Battery MicrocontrollerESC Decision-Support Tool for ... · Vertical Takeoff & Landing Responsive &...

46
Frame Motor Propeller Battery ESC Microcontroller Quadcopter Hexacopter Octocopter Sponsor Lance Sherry, CATSR Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research Center for Air Transportation Systems Research D ecision- S upport T ool for Designing Niche S mall P ackage D elivery A erial V ehicles Authors Ashruf Ali Nathan Ballou Brad McDougall Jorge Luis Valle

Transcript of Battery MicrocontrollerESC Decision-Support Tool for ... · Vertical Takeoff & Landing Responsive &...

Page 1: Battery MicrocontrollerESC Decision-Support Tool for ... · Vertical Takeoff & Landing Responsive & Easy Directional Change 5 Fixed Pitch & Plug-n-Play Repairs ... market growth.

Frame Motor Propeller

Battery ESC Microcontroller

Quadcopter Hexacopter Octocopter

Sponsor

Lance Sherry, CATSR Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

Decision-Support Tool for Designing Niche

Small Package Delivery Aerial Vehicles

Authors

Ashruf Ali

Nathan Ballou

Brad McDougall

Jorge Luis Valle

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Agenda Context / Overview Multi-Rotor Aerial Vehicles

Niche Package Delivery Applications

Problem & Vision Statement

Stakeholder Analysis

Method of Analysis

Mission / Functional / Input / Output Requirements

DST Overview: Power and Dynamic Models

DST Validation

Case Study: GMU Restaurant Concept of Operations

Assumptions & Requirements

Utility Analysis

Business Case Analysis

2

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Multi-Rotor Aerial Vehicles

DST for Designing NSPDAV

3

Hexacopter Octocopter Quadcopter

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Multi-rotor Configuration Configuration

Propellers

Motors

Battery

Frame (Chassis)

Electronic Speed Controller

(ESC)

Microcontroller

4

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Multi-Rotor Capabilities

Small

Easy piloting

Attainable

Inexpensive

Agile

VTOL

Hover

Maintainable

Safe

Max Size (tip-to-tip): 1-10 ft

Programmable Flight Path

COTS: Commercial Off-the-Shelf

Price Range: $500-50,000

Maneuverable Vertically & Horizontally

Vertical Takeoff & Landing

Responsive & Easy Directional Change

5

Fixed Pitch & Plug-n-Play Repairs

Less kinetic energy during flight

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Package Delivery Methods

6

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Traditional Method Multi-rotor SPDAV

Delivery Costs Initial: Vehicle Initial: Multi-rotor

Recurring: Employee Wage &

Vehicle Maitenace

Recurring: Multirotor Maitenance

Between

Delivery Costs

Fixed: None Fixed: None

Recurring: Employee Wage Recurring: None

Area of Operation Limited to roads and sidewalks Limited to 500ft of airspace

Reliability At the whim of human error Known MTBFs for Multi-rotor parts

-Multi-rotor SPDAVs have no costs while not delivering payload and provide a

nearly unrestricted Area of Operation.

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Big Applications – Big R&D Resources

Amazon: Prime Air DHL: Parcelcopter

7

Google: Project Wing

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

www.amazon.com/b?node=8037720011 http://www.dhl.com/en/press/releas

es/releases_2014/group/dhl_parcel

copter_launches_initial_operations

_for_research_purposes.html

http://www.wired.com/2014/08/google-reveals

-project-wing-its-two-year-effort-to-build-delivery-drones/

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Niche Package Delivery Applications

Market Application

Maintenance Just-in-time spare parts delivery

Medicine Medical supply delivery

Warehouse Real-time asset repositioning

Retail Rapid delivery for non brick & mortar

purchases.

Food Rapid takeout delivery

Remote Supplies Delivery to areas with minimal traditional

infrastructure.

8

Niche Service Providers do not have the expertise to design multi-rotors.

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Niche Application Issues: Complex Design Space

-No single multi-rotor is optimal for every scenario.

