Basics of numerical coupled modelling · New features of IPCC AR5 ... Impacts, Vulnerability and...

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Transcript of Basics of numerical coupled modelling · New features of IPCC AR5 ... Impacts, Vulnerability and...

Page 1: Basics of numerical coupled modelling · New features of IPCC AR5 ... Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (CCA) Spatial Information and Analysis (SIA) Sustainable Consumption and
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Outline:• The general context

• ETC/CCA, EEA and EIONET

• The Consortium

• The Implementation Plan 2011

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Adaptation: An Evolving ChallengeAdaptation: An Evolving Challenge

• The impacts of global climate change are and will be felt across economies and societies.

• Models are improving in assessing the impacts at any given level of climate change.

• Adaptation – Uncertaintities• Full range of consequences / probabilities

• Tails also important – high impact events

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Adaptation: since 2001 has been a prominent area of action under the UNFCCC

The 2007 Bali Action Plan identified Adaptation among the 5 key building blocks for strenghtening the future response to CC and the long-term cooperation of Parties under the UNFCCC, for which capacity building action is essential and crosscutting.

Shared Vision on long-term global goal for emission reductions

Mitigation of GHG

emissions

Adaptation to cc impacts

Technology

development and transfer

Financing

Capacity builiding for developing countries

GLOBALGLOBAL: : Adaptation - UNFCCCAdaptation - UNFCCC

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• At Cancun COP16 (2010) good progress - adoption of the “Cancun Agreements” that, inter alia, further enhanced action on adaptation and capacity building.

AWG-LCA for long term cooperation- Establishment of an Adaptation Committee,

SBSTA for scientific and technical advice- Renewal of the Nairobi Work Programme

SBI for the actual implementation of actions- Work programme on loss and damage due to climate change- Work programme on Least Developed Countries’ adaptation

needs- Capacity building under the Convention and under the Kyoto

Protocol

The CANCUN AGREEMENTSThe CANCUN AGREEMENTS

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New features of IPCC AR5New features of IPCC AR5• Not individual sectors, but systems people can relate

to.e.g. food production and food security; settlements and infrastructure; urban and rural planning, human health, wellbeing and security.

• Improved risk-management approach

• More attention to regional matters in all WGs, 1) WGI Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change2) WGII (2nd volume) PART B: REGIONAL ASPECTS

• Cross cutting themes e.g. costing and economic analysis, carbon cycle, earth system changes

• Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties

Move from climate change box to true integration

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• Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth: ‘strengthen our economies' resilience to climate risks’

• Climate change adaptation – Green Paper, White Paper (2009), Mainstreaming in EU policies, Clearinghouse on adaptation by early 2012, EU strategy by 2013.

• Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive

• Nature protection directives and policies to halt biodiversity loss

• Marine Strategy Framework Directive; Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)

• Other (e.g. sectoral, cross-cutting): maritime, agriculture; forestry; human health; disaster risk reduction; infrastructure e.g. energy, transport (regional policies); urban areas

EU climate adaptation policy:EU climate adaptation policy:

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• April 2009 - EC White Paper:

EU framework for adaptation measures and policies focusing on the following key areas:

• building a stronger knowledge base since sound data is vital in the development of climate policy,

• taking climate change impacts into consideration in key EU policies,

• financing climate change policy measures,

• supporting wider international efforts on adaptation by helping for example non-EU countries to improve their resilience and capacity to adapt to climate change.

EUROPEEUROPE: : EU Adaptation framework EU Adaptation framework

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• The European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (ETC/CCA) is an integral part of EIONET (European Environment Information and Observation Network)

EIONET is:o a partnership network of the European Environment Agency (EEA)

and its member and cooperating countries.

o consists of the EEA, six European Topic Centres (ETCs) and a network of experts from 38 countries in many national environment agencies and other bodies dealing with environmental information.

o crucial to the EEA in supporting the collection and organisation of data and the development and dissemination of information.

EEA, EIONET and ETC/CCA (1)EEA, EIONET and ETC/CCA (1)

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Through EIONET, EEA coordinates the delivery of timely, nationally validated, high-quality environmental data from individual countries.

