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Bbc 09 a commercial perspective rev 9-2011 narrative- test
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Transcript of Bbc 09 a commercial perspective rev 9-2011 narrative- test
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The Business Case:A Commercial
Perspective
Building the IT Business CaseInformation Resources Management College
National Defense University
8-1-20111
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Objectives
Identify significant factors influencing investment decisions in the public and private sectors.
Evaluate and compare alternative investments in the light of strategic business objectives.
Select and justify an investment based on a variety of financial and non-financial criteria.
Analyze a private sector business case development model for application to the public sector.
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Challenges in Federal IT Acquisitions
Political Influences Size/Complexity Budget Cycle Goals and Measures Other
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The Basic Questions
How much should we invest in IT? How should we allocate the IT investment
budget? How do we know whether we’ve made the
right decision?
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The Basic Questions
How much should we invest in IT? How should we allocate the IT investment
budget? How do we know whether we’ve made the
right decision?
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Determining the IT investment budget
Last year plus Inflation plus x…. % of O&M…. Zero based budgeting…. Industry Best Practices…. Other….
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Determining the IT investment budget
Gomolski, B. How IT Spending Varies According to Company Size. Gartner .9 May 2005. ID G00125306. 7
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Determining the IT investment budget
Gomolski, B. How IT Spending Varies According to Company Size. Gartner .9 May 2005. ID G00125306. 8
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The Basic Questions
How much should we invest in IT? How should we allocate the IT investment
budget? How do we know whether we’ve made the
right decision?
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Commercial Model- an example
Keep the doors open Infrastructure Software maintenance
Mandated Y2K Sarbannes-Oxley Privacy
New Initiatives Tactical Strategic
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Investment by Type by Sector
Light, M., Rosser, B. & Hayward S. Realizing the Benefits of Project and Portfolio Management. Gartner. 4 January, 2005. ID G00125673.
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Federal Agency IT Investments
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PART
Effective Moderately Effective
Adequate Ineffective
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The Environment
IT Manufacturing Marketing
…etc
Investment Portfolio
Selection
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The Business Case Model- Purpose
Aid Management select best value for investment dollars: Justification Analysis
Includes Costs Benefits Risks
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Assessment
Quantitative Costs Benefits Risks
Qualitative Costs Benefits Risks
Includes: Facts Assumptions Constraints
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Facts
Did we include all relevant facts bearing on the investment?
Are they facts or are they beliefs? Are they provable? Are they demonstratable?
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Assumptions
Assumption: A factor that is considered to be true, real or certain, without proof.. affects the project…contains risk.
Assumptions as to benefits External Internal
Assumptions as to cost. Assumptions as to schedule. May require some testing.
Cost
Benefit
?
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Constraints
Constraint: A factor that limits the organization’s options.
Examples: Cost Schedule Skills available Facilities available Legal & regulatory
Includes Exclusions
Cost
Benefit
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Comparison of projects
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Portfolio Selection
Cost
