economic activitythat is, in com-prehensive measures of production, employment,income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,business cycles of historical experience have beendefinitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly induration and intensity, reflecting changes ineconomic systems, conditions, policies, andoutside disturbances.

One of the techniques developed in businesscycle research and widely used as a tool for analyz-ing current economic conditions and prospects isthe cyclical indicators approach. This approachidentifies certain economic time series as tendingto lead, coincide with or lag behind the broadmovements in aggregate economic activity. Suchindicators have been selected and analyzed byNBER in a series of studies published between1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a newcomprehensive review of cyclical indicators wascarried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER researchstaff. The present format and content of part I ofBCD are based on the results of that study.

Section A. Composite Indexes andTheir Components

All cyclical indicators have been evaluated ac-cording to six major characteristics: Economicsignificance, statistical adequacy, consistency oftiming at business cycle peaks and troughs,conformi ty to business expansions andcontractions, smoothness, and prompt availability(currency). A formal, detailed weighting schemewas developed and used to assess each series by allof the above criteria. (See articles in the May andNovember 1975 issues of BCD.) The resultingscores relate to cyclical behavior of the seriesduring the period 1947-70. This analysis produceda new list of indicators classified by economicprocess and typical timing at business cycle peaksand troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text belowrelating to section B.)

This information, particularly the scores relatingto consistency of timing, served as a basis for theselection of series to be included in the compositeindexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoringseries from many different economic-processgroups and combine those with similar timingbehavior, using their overall performance scores asweights. Because they use series of historicallytested usefulness and given timing characteristics(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),with diversified economic coverage and a minimumof duplication, composite indexes give morereliable signals over time than do any of theindividual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

1Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks

N . Economic\ P r o c e s s

C y c l i c a l ^ .Timing \ .

LEADING (L)INDICATORS(61 series)

ROUGHLYCOINCIDENT (C)INDICATORS(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)INDICATORS(19 series)

TIMINGUNCLASSIFIED (U)(8 series)

1.EMPLOYMENT ANDUNEMPLOYMENT(15 series)

Marginal employmentadjustments(3 series)

Job vacancies(2 series)

Comprehensiveemployment(1 series)

Comprehensiveunemployment(3 series)

Comprehensiveemployment(I series)

Comprehensiveunemployment(2 series)

Comprehensiveemployment(3 series)

It.PRODUCTIONAND INCOME(10 series)

Capacity utilization(2 series)

Comprehensiveoutput and income(4 series)

Industrialproduction(4 series)

III.CONSUMPTION,TRADE, ORDERS,AND DELIVERIES(13 series)

Orders and deliveries(6 series)

Consumption andtrade (2 series)



IV.FIXED CAPITALINVESTMENT(18 series)

Formation of businessenterprises(2 series)

Business investmentcommitments(5 series)

Residentialconstruction(3 series)


Business investmentexpenditures(5 series)

Business investmentexpenditures(1 series)


V.INVENTORIESAND INVENTORYINVESTMENT(9 series)

inventoryinvestment(4 series)

Inventories onhand and onorder(1 series)

Inventories onhand and onorder(4 series)

VI.PRICES, COSTS,AND PROFITS(18 series)

Stock prices(1 series)

Sensitive commodityprices (2 series)

Profits and profitmargins (7 series)

Cash flows (2 series)

Unit labor costsand labor share(4 series)

Sensitive commodityprices ( i series)

Profits and profitmargins (1 series)

VII.MONEY ANDCREDIT(28 series)

Money (5 sertes)Credit flows

(5 series)Credit difficult^

(2 series)Bank reserves

(2 series)Interest rates

(1 series)

Velocity of money(2 series)

Interest rates(2 series)


Outstanding debt(4 series)


B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs

\ Economic\ ^ P r o c e s s

C y c l i c a l l \Timing x .

LEADING (L)INDICATORS(47 series)

ROUGHLYCOINCIDENT (C)INDICATORS(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)INDICATORS(40 series)

TIMINGUNCLASSIFIED (U)(1 series)

1.EMPLOYMENT ANDUNEMPLOYMENT(15 series)

Marginal employmentadjustments(1 series)

Marginal employmentadjustments

independent measurement error and other "noise"in the included series are smoothed out in theindex as a whole. The indexes include only monthlyseries that are acceptable in terms of relativelyprompt availability and reasonable accuracy.

The main composite indexes are distinguished bytheir cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index ofleading indicators, series which historically reachedtheir cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than thecorresponding business cycle turns. There is anindex of roughly coincident indicators, consistingof series which historically reached their turningpoints at about the same time as the generaleconomy, and an index of lagging indicators, whichincludes series that typically reached their peaksand troughs later than the corresponding businesscycle turns.

The leading index contains series with long aswell as short leads, but each series leads on theaverage over time and shows a frequency of leadsat the individual turns exceeding that attributableto chance, given the historical distribution ofcyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies tothe components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,leads were generally more frequent and longer atpeaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lagswere generally more frequent and longer at troughsthan at peaks. The adopted system of scoring andclassifying the indicators takes into account thesewell-established differences in t iming.Consequently, rough coincidences include shortleads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exactcoincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range isfrom -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through+3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads andplus denotes lags in months.)

For purposes of constructing a composite index,each component series is standardized: The month-to-month percent changes in a given series aredivided by the long-run average (without regard tosign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatileseries are prevented from dominating the index.The coincident index is calculated so that its long-term trend (since 1948) equals ttjie average of thetrends of its four components. This trend, which issimilar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can beviewed as a linear approximation to the secularmovement (at an average growth rate) in aggregateeconomic activity. The indexes of leading and lag-ging indicators have been adjusted so that boththeir trends and their average month-to-monthpercent changes (without regard to sign) are ap-proximately equal to those of the coincident index.(For a more detailed description of the method ofconstructing the composite indexes, see the 1984Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)

In addition to these principal composite indexes,differentiated according to cyclical timing, thereare five indexes based on leading indicators whichhave been grouped by economic process. Takentogether, these additional indexes include all 12component series of the overall leading index, plusa few related series. Also shown in this section isthe ratio of the index of roughly coincident

indicators to the index of lagging indicators, aseries known to have a useful pattern of earlycyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts ofthe composite indexes show the length, in months,of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the referenceturning dates covered.

The next set of data consists of series includedin the principal composite indexes. These are the12 components of the leading index, the 4components of the coincident index, and the 6components of the lagging index. Following the titleof each series, its typical timing is identified bythree letter symbols in a small box. The first ofthese letters refers to the timing of the givenindicator at business cycle peaks, the second to itstiming at business cycle troughs, and the third toits timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughscombined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" atendency to roughly coincide with the businesscycle turns (as represented by the NBER-designated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendencyto lag. Since these series have been selected for theconsistency of their timing at both peaks andtroughs, all components of the leading index aredenoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincidentindex "C,C,C," and all components of the laggingindex "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered thatthese classifications are based on limited evidence,namely the performance of the indicators duringthe business cycles of the 1948-70 period, whichincluded five peaks and five troughs. While thetiming classifications are expected to agree withthe patterns prevailing in the near future, they willnot necessarily hold invariably in every instance.The timing of the series in the period since 1970can be determined by inspection of the charts,where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and1981-82 are shaded according to the dates ofthe NBER reference cycle chronology.

Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process

This section covers 111 individual time series,including the 22 indicators used in theconstruction of the composite indexes. The peakand trough timing classifications are shown on thecharts in the same manner as described above, butthis section includes series with different timing atpeaks and at troughs, as well as series where thetiming is not sufficiently consistent to be classifiedas either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilisticmeasures and scoring criteria adopted. Such seriesare labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing atturning points of the given type. Eight series areunclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite butdifferent timing at peaks and at troughs). No seriesthat is classified as U both at peaks and at troughsis included in the list of cyclical indicators.

The classification scheme which groups theindicators of this section by economic process andcyclical timing is summarized in the twotabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A isbased on the observed behavior of the series at fivebusiness cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,

August '57, April '60, and December '69); cross-classification B, on their behavior at five businesscycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,February '61, and November 70). Each tabulationdistinguishes seven major economic processes andfour types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cellsidentify subgroups of the given economic processwith the given timing characteristic. The number ofseries in each such group is given in parenthesesfollowing the title. Complete information on howindividual indicators are classified by timing atpeaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selectedmeasures and scores, is provided in the 1984Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.

Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change

Many series in this report are aggregatescompiled from numerous components. How theindividual components of an aggregate move over agiven timespan is summarized by a diffusion indexwhich indicates the percentage of components thatare rising (with half of the unchanged componentsconsidered rising). Cyclical changes in thesediffusion indexes tend to lead those of thecorresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexesare highly erratic, they are computed from changesmeasured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.Longer spans help to highlight the trends underly-ing the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexesare shown for the component series included ineach of the three composite indexes and for thecomponents of some of the aggregate series shownin section B.

Diffusion measures can be derived not only fromactual data but also from surveys of anticipationsor intentions. Indexes based on responses ofbusiness executives about their plans andexpectations for several operating variables arepresented, along with the corresponding indexesbased on actual data, as the last set of diffusionseries.

This section also records rates of change for thethree composite indexes (leading, coincident, andlagging) and for four indicators of aggregateeconomic activity: GNP in constant dollars(quarterly), industrial production, employee hoursin nonagricultural establishments, and personalincome less transfers in constant dollars. Rates ofchange are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for1-quarter spans.

Although movements in diffusion indexes and inrates of change for the same aggregates aregenerally positively correlated, these two measurespresent information about two related but distinctaspects of economic change. Diffusion indexesmeasure the prevailing direction or scope ofchange, while rates of change measure the degreeas well as the overall direction. As is the case fordiffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the ratesof change tend to lead those of the correspondingindexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to leadat the business cycle turns as well.


Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMICMEASURES

This part is divided into six sections which covera wide range of quarterly and monthly time seriesmeasuring various aspects of economic activity.Some of these series are very comprehensive,pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, othershave to do with particular sectors or markets, andstill others relate to U.S. international transactionsor to selected foreign countries. The representedvariables include incomes, outputs, andexpenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;labor resources; government receipts,expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex-ports and imports; and selected indicators for a fewkey foreign countries.Section A. National Income and Product

The national income and product accounts,compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts andfinal expenditures for the personal, business,foreign, and government sectors of the economy.

Section Al shows the gross national product,final sales, and personal and disposable personalincome. The four major components of the grossnat ional productpersonal consumpt ionexpenditures, gross private domestic investment,government purchases of goods and services, andnet exports of goods and services-are presented insections A2 through A5. Most of the series insection A are presented in current as well asconstant dollars. There are also a few per capitaseries. The national income and product accounts,briefly defined below, are described more fully inthe Survey of Current Business, Part I,January 1976.

Gross national product (GNP) is the marketvalue of final goods and services produced by thelabor and property supplied by residents of theUnited States, before deduction of allowances forthe consumption of fixed capital goods. It is themost comprehensive measure of aggregateeconomic output. Final sales is GNP less change inbusiness inventories.

Personal income is the income received bypersons (individuals, owners of unincorporatedbusinesses, nonprofit institutions, private trustfunds, and private noninsured welfare funds) fromall sources. It is the sum of wage and salarydisbursements, other labor income, proprietors'income, rental income of persons, dividends,personal interest income, and transfer payments,less personal contributions for social insurance.

Disposable personal income is the personalincome available for spending or saving. It consistsof personal income less personal taxes and nontaxpayments to government.

Personal consumption expenditures (A2) isgoods and services purchased by individuals,operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, andthe value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,and financial services received in kind by in-dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in-cluded.

Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixedcapital goods purchased by private business andnonprofit institutions and the value of the changein the physical volume of inventories held byprivate business. The former include all privatepurchases of dwellings, whether purchased fortenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of usedgoods are also included.

Government purchases of goods and services(A4) is the compensation of government employeesand purchases from business and from abroad. Itexcludes transfer payments, interest paid bygovernment and subsidies. It includes grossinvestment by government enterprises but excludestheir current outlays. It includes net purchases ofused goods and excludes sales and purchases ofland and financial assets.

Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exportsless imports of goods and services. Exports are partof the national production; imports are not, but areincluded in the components of GNP and aretherefore deducted. More detail on U.S.international transactions is provided in section E.

National income (A6) is the incomes thatoriginate in the production of goods and servicesattributable to labor and property supplied byresidents of the United States. Thus, it measuresthe factor costs of the goods and services pro-duced. It consists of the compensation ofemployees, proprietors' income, rental income ofpersons, corporate profits, and net interest.

Saving (A7) is the difference between incomeand expenditures during an accounting period.Total gross saving includes personal saving,business saving (mainly undistributed corporateprofits and capital consumption allowances), andgovernment surplus or deficit

Shares of GNP and national income (A8).Themajor expenditure components of GNP(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed aspercentages of GNP, and the major incomecomponents of national income (compensation ofemployees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed aspercentages of national income.

Section 6. Prices, Wages, and Productivity

The important data on price movements includethe monthly consumer and producer price indexesand their major components. Based largely onthese series are the quarterly price indexes fromthe national income and product accounts, notablythe GNP implicit price deflator (with weightsreflecting the changing proportions of differentexpenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed-weighted price index for the gross business prod-uct. Data on both levels and percent changes arepresented for the period since 1973.

The group of series on wages and productivityconsists of data on average hourly earnings andaverage hourly compensation (including earningsand other benefits) in current and constant dollars,output per hour of work in the business sector, andrates of change for most of these measures.

Section C. Labor Force, Employment, andUnemployment

This section contains measures of the civilianlabor force and its major components: Totalnumbers of employed and unemployed persons.The number of unemployed is subdivided intoselected categories defined by sex, age, and classof worker. Also included are data on participationrates for a few principal segments of the laborforce.