This forms the basis of integrated environmental assessments and knowledge that is disseminated and made accessible through the EEA website.

This information, combined with other information sources (e.g. from research projects), serves to support environmental management processes, environmental policy making and assessment, and public participation at national, European and global levels.

EEA, EIONET and ETC/CCA (2)EEA, EIONET and ETC/CCA (2)

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Air pollution and Climate Change mitigation

(ACM)Biological Diversity

(BD)

Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability

and Adaptation (CCA)

Spatial Information and

Analysis (SIA)

Sustainable Consumption

and Production (SCP)

Inland, Coastal and Marine

waters (ICM)

EEA EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRES:EEA EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRES:

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IntroductionIntroduction

Start: January 2011 End: December 2013Topical expertise:

data and indicators on climate change and its impacts across sectors and regions assessment of climate change vulnerabilities and natural hazard risks to society and ecosystems current or planned adaptation strategies and actions.

Main contributions in 2011: GMES (climate, hazards/floods) ClimateWatch service on EoE Adaptation Clearinghouse for Europe (ACE) Follow-up SOER (European Environment State and Outlook Report 2010) 2010 Freshwater report 2012, Coastal report 2012, Climate impact/vulnerability report 2012 and report on cities and vulnerability/adaptation 2011/2012 12

ETC/CCA

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Consortium & geographical coverageConsortium & geographical coverage

10 European organisations

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CMCCCMCC (ITALY)Coordinator

AlterraAlterra (NETHERLANDS)

AU-NERIAU-NERI - Aarhus University - National Environmental Research Institute) (DENMARK)

CUNICUNI - Charles University Environment Center (CZECH REPUBLIC)

FFCULFFCUL - Fundação da Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa (PORTUGAL)

MOMO – Met Office (UK)

SYKESYKE - Finnish Environment Institute (FINLAND)

THETITHETIS (ITALY)

UFZUFZ - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH (GERMANY)

UPMUPM - Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (SPAIN)

ETC/CCAPartnership for European Environmental Research

network (PEER)

Climate Impact Research & Response Coordination

for a Larger Europe network

(CIRCLE-2 ERA-Net)

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MyOcean (implementation of the GMES Marine Service for ocean monitoring and forecasting) 2009 - March 2012CMCC, SYKE, Met Office, AU

CIRCE (Climate change and impact research in the Mediterranean Environment) 2007 - 2011CMCC, FFCUL, MO, UPM, UFZ

ENSEMBLES - Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts MO, AU-NERI, CMCC, CUNI, SYKE

MEDIATION (Methodology for Effective Decision-making on Impacts and Adaptation)Alterra, SYKE, UPM

ETC/CCA partners have been and are involved in several FP6 and FP7 projects

ETC/CCA

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The coordination team at CMCC:The coordination team at CMCC:

• Sergio Castellari – Coordinator/Manager and Task 2011 Manager

• Silvia Medri – Deputy Scientific/technical Manager and Task 2124 Manager

• Lorella Reda – Deputy Administrative Manager

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ETC/CCA

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Mikael HildenSYKESYKE

Deborah Hemming

MOMO

Emiliano RamieriTHETISTHETIS

Hans SandersonAU-NERIAU-NERI

Rob SwartAlterraAlterra

Project 2.1.1:EU Clearinghouse

Project 2.1.2:Climate change and disaster

risk assessments

Project 2.1.3:Mapping of hazard risks/climate

change vulnerability and methods for adaptation costs

Project 2.0.1:Climate change impacts

Project 2.0.2:Support GMES and ClimateWatch

Eye on Earth service

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Web siteWeb site

http://etc-http://etc-cca.eionet.europa.eu/cca.eionet.europa.eu/

ETC/CCA

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Activities Activities (ETC/CCA Implementation Plan 2011)

Project 2.0.1 - Climate change impactsTask 2.0.1.1 - Updated climate change impact indicators

Project 2.0.2 - Support GMES and ClimateWatch Eye on Earth serviceTask 2.0.2.1 - Support to GMES climate changeTask 2.0.2.2 - Develop ClimateWatch service on Eye on Earth

