BCD_041982

BUSINESSCONDITIONSDIGESTAPRIL 1982

U.S. DEPARTMENTOF COMMERCE

BUREAU OFECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEMalcolm Baldrige, Secretary

Robert G. Dederick, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSISGeorge Jaszi, Director

Allan H. Young, Deputy DirectorCharles A. Waite, Acting Associate Director for

National Analysis and ProjectionsFeliks Tamm, Editor

This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of EconomicAnalysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are

Barry A. BeckmanTechnical supervision and reviewBrian D. KajuttiComposite indexesMorton SomerSeasonal adjustmentsBetty F. TunstallData collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)

The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefullyacknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sourcesat the back of this report.

This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee con-sisting of the following persons:

Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, Bureau of Industrial Economics, U.S. Department ofCommerce

John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the TreasuryNorman Frumkin, Office of Management and BudgetRonald E. Kutscher, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of LaborDavid C. Munro, Council of Economic AdvisersJ. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemCharles A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORTBUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) providesa monthly look at many of the economic timeseries found most useful by business analystsand forecasters.

The original BCD, which began publicationin 1961 under the title Business Cycle Develop-ments, emphasized the cyclical indicators ap-proach to the analysis of business conditionsand prospects. The report's contents were basedlargely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,and lagging indicators maintained by theNational Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase itsusefulness to analysts using other approaches tobusiness conditions analysis. Principal additionsto the report were series from the national in-come and product accounts and series based onsurveys of businessmen's and consumers' an-ticipations and intentions. The composite in-dexes were added at that time, and the report'spresent title was adopted.

The dominant feature of the current BCD isthe cyclical indicators section, in which eachbusiness cycle indicator is assigned a three-waytiming classification according to its behavior atpeaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section issupplemented by a section containing other im-portant economic measures. The method ofpresentation is explained in the introductory textwhich begins on page 1.

Most of the data contained in this reportalso are published by their source agencies. Aseries finding guide and a complete list of seriestitles and sources can be found at the back of thereport.Cyclical Indicators are economic time serieswhich have been singled out as leaders, coin-ciders, or laggers based on their general confor-mity to cyclical movements in aggregateeconomic activity. In this report, cyclical in-dicators are classified both by economic processand by their average timing at business cyclepeaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaksand troughs combined. These indicators havebeen selected primarily on the basis of theircyclical behavior, but they also have provenuseful in forecasting, measuring, and in-terpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregateeconomic activity.Other Economic Measures provide additional in-formation for the evaluation of current businessconditions and prospects. They include selectedcomponents of the national income and productaccounts; measures of prices, wages, andproductivity; measures of the labor force,employment, and unemployment; economicdata on Federal, State, and local government ac-tivities; measures of U.S. international transac-tions; and selected economic comparisons withmajor foreign countries.

Annual subscription price: $60 domestic, $75foreign. Single copy price: $5.50 domestic,$6.90 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are availableupon request. Address all correspondence

concerning subscriptions to the Superintendentof Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payableto the Superintendent of Documents.


BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue iii

Seasonal Adjustments 1MCD Moving Averages 1Reference Turning Dates 1Part I. Cyclical Indicators 1Part II. Other Important Economic Measures 4How To Read Charts 5How To Locate a Series 5Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 6

APRIL 1 9 8 2Data Through MarchVolume 22, Number 4

" ' * ' (''>' >:~ ':[ ' C h a r t T a b l eAl Composite Indexes 10 60A2 Leading Index Components 12 A3 Coincident Index Components 14 A4 Lagging Index Components 15

Bl Employment and Unemployment 16 61B2 Production and Income 19 63B3 Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries 21 64B4 Fixed Capital Investment 23 65B5 Inventories and Inventory Investment 26 68B6 Prices, Costs, and Profits 28 69B7 Money and Credit 31 71

Cl Diffusion Indexes 36 74C2 Selected Diffusion Index Components 77C3 Rates of Change 39

The Secretary of Commerce has determined necessary in the transaction of the publicthat the publication of this periodical is business required by law of this Department.


BCIIPART II.OTHER IMPORTANTECONOMIC MEASURES

NATIONAL INCOMEAND PRODUCT Chart TableGNP and Personal Income 40 80Personal Consumption Expenditures 41 80Gross Private Domestic Investment 42 81Government Purchases of Goods and Services 43 81Foreign Trade 44 82National Income and Its Components 45 82Saving 46 82Shares of GNP and National Income 47 83

PRICES, WAGES,AND PRODUCTIVITYPrice Movements 48 84Wages and Productivity 49 87

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,AND UNEMPLOYMENTCivilian Labor Force and Major Components 51 89

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIESReceipts and Expenditures 52 90Defense Indicators 53 90

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSMerchandise Trade 56 92Goods and Services Movements 57 93

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONSIndustrial Production 58 94Consumer Prices 59 95Stock Prices 59 96

[Ml

PART III. APPENDIXESA. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)

QCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)B. Current Adjustment FactorsC. Historical Data for Selected SeriesD. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical IndexSeries Finding Guide")E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (February 1982 issue)F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (April 1981 issue)G. Experimental Data and AnalysesAlphabetical IndexSeries Finding GuideTitles and Sources of Series

9798

106110114


Readers are invited to submit comments andsuggestions concerning this publication.Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, StatisticalIndicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230

NEW FEATURESAND CHANGESFOR THIS ISSUE

Changes in this issue are as follows:

1. The series on sales of retail stores (series 54 and59) have been revised for the period 1967 to date to reflectthe following revisions by the source agency:

A. Adjustment to new benchmark levels for 1978 to dateutilizing the results of the 1977 Census of RetailTrade and the 1980 Annual Retail Trade Survey.

B. The shifting of all catalog desk sales from the mailorder category to the department store category forthe period 1967 to date.

C. A new seasonal adjustment for the period 1967 todate.

Further information concerning these revisions may beobtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of theCensus, Business Division (series 54), and Bureau of EconomicAnalysis, Statistical Indicators Division (series 59).

2. The series on manufacturing and trade sales andinventories (series 31, 56, 57, 70, 71, and 77) have beenrevised beginning with December 1981 based on the sourceagency's revised data for retailers' and merchant wholesalers'sales and inventories. The revision of the retail sales seg-ment of these series is discussed in item 1, above. Revisionsof the other segments are as follows:

A. Retail inventories data are revised (1) for theperiod 1977 through 1981 to reflect corrected datareported to the Census Bureau, (2) for the period1980 through 1981 on the basis of data from the 1980Retail Trade Survey, and (3) for the period 1977 todate to reflect the application of new seasonal ad-justment factors.

(Continued on page iv.)

The May issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled forrelease on June 2.

A limited number ofchanges are made fromtime to time to in-corporate recent find-ings of economicresearch, newly avail-able time series, andrevisions made bysource agencies inconcept, composition,comparability, coverage,seasonal adjustmentmethods, benchmarkdata, etc. Changes mayresult in revisions ofdata, additions ordeletions of series,changes in placement ofseries in relation toother series, changesin composition ofindexes, etc.

inDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

B. Wholesale sales and inventories data are revised to reflect (1) annualestimates from the 1978, 1979, and 1980 Annual Trade Surveys for theperiod 1978 through 1980, (2) corrected data for 1972, and (3) theapplication of new seasonal adjustment factors for the period 1978 todate.

Data for total manufacturing and trade sales and inventories, however, in-corporate these revisions for the period December 1981 to date only. Data forthe earlier period will be released after revised data on manufacturers1 ship-ments and inventories become available later this year. Revised data for theconstant-dollar (1972) inventory-sales ratios shown in appendix G also will beavailable later this year.

Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from theU.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Business Division (series 31,56, and 71), and Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division(series 57, 70, and 77).

3. Series 36 (change in inventories on hand and on order) reflects therevisions in retailers' and merchant wholesalers' inventories discussed above(item 2) for the period December 1981 to date.

Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from theU.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indica-tors Division.

4. Series 33 (net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutionsand life insurance companies) has been revised for the period 1981 to date.This revision reflects the source agency's annual updating of statistics onmortgage debt held by weekly reporting large member banks of the Federal Re-serve System.

Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from theBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research andStatistics, Banking Section.

5. The series on total merchandise exports and imports (series 602 and612) have been revised as follows:

A. Series 602 reflects the inclusion of exports from the U.S. VirginIslands to foreign countries for the period 1974 through 1979. Theseexports already were included in data for 1980 to date.

B. Series 612 reflects (1) the inclusion of imports to the U.S. VirginIslands from foreign countries for the period 1974 through 1980 and(2) the substitution of customs value for f.a.s. (free alongsideship) value for the period 1974 through 1979.

Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from theU.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Foreign Trade Division.

6. Appendix C contains historical data for series 441, 442, 444-448,451-453, 525, 543, 732, 733, and 735-738.

7. Appendix G contains recession comparisons for series 21, 29, 45, 47,48, 92, 910, and 920.

IV


METHOD OF PRESENTATION

This report is organized into two major parts.Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 timeseries which have been found to conform well tobroad fluctuations in comprehensive measures ofeconomic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these areindividual indicators, the rest are related analyticalmeasures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,and rates of change. Part II, Other ImportantEconomic Measures, covers over 140 series whichare valuable to business analysts and forecastersbut which do not conform well enough to businesscycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are afew exceptions: Four series which are included inpart I are also shown in part II to complete thesystematic presentation of certain sets of data,such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largestsection of part II consists of quarterly series fromthe national income and product accounts; othersections relate to prices, labor force, governmentand defense-related activities, and internationaltransactions and comparisons.

The two parts are further divided into sections(see table of contents), and each of these sectionsis described briefly in this introduction. Data areshown both in charts and in tables. Most chartsbegin with 1956, but those for the compositeindexes and their components (part I, section A)begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panelformat which covers only the period since 1971.Except for section F in part II, charts containshading which indicates periods of recession ingeneral business activity. The tables contain datafor only the last few years. The historical data forthe various time series are contained in the 1977Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.