Section D. Government Activities

Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (sur-plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:(1) Federal Government and (2) State and localgovernment. Also shown is a selection of seriesfrom the discontinued Defense Indicators.These series measure defense activities whichinfluence short-term changes in the nationaleconomy. Included are series relating toobligations, contracts, orders, production,shipments, inventories, outlays, and employmentThese series are grouped according to the time atwhich the activities they measure occur in thedefense order-production-delivery process. Seriesmeasuring activities which usually precede pro-duction, such as contract awards and new orders,are classified as "advance measures of defenseactivity." Series measuring activities which tend tocoincide with production, such as employment andactivities which usually follow production, such asshipments, are classified as "intermediate and finalmeasures of defense activity."

Section E. U.S. International Transactions

This group includes monthly series on exports(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus afew selected components of these aggregates. Alsoshown are the balances between receipts andexpenditures for goods and services, merchandise,and investment income.

Section F. International Comparisons

This section is designed to facilitate a quickreview of basic economic conditions in six of thenations with which we have important traderelationships. The U.S. business cycle shading hasbeen omitted from these charts. Data on industrialproduction, consumer prices, and stock prices forCanada, the United Kingdom, France, West Ger-many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the cor-responding U.S. series. Also included is an in-dustrial production index for the Europeancountries in the Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development (OECD). The in-dustrial production series provide cyclically sen-sitive output measures for large parts of theeconomies covered. Changes in consumer price in-dexes (plotted for the period since 1973) provideimportant measures of the rates of inflation in themajor industrialized countries. Stock prices (alsoshown beginning in 1973) tend to be significant asleading indicators.


HOW TO READ CHARTS

Peak (P) of cycle indicatesend of expansion and begin-ning of recession (shadedarea) as designated by NBER.

Solid line indicates monthlydata. (Data may be actualmonthly figures or movingaverages.)

Broken line indicates actualmonthly data for series wherea moving average is plotted.

Solid line with plotting pointsindicates quarterly data.

Parallel lines indicates a breakin continuity (data not avail-able, extreme value, etc.).

Solid line indicates monthlydata over 6- or 9-monthspans.

Broken line indicates monthlydata over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plottingpoints indicates quarterlydata over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting pointsindicates quarterly data overvarious spans.

Diffusion indexes and ratesof change are centered withinthe spans they cover.

Solid line indicates percentchanges over 3- or 6-monthspans.

Broken line indicates percentchanges over 1-month spans.

Solid line with plotting pointsindicates percent changes over3- or 4-quarter spans.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES

Basic Data

Diffusion Indexes

Rates of Change

Trough (T) of cycle indicatesend of recession and begin-ning of expansion as desig-nated by NBER.

Arabic number indicates latestmonth for which data areplotted. ("9" = September)Dotted line indicates antici-pated data.

Roman number indicateslatest quarter for which dataare plotted. ("IV" = fourthquarter)Various scales are used tohighlight the patterns of theindividual series. "Scale A"is an arithmetic scale, "scaleL-1" is a logarithmic scalewith 1 cycle in a given dis-tance, "scale L-2" is a log-arithmic scale with two cyclesin that distance, etc.

Arabic number indicates latestmonth for which data areused in computing the in-dexes.

Roman number indicateslatest quarter for which dataare used in computing the in-dexes.

Dotted line indicates antici-pated quarterly data overvarious spans.

Arabic number indicates latestmonth used in computingthe changes.

Broken line with plottingpoints indicates percentchanges over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicateslatest quarter used in com-puting the changes.

1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE atthe back of the report where series are arranged alphabeticallyaccording to subject matter and key words and phrases of theseries titles, or -

2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back ofthe report where series are listed numerically according toseries numbers within each of the report's sections.


Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators

Series title and timing classification'Unitof

measure

Basic data8

Annual average

1983

4th Q1984

1st Q1985

2dQ1985

May1985

June1985

July1985

Percent change

Mayto

June1985

Juneto

July

4th Qto

1st Q1985

1st Qto

2dQ1985

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORSA l . Composite Indexes

910. Twelve leading indicators L.L.L...920. Four roughly coincident indicators C,C,C...930. Six lagging indicators LgtLg,Lg..,940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index L,L,L..

1967 = 100...dododo

Leading Indicator Subgroups:914. Capital investment commitments LFL,L.915. Inventory investment and purchasing . . LrL,L916. Profitability . .. LrLrL917. Money and financial flows . .. L,L,L

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process6 1 . Employment and Unemployment

Marginal Employment Adjustments:* 1 . Average weekly hours, mfg L,L,L.21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.} L,C,L.5, Average weekly initial claims (inverted1) L,C,L

.do.do

.do.

Hours....do

Thousands

Job Vacancies:60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3 L,Lg,U..46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers L,Lg,U,.

Comprehensive Employment:48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments U,C,C.42, Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities U.C.C.

4 1 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls C,C,C.40. Employees in goods-producing industries L,C,U..90. Ratio, civilian employment to population

of working age3 U,Lg,U..

Ratio1967 = 100...

A.r., bil. hrs...Millions

doThousands

Percent

Comprehensive Unemployment:37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted4) U g , U -43. Unemployment rate (inverted4)3 L,Lg,U..,45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.4)3 L,Lg,U...

9 1 . Average duration of unemployment (inverted4) Lg,Lg,Lg..44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)1 Lg.Lg.U-

B2. Production and Income

Comprehensive Output and Income:50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars C,C,C...52. Personal income in 1972 dollars C.C.C--

* 5 1 . Personal income less transfer paymentsin 1972 dollars C.C.C....

53. Wages and salaries in 1972 dollars, mining, mfg.,and construction C,C,C...

Industrial Production:*47. Industrial production C,C,C.

73. Industrial production, durable mfrs C,C,C.74. Industrial production,, nondurable mfrs C.L.L..49, Value of goods output in 1972 dollars C,C,C.

Capacity Utilization:82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3.. L,C,U..84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3 L,C,U..

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries

Orders and Deliveries:6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods L,L,L..7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, durable goods L,L,L.

*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goodsand materials L.L.L..

25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3 L,L,L..96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5 L,Lg,U..

*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 0 L.L.L..

ThousandsPercent

doWeeksPercent

A.r.. bil. dot..do

do

1977 = 100dodo

A.r., bil, dol

Percentdo....

Bil. dol....do

...do....do

Bil. dol., EOP ...Percent

Consumption and Trade:56. Manufacturing and trade sales C,C,C.

*57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars C,C,C.75. Industrial production, consumer goods C.L.C..54. Sales of retail stores C,L,U..59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars U.L.U..55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles L,C,C-58. Index of consumer sentiment (u) L,L,L.

Bil. dol. do

1977 = 100Bit. dol

B4. Fixed Capital Investment

Formation of Business Enterprises:12. Net business formation L.L.L...

13. New business incorporations L.L.L...

Business Investment Commitments:10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment.. L,L,L...

*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipmentin 1972 dollars L.L.L..

24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods L,L,L...27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense

capital goods L.L.L..

A.r., bil. dolIQ 1966=100

1967 = 100Number

Bil. dol

dodo

....do.