-This is a complex design decision with non-linearities in the design-space.

9

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Problem & Vision Statement

10

There is a market wide knowledge gap pertaining to

performance and mission suitability of Multi-Rotor Aircraft.

Design a decision-support tool that considers an end user’s

requirements and determines the most effective Multi-Rotor

Configuration for their particular application.

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Stakeholder Analysis Class Stakeholder Goals Tensions

Prim

ary

1. Service Provider

2. Multi-rotor

Manufacturers

1. Receive a configuration

recommendation based on

their own requirements.

2. Maximize profit through sale

of product.

1. Issues with rules/regulations

implemented by the FAA that they

must follow.

2. Possible loss of profit by end users

using the Decision-Support Tool.

FAA rules/regulations restricting

market growth.

Se

co

nda

ry/ Te

rtia

ry

1. Citizens

2. Low-Altitude Air Traffic

3. Airspace Regulators

(FAA)

4. Customer of Service

Provider

1. Maintain a safe

environment.

2. Maintain a safe airspace to

travel in and minimize all

possible risks.

1. To keep the NAS safe and

well regulated.

1. Have the ability to benefit

from the service providers

SPDAV

1. Issues with rules/regulations for

Commercial UAS may arise between

them and the FAA.

2. Safety concerns with the air traffic

may be had with the FAA.

3. Being held accountable for any

issues that arise with the

rules/regulations.

4. Burden from the costs of new

technology might be placed heavily

on customers of service providers

11

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Stakeholder Interactions: Win-Win

(1)

DST-SPDAV

(2)

Service Provider

(3)

UAS Manufactures

(4)

Airspace Regulators

Citizens

Air Traffic

Enable service

provider to select

the right multi-rotor

aircraft.

More accurately

inform design

decisions

New regulations and

feedback will help to

improve the DST.

By providing the best

multi-rotor aircraft,

safety and reliability

increase.

More commercial

opportunities

12

DST for Designing NSPDAV

(5)

Customer of Service Provider

Enhanced Service

Increased Profit

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Agenda

13

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

Context / Overview Multi-Rotor Aerial Vehicles

Niche Package Delivery Applications

Problem & Vision Statement

Stakeholder Analysis

Method of Analysis

Mission / Functional / Input / Output Requirements

DST Overview: Power and Dynamic Models

DST Validation

Case Study: GMU Restaurant Concept of Operations

Assumptions & Requirements

Utility Analysis

Business Case Analysis

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Mission Requirements

14

MR # Requirement Description

MR1 The DST-SPDAV shall recommend configurations of pre-

existing multi rotor aircrafts that will be able to carry a user-

defined payload for a certain distance over a default flight

profile.

MR2 The DST-SPDAV shall recommend pre-existing configurations

of multi- rotor aircrafts that are reliable and operate at a high

performance.

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Functional Requirements

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FR # Requirement Description

FR1 The DST-SPDAV shall implement a power consumption model which

evaluates the steady-state performance of battery, motor, and propeller

combinations to determine systems that satisfy the users’ requirements.

FR2 The DST-SPDAV shall evaluate satisfactory pre-existing configurations

in a full dynamic model to account for airframe aerodynamics and

default flight profiles in order to recommend configurations.

FR3 The DST- SPDAV shall present multiple recommendations ranked by

the user-defined weights to allow for cost vs utility analysis.

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Input Requirements

IR # Requirement Description

IR1 The DST-SPDAV shall input minimum flight distance.

IR2 The DST-SPDAV shall input payload range.

IR3 The DST-SPDAV shall input the maximum size of the multi-rotor aircraft.

16

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Output Requirements:

17

OR # Requirement Description

OR1 The DST-SPDAV shall output data showing the relationship

between payload versus distance in order to be evaluated for

utility analysis.

OR2 The DST-SPDAV shall output data showing the relationship

between payload versus speed in order to be evaluated for

utility analysis.