In addition to the charts and tables describedabove, each issue contains a summary table whichshows the current behavior of many of the series.Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,measures of variability, specific cycle turningdates, cyclical comparison charts, and otherinformation of analytical interest. An index appearsat the back of each issue. It should be noted thatthe series numbers used are for identificationpurposes only and do not reflect preciserelationships or order. However, all seriesconsidered as cyclical indicators are numbered inthe range 1 to 199.

Seasonal AdjustmentsAdjustments for average seasonal fluctuations

are often necessary to bring out the underlyingtrends of time series. Such adjustments allow forthe effects of repetitive intrayear variationsresulting primarily from normal differences inweather conditions and from various institutionalarrangements. Variations attributable to holidaysare usually accounted for by the seasonaladjustment process; however, a separate holiday

adjustment is occasionally required for holidayswith variable dates, such as Easter. An additionaladjustment is sometimes necessary for serieswhich contain considerable variation due to thenumber of working or trading days in each month.As used in this report, the term "seasonaladjustment" includes trading-day and holidayadjustments where they have been made.

Most of the series in this report are presented inseasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, theseare the official figures released by the sourceagencies. However, for the special purposes of thisreport, a number of series not ordinarily publishedin seasonally adjusted form are shown here on aseasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages

Month-to-month changes in a series are oftendominated by erratic movements. MCD (months forcyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appro-priate span over which to observe cyclicalmovements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)It is the smallest span of months for which theaverage change in the cyclical factor is greater thanthat in the irregular factor. The more erratic aseries is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages ofthe period equal to MCD) tend to have about thesame degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5will show its cyclical movements about as clearlyas the seasonally adjusted data for a series with anMCD of 1.

The charts in this report generally includecentered MCD moving averages for those serieswith an MCD greater than 4. The seasonallyadjusted data are also plotted to indicate theirvariation about the moving averages and to provideobservations for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates

The historical business cycle turning dates usedin this report are those designated by the NationalBureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). Theymark the approximate dates when, according toNBER, aggregate economic activity reached itscyclical high or low levels. As a matter of generalpractice, neither new reference turning dates northe shading for recessions will be entered on thecharts until after both the new reference peak andthe new reference trough bounding the shaded areahave been designated.

The historical reference turning dates are subjectto periodic review by NBER and on occasion arechanged as a result of revisions in importanteconomic time series. The dates shown in thispublication for the 1948-1970 time period are thosedetermined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER hasdesignated turning points for the 1973-1975 reces-sion and the 1980 recession.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Business cycles have been defined as sequencesof expansion and contraction in various economicprocesses that show up as major fluctuations in ag-gregate economic activitythat is, in com-prehensive measures of production, employment,income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,business cycles of historical experience have beendefinitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly induration and intensity, reflecting changes ineconomic systems, conditions, policies, andoutside disturbances.

One of the techniques developed in businesscycle research and widely used as a tool for analyz-ing current economic conditions and prospects isthe cyclical indicators approach. This approachidentifies certain economic time series as tendingto lead, coincide with or lag behind the broadmovements in aggregate economic activity. Suchindicators have been selected and analyzed byNBER in a series of studies published between1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a newcomprehensive review of cyclical indicators wascarried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER researchstaff. The present format and content of part I ofBCD are based on the results of that study.

Section A. Composite Indexes andTheir Components

All cyclical indicators have been evaluated ac-cording to six major characteristics: Economicsignificance, statistical adequacy, consistency oftiming at business cycle peaks and troughs,conformity to business expansions andcontractions, smoothness, and prompt availability(currency). A formal, detailed weighting schemewas developed and used to assess each series by allof the above criteria. (See articles in the May andNovember 1975 issues of BCD.) The resultingscores relate to cyclical behavior of the seriesduring the period 1947-70. This analysis produceda new list of indicators classified by economicprocess and typical timing at business cycle peaksand troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text belowrelating to section B.)

This information, particularly the scores relatingto consistency of timing, served as a basis for theselection of series to be included in the compositeindexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoringseries from many different economic-processgroups and combine those with similar timingbehavior, using their overall performance scores asweights. Because they use series of historicallytested usefulness and given timing characteristics(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),with diversified economic coverage and a minimumof duplication, composite indexes give morereliable signals over time than do any of theindividual indicators. Furthermore, much of the


Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical TimingA. Tinning at Business Cycle Peaks

Nv Economic\Process

>^Cyclical \Timing >v

LEADING (L)INDICATORS(62 series)

ROUGHLYCOINCIDENT(C)INDICATORS(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)INDICATORS(18 series)

TIMINGUNCLASSIFIED(U)(8 series)

EMPLOYMENTA N DUNEMPLOY-MENT(18 series)

Marginalemploymentadjustments(6 series)

Job vacancies(2 series)Comprehensiveemployment(1 series)

Comprehensiveunemployment(3 series)

Comprehensiveemployment(1 series)

Duration ofunemployment(2 series)


I I .PRODUCTIONA N DINCOME(10 series)

Capacityutilization(2 series)

Comprehensiveoutput andreal income(4 series)

industrialproduction(4 series)

I I I .CONSUMPTION,TRADE,ORDERS, ANDDELIVERIES(13 series)

New andunfilled ordersand deliveries(6 series)

Consumption(2 series)

Consumptionand trade(4 series)

Trade(1 series)

I V .FIXEDCAPITALINVESTMENT(18 series)

Formation ofbusinessenterprises(2 series)

Businessinvestmentcommitments(5 series)

Residentialconstruction(3 series)

Backlog ofinvestmentcommitments(1 series)

BusinessInvestmentexpenditures(5 series)

Businessinvestmentexpenditures(1 series)


V .INVENTORIESA N DINVENTORYINVESTMENT(9 series)

Inventoryinvestment(4 series)

Inventories onhand and onorder(1 series)


V I .PRICES, COSTS,AND PROFITS(17 series)

Stock prices(1 series)

Commodityprices^Timing x^

LEADING (L)INDICATORS

l*r/ seriesj

ROUGHLYCOINCIDENT(C)INDICATORS(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)INDICATORS(40 series)

TIMINGUNCLASSIFIED(U)(1 series)

1.EMPLOYMENTA N DUNEMPLOY-MENT(18 series)





Job vacancies(2 series)Comprehensive

employment(1 series)Com pre hen si ve

and durationofunemployment(5 series)

I I .PRODUCTIONA N DINCOME(10 series)

Industrialproduction(1 series)

Comprehensiveoutput andreal income(4 series)

Industrialproduction(3 series)

Capacityutilization(2 series)

III.CONSUMPTION,TRADE,ORDERS, ANDDELIVERIES(13 series)

New and unfilledorders anddeliveries(5 series)



Unfilled orders(1 series)

I V .FIXEDCAPITALINVESTMENT(18 series)

Formation ofbusinessenterprises(2 series)


Residentialconstruction(3 series)



Businessinvestmentexpenditures(6 series)

V .INVENTORIESA N DINVENTORYINVESTMENT(9 series)

Inventoryinvestment(4 series)


V I .PRICES, COSTS,AND PROFITS(17 series)

Stock prices(1 series)

Commodityprices(2 series)

Profits andprofit margins(6 series)

Cash flows(2 series)

Profits(2 series)

Unit labor costsand labor share(4 series)

VI I .MONEYAND CREDIT(26 series)

Money flows(2 series)

Real moneysupply(2 series)

Credit flows(4 series)Credit

difficulties(2 series)

Money flow(1 series)

Velocity ofmoney(1 series)

Velocity ofmoney(1 series)

Bank reserves(1 series)

Interest rates(8 series)Outstanding debt(3 series)

Bank reserves(1 series)


independent measurement error and other "noise"in the included series are smoothed out in theindex as a whole. The indexes include only monthlyseries that are acceptable in terms of relativelyprompt availability and reasonable accuracy.

The main composite indexes are distinguished bytheir cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index ofleading indicators, series which historically reachedtheir cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than thecorresponding business cycle turns. There is anindex of roughly coincident indicators, consistingof series which historically reached their turningpoints at about the same time as the generaleconomy, and an index of lagging indicators, whichincludes series that typically reached their peaksand troughs later than the corresponding businesscycle turns.

The leading index contains series with long aswell as short leads, but each series leads on theaverage over time and shows a frequency of leadsat the individual turns exceeding that attributableto chance, given the historical distribution ofcyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies tothe components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,leads were generally more frequent and longer atpeaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lagswere generally more frequent and longer at troughsthan at peaks. The adopted system of scoring andclassifying the indicators takes into account thesewel l -establ ished di f ferences in t iming.Consequently, rough coincidences include shortleads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exactcoincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range isfrom -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads andplus denotes lags in months.)

For purposes of constructing a composite index,each component series is standardized: The month-to-month percent changes in a given series aredivided by the long-run average (without regard tosign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatileseries are prevented from dominating the index.The coincident index is calculated so that its long-term trend (since 1948) equals the average of thetrends of its four components. This trend, which issimilar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can beviewed as a linear approximation to the secularmovement (at an average growth rate) in aggregateeconomic activity. The indexes of leading and lag-ging indicators have been adjusted so that boththeir trends and their average month-to-monthpercent changes (without regard to sign) are ap-proximately equal to those of the coincident index.(For a more detailed description of the method ofconstructing the composite indexes, see the 1977Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)

In addition to these principal composite indexes,differentiated according to cyclical timing, thereare five indexes based on leading indicators whichhave been grouped by economic process. Takentogether, these additional indexes include all 12component series of the overall leading index, plusa few related series. Also shown in this section isthe ratio of the index of roughly coincident

indicators to the index of lagging indicators, aseries known to have a useful pattern of earlycyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts ofthe composite indexes show the length, in months,of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the referenceturning dates covered.

