BASF Capital Market Story · BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016. 2. 150 years. Cautionary...

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BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 1 BASF Capital Market Story Ingo Rose Director Investor Relations BNY Mellon & Jefferies 2 nd Annual Global ADR Conference New York November 28-29, 2016

Transcript of BASF Capital Market Story · BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016. 2. 150 years. Cautionary...

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 1

    BASF Capital Market Story

    Ingo RoseDirector Investor Relations

    BNY Mellon & Jefferies 2nd Annual Global ADR Conference

    New York

    November 28-29, 2016

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 2

    150 years

    Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements

    This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks anduncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from theproposals described herein. Forward-looking statements may include, in particular, statementsabout future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects,competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. BASF has based these forward-looking statements on its views and assumptions with respect to future events and financialperformance. Actual financial performance could differ materially from that projected in theforward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts andprojections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given theseuncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Theinformation contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and BASF doesnot undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates andassumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws andregulations.

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 3

    150 years

    Chemistry as an enabler BASF has superior growth

    opportunities: – sustainable innovations– investments– emerging markets

    The #1 chemical company €70.4 billion sales, €6.7

    billion EBIT bSI in 2015 #1-3 in ~70% of businesses,

    present in almost all countries

    6 integrated Verbund sites, production in 60 countries

    A track record of strong sales and earnings growth

    >3.5% dividend yield in every single year from 2006-2015

    ~€73.6 billion market capitalization on October 27, 2016

    PerspectiveLudwigshafen,Germany

    Antwerp,Belgium

    Nanjing,China

    Kuantan,MalaysiaGeismar,

    LouisianaFreeport,Texas

    Verbund site

    Positioning

    We create chemistry for a sustainable future

    Performance

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 4

    150 years

    Percentage of sales 2015*

    * Not depicted here: ~4% of Group sales reported as ‘Other‘ ** Natural Gas Trading has been divested on Sep. 30, 2015.

    BASF today – a well-balanced portfolioTotal sales 2015: €70.4 billion

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 5

    150 years

    Global reduction in carbon emissions of 6 million metric tons p.a. and reduction of waste

    Example Ludwigshafen site:avoidance of 7 million metric tons of freight p.a.= 280,000 fewer truckloads

    Shared use of on-site facilities: fire department, security, waste water treatment and analytics

    Verbund: Unique competitive advantage

    * Savings include only tangible synergies. Additional (intangible) benefits and retained profits are not included.

    Verbund generates >€1 billion p.a. global cost savings* and supports sustainability

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 6

    150 years

    Q3 2016: Financial figures for BASF Group

    Financial figures Q3 2016 Q3 2015 Change

    Sales €14.0 billion €17.4 billion (20%)

    EBITDA €2.4 billion €2.9 billion (15%)

    EBIT before special items €1.5 billion €1.6 billion (5%)

    EBIT €1.5 billion €1.9 billion (22%)

    Net income €0.9 billion €1.2 billion (27%)

    Reported EPS €0.97 €1.31 (26%)

    Adjusted EPS €1.10 €1.07 +3%

    Operating cash flow €2.5 billion €3.4 billion (25%)

    Sales development Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

    Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015 4% (5%) (18%) (1%)

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 7

    150 years

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    2007 2008 2009** 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1-Q32016

    Free cash flow development

    * Cash provided by operating activities less capex ** 2009 adjusted for re-classification of settlement payments for currency derivatives

    Free cash flow*(in billion €)

    3.2

    2.5

    3.2

    3.9 3.7

    2.6

    3.2

    1.7

    3.6

    2.9

    Diagramm1

    2007

    2008

    2009**

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    Q1-Q3 2016

    Free Cash Flow

    3.245

    2.502

    3.186

    3.912

    3.695

    2.587

    3.21

    1.7

    3.6

    2.9

    Sheet1

    200720082009**201020112012201320142015Q1-Q3 2016

    Free Cash Flow3.2452.5023.1863.9123.6952.5873.2101.73.62.9

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 8

    150 years

    Outlook 2016 for BASF Group confirmed

    Outlook 2016 Sales will be considerably below prior year due to the divestiture of the natural gas trading

    and storage activities and the lower oil and gas prices. We expect EBIT before special items to be slightly below the previous year level due to

    significantly lower earnings in Oil & Gas.