156.0139.9111.7125.A

108.8102.8104.7130.7

40.13.0426

0.27196

168.1597 .4590.20

23,334

57 .15

10,7179.63 .8

20 .03,8

1534.71284.6

1095.0

213.5

109.2107.7113.7688.6

74.075.3

87 .7436,96

34.072.69

320.1254

368.77161.70

109.397.8647.75

88.387 .5

114.850,162

13.4022 .73

165.7154.5117.3131 .8

110.3105.3110.8136.4

40.73 .4366

0.459131

176.87101.68

94.4624,730

58.79

8,5397.52 .8

18.22 .4

1639.31366.5

1177.4

224.8

121.8124.8122 .5764.5

80.882.3

41.44

37 .332.11

345.4461

411.30176.08

118.2108.08

51.76102.3

97 .5

117 .152,960

31.29

15.4326.95

13.64

164.5157 .7121 .9129.3

109.6103 .2112.5135.9

40 .53 .4396

0.504139

178.47102.66

95.8524,973

59.07

8,2337 .22.8

17.12.1

166 2.41389.5

1200.2

226.3

123.1127.3123.5778.8

81.181.4

100,7541.32

37.29-1 .63

345.4449

417.83178.44

119.3109.92

52 .48101.8

9 5.0

116.853,193

31.01

14.9826 .33

13.07

167 .3158.5125.0126.8

110.5102 .7113.1138.9

40.43.3390

180.17103.3996.64

25,077

59.38

8,4267.32.9

15.72.1

1663 .51399.5

1204.0

228.3

123.8127 .7123.6773,0

80.581.5

102.4941.8937.98

0.55347 .10

47

418.93179.09

119.2111.64

53.05103.2

94.5

117 .7

30.95

15.7526.78

14.07

167 .4159.6127 .4125.2

110.1102.0

NA136.3

40.33.2387

0.472133

181 .19103.4697.33

25,055

59.26

8,4177.32.8

15.52.0

1671.61403.0

1208.9

227.2

124.4128.1125.07 7 0.8

80.480.5

103.1541 .91

37.580.69

349.17

424.64181 .18120.3

114.5054.21105.594.3

116.2

30.65

14.8326.35

13.12

167.4159.7128.2124.6

109.7102.0114.2136.1

40.43.1383

0.464131

181 .39103 .6597 .42

25,066

59.37

8,4137.32.8

14.91.9

1398.3

1204.0

227.2

124.3128.0125.1

80 .480.2

102.9741 .86

37.880.25

345.1344

428.28182.71

120.4114.8854.42

91.8

114.3

30.03

14.7925.59

13.02

168.0158.9128.2123.9

110.7101.6

NA136.0

40 .43.2392

0.488138

181 .70103.2397.45

25,009

58.99

8,4137.32 .815.42.0

168.7159.2127 .8124.6

110.5101 .4

NA137.1

40.43.2381

0.490139

181 .45103 .7497.69

25,021

59.21

8,4517 .32 .8

15.42.0

0.4-0.50

-0.6

0.9-0.4

NA-0,1

0.0.1

-2.3

0.0245.3

0.2-0.40.-0.2

-0.38

0.0.0.

-3 .4-0.1

1398.5

1205.2

227 .1

124.7128.2125.6

1401 .7

1205.3

226.8

124.9128.5126.0

0.

0.1

0 .

0.30.20.4

80 .480.3

106.6543 .18

37.404.04

349.1744

419.16179.19120.9

113.2853.66

80.480.3

103.6342.02

37 .600.94

350.1144

NANA

121.3113.7453 .96

0.0.1

3.63 .2

-1.33.791 .2

0

-2.1-1.90.4

-1 .4-1 .4

96.5 94.0

15.5728.01

15.0326 .23

12.89

5.1

2 .9NA

6,3

5.39.5

7.7

0.40.2

-0.30.6

-0.2-0.2

NA0.8

0.0.2.8

0.0020.7

-0.10.50.20.

0.22

-0.50.0.0.0.

0.2

0.

-0.1

0.20.20.3

0.0.

-2 .-2.7

0.5-3.10

0.30

NANA

0.30.40.6

-2.6

0.3NA

-3.5-6.4

-8.1

1 .70.52.5

-1.9

0.8-0.50,52.2

-0.2-0.11 .5

-0.013

1 .00.70.80.4

0.31

-2.3-0.1-0.18.20.

0.10.7

0.3

0.9

0.6

-0.7

-0.60.1

1.71 .4

1.92.180 .5-2

0.30.4

-0.11.61 .11.4

-0.5

0.8NA

5.11.7

0.10.71 .9

-1,3

-0.4-0.7

NA-1.9

-0.2-0.10.8

-0.019-4.3

-0.1

-0.12

0.10,0.11.30.1

0.50.2

0.4

-0.5

0.50.31.1

-0.3

-0.1-1.0

0.60.

-1 .10.140.6-3

1.41.20 .92 .62.22.2

-0.2

-1.3NA

-5.8-1.6


Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal IndicatorsContinued

Series title and timing classification1Unitol

measure

Basic data*

Annual average

19834th Q1984

1st Q 2dQ1985

May1985

June1985

July1985

Percent change

Mayto

June1985

Juneto

July1985

4th Q

1st Q1985

1st Qto

2dQ1985

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORSCon.B4. Fixed Capital InvestmentCon.

Business Investment CommitmentsCon.:9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and

industrial buildings, floor space l,C,U....11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg U,lg,U....97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.s C,Lg,Lg....

Business Investment Expenditures;61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment C,Lg,Lg....69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business

construction expenditures C,Lg,Lg....76. Industrial production, business equipment C,Lg,U....86. (Presidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars C,Lg,C...

Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:28. New private housing units started L,L,L...

*29. Building permits, new private housing units L,L,L...89. Residential fixed investment in 1972 dollars L,L,L...

Mit.sq. ftBil. dolBil. dol., EOP .

A.r.,bil. dol...

.do1977 = 100...A.r., bil. dol...

A.r., thousands.1967 = 100A.r., bil. dol

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment

Inventory Investment:30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars3 L,L,L...

*36. Change in mfg, and trade inventories on hand and onorder in 1972 dollars (smoothed5)3 L,L,L...

31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value3 L,L,L...38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies

on hand and on order, book value* L.L.I

Inventories on Hand and on Order:71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5 Lg,Lg,Lg,...70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1972 dollars5 Lg.lg.Lg....65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value5 Lg,Lg,Lg....

*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in1972 dollars3 Lg,Lg,Lg....

78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on handand on order, book value5 L,Lg,Lg....

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits

Sensitive Commodity Prices:98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3 L,L,L...23. Spot market prices, raw industrial mater ia ls U,L,L...

*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)1 L,L,L...Stock Prices:

*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (u) L,L,L...Profits and Profit Margins:

16. Corporate profits after tax ! L,L,L...18. Corporate profits after tax in 1972 dollars L,L,L...79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj L,C,L...80 do.: , in 1972 dollars L,C,L...15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3 L,L,L...26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business L,l,L...