The next set of data consists of series includedin the principal composite indexes. These are the12 components of the leading index, the 4components of the coincident index, and the 6components of the lagging index. Following the titleof each series, its typical timing is identified bythree letter symbols in a small box. The first ofthese letters refers to the timing of the givenindicator at business cycle peaks, the second to itstiming at business cycle troughs, and the third toits timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughscombined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" atendency to roughly coincide with the businesscycle turns (as represented by the NBER-designated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendencyto lag. Since these series have been selected for theconsistency of their timing at both peaks andtroughs, all components of the leading index aredenoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincidentindex "C,C,C," and all components of the laggingindex "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered thatthese classifications are based on limited evidence,namely the performance of the indicators duringthe business cycles of the 1948-70 period, whichincluded five peaks and five troughs. While thetiming classifications are expected to agree withthe patterns prevailing in the near future, they willnot necessarily hold invariably in every instance.The timing of the series in the post-1970 period canbe determined by inspection of the charts, where the1973-1975 recession and the 1980 recession areshaded according to the dates of the NBER referencecycle chronology.

Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process

This section covers 111 individual time series,including the 22 indicators used in theconstruction of the composite indexes. The peakand trough timing classifications are shown on thecharts in the same manner as described above, butthis section includes series with different timing atpeaks and at troughs, as well as series where thetiming is not sufficiently consistent to be classifiedas either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilisticmeasures and scoring criteria adopted. Such seriesare labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing atturning points of the given type. Eight series areunclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite butdifferent timing at peaks and at troughs). No seriesthat is classified as U both at peaks and at troughsis included in the list of cyclical indicators.

The classification scheme which groups theindicators of this section by economic process andcyclical timing is summarized in the twotabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A isbased on the observed behavior of the series at fivebusiness cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,

August '57, April '60, and December '69); cross-classification B, on their behavior at five businesscycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,February '61, and November 7 0 ) . Each tabulationdistinguishes seven major economic processes andfour types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cellsidentify subgroups of the given economic processwith the given timing characteristic. The number ofseries in each such group is given in parenthesesfollowing the title. Complete information on howindividual indicators are classified by timing atpeaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selectedmeasures and scores, is provided in the 1977Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.

Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change

Many series in this report are aggregatescompiled from numerous components. How theindividual components of an aggregate move over agiven timespan is summarized by a diffusion indexwhich indicates the percentage of components thatare rising (with half of the unchanged componentsconsidered rising). Cyclical changes in thesediffusion indexes tend to lead those of thecorresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexesare highly erratic, they are computed from changesmeasured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.Longer spans help to highlight the trends underly-ing the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexesare shown for the component series included ineach of the three composite indexes and for thecomponents of some of the aggregate series shownin section B.

Diffusion measures can be derived not only fromactual data but also from surveys of anticipationsor intentions. Indexes based on responses ofbusiness executives about their plans andexpectations for several operating variables arepresented, along with the corresponding indexesbased on actual data, as the last set of diffusionseries.

This section also records rates of change for thethree composite indexes (leading, coincident, andlagging) and for four indicators of aggregateeconomic activity: GNP in constant dollars(quarterly), industrial production, employee hoursin nonagricultural establishments, and personalincome less transfers in constant dollars. Rates ofchange are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for1-quarter spans.

Although movements in diffusion indexes and inrates of change for the same aggregates aregenerally positively correlated, these two measurespresent information about two related but distinctaspects of economic change. Diffusion indexesmeasure the prevailing direction or scope ofchange, while rates of change measure the degreeas well as the overall direction. As is the case fordiffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the ratesof change tend to lead those of the correspondingindexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to leadat the business cycle turns as well.


Part I I . OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMICMEASURES

This part is divided into six sections which covera wide range of quarterly and monthly time seriesmeasuring various aspects of economic activity.Some of these series are very comprehensive,pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, othershave to do with particular sectors or markets, andstill others relate to U.S. international transactionsor to selected foreign countries. The representedvariables include incomes, outputs, andexpenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;labor resources; government receipts,expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex-ports and imports; and selected indicators for a fewkey foreign countries.

Section A. National Income and Product

The national income and product accounts,compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts andfinal expenditures for the personal, business,foreign, and government sectors of the economy.

Section Al shows the gross national product,final sales, and personal and disposable personalincome. The four major components of the grossnational product-persona I consumptionexpenditures, gross private domestic investment,government purchases of goods and services, andnet exports of goods and servicesare presented insections A2 through A5. Most of the series insection A are presented in current as well asconstant dollars. There are also a few per capitaseries. The national income and product accounts,briefly defined below, are described more fully inthe Survey of Current Business, Part I,January 1976.

Gross national product (GNP) is the marketvalue of final goods and services produced by thelabor and property supplied by residents of theUnited States, before deduction of allowances forthe consumption of fixed capital goods. It is themost comprehensive measure of aggregateeconomic output. Final sales is GNP less change inbusiness inventories.

Personal income is the income received bypersons (individuals, owners of unincorporatedbusinesses, nonprofit institutions, private trustfunds, and private noninsured welfare funds) fromall sources. It is the sum of wage and salarydisbursements, other labor income, proprietors'income, rental income of persons, dividends,personal interest income, and transfer payments,less personal contributions for social insurance.

Disposable personal income is the personalincome available for spending or saving. It consistsof personal income less personal taxes and nontaxpayments to government.

Personal consumption expenditures (A2) isgoods and services purchased by individuals,operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, andthe value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,and financial services received in kind by in-dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in-cluded.

Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixedcapital goods purchased by private business andnonprofit institutions and the value of the changein the physical volume of inventories held byprivate business. The former include all privatepurchases of dwellings, whether purchased fortenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of usedgoods are also included.

Government purchases of goods and services(A4) is the compensation of government employeesand purchases from business and from abroad. Itexcludes transfer payments, interest paid bygovernment, and subsidies. It includes grossinvestment by government enterprises but excludestheir current outlays. It includes net purchases ofused goods and excludes sales and purchases ofland and financial assets.

Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exportsless imports of goods and services. Exports are partof the national production; imports are not, but areincluded in the components of GNP and aretherefore deducted. More detail on U.S.international transactions is provided in section E.

National income (A6) is the incomes thatoriginate in the production of goods and servicesattributable to labor and property supplied byresidents of the United States. Thus, it measuresthe factor costs of the goods and services pro-duced. It consists of the compensation ofemployees, proprietors' income, rental income ofpersons, corporate profits, and net interest.

Saving (A7) is the difference between incomeand expenditures during an accounting period.Total gross saving includes personal saving,business saving (mainly undistributed corporateprofits and capital consumption allowances), andgovernment surplus or deficit.

Shares of GNP and national income (A8).Themajor expenditure components of GNP(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed aspercentages of GNP, and the major incomecomponents of national income (compensation ofemployees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed aspercentages of national income.

Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity

The important data on price movements includethe monthly consumer and producer price indexesand their major components. Based largely onthese series are the quarterly price indexes fromthe national income and product accounts, notablythe GNP implicit price deflator (with weightsreflecting the changing proportions of differentexpenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed-weighted price index for the gross business prod-uct. Data on both levels and percent changes arepresented for the period since 1971.

The group of series on wages and productivityconsists of data on average hourly earnings andaverage hourly compensation (including earningsand other benefits) in current and constant dollars,output per hour of work in the business sector, andrates of change for most of these measures.

Section C. Labor Force, Employment, andUnemployment

This section contains measures of the civilianlabor force and its major components: Totalnumbers of employed and unemployed persons.The number of unemployed is subdivided intoselected categories defined by sex, age, and classof worker. Also included are data on participationrates for a few principal segments of the laborforce.

Section D. Government Activities

Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (sur-plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:(1) Federal Government and (2) State and localgovernment. Also shown is a selection of seriesfrom the discontinued Defense Indicators.These series measure defense activities whichinfluence short-term changes in the nationaleconomy. Included are series relating toobligations, contracts, orders, production,shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.These series are grouped according to the time atwhich the activities they measure occur in thedefense order-production-delivery process. Seriesmeasuring activities which usually precede pro-duction, such as contract awards and new orders,are classified as "advance measures of defenseactivity." Series measuring activities which tend tocoincide with production, such as employment, andactivities which usually follow production, such asshipments, are classified as "intermediate and finalmeasures of defense activity."

Section E. U.S. International Transactions

This group includes monthly series on exports(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus afew selected components of these aggregates. Alsoshown are the balances between receipts andexpenditures for goods and services, merchandise,and investment income.

Section F. International Comparisons

This section is designed to facilitate a quickreview of basic economic conditions in six of thenations with which we have important traderelationships. The U.S. business cycle shading hasbeen omitted from these charts. Data on industrialproduction, consumer prices, and stock prices forCanada, the United Kingdom, France, West Ger-many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the cor-responding U.S. series. Also included is an in-dustrial production index for the Europeancountries in the Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development (OECD). The in-dustrial production series provide cyclically sen-sitive output measures for large parts of theeconomies covered. Changes in consumer price in-dexes (plotted for the period since 1971) provideimportant measures of the rates of inflation in themajor industrialized countries. Stock prices (alsoshown beginning in 1971) tend to be significant asleading indicators.


HOW TO READ CHARTS

Peak (P) of cycle indicatesend of expansion and begin-ning of recession (shadedarea) as designated by NBER.

Solid line indicates monthlydata. (Data may be actualmonthly figures or movingaverages.)

Broken line indicates actualmonthly data for series wherea moving average is plotted.

Solid line with plotting pointsindicates quarterly data.

Parallel lines indicates a breakin continuity (data not avail-able, extreme value, etc.).

Solid line indicates monthlydata over 6- or 9-monthspans.

Broken line indicates monthlydata over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plottingpoints indicates quarterlydata over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting pointsindicates quarterly data overvarious spans.

Diffusion indexes and ratesof change are centered withinthe spans they cover.

