Baton Rouge Apartment Trends 2011Condo Developments –Built since 2006 • There have been 2,100+...
Transcript of Baton Rouge Apartment Trends 2011Condo Developments –Built since 2006 • There have been 2,100+...
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Baton Rouge Apartment Trends 2011
Presented by:
D. Wesley Moore, II, MAI, CCIM
April 21st, 2011
Assisted by:
Sean McDonald, Craig Davenport, Abby McMasters,
Elise Moore, Tim Kleinpeter & Alexis Martin
with Cook, Moore & Associates Real Estate Appraisers
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What Will Be Presented?• Factors affecting Rental Housing Demand
• Trends in Rents & Vacancies
• Recent & Pending Construction of Apartments & Condos
• Recent Sales of Apartment Complexes
• What’s Ahead
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Apartment Rental & Vacancy Trends - Snapshot
• Rentals for a matched sample of 111 local complexes increased 1.8% from Fall 2009 to Fall 2010 (up from 0.8% from the Fall 2008 to Fall 2009 period). The norm in 2001-05 was 1% to 2% increases annually.
• Vacancies for this same sample were reported at 6.9% in Fall 2010, up from 2.5% in Fall 2008 (and 6% in Spring 2005, prior to Hurricane Katrina)
• BR Apt Association reported 6.4% citywide vacancy in January 2011 (up from 2.1% in January 2009)
• Concessions? Remain common, particularly for more upscale properties. Between 2 and 8 weeks waived rents (and/or electronics, cruises, etc.) when signing a 1-year lease remains typical.
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Factors
• We remain in a period of economic uncertainty. National employment trends
have adversely affected job numbers in Baton Rouge.
• December 2010 job counts for the Baton Rouge metro area were up only 200
(0.1%) from December 2009, while the figures for LA and the Nation were
both up 1.0% over the same period
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Factors
• Despite national trends, the population of East Baton Rouge Parish still
increased 0.2% (731 people) from 2009 to 2010
• And the metro area population is up over 57,000 people (7.25%+) since
July 2005, which should support, statistically, absorption of over 6,200
new rental units (based on 2.75 pph and 30% renter allocation)
• The potential for the area to lose thousands of state government jobs
continues to loom large
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Factors
• The diminished availability of mortgage financing for home purchases
(particularly in the subprime lending realm) continues to slow the
transition of renters to home ownership, resulting in greater tenant
retention.
• Tenants lacking a strong credit rating, income history and/or assets for
down payment have difficulty in securing mortgage financing and
graduating to home ownership.
• The diminished flow of renters into ownership appears to have a been a
notable catalyst for absorption of the incoming units without the
magnitude of adverse effects on economic occupancies and rentals for
apartments I thought may have otherwise been inevitable.
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Local Stats
Relevant Stats affecting real estate demand in BR:
1. Population growth in the BR MSA (increased 5.5% following Hurricanes
Katrina & Rita, but increases through 2013 are expected to be less than
1.0% annually)
2. At the end of 2010, job counts in BR MSA were still up roughly 18,400
jobs (a 5% increase) from 351,700 in August 2005 (when Katrina hit), but
are expected to be flat or declining in 2011 (though recovery is
technically underway, further job losses may occur locally & nationally).
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Apartment Rental Trends
• Rentals had historically increased 1% to 3% annually from 1995 to 2005
• Rentals increased roughly 10% from Spring 2005 to Spring 2006,
predominantly attributable to the “Katrina Effect”
• Average rents for all units still increased an average of 3.6% from Fall
2007 to Fall 2008, despite the national recession
• Average rents for all units increased an average of only 0.1% from Fall
2008 to Fall 2009
• Average rents for all units increased an average of 1.8% from Fall 2009 to
Fall 2010
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Apartment Vacancies
• BRAA reported 7.9% citywide vacancy in Jan 2005
• BRAA reported 6.4% Citywide vacancy in Jan 2011 (up materially from
2.1% reported in Jan 2009)
• LSU/CMA Fall 2010 Matched Sample Survey of 111 complexes reported
overall vacancy of 6.1% (consistent with the 6% reported in Spring 2005).
The 165-complex larger survey reported 6.9% vacancy.