Benefit
Total investment budget
A
B
C
Problem: Allocation of investment dollars to maximize total benefit Typical solution: Investment Review Panels and Multi-Function Analysis
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Portfolio Selection
Cost
Benefit
Total investment budget
B
Problem: Different investments have different risk profiles
B’
Typical Solutions: Use of risk adjusted discount rates. Modeling and Simulation
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Portfolio Selection
Budget year
Net Benefit
Problem: Cost/Benefit profile over time must be considered
1 2 3
DE
F
Typical solution: Payback Period and NPV 22
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Selection of the right projects
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Portfolio SelectionSelect in order COSTTOTAL BENEFITTOTAL
A 400 10 400 10B 500 13 900 23C 100 4 1000 27D 300 6 1300 33E 200 5 1500 38
Select by lowest cost COSTTOTAL BENEFITTOTAL
C 100 4 100 4E 200 5 300 9D 300 6 600 15A 400 10 1000 25B 500 13 1500 38
PROJECT COST BENEFITA 400 10B 500 13C 100 4D 300 6E 200 5
Budget = 1200
Cost: 1000Benefit: 27
Cost: 1200Benefit: 29
Cost: 1000Benefit: 25
Select by highest benefit COSTTOTAL BENEFITTOTAL
B 500 13 500 13A 400 10 900 23D 300 6 1200 29E 200 5 1400 34C 100 4 1500 38
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Portfolio Selection
PROJECT COST BENEFIT RATIOA 400 10 0.025B 500 13 0.026C 100 4 0.040D 300 6 0.020E 200 5 0.025
Select by Benefit to Cost ratio COSTTOTAL BENEFITTOTAL
C 100 4 100 4B 500 13 600 17E 200 5 800 22A 400 10 1200 32D 300 6 1500 38
Cost: 1200Benefit: 32
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Graphical Comparison Based on Two Criteria
GO
CAUTION
TERMINATE
BE
NE
FIT
Risk
Hig
hM
ediu
mLo
w
High Medium Low
PMBOK®
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Multifunction Selection
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A B CObj 1 2 2 3Obj 2 3 2 2Obj 3 1 3 2Obj 4 1 3 2Obj 5 3 2 2Total 10 12 11
Weight A B CObj 1 5 10 10 15Obj 2 10 30 20 20Obj 3 5 5 15 10Obj 4 1 1 3 2Obj 5 5 15 10 10Total 61 58 57
Weight A B CObj 1 10 20 20 30Obj 2 5 15 10 10Obj 3 3 3 9 6Obj 4 5 5 15 10Obj 5 5 15 10 10Total 58 64 66
WeightObj 1 5Obj 2 10Obj 3 5Obj 4 1Obj 5 5Total
WeightObj 1 10Obj 2 5Obj 3 3Obj 4 5Obj 5 5Total
Rating from 1 (min) to 3 (max) Score = Weight times rating
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Multifunction Selection
A B C DObj 1 10 7 1 2Obj 2 8 3 1 2Obj 3 7 4 2 3Obj 4 0 3 2 2Obj 5 4 6 0 6Total 29 23 6 15Cost 1000 1000 300 700
Budget: 2000
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Multifunction Selection
A B C D TotalObj 1 10 7 17Obj 2 8 3 11Obj 3 7 4 11Obj 4 0 3 3Obj 5 4 6 10Total 29 23 52Cost 1000 1000 2000
A B C D TotalObj 1 10 1 2 13Obj 2 8 1 2 11Obj 3 7 2 3 12Obj 4 0 2 2 4Obj 5 4 0 6 10Total 29 6 15 50Cost 1000 300 700 2000
A B C D TotalObj 1 7 1 2 10Obj 2 3 1 2 6Obj 3 4 2 3 9Obj 4 3 2 2 7Obj 5 6 0 6 12Total 23 6 15 44Cost 1000 300 700 2000 29
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Multifunction Selection
Selection Criteria 10 is maximum
value for any objective
A B C D TotalObj 1 10 7 17 10Obj 2 8 3 11 10Obj 3 7 4 11 10Obj 4 0 3 3 3Obj 5 4 6 10 6Total 29 23 52 39Cost 1000 1000 2000
A B C D TotalObj 1 10 1 2 13 10Obj 2 8 1 2 11 10Obj 3 7 2 3 12 10Obj 4 0 2 2 4 4Obj 5 4 0 6 10 10Total 29 6 15 50 44Cost 1000 300 700 2000
A B C D TotalObj 1 7 1 2 10 10Obj 2 3 1 2 6 6Obj 3 4 2 3 9 9Obj 4 3 2 2 7 7Obj 5 6 0 6 12 10Total 23 6 15 44 42Cost 1000 300 700 2000
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Multifunction Selection
Selection Criteria 10 is maximum
value Total must score
at least 5 for each objective
A B C D TotalObj 1 10 7 17 10Obj 2 8 3 11 10Obj 3 7 4 11 10Obj 4 0 3 3 3Obj 5 4 6 10 6Total 29 23 52 39Cost 1000 1000 2000
A B C D TotalObj 1 10 1 2 13 10Obj 2 8 1 2 11 10Obj 3 7 2 3 12 10Obj 4 0 2 2 4 4Obj 5 4 0 6 10 10Total 29 6 15 50 44Cost 1000 300 700 2000
A B C D TotalObj 1 7 1 2 10 10Obj 2 3 1 2 6 6Obj 3 4 2 3 9 9Obj 4 3 2 2 7 7Obj 5 6 0 6 12 10Total 23 6 15 44 42Cost 1000 300 700 2000
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The Basic Questions
How much should we invest in IT? How should we allocate the IT investment
budget? How do we know whether we’ve made the
right decision?