Solid line indicates percentchanges over 3- or 6-monthspans.

Broken line indicates percentchanges over 1-month spans.

Solid line with plotting pointsindicates percent changes over3-or 4-quarter spans.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES

Basic Data

Diffusion Indexes

Rates of Change

Trough (T) of cycle indicatesend of recession and begin-ning of expansion as desig-nated by NBER.

Arabic number indicates latestmonth for which data areplotted. ("9" = September)Dotted line indicates antici-pated data.

Roman number indicateslatest quarter for which dataare plotted. ("IV" = fourthquarter)Various scales are used tohighlight the patterns of theindividual series. "Scale A "is an arithmetic scale, "scaleL-1" is a logarithmic scalewith 1 cycle in a given dis-tance, "scale L-2" is a log-arithmic scale with two cyclesin that distance, etc.

Arabic number indicates latestmonth for which data areused in computing the in-dexes.

Roman number indicateslatest quarter for which dataare used in computing the in-dexes.

Dotted line indicates antici-pated quarterly data overvarious spans.

Arabic number indicates latestmonth used in computingthe changes.

Broken line with plottingpoints indicates percentchanges over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicateslatest quarter used in com-puting the changes.

1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE atthe back of the report where series are arranged alphabeticallyaccording to subject matter and key words and phrases of theseries titles, or -

2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back ofthe report where series are listed numerically according toseries numbers within each of the report's sections.


Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators

Series title

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORSA. Composite Indexes

910. Twelve leading indicators920. Four coincident indicators930. Six lagging indicators

Leading Indicator Subgroups:913. Marginal employment adjustments914. Capital investment commitments915. Inventory investment and purchasing916. Profitability !917. Money and financial flows

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic ProcessB1. Employment and Unemployment

Marginal Employment Adjustments:* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.2 ..

2. Accession rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2 . . . .*5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4)3. Layoff rate, per 100 employ., mfg. (iriv.4)2 . .4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2

Job Vacancies:60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons

unemployed246. Help-wanted advertising

Comprehensive Employment:48. Employee hours in nonagri. establishments .. .42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities

*41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls40. Employees in mfg., mining, construction . . . .90. Ratio, civilian employment to total popula-

tion of working age2

Comprehensive Unemployment:37. Total unemployed (inverted4)43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted4)245. Avg. weekly insured unemploy-rate (iriv.4)2 ..

*91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted4) ..44. Unemploy. rate, 1 5 weeks and over (mv.4)2 ..

B2. Production and Income

Comprehensive Output and Income:50. GNPm 1972 dollars52. Personal income in 1972 dollars

*51. Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars ..53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and con-

struction, 1972 dollars

Industrial Production:*47. Industrial production, total

73. Industrial production, durable mfrs74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars

Capacity Utilization:82. Caoacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB283. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA284. Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB2 . . .

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, andDeliveries

Orders and Deliveries.6. New orders, durable goods7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars

*8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 dol. .25. Chg. in unfilled orders, durable goods296. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5

*32. Vendor performance2 (u)

Consumption and Trade:56. Manufacturing and trade sales

*57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars . .75. Industrial production, consumer goods54. Sales of retail stores59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars55. Personal consumption expend., autos58. Index of consumer sentiment (u)

B4. Fixed Capital Investment

Formation of Business Enterprises*12. Net business formation

13. New business incorporations

Timingclassifi-cation3

L.L.Lc,c,c

Lg,Lg,Lg

L,L,LL.L.LL,L,LL.L.LL.L.L

L,L,LL,C,LL,L,LL.C.LL.L.LL.Lg.U

L,Lg,UL,Lg,U

U,C,CU,C,Cc.c.cL.C.U

U.Lg.U

L,Lg,UL.Lg.UL.Lg.U

Lg.Lg.LgLg,Lg,Lg

c,c,cc.c.cc,c,c

c.c.c

c,c,cc.c.cC.L.LC.C.C

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c.c.cc.c.cC.L.CC,L,UU,L,UL.C.CL.L.L

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Unitof

measure

1967=100 ..do. . ..do. . . .

do. . . .do. . . .do. . . .do. . . .do. . . .

Hoursdo. . . .

PercentThousands. .Percent

do. . . .

Ratio1967=100...

A.-., bil. hrs..Thousands. .

do. .. .do. . . .

Percent

Thousands . .Percent

do. . . .WeeksPercent

A.r., bil. dol.do. . . .do. .. .

do. . . .

1967=100..

G O . . . .

A.r., bil. dol.

Percent. .do. . . ,

.. . .do. . . .

Bii. doi. . . .do. .

do. . . .do. . . .

Bil. dol., EOPPercent

Bil. doldo. .. .

1967=100. . .Mi!, dol

do. . . .A.r., bil. doi.1 Q 1966=100

1967=100 ..Number. . . .