Cash Flows:34. Corporate net cash flow L,L,L...35. Corporate net cash flow in 1972 dollars L,L,L...

, do

dodo........

Bil. dol

Bil. dol., EOP .do

....do

Ratio

Bil. dol., EOP .

Percent1967 = 100...Percent

1941-43=10..

A x , bil. dol........do

do...do

Cents1977 = 100...

Ax, bil. dol..,....do

Unit Labor'Costs and Labor Share:63. Unit labor cost, business sector Lg,lg,Lg....68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,

nonftnancial corporations Lg,LgrLg62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.

a) Actual data Lg,Lg,Lg....*b) Actual data as percent of trend* Lg,Lg,Lg....

64. Compensation of employees as percent ofnational income3 , Lg,Lg,Lg....

87. Money and Credit

Money:85. Change in money supply M l 3 L,L,L..,.

102. Change in money supply M23 L,C,U....104. Change in total liquid assets* L,L,L...105. Money supply M l in 1972 dollars L,L,L...

*106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars L,L,L...

Velocity of Money:107. Ratio, GNP to money supply M l 3 C,C,C...108. Ratio, personal income to money supply NS23 C,Lg,C...

Credit Flows:33. Net change in mortgage debt3 L,L,L...

112. Net change in business loans3 L,L,L...113. Net change in consumer installment credit3... t,L,L...

* l l l . Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3 L,L,L...110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers L,L,L...

1977 = 100...

Dollars

1967 = 100...Percent

do..,do...do...

Bil. dol

..do

A x , bil. dol........do

Credit Difficulties:39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted4)3' .. L,L,L...

doA.r., percent...A x , bil. dol....

Percent EOP ...

6 3 . 5 62 2 . 0 07 3 . 5 0

304 .78

320.64115.4171.0

1 ,7031 3 1 . 1

5 3 . 7

- 3 . 6

1 .9811 . 1

5 2 0 . 2 82 5 9 . 0 2

80.96

1.59

2 08 .73

1 .24258.5

1.03

160.41

12760

149.471.2

4.098.0

318.9149.3

156.0

1.409

215.995.1

75.0

0 .780.950.87

214 .0. 886 .2

6 . 4 8 21 . 3 0 0

3 7 . 5 53 . 2 8

47 . 7 35 .7

390.99

1.94

78.0730 .1997 .65

353.54

375.00134.9204.9

1,747134.660.2

24.8

21.2953.2

573.43278.97

89.69

1 .54

217 .30

-0.37278,9-0.19

160.46

145.968.0

195.992.04.6

99.6

367.3169.2

157 .6

1 .425

212.488.3

0.470.670.93

219.5917.2

6.7201 .322

100.3853.6776.3615.2

460.07

2.0 9

83 .1729.1997.65

367 .21

396.32139.1213.8

1,598124.759.2

16.8

11,4031.8

-1.68

573.43278.97

89.69

1.56

217 .30

-0.12265.5-0.48

165.19

141.065.0203.995.04.3

100.1

375.3171.3

158.4

1 .438

213.686.9

73.4

0.420.900.84

220.0932.3

6.7911 .320

62.9639.5274.12

9.9571.89

2.09

83.6 830.51

103.17

371 .16

391 .54140.2213.0

1,795132.960.0

19.1

8.2021.3

-0.97

578.77282 .72

90.12

1 .57

214.40

-1.02253.8-0.77

177.30

137.062.4

207 .09 5.44.2

99.4

378.9171.8

161 .9

1 .462

216 .286.7

0.800.800.77

224.0952.6

6.7081 .301

78.1330.8598.4212.1

414.25

81 .87NANA

385.31

402 .22142.1219.0

1,7 69138.160.8

8.3

1.795;3

-0.27

580.09283.58

89.87

1.56

213 .61

0.27250.7-0.33

184.80

136.561.8

212 .797.7

NA99.5

387 .4174.6

162.7

1.473

215.085.0

1.100.59

NA227 .3955.3

6.6171.297

80.83-2.0896 .39

9.4NA

83.99

398.34142.2

1,681141.8

0.02-29.0

-1.54

577.78282.76

90.13

1.55

211 .93

0.94252.0-0.22

184.90

214.985.0

1 .170.710.50

227 .0954.0

1 .294

66.4132.3910 8.50

11.3

69.68 91 .89 -17.0

404.59142.0

NA141.6

1.6-0.1

1,694136.5

1,654135.1

0.8-3.7

-3.5727.7

1 .68

580.09283 .58

89.87

1.58

213 .61

0 .10242.9-0.13

188.89

NANA

NA

NANANA

-0.07240.7-0.35

192.54

-3.5956 ,7

3.22

0.40,3

-0.3

0.03

0.8

-0.84-3.60.09

214.984.6

214.684.1

0.-0.4

1.651.15

NA230.2962.8

0.790.72

NA231.6967 .9

0.480.44

NA1 .40.9

31.9

NA-0.3

-2.4-1 .0

-0.17-0.9

-0.22

1.9

-0.1-0.5

-0.86-0.43

NA0.60.5

1 .285

84.91-53 ,3381.43

5.3

NA24.06

NA6.

-0.009

18.50-85,72-27 .07

-6.0

-0,005

NA77,39

NA0.8

2.33 2.25 NA -0.08

0.64.55.7

1.1

-1.20.8

-0.4

12.36.61 .4

-3,20-10.5

0.71

0.91 .30.5

0.01

-1.3

-0.90-4.4

-0.29

7,3

-2.8-4.01 .50.4

-0.1-0.7

1.00.3

2.2

1.7

1 .2-0.2

0.38-0.10-0.07

1 .2.2

-0.019

15.17-8.6724.30

2 .2-27 .6

-0.31

-2.2NANA

3.8

2.8

-1.43.91.3

-6.41-16 .0

0.20 .3

-0.3

-0,01

1 .29-1 ,20.44

4.2

-0.4-1.02.82.4NA

0.1

2,21 .6

0.5

0.8

-0,6-1 .7

0.30-0.21

NA1.50.3

-0.091-0.004

2.70-32.93-2.03-2.7

NA

0.07

91197

61

697686

282989

3631

38

717065

982399

19

161879801526

3435

63

68

6262

85102104105106

107108

33112113111110

39



Series title and timing classification1Unitof

measure

Basic data2

Annual average

1983 19844th Q 1st Q

19852d Q1985

May1985

June1985

July1985

Percent change

Mayto

June1985

June

July1985

4th Q

1st Q1985

1st Qto

2dQ1985

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORSCon.67. Money and Credit-Con.

Bank Reserves;93. Free reserves (inverted*)3 L.U.U..94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 L,Lg,U...

Interest Rates;119. Federal funds r a t e 3 L.lg.Lg..114. Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s 1 C,Lg,Lg..116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds1 . .. lg,Lg,Lg .115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 C,Lg,t.g...117. Yield on municipal bonds3 U,Lg,Lg..118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3 .... Lg,Lg,Lg.67. Bank rates on short-term business ,oans J Lg,Lg,Lg...