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Did we get what we paid for…?
Year afterProjectCompletion
Net Benefit
Planned
Actual
The key: Know the baseline
Know how to measure performance 33
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Practical Exercise
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Practical Exercise- IRMC Electronics
Maker of Information Technology Products. The following data represents the results of its Data Server Division.
Note: all $ in 000,000.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Revenue 190$ 220$ 260$ 260$ 270$ Profit 19$ 20$ 24$ 23$ 22$
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Practical Exercise- Competition The Data Server Division has two major
competitors, SMNS and LECANT.
Note: all $ in 000,000.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009IRMC-E 190$ 220$ 260$ 260$ 270$ SMNS 30$ 40$ 60$ 80$ 100$ LECANT 20$ 50$ 65$ 55$ 100$ Total 240$ 310$ 385$ 395$ 470$
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Practical Exercise- Product Segment
The market for data servers is divided into three segments: high-end, mid-range and low-end.
Note: all $ in 000,000.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009High End 25% 23% 25% 26% 33%Mid Range 29% 35% 35% 34% 31%Low End 46% 41% 40% 39% 36%
Revenue Profit ReturnHigh End 27$ 4$ 15%Mid Range 90$ 11$ 12%Low End 153$ 7$ 5%Total 270$ 22$ 8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009High End 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%Mid Range 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%Low End 37% 42% 47% 52% 57%
Product Distribution- IRMC-E
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Low EndMid RangeHigh End
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Practical Exercise- Corporate Objectives IRMC-E Strategic Objectives for the next three
years: Meet or exceed the company’s internal rate of
return of 15%. Maintain leadership in market segment Establish a significant presence in emerging
international markets Reduce key technical and managerial turnover Regain reputation for technical excellence
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Practical Exercise- the Investment Choices
Engineering has developed a business case proposing an investment of $1,000k to develop a high-end server to be delivered in 12 months.
Manufacturing has developed a business case proposing an investment to reduce manufacturing costs. This investment would cost $500K.
Projected financial comparisons are to be developed using the standard IRMC-E cost analysis form and the data provided by Manufacturing and Engineering/Marketing.
You are the IRMC-Electronics Data Server Division Investment Review Committee (IDSDIRC). You are to recommend which of these two investments to approve.
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Financial Comparison
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IRMC-Electronics Cost Analysis Form
IRR: 15%
Year: 0 1 2 3 4
Option 1: Manufacturing ImprovementInvestment $ 500.0 Savings $ - $ 50.0 $ 150.0 $ 150.0 $ 150.0 Net: $ (500.0) $ 50.0 $ 150.0 $ 150.0 $ 150.0
NPV =
Option 2: New productInvestment $ 1,000 Net Profit Increase: $ 50 $ 250 $ 500 $ 1,000 Net: $ (1,000) $ 50 $ 250 $ 500 $ 1,000
NPV=
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Evaluation
New Server
Improved Mfr Other
Financial analysis
Mkt Ldrshp
Emerging Mkts
HR Turnover
Tech Reputation
Score
Risk Rating
Recommended (Y/N)
Facts
Assumptions: 41
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Challenge
I’m the boss: Convince me!
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Thoughts for Consideration
What triggers the need for a new investment? Does this affect the case study?
Is selling an IT investment any different than selling other types of investments?
Are the risks the same for a Government investment and a commercial investment?
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Challenges Do we really achieve our ROI’s? Do we really achieve our non-financial
objectives? Linking IT investment to Corporate objectives is
still as much an art as a science. Focus on quarterly results can skew judgments.
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Questions?
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