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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DST Functionality Diagram

18

DST for Designing NSPDAV

DST-NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Multi-rotor Free Body Diagram:

Source: Quad-Rotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Helicopter Modeling & Control

19

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Power Model: Inputs

Batteries Motors Propellers

(1) Capacity (mAh) (1) Kv (rpm/v) (1) Size

(2) Output Voltage (2) Weight (2) Prop Constant

(3) Max Discharge (3) Max Current (3) Power Factor

(4) Weight (4) Size (4) Weight

(5) Size (5) Max Voltage

20

DST for Designing NSPDAV

-Multi-rotor components from Database needed for Power Analysis

-Payload range from end-user

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Power Model: Thrust and Power Relationship

T =

1/3

p

22D rP2é

ëêù

ûúP = PropConst *

PowerFactor

rpm

rpm =Kv*Battery_volts

A

Hover

thrust=mg

DST for Designing NSPDAV

21 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

Source: Leishman, Principles of Helicopter Aerodynamics, 2002

Max Thrust Produced

by a Single Motor

thrust

mg

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Dynamic Model Inputs

Flight Profile

-Solid: Flight with payload

-Dashed: Return flight w/o payload

-Speed: 80% throttle

-Altitude:350ft

Distance

Altitude

22

DST for Designing NSPDAV

-Pre-existing Configurations from Power Model

-Minimum Distance to travel

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

Default Flight Profile

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Dynamic Model: Geometry and Moments of Inertia

For each component

Rotation Matrix Modeled as simple solids

Source: Mansson, Model-based

Design Development and Control of a

Wind Resistant Multirotor UAV, 2014

23

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Dynamic Model: Battery and Velocity Relationship

Hover velocity as a function of thrust using momentum theory

A

TVh

2

A = 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑝𝑡 𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑏𝑦 𝑟𝑜𝑡𝑜𝑟 (𝑚2)

𝜌 = density of air (1.225kg

𝑚3 )

𝑇 = 𝑇ℎ𝑟𝑢𝑠𝑡 (𝑁)

24

Source: Leishman, Principles of Helicopter Aerodynamics, 2002

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Multi-rotor Battery VS Time

Max time

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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DST Validation Approach Check for basic functionality by comparing our thrust and power calculations for a configuration versus reliable experimental data.

-Configuration used: Hacker A30-10XL V3, 50A ESC, 4S2P 10000 mAh

-Propellers used: 13x6 APC, 11x6 APC, 11x6 Master Airscrew

Utilized static performance values of a single rotor from a study:

Propulsive System Optimization for a Unmanned Lightweight Multirotor

25

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Thrust & Power: DST vs Experimental 13x6

APC

RPM Experimental Value Experimental Value Calculated Value % Error Calcualted Value % Error

4000 540 77 533.2 1.3% 78.74797808 2%

5000 870 139 860.1 1.1% 149.7541499 8%

6000 1300 240 1278.2 1.7% 251.9577462 5%

7000 1780 345 1732.8 2.7% 368.9757116 7%

8000 2300 500 2237.7 2.7% 535.4084598 7%

11x6

APC

RPM Experimental Value Experimental Value Calculated Value % Error Calcualted Value % Error

4000 350 49.3 340.6 2.7% 50.71154535 3%

5000 514 86.9 497.6 3.2% 93.96503289 8%

6000 738 140.5 716.0 3.0% 145.4464136 4%

7000 1000 197.9 950.1 5.0% 214.8534171 9%

8000 1330 299.8 1305.5 1.8% 311.6385688 4%

11x6 Master Airscrew

RPM Experimental Value Experimental Value Calculated Value % Error Calcualted Value % Error

4000 328 45.152 318.4 2.9% 47.02786077 4%

5000 486 74.0775 481.6 0.9% 79.12783442 7%

6000 740 122.6159 732.7 1.0% 134.2580536 9%

7000 950 176.375 930.3 2.1% 182.4279857 3%

8000 1300 293.2058 1260.9 3.0% 307.7366684 5%

26

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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0