Project 2.1.1 - EU Clearinghouse on climate change IVA (SEIS)Task 2.1.1.1 - Supporting the development and implementation of the EU Clearinghouse

Project 2.1.2 - Climate change and disaster risk assessmentsTask 2.1.2.1 - Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation in citiesTask 2.1.2.2 - EU Flood Impact Database – Pilot exercisesTask 2.1.2.3 - Contributions to EEA assessment reportsTask 2.1.2.4 - EIONET workshop and networking

Project 2.1.3 - Mapping of hazard risks/climate change vulnerability and methods for adaptation costs

Task 2.1.3.1 - Coastal systems vulnerability and risksProject 6.0.10 - ETC/CCA management and coordination

Task 6.0.10.1 - ETC/CCA management and coordination

18ETC/CCA

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Climate change impactsManager: Mikael Hilden (SYKE, FINLAND)

Deputy Manager: Andreas Marx (UFZ, GERMANY)

To update key indicators on CC impacts, observed and projected, using results from major international, EU and national research programmes and promote dissemination;

To support a Joint report between EEA, JRC, WHO and ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control) and 3 ETCs - a 2012 indicator-based report on climate change impacts in Europe (updated from 2008).

Technical paper for the evaluation of current and potential indicators for the evaluation of all indicators to be used in the 2012 report.

Expected country review in 2nd half 2012, publication end of 2012.

ETC/CCA

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• trends and a range of projections/scenarios of climate change:• atmosphere, cryosphere - ETC/CCA• marine biodiversity and ecosystems - ETC/ICM• water quantity, river floods and droughts – JRC• freshwater quality and biodiversity - ETC/ICM• biodiversity and ecosystems - ETC/BD• soil – JRC• agriculture and forests – JRC• human health - WHO, ECDC• vulnerabilities and risks - ETC/CCA.

Draft scope of the CC 2012 EEA report

(update of 2008 report)

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Support GMES and ClimateWatch/Eye of Earth service

Manager: Deborah Hemming (Met Office, UK).Deputy Manager: Rob Allan (Met Office, UK)

Task Managers: Adrian Broad (Met Office, UK) Rob Allan (Met Office, UK)

BACKGROUND:

In 2010 EEA prepared a document on user needs for a possible future GMES climate change service/contribution from a perspective of environmental and vulnerability assessment needs.

The Commission has established an expert group that should give advice to the Commission on the content of a possible GMES climate service.

ETC/CCA

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Support GMES and ClimateWatch/Eye of Earth service

Manager: Deborah Hemming (Met Office, UK).Deputy Manager: Rob Allan (Met Office, UK)

Task Managers: Adrian Broad (Met Office, UK) Rob Allan (Met Office, UK)

ACTIONS:

Contribute to user needs for the possible future GMES Climate Core Service.

contribute to expert meetings and participate in planned GMES for Climate Change workshop in Helsinki (Finland) on 16 -17 June.

Support to the development of a possible future ClimateWatch service on the Eye on Earth (EoE) platform (feasibility study)

ETC/CCA

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Supporting the development and implementation of the EU Clearinghouse

Manager: Hans Sanderson (AU-NERI, DENMARK) Deputy Manager and Task Manager::Sergio Castellari (CMCC, ITALY)

Support development of the Adaptation Clearinghouse for Europe (ACE) by contractor (Alterra) for EC DG CLIMA.

Participate in various expert meetings with Alterra (organised by EEA) on the content and look/feel of ACE, and plan to participate in User Group.

Support contractor and EEA by providing updated overviews on (sub-) national assessments; plans and actions and research projects and in the definition and implementation of QA/QC procedures;

Support the development of the ACE governance plan (to be drafted by EEA);

Participate in EC DG CLIMA Working Group on Knowledge Base on CC adaptation.

Update and improve the overview on the EEA web site of (sub-) national adaptation strategies.

ETC/CCA

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• BACKGROUND:• In 2010 EEA scoping study on key issues prepared

to assess feasibility of developing and

implementing climate change related vulnerability

indicators for urban areas to support future EU

spatial development policy.

• The study reviewed available literature, research and

data and also provide an indication of information on

current/planned adaptation actions in cities.

Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation in citiesManager: Rob Swart (Alterra, NETHERLANDS)

Deputy Manager: Natasha Marinova (Alterra, NETHERLANDS)Task managers: Rob Swart , Jochen Luther (UFZ, GERMANY), Mikael Hildén (SYKE, FINLAND)

ETC/CCA

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ACTIONS:• Contribution to drafting of EEA assessment report

on vulnerability and adaptation in cities (to be

published early 2012):

This EEA report will include:

1) an overview of various aspects of urban adaptation

action (multilevel governance and cross sectoral policy

linkages)

2) selected examples (based on identified/developed

indicators from 2010 scoping study).

Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation in citiesManager: Rob Swart (Alterra, NETHERLANDS)

Deputy Manager: Natasha Marinova (Alterra, NETHERLANDS)Task managers: Rob Swart , Jochen Luther (UFZ, GERMANY), Mikael Hildén (SYKE, FINLAND)

ETC/CCA

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EU Flood Impact Database – Pilot exercises Manager: Rob Swart (Alterra, NETHERLANDS)

Deputy Manager: Natasha Marinova (Alterra, NETHERLANDS)Task managers: Rob Swart , Jochen Luther (UFZ, GERMANY), Mikael Hildén (SYKE, FINLAND)

ETC/CCA

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EU Flood Impact Database – Pilot exercises Manager: Rob Swart (Alterra, NETHERLANDS)

Deputy Manager: Natasha Marinova (Alterra, NETHERLANDS)Task managers: Rob Swart , Jochen Luther (UFZ, GERMANY), Mikael Hildén (SYKE, FINLAND)

• ACTIONS:• Support to working paper by EEA and JRC on

flood impacts database.

• Support to EEA questionnaire on flood impact

data for the member countries.

ETC/CCA

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Contributions to EEA assessment reports Manager: Rob Swart (Alterra)

Deputy manager: Natasha Marinova (Alterra)Task manager: Mikael Hildén (SYKE)

• Support to EEA assessment report on floods, drought and water scarcity (to be finalised in 2012.• Now the Report on floods, drought and water scarcity has been separated :

1. Flood report now led by ETC/CCA, with contributions from ETC/ICM.

2. Droughts and water scarcity report is led by ETC/ICM, with contribution by ETC/CCA.

• Support to some specific sections of EEA assessment report on coastal waters (to be finalised in 2012 and led by ETC/ICM)

ETC/CCA

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Support to EEA in:• organization and coordination of EIONET

Workshop (30 June)• the EPA Network interest group • the EU Council Expert Groups on Science and

on Adaptation under UNFCCC • relevant IPCC plenary and expert meetings • disaster risk reduction networks (UNISDR

platform)

EIONET workshop and networking

Manager: Rob Swart (Alterra, NETHERLANDS)Deputy Manager: Natasha Marinova (Alterra, NETHERLANDS)

Task manager: Silvia Medri (CMCC. ITALY)ETC/CCA

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Mapping of hazard risks/climate change vulnerability (coastal systems)

Manager: Emiliano Ramieri (Thetis, ITALY)Deputy Manager: Andrew Hartley (Met Office, UK)

Task managers: Emiliano Ramieri (Thetis, ITALY), Christian Kuhlicke (UFZ, GERMANY)

Write a background paper on methods for assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change on: data needs and availability, methods outcome (for example in terms of spatial scale, addressed drivers, target systems and effects, ease of understanding and access, etc.), applicability of the methods to different coastal systems;

An expert meeting (at EEA in June 2011) for selecting one or few suitable methods for coastal vulnerability assessment for application at the European and/or Regional Sea context;

• analysis of availability of projections of regional/local sea level rise work will be done in close collaboration with ETC/ICM (INGV).

Support EEA’s coastal vulnerability assessment

ETC/CCA

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ThanksFor further information, please contact:Contact Sergio Castellari Role: ETC/CCA ManagerTelephone: +39 051 3782618 / +39 334 1155037E-mail: [email protected] Organization: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)Viale A. Moro 44, 40127 Bologna (Italy)Or visit

ETC/CCA website http://etc-cca.eionet.europa.eu/