*109. Average prime rate charged by banks1 ... . Lg.Lg.Lg..

Outstanding Debt;66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5 Lg,Lg,Lg....72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .... Lg,Lg,Lg..

*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in1972 dollars Lg,Lg,Lg..

*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to-personal income* Lg,Lg,Lg-.

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURESB. Prices, Wages, and Productivity

B l . Price Movements

310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) . . ,

320c. Change in CPI-U (S/A)3322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food330. Producer price index (PPI), all commodi t ies335. PPI, industrial commodities 331. PPI, crude materials for further processing332. PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components333. PPI, capital equipment334. PPI, finished consumer goods

Mil. dol. ... . . .do. .

Percent....do...

. . .do. .. . d o

.do . .. . .do. ....do.,.do.

Bil. dol., EOPBil. dol

Percent

1972-100...1967 = 100...Percent1967-100...

dododo

....do

....do

B2. Wages and Productivity

340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisoryworkers on private nonagricultural payrolls

341. Real average hourly earnings of production ornonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls

345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector. ..346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector .370. Output per hour, business sector358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector

C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment

441. Civilian labor force442. Civilian employment

37. Number of persons unemployed444. Number unemployed, males ?.O years and over445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age. ,..447. Number unemployed, full-time workers

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:451. Males 20 years and over3452. Females 20 years and over3453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age3

1977 = 100...

. . . .do. . .. . . .do . . . .

.. ,. do .. . . .do . .

. . do . ..

Millions.. . d o . . .

Thousands... . . .do. . .

dododo

Percent...do......do..

D. Government ActivitiesD l . Receipts and Expenditures

500. Federal Government surplus or def ic i t1 . . .501. Federal Government receipts502. Federal Government expenditures510. State and local government surplus or deficit3.511. State and local government receipts . . . .512. State and local government expenditures ...

D2. Defense Indicators

517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred525. Defense Department prime contract awards548. Mfrs.' new orders, defense products557. Industrial production, defense and space equipment...570. Employment, defense products industries564. Federal Government purchases for national defense .

A.r .b i l . do l . .do. .. .

. . . . do .do . . .do. . .do. .

Mil. dol..,

..do..

E. U.S. International TransactionsEl . Merchandise Trade

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments604. Exports of domestic agricultural products606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery612. General imports614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products..616. Imports of automobiles and parts

1977-100...ThousandsA.r., bil. dol...

Mil. doldo..,

-5451,034

9.098.62

12.2510.84

9.5113.1110.6410.79

376.01264.66

104.02

12.73

215.3298.4

0.3291 .7303.1315.7323.6312.3287.2284.6

155.3

94.9161.698.3

103.7

do...do..,do...

103.4

111 .55100.8310,7175,2573,6321,8299,075

78.553.153.5

-178.6641.1819.7

44.1478.243 4.1

20,63510,7876,773143.11,359200.5

16,7223,0113,536

21,5134,3 402,937

-3,0463,730

10.229.57

13,3711 .9910.1013.8212.0212.04

452.37299.73

115.04

13.85

223 .4311.1

0.3302.9310.3322.6331.0320,0294.1290.4

162.8

94 .8168.2

98.1107.0106.2

113.54105.008,5393,9323,1071 ,4997 ,057

78.353,753.9

-175 .8704.7880.5

52.9523 .6470.7

22,43712,9427,452157.91,444221 .5

18,1373,1463,875

27,1324,6893,787

- 3 , 8 8 54,607

9.278.97

12.6311.3710.1213.1111.2911 .80

452.37319.59

122.86

14.40

226.1315.4

0.3306.2309.8323.4327 .4320.7295.3290.7

162.4

94.5170.5

98.1108,0106.9

114.18105.95

8,2333,7383,0511,4446,837

78.353.953.8

-197 .8721 .9919.755,6

539.7484.0

25,46615,1577,569164.01,488231 .6

18,6493,1184,013

26 ,6 824,3143,716

- 6 2 11,426

8 .488.18

12.5711 .43

9.6413.2410,1010.54

476 .98326.98

126.00

14.90

229.1317.4

0.3308.7309,322316.2319.3298.1290.5

163.8

94.6172.5

98.5106.9106.0

115.16106.738,4263,7683,1551,5036,913

78.254.655.6

-165.1771 .4936.553 .7

545.6491 .9

21 ,07212,0997,336167.21,522233.9

18,5672,7414,126

28,1373,7504,425

-4721,287

7.927.52

11.8810.91

9.0412.38

9.9010.20

501 .08330.91

127 .37

15.54

230.6321 .2

0.3308.5309.4324.6305.4319.3300.1292,0

165.1

94.4173.898.3

107 .3106.3

115.18106.76

8,4173,7 833,1921,4426,797

78.154,654.3

-210.8734.6945.450.6

557 .9507.3

25 ,769NA

8,661171.81,550240.6

17,5442,2943,998

28,8025,0054,452

-5301,334

7.977.56

11.8510.96

9.0112.28

10,31

494.29333.29

128.09

15.62

321 .30.2

308.3309.9325.3305320.0299.7292.6

164.9

94,3

115.37106.968,4133,6513,2311,5316,797

78.154.555.8

-3001,205

7.537.01

11 .3310.368.69

11.89

-2531,107

7,7 .05

11 .2810.518.81

12.12

-230-129

-0.44-0.55-0.52-0.60-0.32-0.39

25,14014,6058,773171 .81,550

17,4142,0924,073

28,6855,2374,073

9.78

501 .08328.84

126.72

15.78

9.50

NA330.85

127.54

NA

-0.53

1.4-1.3

-1.1

0.16

322.30.2

308.5309.1324.7303,3318.8300.9291 .4

165.5

94.4

322.80.2

308.8309.0324.3301 .6317 .8300.9292.6

165.5

94.4

0.30.0.1

- 0 . 3-0 .2-0 .6- 0 . 4

0.4- 0 . 4

0.4

0.1

114,78106.37

8,4133,8913,1481,3746,741

77.954.651.8

115.31106.868,4513,7673,1251,5596,964

77.954.555.3

-0.5-0.60.6.6

-2.6-10.3-0.8

-0.20.1

-4.0

29,513NA

11,081173.41,560

NANA

9,133172.9

NA

17 .4NA

26.30.90.6

17,4382,1673,952

29,4254,8424,932

NANANANANANA

0.13.6

-3.02 .6

-7.521 .1

-47-98

0.350.04

-0.050.150.120.23

-0.28

NA0.6

0.6

NA

0.20.0.10.

-0.1-0.6-0.300.4

0.

0.