1000

2000

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000Thru

st (g

)

RPM

11x6" Master Airscrew Thrust Comparison

Experimental Value Calculated Value

0

500

1000

1500

4000 5000 6000 7000

Thru

st (g

)

RPM

11x6" APC Thrust Comparison

Experimental Value Calculated Value

0

1000

2000

3000

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Thru

st (g

)

RPM

13x6" APC Thrust Comparison

Experimental Value Calculated Value

27

DST for Designing NSPDAV

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Err

or

RPM

11x6" Master Airscrew Thrust % Error

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Err

or

RPM

11x6" APC Thrust % Error

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Err

or

RPM

13x6" APC Thrust % Error

3% Thrust Error

5% Thrust Error

3% Thrust Error

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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0

200

400

600

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Pow

er

(W)

RPM

13x6" APC Power Comparison

Experimental Value Calcualted Value

0

100

200

300

400

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

11x6" APC Power Comparison

Experimental Value Calcualted Value

0

200

400

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Pow

er

(W)

RPM

11x6" Master Airscrew Power Compaison

Experimental Value Calcualted Value

28

DST for Designing NSPDAV

10% Power Error

8% Power Error

8% Power Error

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Err

or

RPM

11x6" Master Airscrew % Error

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Err

or

RPM

11x6" APC Power % Error

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Err

or

RPM

13x6" APC Power % Error

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Agenda

29

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

Context / Overview Multi-Rotor Aerial Vehicles

Niche Package Delivery Applications

Problem & Vision Statement

Stakeholder Analysis

Method of Analysis

Mission / Functional / Input / Output Requirements

DST Overview: Power and Dynamic Models

DST Validation

Case Study: GMU Restaurant Concept of Operations

Assumptions & Requirements

Utility Analysis

Business Case Analysis

Page 30: Battery MicrocontrollerESC Decision-Support Tool for ... · Vertical Takeoff & Landing Responsive & Easy Directional Change 5 Fixed Pitch & Plug-n-Play Repairs ... market growth.

Case Study: Multi-rotor Delivery

DST for Designing NSPDAV

30 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Case Study: Assumptions

DST for Designing NSPDAV

31

Multi-Rotor

-Autonomous flight.

-Pre-determined flight paths

for each delivery destination.

-Live video feedback.

-Modified for payload attachment.

Service Provider

-One multi-rotor will be adequate for

the amount of demand.

-Have necessary equipment to

support flight monitoring.

-Minimum wage worker capable of

maintaining and interchanging

batteries.

Federal Aviation Administration

-Rules/Regulations for small commercial UAVs allow for this application.

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Case Study: Requirements

-Payload from 1-4Kg.

-Minimum distance of 2Km

(4 Km round-trip).

-Maximum Width of 1700 mm

(from tip to tip).

-Weights for objective function.

DST for Designing NSPDAV

2 foot-long subs & 2 bags of chips

or 2 large pizzas

Diameter of GMU’s Fairfax campus:

roughly 1 mile

Width of Multi-rotor access point

inside business : 6 feet

Comparison Survey evaluated with

Swing Weights Method

32 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Case Study: Multi-rotors Evaluated

Model Rotors Total

Weight (g)

Battery

(mAh) Propeller

Motor

(Kv)

Width

(mm)

MTBF

(hr)

DJI-S800 6 4400 15000 (6S) 15x4” APC 415 1180 100

FAE-960H 6 9500 2x16000

(4S) 18x6” APC 480 1420 160

X8-HLM 8 3250 10000 (4S) 10x4.7” APC 440 1350 150

OFM-GQ8 8 6500 16000 (6S) 17x5.8” APC 420 1530 160

HL 48 8 7800 16000 (6S) 15x4” APC 520 1450 160

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

33

Page 34: Battery MicrocontrollerESC Decision-Support Tool for ... · Vertical Takeoff & Landing Responsive & Easy Directional Change 5 Fixed Pitch & Plug-n-Play Repairs ... market growth.