Average

1980

1 3 1 . 21 4 0 , 31 7 6 . 8

9 2 . 91 0 7 , 21 0 1 . 0

9 0 . 81 3 5 . 6

3 9 . 72 . 83 . 54 8 01 . 71 . 5

0 .508129

1 6 9 . 8 39 5 ,9389 0 , 5 6 42 5 ,718

5 8 . 4 7

7 , 6 3 77 . 13 .9

1 1 . 91 . 7

1480 .71 2 0 7 . 51 0 4 3 . 2

2 3 1 . 1

1 4 7 . 01 3 6 . 71 6 1 . 26 6 5 . 2

7 9 . 178

8 0 . 0

7 9 . 3 23 8 . 3 03 3 . 7 3

1 . 2 63 0 8 . 8 2

40

3 2 0 . 1 115 4 . 6 3

1 4 5 . 47 9 , 3 2 54 3 , 4 8 5

6 1 . 86 4 . 4

1 2 1 . 14 4 , 2 9 3

1981

133 .1141.4187.9

92 .9103.2102.4

NA138 .3

3 9.82 . 83 . 24461 . 61.3

0.429119

170.8397,03091,5482 5,676

58.28

8,27 37.63 .4

13.72 . 1

1510 . 31240.71068 .7

2 3 0.9

151.0140 .51 6 4 . 86 8 4 . 9

7 8 . 476

7 9 . 9

8 5 . 0 73 8 . 2 43 4 . 0 3

0 . 0 73 0 9 . 6 1

45

3 4 9 . 8 51 5 6 . 1 2

1 4 7 . 98 6 , 5 6 64 4 , 0 6 0

68 .07 0 . 7

1 1 3 . 24 8 , 3 8 4

3d Q1981

1 3 3 . 314 2 . 419 3 . 8

9 3 . 21 0 2 . 31 0 3 . 0

9 2 . 81 3 8 . 0

3 9 . 82 . 93 . 24 3 31 . 41 . 4

0 . 4 3 9118

1 7 0 . 0 59 7 , 2 8 69 1 , 9 3 82 5 , 9 3 3

5 8 . 3 3

8 , 0 1 37 . 43 . 2

14.02 . 0

1515.8124 7.91073.0

231 .1

153.01 4 2 . 6166 .86 9 1 . 9

7 9 . 376

81 . 1

8 7 . 7 83 9 . 0 63 4 . 5 1

1.003 1 7 . 4 6

46

3 5 3 .751 5 6 . 5 9

1 4 9 . 48 7 , 6 9 24 4 , 3 1 3

70 .27 4 . 8

1 1 2 . 24 8 , 8 2 8

Basic

4th Q1981

1 2 7 . 91 3 8 . 41 8 5 . 4

8 9 . 99 9 . 49 9 . 8

NA13 6 . 1

3 9 .32 . 52 . 95 3 62 . 21 . 1

0 . 3 6 01 1 0

1 7 0 . 2 19 6 , 7 2 39 1 , 4 8 92 5 , 3 9 5

5 7 . 7 8

9 , 1 1 38 . 43 . 8

1 3 . 22 . 2

1 4 9 8 . 41 2 4 7 . 61 0 7 3 . 5

2 2 7 . 1

1 4 6 . 3134 .51 6 0 . 26 7 2 . 6

7 4 . 87 2

7 5 . 2

7 9 . 1 73 4 . 7 53 1 . 2 1- 2 . 6 2

3 0 9 . 6 133

3 4 4 . 361 5 1 . 2 9

14 4 . 28 6 , 5 7 34 3 ,128

62 .96 5 . 7

1 0 7 . 14 8 , 3 0 5

data1

1st Q1982

1 2 5 . 013 5 . 21 8 3 . 5

NA9 8 . 89 6 . 7

NA1 3 6 . 4

3 8 . 62 . 3

NA548

NANA

0 . 3 1 61 0 2

1 6 8 . 9 79 6 , 1 7 79 0 , 9 1 42 4 , 7 6 7

57 . 3 3

9 , 5 7 68 . 84 . 1

13.82 . 5

1483 .61245.81070.2

225.3

141.4128.4155.6661 .6

71.5NA

7 1 . 4

7 9 . 4 13 4 . 7 33 0 . 4 0- 0 . 0 6

3 0 9 . 4 534

NANA

141.086 ,68642,908

69 .566.5

NANA

Jan.1982

1 2 5 . 6134 .31 8 2 . 3

NA9 9 . 19 7 . 4

NA1 3 7 . C

37 .32 . 3

NA563

NANA

0 . 3 3 9106

1 6 6 . 8 89 6 , 1 7 09 0 , 8 7 92 4 , 8 0 1

57 . 4 0

9 , 2 9 88 . 54 . 0

1 3 . 52 . 2

1 2 3 9 . 01 C 6 4 . 8

2 2 4 . 5

14 0 . 61 2 7 . 01 5 4 . 7

7 7 . 1 03 3 . 7 12 9 . 6 0- 0 . 6 5

3 0 8 . 9 632

3 3 6 . 6 61 4 6 . 7 5

1 3 9 . 78 5 , 3 2 04 2 , 1 3 3

7 1 . 0

NANA

Feb.1982

1 2 5 . 013 6 . 01 8 4 . 1

NA9 8 . 19 6 . 7

NA1 3 5 . 4

3 9 . 52 . 4

NA5 1 4

NANA

0 . 3 2 0103

1 7 0 . 6 29 6 , 2 1 791 ,0402 4 , 8 4 1

5 7 . 3 5

9 , 5 7 58 . 84 . 0

14 . 12 . 5

1 2 4 6 . 61 0 7 1 . 7

225 .9

14 2 .31 2 9 . 61 5 6 . 4

7 9 . 8 034 .9430 . 6 1- 0 . 4 7

3 0 8 . 5 03 6

3 4 3 . 9 9151.08

141.887,5744 3,311

66.5

NANA

Mar.1982

1 2 4 . 41 3 5 . 31 8 4 . 0

NA9 9 . 39 6 . 1

NA13 6 .8

3 9 . 02 . 3

NA5 66

NANA

0 .29096

1 6 9 . 4 09 6 , 1 4 49 0 , 8 2 22 4 , 6 6 0

5 7 . 2 3

9 , 8 5 49 . 04 . 3

1 3 . 92 . 7

1 2 5 1 . 81 0 7 4 . 0

2 2 5 . 5

1 4 1 . 21 2 8 . 61 5 5 . 6

8 1 . 3 33 5 . 5 33 1 . 0 0

0 . 9 53 0 9 . 4 5

3 5

NANA

141.487,1644 3 , 2 7 9

6 2 . 0

NANA

Percent change

Jan.to

Feb.1982

- 0 . 51 . 31.0

NA- 1 . 0- 0 . 7

NA- 1 . 2

5 . 90 . 1

NA8 . 7

NANA

- 0 . 0 1 9- 2 . 8

2 . 20 .0 . 2C . 2

- 0 . 0 5

- 3 . 0- C . 3

0 .- 4 . 4- 0 . 3

0 . 60 . 6

0 . 6

1 . 22 . 01 . 1

3 . 53 . 63 . 4

0 . 1 8- 0 . 1

4

2 . 23 . 01 . 52 . 62 . 8

- 6 . 3

NANA

Feb.to

Mar.1982

- 0 . 5- 0 . 5- 0 . 1

NA1 . 2

- 0 . 6NA

1 . 0

- 1 . 3- 0 . 1

NA- 1 0 . 1

NANA

- 0 . 0 3 0- 6 . 8

- 0 . 7- 0 . 1- 0 . 2- 0 . 7

- 0 . 1 2

- 2 . 9- 0 . 2- C . 3

1 . 4- 0 . 2

0 . 40 . 2

- 0 . 2

- 0 . 8- 0 . 8- 0 . 5

1 . 91 . 71 . 3

1 .420 . 3

- 1

NANA

- 0 . 3- 0 . 5- 0 . 1

- 6 . 8

NANA

3d Qto

4th Q1981

- 4 . 1- 2 . 8- 4 . 3

- 3 . 5- 2 . 8- 3 . 1

NA- 1 . 4

- 1 . 3- 0 . 4- 0 . 3

- 2 3 . 8- 0 . 8- 0 . 3

- 0 . 0 7 9- 6 . 8

0 . 1- 0 . 6- 0 . 5- 2 . 1

- 0 . 5 5

- 1 3 . 7- 1 . 0- 0 . 6

5 . 7- 0 . 2

- 1 . 10 .0 .

- 1 . 7

- 4 . 4- 5 . 7- 4 . 0- 2 . 8

- 4- 5 . 9

- 9 . 8- 1 1 . 0

- 9 . 6- 3 . 6 2

- 2 . 5- 1 3

- 2 . 7- 3 . 4- 3 . 5- 1 . 3- 2 . 7

-10 .4- 1 2 . 2

- 4 . 5- 1 . 1

4th Qto

1st Q1982

- 2 . 3- 2 . 3- 1 . 0

NA- 0 . 6- 3 . 1

NA0 . 2

- 1 . 8- 0 . 2

NA- 2 . 2

NANA

-0 .044- 7 . 3

- 0 . 7- C . 6- 0 . 6- 2 . 5

- 0 . 4 5

- 5 . 1- 0 . 4- 0 . 3- 4 . 5- 0 . 3

- 1 .0- 0 . 1- 0 . 3

- 0 . 8

- 3 . 3- 4 . 5- 2 . 9- 1 .6

NA- 3 . 8

0 . 3- C . I- 2 . 62 . 5 6- 0 . 1

1

NANA

- 2 . 20 . 1

- 0 . 510 .5

1 . 2

NANA

E

910920930

913914915916917

121

2534

6046

48424 140

90

3743459 144

50525 1

53

47727449

8 28384

678

259632

56577554595558

1213


Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Continued

Series title

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.

Business Investment Commitments:10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment . . .

*20. Contr. and orders, plant and equip.,1972dol

24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense . . .27. New orders, capital goods industries, nonde-

fense, 1972 dollars9. Construction contracts, commercial and in-

dustrial buildings, floor space1 1 MAIAI pQnttpI snnrnnn^t innQ mfn1 1. IMt/VvLaLJlLQl aLjpiULJlluLlUllj, IMILJ

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5 . . . .

Business Investment Expenditures:61 Business GxpGnd OGW p!3nt 3nd GQuiprnGnt69. Machinery and equipment sales and business

construction expenditures76. Industrial production, business equip86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total , 1972 dol.

Residential Construction Commitments andInvestment:

28. New private housing units started, total*29. New building permits, private housing

89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dol

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment

Inventory Investment:30 Cho in business inventories 1972 dol

*36. Change in inventories on hand and on order,1972 dollars (smoothed6)2

3 1 . Chg. in book value, mfg, and trade invent.2 . .38. Chg. in mt l . stocks on hand and on order2 . . .

Inventories on Hand and on Order:7 1 . Mfg. and trade inventories, tota l5

*70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 dol.5

65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods5

77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade,constant dollars2

78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and onorder5

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits

Sensitive Commodity Prices:*92. Chg. in sensitive prices (smoothed6)2

23. Spot market prices, raw industrials (u)

Stock Prices:*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks(u)

Profits and Profit Margins:16. Corporate profits after taxes18. Corp. prof its after taxes, 1972 dollars79. Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj . . .80 do in 1972 d o l . . . .15. Profits (after taxes) per doi. of sales, mfg.2

26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm bus

Cash Flows:34. Net cash f low, corporate35 Net cash f low corporate 1972 dollars

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:63. Unit labor cost, private business sector68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross

domestic product (1972) nonfm corp"62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg

64. Compensation of employees as percent ofnational income2

B7. Money and Credit

Money:85. Change in money supply ( M l ) 2

102. Change in money supply (M2)2*104. Chg. in total liquid assets (smoothed6)2

105, Money supply (M1), 1972 dollars*106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars

Velocity of Money:107 Ratio RNP to monev sunnlv (M1)2t \J 1 . i laiiu, u iy i LU 11 IUI icy juppiy \IVI i /108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M2)2 . .

Credit Flows:33. Change in mortgage debt2

112. Change in business loans2

113. Change in consumer installment credit2

110. Total private borrowing


UL.L

L.L.LL.L.L

L.L.L

L.C.UU,Lg,UC,Lg,Lg

CLg,Lg

C,Lg,LgC,Lg,UC,Lg,C

L.L.L

L.L.LL.L.L

L L L

L.L.LL.L.LUL.L

Lg,Lg,LgLg,Lg,LgLg,Lg,Lg

Lg,Lg,Lg

L,Lg,Lg

UULU.L.L

UUL

L,L,LL L LL,'c\LL # C ' LL,L,LL.L.L

L.L.LL.L.L

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Lg,Lg,Lg

Lg,Lg,Lg

UULL,C,UUULUULUUL

c,c,cC.Lg'.C

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Unitof

Bil. dol

do. . . .do. . . .

do. . . .

Mil. sq. f t . . .Bii dolBil. dol., EOP

A.r., bi l . dol.

do. . . .

1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 . . .

A.r., bil. dol.

A.r., thous. .

1967=100. . .A.r., bi l . dol.

do.

. . . . . d o . . . .do. . . .

Bil. do!

Bil. dol., EOPdo, . . .do. . . .

Ratio

Bil. dol., EOP

Percent

1967=100. . .

1941-43=10.

A.r., bi l . dol.do.

do. . . .do. . . .

Cents1977=100. . .

A.r., biL dol.do

1977 = 100...

Do liars1967=100..

Percent

Percent. . . .

do. . . .

. . . . .do. . . .Bil. dol

do. . . .

. . . . .do. . . .

A.r., bi l . dol.do. . . .do. . . .do. . . .