0.5-3.2-0.713.53.3

0.-0.13 .5

NANA

-17 .6-0.3

NA

NANANANANANA

-3,264-3,181

-0.79-0.79-0.060.06

-0.480.13

-1.19-1 .26

5.42.3

2.6

0.50

1,30.600.8

-0-0-3 .4-0.40.9

-0.1

0.9

0.11.20.4

-1.0-0.8

0,90.72.303.44.11 .1

-0.10.71 .8

32,76.91

-1.91.11.6

-17 .3-20.2-3.12.02.31 .0

-0.4-12.1

2.85.5

-13.1

-149-139

-0.56-0.66-0.69-0.52-0.60

860.200.34

-0

5.11 .2

1 .1

0.64

19.1

0-3.40.0.70.5

0.8

-0.20.8

-0.20.40.3

0.0.

-0.10.41 .2

-4.1-1 .7

-0.10.

-1.3

-45.7-4.81.0

-3.12 .33.1

22.3NA

18.12.81 .82.9

-5,5-16.3-3.12.4

33.50.6

9394

11911411611511711867

109

6672

101

95

310320320322330335331332333334

340

341345346370358

44144237

444445446447

451452453

500501502510511512

517525548557570564

602604606612614616



Series titleUnit

Basic data2

Annual averat

1982 19831st Q1984

2dQ1984

3dQ1984

4th Q1934

1st Q1985

2dQ

Percent change

3d Q4th Q1984

4th Qto

1st Q1985

1st Qto

2dQ1985

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.E2. Goods and Services Movements Except

Transfers Under Military Grants

667. Balance on goods and services3668. Exports of goods and services669. Imports of goods and services622. Balance on merchandise trade3618. Merchandise exports, adjusted620. Merchandise imports, adjusted651. Income on U.S. investment abroad652. Income on foreign investment in the United States.

A. National Income and ProductA l . GNP and Personal Income

200. Gross national product50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars

217. Per capita gross national product, in 1972 dollars213. Final sales in 1972 dollars224. Disposable personal income225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars...

A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures

230. Total231. Total in 1972 dollars232. Durable goods233. Durable goods in 1972 dollars.. .236. Nonduiable goods . .238. Nondurable goods in 1972 dollars.237. Services239. Services in 1972 dollars

A3. Gross Private Domestic investment

240. Total241. Total in 1972 dol lars.. .242. Fixed investment,243. Fixed investment in 1972 dollars245. Change in business inventories3

30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars3

A4. Government Purchasesof Goods and Services

260. Total261. Total in 1972 dollars262. Federal Government263. Federal Government in 1972 dollars266. State and local government267. State and local government in 1972 dollars..

A5. Foreign Trade

A6. National Income and Its Components

220. National income280. Compensation of employees...,.282. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj.,288. Net interest

A7. Saving

290. Gross saving '.295. Business saying292. Personal saving298. Government surplus or deficit3293. Personal saving rate3

Bil. do l .. ..do..,

do.do..do. ,

. . d o ., . . .do .

do.

A.r., bil. dol......do

A.r., dollars...A.r., bil. dol..,

...do

...doA.r., dollars..

A.r., bil. dol... do. . .

.do. . d o . . ....do.... 'do. ...". . . d o . . ... .do. ..

. .do.....do..

.do...do..

. . .do.

. .do...do. .dodo..

...do..

. . d o . .

250. Net exports of goods and services3255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars3252. Exports of goods and.services256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars253. Imports of goods and services257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars

...do...

...do...

..do.....do.....do..

..do.....do....do....do..

....do...

....do..,do...do..

Percent

0.0287.5187.49-9.1152.8061.9121 .1913.82

3069.31480.06,370

1490.42180.51058.34,555

1984.9963.3245.1140.5757 .5363.1982 .2459.8

414.9194.3441 .0204.7-26.1-10.4

650 .5292 .7258.9117 .0391.5175.7

19.029.7

348.4147 .6329.4118.0

2446.81864.2

111 .151 .5

159.1260.9

408.8388 .0136.0

-115.36.2

-7 .9883.4091 .38

-15.5050.1965.6919.5113.16

3304,81534.7

6,5431538.32340.11095.4

4,670

2155.91009.2

279.8157 .5801 .7376.3

1074.4475.4

47 1.6221.0485.1224.6- 1 3 . 5

- 3 . 6

685 .5291 .926 9.7116.2415.8175.7

-8.312 .6

336.2139.5344.4126 .9

2646.71984.9121 .758.3

225.2256.6

437 .2453 .6118.1-134.5

5.0

-22.5390.60

113.14-27 .0755 .0882 .1521 .9017 .12

3662.81639.36,926

1614,52576.81169.0

4,939

2341 .81062.4

318.8178.0856.93 9 3 . 5

1166.1490.8

637 .82 8 9 . 95 7 9 . 62 6 5 . 1

5 8 . 22 4 . 8

747 .4302 .1295.4122.5452.0179.6

-64.2-15.0364.3146.0428.5161 .1

2959.92173.2154.462.5

285 .7284.1

551 .8518.6156.1

-122.96.1

-16.8590 .76107 .62-25.5753.7 579.3223 .5015.27

3553.31610.96,829

1579.32502.21147.64,865

2276.51044.1310,9173 .7841 .33 87 .11124.4483 .4

623.8285.5550.0253.973.831.6

704.4289.5267 .6112.243 6.8177.3

-51.5-8.3

358.9144.9410 .4153.2

2873.52113.4154,961 .0

277 .4266 .8

543 .9498.8152.5-107 .4

6.1

-22 .2689.00

111 .26-25.6554.6880.3320.9017 .28

3644.71638.86,933

1618.52554,31165.3

4,930

2332.71064.2

320 .7178.6858.3396.6

1153.7488.9

627 .02 8 3 . 9576 . 4263 .7

50.620 .3

743 .7302.1296 .4123.2447 .4178.9

-58.7-11.4362.4144.7421 .1156.2

2944.82159.2149.862.0

291 .1282.8

551 .0515.3144,8-109.2

5.7

-29.6291 .12120,75-32.5155.5388.0421 .7718.51

3694.61645.26,9 43

1614.62606 .41176 .54,965

2361 .41065.9317 .2177 .0861 .4395.5

1182.8493 .5

662.8300.2591 .0269.671.830.6

761 .0306.1302.0125.0458.9181 .1

-90.6-27 .0368.6147 .4459.3174.4

2984.92191 .9153.763,0

2 82.8293 .5

556 .4525.3164.1-133 .0

6.3

-21 .3891 ,54

112.92-24.5656 .3680,9121.4417,44

3758.71662.46,998

1645.62644.51186 .74,996

2396.51075.4326.3182.9866.5395.01203.8497 ,5

637.8289.9601 ,1273 .136.616.8

7 80.5310.5315.7129.6464.8180.9

-56 .0-13 .4367 .2147 .1423.216 0.5

3036.32228.1159.164.1

291 .6293 .4

556.0535.2163 .0-142.2

6.2

-26 .8289.43116.25-29.5655.6985.2519,1516.53

3810 .61663 .56,989

1644.42654.81181 .94,965

2446 .51089.1334.8187 .0877 .3398.61234.4503.5

646 .8292.1606.1273 .040.719.1

791.9310 .7319.9129.8472.0180.9

-74.5-28,4360.7143 .743 5.2172.1

3076 .52272.7159.864.8

292.3287 .0

550.7543 .5118.6

-111 .44.5

NANANA

-33.4252.9186.32

NANA

3855.11671 .67,009

1663 .32727 .51205.05,053

2497 .51103 .4340.0190.3892.5403 .6

1265.1509.4

640.9288.1622.7279.818,18,3

810 .1313 .5323.8129.8486 .3183 .7

-93 .4-33 .3349.4138.8442.8172.1

3105.72305.2161.166.8

297 .3115.U

531 .5555.6136,1

-160.25 .0

8.240.5

-6.57.951.5

-8.1-1.5-5.