y = -0.005x3 + 0.0608x2 - 0.5114x + 3.4056 R² = 0.9977

y = -0.0264x3 + 0.1995x2 - 1.2324x + 4.4376 R² = 0.9997

y = -0.0823x3 + 0.4031x2 - 1.2889x + 4.4071 R² = 0.9943

y = -0.003x3 + 0.0643x2 - 0.7845x + 5.2075 R² = 0.9999

y = -0.0144x3 + 0.1283x2 - 0.9933x + 5.6768 R² = 0.9998

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Dis

tan

ce (

km)

Payload (kg)

Payload vs Distance (Curve fitted)

HL48 X8-HLM DJI-S800 OFM GQ8 FAE 960H

Poly. (HL48) Poly. (X8-HLM) Poly. (DJI-S800) Poly. (OFM GQ8) Poly. (FAE 960H)

DST for Designing NSPDAV

34

Page 35: Battery MicrocontrollerESC Decision-Support Tool for ... · Vertical Takeoff & Landing Responsive & Easy Directional Change 5 Fixed Pitch & Plug-n-Play Repairs ... market growth.

y = -0.005x3 + 0.0608x2 - 0.5114x + 3.4056 R² = 0.9977

y = -0.003x3 + 0.0643x2 - 0.7845x + 5.2075 R² = 0.9999

y = -0.0144x3 + 0.1283x2 - 0.9933x + 5.6768 R² = 0.9998

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Dis

tan

ce (

km)

Payload (kg)

Payload vs Distance (Curve fitted)

HL48 OFM GQ8 FAE 960H Poly. (HL48) Poly. (OFM GQ8) Poly. (FAE 960H)

DST for Designing NSPDAV

35

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y = -0.1244x3 + 1.0364x2 - 3.5239x + 42.367 R² = 0.9831

y = -0.0319x3 + 0.2116x2 - 1.292x + 45.25 R² = 0.9981

y = -0.1533x3 + 0.7787x2 - 2.4989x + 34.776 R² = 0.9976

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Spe

ed

(K

m/h

)

Payload (kg)

Payload vs Speed (Curve fitted)

HL48 OFM GQ8 FAE 960H Poly. (HL48) Poly. (OFM GQ8) Poly. (FAE 960H)

DST for Designing NSPDAV

36

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Case Study: Multi-rotors Evaluated

• For a payload range between 1 Kg and 4 Kg.

Model

Average

Distance

(Km)

Average

Velocity

(Km/h)

Rotors Total

Weight (g)

Battery

(mAh) Propeller

Motor

(Kv)

FAE-960H 3.8 30.3 6 9500 2x16000

(4S) 18x6” APC 480

OFM-GQ8 3.7 42.8 8 6500 16000

(6S) 17x5.8” APC 420

HL 48 2.5 38.3 8 7800 16000

(6S) 15x4” APC 520

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Utility Analysis

Utility

Distance (w1)

0.365

Speed (w2)

0.365

Size (w3)

0.090

Maintenance (w4)

0.180

Distance Speed Size MTBF Utility Score

FAE-960H 0.95 0.67 0.16 1.00 0.786

OFM-GQ8 0.93 0.95 0.10 1.00 0.875

HL 48 0.63 0.85 0.15 1.00 0.734

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Utility vs. Cost Analysis

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000

Uti

lity

Cost

FAE-960H

OFM-GQ8

HL48

DST for Designing NSPDAV

UTILITY =w1 *DISTANCE+w2 *SPEED+w3 *SIZE+w4 *MTBF

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Page 40: Battery MicrocontrollerESC Decision-Support Tool for ... · Vertical Takeoff & Landing Responsive & Easy Directional Change 5 Fixed Pitch & Plug-n-Play Repairs ... market growth.