Basic data1

Average

1980

2 5 . 6 8

1 3 . 8 02 2 . 5 5

1 2 . 3 7

7 7 . 8 12 5 . 9 09 0 . 7 3

2 9 5 . 6 3

3 1 0 . 9 8173 .2158 .4

1,29296 .648 . 1

- 2 . 9

- 9 . 6 031.00.38

475.20262.97

76 .56

1 .71

218.24

1.49298.0

118.78

163 .288 .8

100.355 . 1

4 .896 .3

265.4141 .8

132.4

1 .196195.0

75 .3

0.530 .720.7 5

203.7807.8

6 .5431.357

61.481 7 . 2 1

2.63292.75

1981

2 7 . 2 2

13.7823.46

12.14

77 .7226 .3392 .04

3 21.49

338.84181 .1162.4

1,08778 .845 .2

7 . 1

1.633 8 . 10.10

513.29268.78

83.85

1.70

219 .41

1.27283.4

128.04

155.578 .4

113 .95 7 .7

4 .796 .8

276.3136.5

144.0

1.285211.0

75 .5

0 .520.800.92

19 7.6803.6

6 .8101.376

39.9719.4020.87

305.72

3d Q1981

2 7 . 4 0

13.8723.99

12.39

7 3.422 6 . 5 197 .34

328.25

344 .11184.0163 .9

9 6 270.842 .7

14 0

9.7755.60.83

508.13268.53

83.78

1.71

224.77

0.60286.4

125.68

156.376 .5

117 .658 .9

4 .896 .8

279.2136.4

145.2

1.295211.3

75 .3

0.220 . 7 10.99

195.4802 .2

6.8861.381

37.3530.7927.82

286.27

4th Q1981

2 6 . 3 6

1 3 . 5 122.44

11.82

71 .892 2 . 6 192 .04

327.83

34 3.58179.5.16 2.7

8 6 56 0 . 139.4

2.0920.6

- 1 . 7 9

513.29268.78

83 .85

1.78

219 .41

- 0 . 2 3270.6

122.17

144 .070 .5

108.853 .6

4 . 396.0

273.013 0.4

149 .7

1.336221.2

75 .9

0.740.820.89

194.5804 .6

6.8661.376

18.0516 .77

6.27260.98

1st Q1982

2 5 . 2 9

12.6221.47

10.99

61.52NANA

^ 3 0 ^4

NA171.8162.4

9 1 966.9-58 "5

17 5

NANANA

NANANA

NA

NA

- 0 . 9 0259.6

1 1 4 . 2 1

NANANANANANA

NANA

NA

NA230.0

NA

0.550.770.73

197.9817.8

6.6851.357

NA3 4 . 9 1

NANA

Jan.1982

26.18

12.9721.57

11.00

56.29

326.89172.2

8 8 567.2

- 1 3 . 5 8- 2 6 . 3- 3 . 2 6

511.09266.58

83.20

1.82

216.14

- 0 . 4 8263.4

117 .28

230.7

1.751.020.83

198.3813 .9

1.357

35.424 6 . 6 4

5 . 3 2

Feb.1982

2 4 . 3 8

12.0821.04

10.66

65.10

339.26172.7

9 2 464.2

- 2 3 . 4 9- 2 5 . 7- 1 . 9 0

508.95265.14

84.39

1.75

214.24

- 0 . 7 7261.0

114.50

229.3

- 0 . 2 90.360.70

197.3814.8

1.361

16.3457.35

0.90

Mar.1982

2 5 . 3 1

12.802 1 . 8 1

11.32

6 3.17

NA170.6

9 4 769.3

NANANA

NANANA

NA

NA

- 1 . 4 4254.5

110.84

2 3 0 . 1

0.200.930.66

198.2824.7

1.354

NA0.74

NA

Percent change

Jan.to

Feb.1982

- 6 . 9

- 6 . 9- 2 . 5

- 3 . 1

15.7

3 . 80 . 3

4 . 4- 4 . 5

- 9 . 9 10 . 6

1.36

- 0 . 4- 0 . 5

1 . 4

- 0 . 0 7

- 0 . 9

- 0 . 2 9- 0 . 9

- 2 . 4

- 0 . 6

- 2 . 0 4- 0 . 6 6- 0 . 1 3

- 0 . 50 . 1

0.004

- 1 9 . 0 81 0 . 7 1- 4 . 4 2

Feb.to

Mar.1982

3 . 8

6 . 03 . 7

6 . 2

- 3 . 0

NA- 1 . 2

2 . 57 . 9

NANANA

NANANA

NA

NA

- 0 . 6 7- 2 . 5

- 3 . 2

0 . 3

0 . 4 90 . 5 7

- 0 . 0 40 . 51 . 2

- 0 . 0 0 7

NA- 5 6 . 6 1

NA

3d Qto

4th Q1981

- 3 . 8

- 2 . 6- 6 . 5

- 4 . 6

- 2 . 1- 1 4 . 7

5 4

- 0 . 1

- 0 . 2- 2 . 4- 0 . 7

- 1 0 . 1- 1 5 . 1

-7 .7

- 1 0 . 7

-7 .68- 3 5 . 0- 2 . 6 2

1 . 00 . 10 . 1

0.07

- 2 . 4

- 0 . 8 3- 5 . 5

- 2 . 8

-7 .9- 7 .8-7 .5- 9 .0- 0 .5~0 .8

- 2 .2- 4 .4

3 . 1

3 .24 .7

0 .6

0.520 .11

- 0 . 1 0- 0 . 5

0 . 3

0.020-G.005

-19 .30-14.02-21 .55

- 8 . 8

4th Qto

1st Q1982

- 4 . 1

- 6 . 6 4 ~*

- 7 . 0

- 14 .4NANA

0 . 8

NA- 4 . 3- 0 . 2

6 . 211.3- 2 . 8

-21 .7

NANANA

NANANA

NA

NA

- 0 .67- 4 . 1

- 6 . 5

NANANANANANA

NANA

NA

NA4 . 0

NA

- 0 . 1 9- 0 . 0 5- 0 . 1 6

1 . 71 . 6

- 0 . 1 8 1-0 .019

NA18.14

NANA

.i1cv>

.

10

2024

27

91197

6 1

697686

282989

30

363 138

7 17065

77

78

9 223

19

1618798 01526

3435

63

686 2

64

851 0 21 0 41 0 5106

1 0 7108

331 1 21 1 31 1 0



Series title

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.B7. Money and Credit-Con.

Credit Diff iculties:14. Liabilities of business failures ( i n v . 4 ) 39. Delinquency rate, instai. loans ( inv.4 )2 5 . . . .

Bank Reserves:93. Free reserves ( i n v e r t e d 4 ) 2 94. Borrowing f rom the Federal Reserve 2

Interest Rates:119. Federal funds r a t e 2 114. Treasury bill r a t e 2 115. Treasury bond y i e l d s 2 116. Corporate bond y i e l d s 2 117. Municipal bond y i e l d s 2 118. Mortgage yields, res iden t ia l 2 67. Bank rates on short-term bus. l o a n s 2

*109. Average prime rate charged by b a n k s 2

Outstanding Debt:66. Consumer installment credit5

*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,weekly reporting large comm. banks

*95. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pers. income2

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMICMEASURES

B. Prices, Wages, and ProductivityB1 . Price Movements

310. Implicit price deflator, GNP320. Consumer prices (CPI), all i tems

320c. Change in CPI, all items, S/A2322. CPI, food

330. Producer prices (PPI), all commodities331. PPI, crude materials

333. PPI, capital equipment334. PPI, finished consumer goods

B2. Wages and Productivi ty

340. Average hourly earnings, production workers,private nonfarm economy

341. Real average hourly earnings, productionworkers, private nonfarm economy

345. Average hourly compensation, nonfatm bus. . .346. Real avg. hourly comp., nonfarm business . . .370. Output per hour, private business sector

C. Labor Force, Employment, andUnemployment

441. Total civilian labor force442. Total civilian employment

37. Number of persons unemployed444. Unemployed males, 20 years and over445. Unemployed females, 20 years and over446. Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age

Labor Force Participation Rates:451. Males, 20 years and over2

452. Females, 20 years and over2453. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age2

D. Government Act iv i t iesD 1 . Receipts and Expendi tures

501. Federal Government receipts502. Federal Government expenditures500. Federal Government surplus or deficit2511. State and local government leceipts512. State and local government expenditures . . . .510. State and local govt. surplus or deficit2,

D2. Defense Indicators

517. Defense Department obligations525. Military prime contract awards548. New orders, defense products564. National defense purchases

E. U.S. International TransactionsE1. Merchandise Trade

602. Exports, total except military aid604. Exports of agricultural products606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery612. General imports, total614. Imports of petroleum and products616. Imports of automobiles and parts


L.L.LL,L,L

L.U.UL,Lg,U

L,Lg,LgC,Lg,LgC,Lg,LgLg,Lg,LgU,Lg,LgLg,Lg,LgLg,Lg,LgLgXg.Lg

Lg,Lg,Lg

Lg,Lg,LgLg,Lg,Lg

Unitof

measure

Mil.dolPercent, EOP

Mil.doldo. . . .

Percentdo. . . .do. . . .do. . . .do. . . .do. . . .do.do. . . .

Bil.dol., EOP

Bil.dolPercent

1972=100...1967=100...Percent1967=100...

do. . . .do. . . .dodo. . . .do. . . .

1977=100...

do. . . .do. . . .do. . . .do. . . .

Millions . . . .do. . . .

Thousands. .do. . . .do.do. . . .

Percentdo.do. . . .

A.r . ,bi l . dol.do. . . .do. . . .do.do. . . .do. .. .

Mil. doldo. . . .do. . . .

A.r., b i l .dol .

Mil .dol. . .do. . . .do. . . .do. . . .do. .. .do. . . .