1 .71.00.81 .91 .50.90.6

1 .50.92.93.30.6

-0.11.80.8

-3-3.41.71.3

-35.2-13.8

2 .61.44.53.71 .3

-0.1

34.613 .6-0.4-0.2-7.9-8.0

1 .71 .73.51 .73.10.

-0.11 .9

-0.7-9.2-0.1

-5.44-2.32.9

-5.00-1.25.4

-10.7-5.2

1.40,1-0.1-0.10.4-0.4-0.6

2.11.32.62.21 .20.92.51 .2

1.40.80.80.4.12.3

1.50.11.30.21 .50.

-18.5-15.0 1-2 .32.87.2

1.32.00.41 .10.2

-2.2

-1.01.6

-27 .230.8-1 .7

NANANA

-3.86-5.01.3NANA

1.20.50.31 .12.72.01.8

2 .11 .31 .61.81 .71.32.51 .2

-0.9-1 .42 .72.5

-22.6-10.8

2.30.91 .20.3.01.5

-18.9-4.9-3 .1-3 .41.70.

0.91.40.83.11 .7

-4.0

-3.52.2

14.8-48

0.5

667668669622618620651652

20050

217213224225227

230231232233236238237239

24024124224324530

260261262263266267

250255252256253257

220280282284286288

290295292298293

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by , that appear to contain no seasonalmovement. Series indicated by an asterisk H are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are incurrent dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources ofSeries" at the bach of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumptionadjustment.

1 The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all

turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.

2 For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual

figures published by the source agencies are used if available.J Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.

'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs ofthe changes are reversed.

5 End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the

period.6 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of

the span.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS

A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart A l . Composite Indexes

Nov. Oct.P T

July May Aug. Apr. Apr. Feb.P T P T P T

Dec, Nov.P T

Nov. Mar.P T

910. Index of twelve leading indicators -S(series 1,5,8,12,19,20, ?9.3?.. 36.99. ^06. I IP _^

J_.f J '4-

Jan July July Nov.P T P T

I Imtex: 196X^1001

r m

180-

170-

160-

150-

140-

130-

120-

110-

100-

9 0 -

170-

160-150-

140-

130-

120-

110-

I

920. Index of tour roughly coincident indicators "i r(series 41,47, 51, 57) ' ^

/ m+i

930. index of six lagging indicators(series 62, 77, 91,95,101,109)

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985

NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads {-) and tags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

10 AUGUST 1985Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTSContinued

Chart A l . Composite IndexesContinued

Nov. Oct.P T

July MayP T

Aug. Apr. Apr. Feb.P T P T

Dec, Nov.P T

Nov. Mar.P T

Jan. July July Nov.P T P T

Capital investment commitments i-15

120-

110-

100-

90 JJE-f

Invefitbpljinvestment and purchasing (series'% M, 36,99) 3 3

916> PrdfitabHity ($eries 19T 26,80)

917j| Money M financial Kows (series 104,1

940. R ^ coincident index to lagging jmtex

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985NOTE Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

ItCII AUGUST 1985 11Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTSContinued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components

Nov. Oct.P T

July MayP T

Aug. Apr. Apr. Feb.P T P T

Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar.P T P T

1. Average weekly hours of production or ^supervisory workers, manufacturing (hpurs)

2; Net business formation (index: 1967=^100)

Jan. July July Nov.P I P 1

WPPMV initial f.laims for nngmnkwment insurance

State programs (thousandsinverted scale) [

8. Manufacture^' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods^and matenaf $ I industries (bil. dol.) \ \ . \ x

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower

CYCLICAL


Chart A2. Leading Index ComponentsContinued

Nov. Oct.P T

July MayP T

Aug. Apr. Apr. Feb.F T P T

Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar.P T P T

Jan. July July Mov.P T P T

29. New private housing units authorized by localhuildin? oermits YindcYt 1967

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. dot.)

#

99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)L l l

106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (bif. dol.)

111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding(ann. rate, percent) |L,L tL|

1948 49 50 51 52 93 54 55 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 71, and 72.

BCD AUGUST 1985 13Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS


Chart A3. Coincident Index Components

Nov. Oct.P T


41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (mikms)CXX

51. Personal income less transfer payments in1972 dollars (arm. rate, bii. dol.)

47. Industrial production (index;

57, Manufacturing and trade sates in1972 dollars (bH. do}.)

1948 49 50 91 52 53 54 53 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

14 AUGUST 1985 BCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS


Chart A4. Lagging Index Components


I I 91J Av^agcl duration; of unemptoyirieiit

Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories7>-rfnltars

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturingasjfercent of trend (percent) [ 7 ~ j T u

109. Average prime rate charged by banks

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstandingy m 1972 Mlars (bi dpi.)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

B C D AUGUST 1985

i t r i o . : ;; ' : :::: :;. *

82 83 8419S1

15Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORSB I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment

Apr. Feb.P T

Dec.P

Nov.T

Nov.P

Mar.T

Jan, JulyP T

JulyP

NovI

[Marginal Employment Adjustments 1

1. Average! weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,manufacturing (hours)

21 . Average weekly ovftimefioursof productionmanufacturing (hou;rs) |{_CL

or nonsupervisory workers,

1 V

5. Average weekly initial claims for unempkiyment insurance,State programs (thousandsinverted sealej)

60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number

200 -1

3 0 0 -

4 0 0 -

500-

700 J

of persons unemployed (ratio) rj- jjj

Help-wanted advertising in newspapersj|(index

1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .

16 AUGUST 1985 ItCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESSContinued

Chart Bl. Employment and UnemploymentContinued

Apr. Feb.P T

: ' .If '

Dec. Nov.P T

Nov. Mar.P T


IfComi rehensive Employment 1

48. Employee hours in qpnagricuftur;(aim. rate rbil. hours)

establishments

190"

180-

170-

160-

150-

140-

105-

100-

9 5 -

9 0 -

8 5 -

8 0 -

7 5 -

70H

65 J

2 8 -

27-

26-

25-

24-

2 3 -

2 2 -

21-

20-

60 -

958-

57-

5S

5 5 -

5 4 -

42. Persons engag^j in nonagrjcultural actifties jpiions)

z_Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)

Irnni

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls,industries

goods-producing.

\ /

A/K

90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of wortdng age (percent)\ I U.Lg.U ]

\ r

1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 83 84 85 19S6

ItCII AUGUST 1985 17Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL IN

BCD_081985

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