Business Case Analysis Estimating Demand

Undergraduate Population 22,000

Living on Campus (27%) 5,940

Ordering delivery or taking out food (24%) 1,426

Only delivery (46%) 656

2-3 Deliveries per week on average 1,639

Deliveries per day for the entire market 234

Market Share – Number of deliveries per day

10% - 23 deliveries 11% - 26 deliveries 12% - 28 deliveries

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Source: Viggle-IAB Ordering Food Goes Mobile Survey, January 10, 2013.

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

40

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Business Case Analysis – Delivery Person

Daily Revenue for delivery– Delivery fee $2

10% - 23 deliveries 11% - 26 deliveries 12% - 28 deliveries

$46 $52 $56

Daily Profit or Loss

($18) ($12) ($8)

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Cost of Delivery Person

Hours worked per day 8

Hourly rate $8

Cost per day $64

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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DST for Designing NSPDAV

Delivery

fee $2

y = -18x

y = -12x

y = -8x

-$14,000.00

-$12,000.00

-$10,000.00

-$8,000.00

-$6,000.00

-$4,000.00

-$2,000.00

$-1

19

37

55

73

91

10

9

12

7

14

5

16

3

18

1

19

9

21

7

23

5

25

3

27

1

28

9

30

7

32

5

34

3

36

1

37

9

39

7

41

5

43

3

45

1

46

9

48

7

50

5

52

3

54

1

55

9

57

7

59

5

61

3

63

1

64

9

66

7

68

5

70

3

Days

Profit Working with Delivery Person

Profit - 10%

Profit - 11%

Profit - 12%

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

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Business Case Analysis – Multi rotor Aircraft

Daily Revenue – Delivery fee $5

$115 $130 $140

Daily Profit or Loss

$20 $35 $45

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Cost of Multi rotor Aircraft

Cost of Aircraft + Batteries $13,499

Cost of Motors + Battery $1900

MTBF 160 hours

Hourly Cost of Use $11.88

Daily Cost

10% - 23 deliveries 11% - 26 deliveries 12% - 28 deliveries

$4.13/delivery $3.65/delivery $3.39/delivery

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

43

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DST for Designing NSPDAV

Delivery

fee $5

y = 20x - 13499

y = 35x - 13499

y = 45x - 13499

-$20,000.00

-$15,000.00

-$10,000.00

-$5,000.00

$-

$5,000.00

$10,000.00

$15,000.00

$20,000.00

$25,000.001

19

37

55

73

91

10

9

12

7

14

5

16

3

18

1

19

9

21

7

23

5

25

3

27

1

28

9

30

7

32

5

34

3

36

1

37

9

39

7

41

5

43

3

45

1

46

9

48

7

50

5

52

3

54

1

55

9

57

7

59

5

61

3

63

1

64

9

66

7

68

5

70

3

Days

Profit Working with Multirotor Aircraft

Profit - 10%

Profit - 11%

Profit - 12%

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

44

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Conclusion and Recommendations

Case Study: -The octocopter OFM-GQ8 is the best option due to its range and fast speed.

-If market share is lower than 10%, buying a multirotor aircraft for delivery would not be recommendable.

-If working with a multirotor aircraft, the delivery fee can be decreased if the market share increases.

In General: -An expensive multi-rotor aircraft will not always offer the highest utility value. Any level of evaluation is not intuitive.

-Since end users present different requirements, a market evaluation is needed in order to assure viability and profitability of using a multi-rotor.

-If demand grows too large for one multi-rotor to handle, a queuing simulation would be needed to calculate the amount of necessary multi-rotors.

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

45

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Questions?

46

DST for Designing NSPDAV

Sponsor

Supporters

Lance Sherry, CATSR

Bo Pollet, Aurora Flight Sciences

Ranga Nuggehalli, UPS

Matthew Bieschke, NEXA Capital

UAS America

Authors

Ashruf Ali

Nathan Ballou

Brad McDougall

Jorge Luis Valle

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Center for Air Transportation Systems Research

Special Thanks To

Christopher Vo

Ryan Ramseyer