Average

1980

3 8 6 . 2 62 . 5 7

- 1 , 1 4 11 , 4 2 0

1 3 . 3 61 1 . 6 11 0 . 8 112.77

8.6013.4215.1715.27

306 .21

1 6 4 . 5 114.15

177.4246.8

1 .0254.6

268.8304.62 8 0 32 3 9 . 82 4 8 . 9

1 2 7 . 3

9 5 . 61 5 0 . 5

96 . 099 . 3

106 . 9 49 9 . 3 07 , 6 3 73 , 3 5 52 , 6 1 51 , 6 6 9

7 9 . 45 1 . 556 . 7

540 . 8602 . 0- 6 1 . 25 8 4 . 05 5 5 . 0

29 . 1

1 3 , 3 9 26 , 7 5 44 , 6 6 21 3 1 . 7

1 8 , 3 9 03 , 4 5 55 , 7 8 8

2 0 , 7 7 16 , 1 3 92 , 0 3 0

1981

NA2 . 3 7

- 1 , 0 5 11 , 359

16.3814.0812.8715.4811.331 6 . 3 119.5618.87

3 27.0 8

182.2413.27

193 .7272.4

0 . 7274.6

293.4529 .15 0 6 02 6 4 . 32 7 1 . 2

1 3 8 . 9

9 2 . 61 4 3 . 6

9 5 . 71 0 0 . 4

108 . 6 71 0 0 . 4 0

8 , 2 7 33 , 6 1 52 , 8 9 51 , 7 6 3

79 . 05 2 . 15 5 . 4

626 . 0688 . 4- 6 2 . 4417 . 238 0 . 5

36 . 7

1 5 , 9 4 58 , 0 6 55 , 2 0 415 4 . 3

1 9 , 4 5 63 , 6 0 84 , 4 5 6

2 1 , 7 5 16 , 3 1 92 , 1 9 0

3d Q1981

NA2 . 2 8

- 1 , 1 6 41,516

17 .5815.0913 .6016.3312 .1117.762 1 . 1 120.32

525 .51

18 6.6 313 .22

195.6276.7

1 . 0276.6

296 .13 3 3.5^09 2266.92 7 3.4

140 .4

92 .3145 .4

95 .6100.9

108 .67100.65

8,0133,4422,8721,699

78 .95 2 . 154 .9

6 38.3694 .0- 5 5 . 7419 .63 81 .8

37.8

16 ,9519,2255,95215 4 . 1

19,2905,2855 ,111

21,5455,8152,229

Basic

4th Q1981

NA2 . 3 7

-5158 2 7

13.5912.0213.251 6 . 0 112.541 6 . 6 117.231 7 . 0 1

3 27.0 8

191.2215.15

2 0 0 . 1280.7

C . 4279.3

295.8318.2310 527 2.4276.0

142.9

92 .3147 .6

95 .299 . 2

109 .16100.04

9,1134,1663,1001,847

78 .952.554.6

627 .2727 .2

-100 .0425 .7587.8

55 .9

16,1247,7774,905169 .7

19,0675,4664,256

21,7775 ,7472,289

data'

1st Q1982

NANA

- 1 , 1 4 41,617

14.2312.8913.4516 .1413.0216.9617.1316.27

NA

199.98NA

201.9283.0

0 . 1282.3

298.2317.0511.4274.9277.5

145.4

95 .2NANANA

109 .1399.559,5764,4073,2751,893

78.552.254.2

NA7 5 5 . 1

NANA

^92 iNA

NANA

7,770171 .5

NANANANANANA

Jan.1982

NANA

- 1 , 1 0 11 , 5 2 6

13.221 2 . 4 113.7316.3413.2817 .38

15.75

327 .52

196.771 3 . 1 1

282.50 . 5

281.5

298.2519.2512.4275.2277.9

1 4 5 . 1

9 5 . 1

108 .889 9.589,2984,5225,1041,872

78.55 2 . 154.2

1 9 , 3 6 19,7566,696

18,7575,2584,546

22,8296,8102,589

Feb.1982

NANA

- 1 , 2 5 01,715

14 .7815.7813.6316.3512 .9717.10

16 .56

327.60

201.5515.05

285.40 . 2

285.2

298.5517.5

2 7 4 . 1277.7

145.2

92 .9

109 .1699.599,5754 , 3 5 13 , 2861,958

78 .552 .254.6

20,60813 ,761

8,669

18,7043,5904,054

19,0904,3962,135

Mar.1982

NANA

- 1 , 1 0 01,611

14.6812.4912 .9815 .7212.821 6 . 4 1

16.50

NA

2 0 1 . 6 1NA

2 8 3 . 1- 0 . 3

282 .2

297.9314.6

275.5276.8

145.8

95 .5

109.3599 .499,8544,5483,4551,870

78.552.455 .8

NANA

7,946

NANANANANANA

Percent change

Jan.to

Feb.1982

NANA

1291 8 7

1.561.57

- 0 . 1 00 . 01

- 0 . 5 1- 0 . 2 8

0 . 81

0 .

2 . 4- 0 . 0 8

0 .5- 0 . 1

0 . 6

0 . 1- 0 . 6- 0 . 3- 0 . 4- 0 . 1

0 . 1

- 0 . 2

0 . 30 .3 . 00 .75 . 9I .5

0 .0 . 10 . 4

6 . 44 1 . 129 .5

- 0 . 210 .2- 6 . 7

- 1 6 . 4- 5 5 . 4- 1 0 . 6

Feb.to

Mar.1982

NANA

-130-102

- 0 . 1 0- 1 . 2 9- 0 . 6 5- C . 6 3- 0 . 1 5- 0 . 6 9

- 0 . 0 6

NA

0 .NA

- 0 . 1- 0 . 5- 0 . 4

- 0 . 2- 0 . 9 0 . 5

0 . 5- 0 . 3

0 . 4

0 . 6

0 . 2- 0 . 1

2 . 94 . 54 . 5

- 3 . 5

0 .0 . 2

- 0 . 8

NANA

- 8 . 3

NANANANANANA

3d Qto

4th Q1981

NA- 0 . 0 9

-649-689

- 5 . 9 9- 5 . 0 7- 0 . 3 7- 0 . 3 2

0 .45- 1 . 1 5- 3 . 8 8-5 .51

0 . 5

2 . 5- 0 . 0 7

2 . 51 . 4

- 0 . 61 . 0

- 0 . 1- 4 . 6

0.42 . 11 . 0

1 . 8

C .1 .5

- 0 .4- 1 . 7

0 .5- 0 . 615.721.0

7 . 98 . 7

0 .0 .2

- 0 . 5

- 1 . 74 .8

- 4 4 . 31 .01 .6

- 1 . 9

- 4 . 8- 1 5 . 7-17 .3

10 . 1

- 1 . 25 . 5

-17 . 11 . 1

- 1 . 22 . 7

4th Qto

1st Q1982

NANA

6 2 97 9 0

0 . 6 40 . 8 70 . 2 20 . 1 30 . 4 80 . 3 5

- 0 . 1 0- 0 . 7 4

NA

4 . 6NA

0 . 90 . 8

- C . 31 . 1

0 . 8- 0 . 4

0 . t0 . 90 . 5

1 . 7

1 . 0NANANA

G .- 0 . 5

5 . 15 . 85 . 62 . 5

- 0 . 4- 0 . 1- 0 . 4

NA1 . 1

NANA

1 . 2NA

NANA

5 8 . 41 . 1

NANANANANANA

E

1439

9394

1191141 1 5116117118

67109

66

7 295

5105 2 05205 22

5505 512 ^ 2

5 34

540

54 13455463 7 0

4 4 14 4 2

3 74 4 44 4 54 4 6

4 5 14 5 24 5 ^

5 C 15C25 0 05 1 15 1 2510

5 1 75255485 6 4

6 0 26 0 46 0 66 1 26146 1 6



Series title

I I . OTHER I M P O R T A N T ECONOMICM E A S U R E S - C o n .

E2. Goods and Services Movements ExceptTransfers Under Mi l i tary Grants

618. Merchandise exports620. Merchandise imports622. Merchandise trade balance2651. Income on U.S. investments abroad652. Income on foreign investment in the U.S668. Exports of goods and services669. Imports of goods and services667 Balance on goods and services2

A. National Income and ProductA 1 . G N P a n d Personal Income

50. GNPm 1972 dollars200. GNP in current dollars213. Final sales, 1972 dollars224. Disposable personal income, current dollars . . .225. Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars227. Per capita disposable pers. income, 1972 dol. . .

A2 . Personal Consumpt ion Expenditures

231. Total, 1972 dollars233. Durable goods, 1972 dollars238. Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars239. Services, 1972 dollars230. Total, current dollars232. Durable goods, current dollars236. Nondurable goods, current dollars237. Services, current dollars

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

241. Total, 1972 dollars243. Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars

30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dol.2 . . . .240. Total, current dollars242. Total fixed investment, current dollars245 Chg in bus. inventories, current dol.2

A4. Government Purchasesof Goods and Services

261. Total, 1972 dollars263. Federal Government, 1972 dollars267. State and local governments, 1972 dollars260. Total, current dollars262. Federal Government, current dollars266. State and local governments, current dollars . . .

A5 . Foreign Trade

256. Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . . .257. Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . . .255. Net exports of goods and serv., 1972 dol.2 . . . .252. Exports of goods and services, current dol253. Imports of goods and services, current dol250. Net exports of goods and serv., current dol.2 . .

A6. Nat ional Income and Its Components

220. National income280. Compensation of employees282. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj286. Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj288. Net interest

A7 . Saving

290. Gross saving (private and govt.)295. Business saving292. Personal saving298. Government surplus or deficit2293. Personal saving rate2