• Quoted occupancies still likely overstate effective/economic occupancies
(net of concessionary discounts)
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Rental Units Built 2006-2010
Total
2006-10
Conventional 3,386
Upscale Student 421
Affordable Housing (LIHTC) 1,035
Total 4,842
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Rental Units Underway/Planned 2011-2012
Underway Planned Total
Conventional 224 234 458
Upscale Student 348 291 639
Affordable Housing
144 31 175
Total 716 556 1,272
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Conventional & Student Units
completed in 2010
• Complexes Completed in 2010
– Cottages of Baton Rouge
• 159 (1st Phase) of 382 upscale student units on Ben Hur Road off
Nicholson Drive
• Conventional financing
• Developer: Capstone (Birmingham, AL)
– Villages at Juban Lakes
• 144 upscale units on Buddy Ellis Road in Denham Springs
• HUD 221(d)4 financing
• Developer: Tom Delahaye (Plaquemine, LA)
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Cottages of Baton Rouge
Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
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Village at Juban Lakes
Buddy Ellis Road off Juban Road
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Village at Juban Lakes
Buddy Ellis Road off Juban Road
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Village at Juban Lakes
Buddy Ellis Road off Juban Road
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Village at Juban Lakes
Buddy Ellis Road off Juban Road
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Village at Juban Lakes
Buddy Ellis Road off Juban Road
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Village at Juban Lakes
Buddy Ellis Road off Juban Road
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Village at Juban Lakes
Buddy Ellis Road off Juban Road
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Village at Juban Lakes
Buddy Ellis Road off Juban Road
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Village at Juban Lakes
Buddy Ellis Road off Juban Road
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Village at Juban Lakes
Buddy Ellis Road off Juban Road
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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The Parc at Denham Springs
LA Hwy 16 South off LA Hwy 64
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Conventional Complexes Under Construction
• Complexes Under Construction in 2011
– Cottages of Baton Rouge
• 223 (2nd Phase) upscale student units on Ben Hur Road off Nicholson
• Conventional financing
• Developer: Capstone (Birmingham, AL)
– Aspen Heights
• 125 upscale student units on River Road & Brightside Lane
• Conventional financing
• Developer: Breckenridge Group (TX)
– The Parc at Denham
• 224 upscale units at 31092 LA Hwy 16 in Denham Springs
• HUD 221(d)4 financing
• Developer: Apartment Development Services
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Affordable (LIHTC) Complexes Completed in 2010
• LIHTC Complexes Completed in 2010
– Oakwood Terrace
• 60 Scattered-Site LITHC units (rental houses) off Mickens Road
• Developer: Bowen Arnold (Florida)
– Fullerton Estates
• 22 Scattered-Site LITHC units (rental houses) off Plank Road
• Developer: Jeff Beaver
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Affordable (LIHTC) Complexes Under Construction
• LIHTC Complexes Under Construction in 2011
– Hooper Springs
• 48 LITHC units off Hooper Road
• Developer: CDI (Idaho)
– Scott Elementary
• 60 LITHC Single-Room Occupancy (SRO) units at 900 North 19th Street
• Developer: Gulf Coast Housing Partners
– GHCP One Stop
• 36 LITHC Single-Room Occupancy (SRO) units at 153 North 17th Street
• Developer: Gulf Coast Housing Partners
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Oakwood TerraceMickens Road west of Hooper Road
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Oakwood TerraceMickens Road west of Hooper Road
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Oakwood TerraceMickens Road west of Hooper Road
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Oakwood TerraceMickens Road west of Hooper Road
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Oakwood TerraceMickens Road west of Hooper Road
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Oakwood TerraceMickens Road west of Hooper Road
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Proposed Complexes – Planned (not underway)
• Upscale Complexes proposed for 2012-13
– Woodlands
• 291 upscale conventional/student units on Ben Hur off Nicholson
• Developer: Dovetail Companies
– River House (formerly University Village)
• 208 upscale units on Nicholson at Oklahoma (former Prince Murat)
– Rouzon
• 30 upscale units off Perkins Road near Glascow
• Developer: JTS (Baton Rouge)
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Proposed Complexes – Planned (not underway)
• Affordable Complexes proposed for 2012-13
– Bellhaven Trace
• 31 affordable units along Wooddale Boulevard
• Developer: Trilateral Development
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Condo Developments – Built since 2006
• There have been 2,100+ units in 35+ condo developments
built since 2006, including (to mention a few) -
– The Crescent at University Lake (165 units, Mike Wampold)
– Fieldhouse Gameday Condos (99 units, Capstone)
– Victory Commons (52 units, Quadrants)
– Stone Lake (120 units, RW Day)
– Juban Court (96 units, Business Investment Group)
– Summer Grove (72 units, Greg Flores)
– Arlington Trace (74 units, Greg Flores/Crown Construction)
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Notable Condo Conversions
• Recent condo conversions (all of which have reverted some
units back to rentals) include:
– The Blox at Brightside (104 units, Donnie Jarreau)
– Jeffersonian (33 units, Alan Walsh)
– Jefferson Place (234 units, John Fetzer, Hardy Swyers & Alan Walsh)
– Courtyard Orleans (95 units, formerly Bengal Apartments, Whitten
Foundation)
– Courtyard Condos (32 units, formerly The Forum, Gregg Cordaro)
– View Carre’ Condos (74 units, formerly Brittany Place, Johnny Mann
& Frank Sagnibene)
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Condo Trends
• Absorptions of units built were very strong through early 2007.
Absorptions have slowed to a crawl since the latter half of 2007, due
primarily to diminished availability of mortgage financing (for detached
dwellings, as well, but particularly for condos).
• The number of condo units still in the pipeline is very small -
– Fewer than 100 units under construction or set to start in 2011
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Property Sales 2008-2009
# of Units $/SF $/Unit
Mansions in the Park
(7520 Perkins)264 $122 $103,470
Sterling University
(3135 Highland)98 n/a $214,280
Villa Franche
(1302 Bob Pettit)40 $60 $35,000
Drehr Place
(901 St. Rose)28 $70 $68,080
Longridge
(11999 Longridge)144 $81 $78,472
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Market Summary
• The Baton Rouge market is in the process of absorbing the 4,842+
apartments and 2,100+ condos built since Katrina hit (in August 2005),
with 716+ units under construction and 556+ announced/planned for
2012-13 (though some will likely remain on hold).
• Vacancies have returned to historical norms (6% to 7%). Economic
vacancies are likely much higher.
• Rents will likely continue to rise slightly through 2011, while vacancies
should stabilize at 6% to 8%.
• Vacancies in Livingston Parish may continue to rise, as the numerous new
units are gradually absorbed.
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Thanks to….
• Sean McDonald, Craig Davenport, Abby McMasters, Alexis Martin, Elise
Moore and Tim Kleinpeter with Cook, Moore & Associates
• Ty Gose with Latter & Blum Realtors
• Gregg Cordaro with Cordaro Companies
• The LSU Real Estate Research Institute