Unitof

measure

Mil. doldododododododo

A.r., bil, dold o . . . . . . .dododo

A.r., dollarsdo

A.r., bil. doldododododododo

dodododododo

dodododo

. . . dodo

dodododododo

dodododododo

dodododo

Percent

Basic data1

Average

1979

46,11852,955- 6 , 8 3 616,675

8,31072 ,23270,480

1 ,752

1483.02413.91472.91641.71011.5

6,5884 ,493

920.9146 .6354 .6429 .6

1510.9212 .3602 .2696.3

232.6222.5

10 .2415.8398 .3

17 .5

281.8101.71 8 0 . 1473.8167.9305.9

146.9109 .2

37.7281 .3267 .9

13.4

1963.31460.9

131 .6196.8

30.5143.4

411 .9312.7

86 .211.9

5 . 2

1980

5 5 , 9 9 26 2 , 3 2 7- 6 , 3 3 518,98510,79486,16883 ,472

2,696

1480.72626 .11483.61821.71018.4

6,5044,473

9 3 5 . 1135.8358.4440.9

1672.8211.9675.7785.2

203.6206.6- 2 . 9

395.3401.2

- 5 . 9

290.0108 .1181.95 34.7198.9335.8

1 6 1 . 11 0 9 . 1

52.0339.8316.5

23.3

2121.41596.5

130.6182.7

31.8179.8

401.9331.6101.3- 3 2 . 1

5 . 6

1981

5 9 , 0 7 56 6 , 0 2 9- 6 , 9 5 422,51413,32593,99990 ,664

3, 335

1510.32925.51503.22016.01040.4

6,5704,526

958 .9139.4367.3452.2

1857.8232.0743 .2882.6

214.8207.6

7 . 1450 .5434.4

16 .2

291.7111.5180.2591.2230.2361.0

160.4115.5

44 .9367.3341.3

26 .0

2347.21771.6

13 4 .8191.7

32 .6215.4

455.537 2.5107.6- 2 5 . 7

5 . 3

4th Q1980

5 7 , 1 4 96 2 , 7 1 9- 5 , 5 7 019,76411,50788,63684 ,902

3,734

1485.62730.61492.71897.01025.8

6,4994,488

946.81 3 9 . 1360.4447.3

1751.022 3.3703.5824.2

200.5207.6

- 7 . 2397.74 1 5 . 1- 1 7 . 4

289.8107.4182.4558.6212.0346.6

157.4108.9

48.5346 .1322.7

23.3

2204.81661.8

134.0183.3

32.4193.3

406 .7339.3

97 .6- 3 0 . 8

5 . 1

1st Q1981

6 0 , 9 9 06 5 , 6 5 1- 4 , 6 6 12 1 , 5 8 112,4989 4 , 3 4 189 ,480

4 , 8 6 1

1516.42853.01517.81947.81033.3

6,6204 , 5 1 1

960 .2146.8364.5448 .9

1810 .1238.3726.0845.8

211.62 1 3 . 1

- 1 . 44 3 7 . 1432.7

4 . 5

292.6111 .2182.5576.5221.6354.9

162.5111.6

50 .9367.4338.2

29.2

2291 .11722.4

1 3 2 . 1202 .0

22.7200.8

442.6362.2

88.9- 9 . 7

4 . 6

2dQ1981

6 0 , 3 6 96 7 , 2 6 3- 6 , 8 9 42 2 , 4 1 31 3 , 6 4 99 4 , 9 9 29 2 , 2 6 2

2 , 7 3 0

1510.42885.81499.61985.610 2 6.8

6 ,5804,517

9 5 5 . 1137.4367.0450.7

1 8 2 9 . 1227.3735 .3866.5

219.7208.9

10.8458.6425 .3

23.3

289.5108.7180.7577.4219.5257.9

161.5115.4

46.2268.224 7.5

20.8

2320.91752.0

1 3 4 . 1190.3

3 3.3211.0

465.3368.7106.6- 1 1 . 2

5 . 4

3d Q1981

5 7 , 9 2 96 4 , 9 5 5- 7 , 0 2 62 3 , 3 0 11 4 , 0 4 39 4 , 0 4 69 0 , 0 8 2

2 , 9 6 2

1515.82965.01500.92042.01042.6

6,5864,525

962.8140 .3268.8452 .7

1882.9226.2751.2896.4

221.5206.5

14.9462.0425.6

27.5

288.2109.6178.8588.9226.42 6 2.5

1 6 0 . 1116.9

42 .2268.0238.7

29.3

2377 .61790.7

13 7 . 1195.7

33 .9220.2

469.4379.3106.9

. - 1 7 . 95 . 2

4th Q1981

57,01266,248- 9 , 2 3 622 ,7621 3 , 1 1 192,6179 0 , 8 3 1

1,786

1498.42998.31494.22088.51047.9

6,4944 , 5 4 1

957.513 3 . 1368.8455.6

1908.3226.4760.3921.5

206.32 0 2 . 1

4 . 2442 .24 24 .0

9 . 4

295.4116.6178.8622.025 2.3368.7

157 .4118.2

29.2265.6341.0

24.7

2399 .11821.3

135.9177.6

34.5229.7

444.7279.8128.0- 6 4 . 1

6 . 1

1st Q1982

NANANANANANANANA

1483.62 9 9 5 . 11 5 0 1 . 12115.31048.4

6,4164,524

966 .8137.7269.7459 .4

1950.7226 .87 6 6 . 1947 .8

1 8 3 . 1200 .7- 1 7 . 5292.6422 .6-40 .0

295.8118.3177 .5628 .0255.7272.3

152.7115.8

3 7.8359.02 2 5 . 1

23.8

NA1844.9

129.0NA

24.8237.9

NANA

112.0NA

5 . 3

Percent change

2d Qto

3d Q1981

- 4 . 0- 2 . 4- 1 3 2

4 . 02 . 9

- 1 . 0- 2 . 4

1 , 2 3 3

0 . 42 . 70 . 12 . 80 . 70 . 10 . 4

0 . 82 . 10 . 50 . 73 . 02 . 92 . 22 . 5

0 . 8- 1 . 1

4 . 11 . 00 . 14 . 2

- 0 . 40 . 8

- 1 . 12 . 03 . 11 . 3

- 0 . 91 . 3

- 2 . 0- 0 . 1- 2 . 5

8 . 5

2 . 42 . 22 . 22 . 81 . 84 . 4

0 . 92 . 90 . 3

- 6 . 7- 0 . 2

3d Qto

4th Q1981

- 1 . 62 . 0

- 2 , 2 1 0- 2 . 2- 6 . 6- 1 . 5

0 . 8- 2 , 1 7 7

- 1 . 11 . 1

- 0 . 42 . 30 . 4

- 1 . 40 . 1

- 0 . 6- 5 . 1

0 .0 . 41 . 3

- 4 . 11 . 22 . 8

- 6 . 9- 2 . 1

- 1 0 . 7- 4 . 3- 0 . 4

- 1 8 . 1

2 . 56 . 40 .5 . 6

11 .91 . 7

- 1 . 71 . 1

- 4 . 0- 0 . 7

0 . 7- 4 . 6

0 . 91 . 7

- 0 . 9- 9 . 2

1 . 84 . 3

- 5 . 30 . 1

19.7- 4 6 . 2

0 . 9

4th 0to

1st Q1982

NANANANANANANANA

- 1 . 0- 0 . 1

0 . 51 . 30 .

- 1 . 2- 0 . 2

1 . 03 . 50 . 20 . 82 . 24 . 60 . 82 . 9

- 1 1 . 2- 0 . 7

- 2 1 . 7- 1 1 . 4

- 0 . 3-49 .4

0 . 11 . 5

- 0 . 71 . 00 . 91 . 0

- 2 . 4- 2 . 0- 1 . 4- 1 . 8- 1 . 7- 0 . 9

NA1 . 3

- 5 . 1NA

0 .93 . 6

NANA

- 1 2 . 5NA

- 0 . 8

53E3C

6 1 86 2 06 2 26 5 16 5 26 6 86 6 96 6 7

502 0 02 1 32 2 42 2 52 1 72 2 7

2 3 12 332 3 82 392 3 02 3 2236237

2 4 1243

302 4 02 4 2245

2 6 12 6 22672602 6 2266

2 5 62 5 72 5 52 5 22 5 32 5 0

2 2 02 8 02 8 22 8 62 8 42 8 8

2 9 02 9 52 9 22 9 829 3

NOTE: Series are seasonally ad|usted except tor those indicated by (), which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are incurrent dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCD. NA = not available, a = anticipated.EOP = end of period. A.r. = annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA = inventory valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA = national income accounts.

1 For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available.

2 Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.

3The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L = leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg = lagging; U = unclassified.4 Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.

5 End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.

6 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed at the terminal month of the span.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart A l . Composite Indexes

U , V Jf

Jl [index: 1967^100 [

910. index of twelve leading indicators;;

CYCLICAL INDICATORSCOMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTSContinued

Chart Al . Composite IndexesContinued

1 .

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTSContinued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components

1. Average workweek, production workers,manufacturing (hours)

5. Average claims, State unemployment insurance(thousandsinverted scale) 17771

8. New orders for consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars(bil. dol.)

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slowerdeliveries (percent)

12. Net business formation (index: 1967 = 100)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment,

Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66.

12 APRIL 1982 ItCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTSContinued

Chart A2. Leading Index ComponentsContinued

29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967

36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, ML dol.)

=35

92. Change in sensitive crude materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)

104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent) I I L L

- 1

'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, and 71 .

BCII APRIL 1982 13Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTSContinued

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components

41. Employees on nonagncultural payrolls (millions)CXX

51. Personal income less transfer Davments.

47. Industrial production, total (index: 1967

57. Manufacturing and trade sales,1972 dollars (ML dot.)

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

14 APRIL 1982 BCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

i A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTSContinued

C h a r t A4. L a g g i n g I ndex C o m p o n e n t s

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks-inverted scale)

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weeklyreporting large commercial banks (bil. dol.)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent)

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

BCD APRIL 1982 15Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

B CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C PROCESS

C h a r t B l . E m p l o y m e n t a n d U n e m p l o y m e n t

IMarginal Employment Adjustments 11. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)

5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousandsinverted scale)I L C I I

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employeesinverted scale)

4. Quit rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)

76 7? 78 ?*n L"O 81 82 1S83

Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .

16 APRIL 1982 KCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL J

B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESSContinued

Chart B l . Employment and UnemploymentContinued

60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to numberof persons unemployed (ratio)

46. Help-wanted advertising (index:1967 = 100)

48. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments(ann. rate, bil. hours)

u,c,c

42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions)

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)C,C,C

/-^J^itgJJ^riycing Jndustries^mining,

manufacturing, construction (millions) | LtC,U 1

1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

BCD APRIL 1982 17Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESSContinued

Chart B l . Employment and UnemploymentContinued

[Comprehensive EmploymentCon. |

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (percent)

|Comprehensive Unemployment!37. Number unemployed, total (millionsinverted scale)

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeksinverted scale)

50-

59 i

58-

57

56-

55-

43. Unemployment rate, total (percentinverted scale)

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percentinverted scale)

H-

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percentinverted scale)

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.

18 APRIL 1982 BC

BCD_041982

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