    Assumptions 2016 GDP growth: +2.3% Growth in industrial production: +2.0% Growth in chemical production*: +3.4% Exchange rate: $1.10 per euro Oil price (Brent): $45 per barrel (previous forecast: $40 per barrel)

    * Excluding pharma

  • 9

    Business development

    Path forward: Our priorities

    Appendix – Q3 2016 reporting

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 10

    150 years

    Components of growth

    * 2010, 2011 indicative, adjusted for IFRS 10 & 11

    59.6

    70.4+10.5 -1.4

    +2.6 -0.9

    20

    40

    60

    80

    2010 2015

    Volumes

    PricesFX M&A

    Sales* analysis 2010 – 2015 (in billion €)

    (in billion €) Net sales 2010 Volumes Prices FX M&A Sales CAGR 2010 - 2015

    BASF Group w/o Oil & Gas 51.4

    +2.8 (+1.1% CAGR) -0.9 +2.6 +1.6 +2.3%

    Oil & Gas 8.2 +7.7 (+14.2% CAGR) -0.5 +0.0 -2.5 +9.6%

    3.4%

    CAGR

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 11

    150 years

    Steady earnings growth

    * 2010, 2011 indicative, adjusted for IFRS 10 & 11; 2001 – 2009 as reported, without non-compensable foreign income taxes on oil production

    EBIT and EBITDA*(in billion €, 2001 - 2015)

    3.74.7 4.6

    7.0 7.2

    8.48.9

    7.7

    6.5

    9.9

    11.2

    10.010.4

    11.0 10.6

    8.0

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1-Q32016

    EBITEBITDA

    0.7

    2.2 2.2

    4.5 4.85.5 6.0

    4.6

    2.8

    6.7

    8.06.7 7.2

    7.6

    6.2

    5.0

    CAGREBITDA

    7.9%CAGREBIT

    16.6%

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 12

    150 years

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    2015 2018

    Annual earnings contribution(in million €)

    Targeted annual earnings contribution of €1 billion from end of 2018 on

    Optimization of processes and structures in all regions, e.g.– manufacturing– incremental capacities– productivity increase

    Project timeline: 2016–2018

    DrivE program

    Strategic lever: Operational excellenceDrivE with ~€1 billion earnings contribution

    NEXT 2008-2011 DrivE 2016-2018

    STEP 2012-2015

    Diagramm1

    2015201520152015

    2018201820182018

    Sheet1!#REF!

    NEXT

    STEP

    NewPro

    1000

    1300

    1000

    1300

    1000

    Sheet1

    201420152018

    NEXT100010001000

    STEP100013001300

    NewPro1000

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 13

    150 years

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Strong track record in operational excellence

    EBITDA

    Sales

    * Excl. companies with major IFRS 10/11 restatements, i.e. BASF YPC Nanjing, Libya onshore, other Oil & Gas and Catalysts companies

    BASF Group* 2001–2015(indexed; CAGR 2001–2015)

    Fixed Costs

    CAGREBITDA

    9%

    CAGRSales

    6%

    CAGRFixed Costs3%

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 14

    150 years

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    2006 2009 2012 2015

    2.90

    We want to grow or at least maintain our dividend at the previous year’s level

    Dividend of €2.90 per share, an increase of 3.6%

    Dividend yield of 4.1% in 2015

    Dividend yield above 3.5%in any given year since 2006

    4.6%

    Attractive shareholder return

    Key facts 2015

    Dividend per share (€)

    0.50

    1.00

    1.50

    2.00

    * Dividend yield based on share price at year-end

    4.1% 3.8% 7.0% 3.9% 3.7%Yield* 3.7%

    2.50

    3.5%

    3.00

    4.0% 4.1%

    1.50

    1.95 1.951.70

    2.202.50 2.60 2.70

    Dividend policy

    2.80

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 15

    150 years

    Average annual performance with dividends reinvested

    0 3 6 9 12 15

    Euro Stoxx 50

    DAX 30

    MSCI World Chemicals

    +5.5%

    Last 5 yearsNovember 2011 – October 2016

    +12.5%

    +8.3%

    +11.7%

    +9.9%

    Last 10 yearsNovember 2006 – October 2016

    BASF

    +6.9%

    +0.4%

    +13.1%

    Delivering consistent, long-term value

    Diagramm1

    MSCI World

    DAX

    Euro Stoxx

    BASF

    Ost

    9.1%

    12.0%

    8.1%

    6.9

    5.5

    0.4

    13.1

    Sheet1

    MSCI WorldDAXEuro StoxxBASF

    Ost6.95.500.413.1

  • 16

    Business development

    Path forward: Our priorities

    Appendix – Q3 2016 reporting

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 17

    150 years

    Grow sales and earnings faster than global chemical production, driven by

    – Continued focus on innovations

    – Capital expenditures

    – Acquisitions

    – Operational excellence and Verbund advantages

    Focus on cash generation/conversion

    Continue with our progressive dividend policy

    Focus on pruning our portfolio

    Maintain industry-leading position in sustainability

    The path forward: Our priorities

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 18

    150 years

    €1.95 billion R&D expendituresin 2015; to be maintained in 2016

    ~10,000 employees in R&D

    ~3,000 projects

    Ranked No.1 in thePatent Asset Index™

    ~1,000 new patents in 2015

    Research Verbund: Cooperations with more than 600 excellent partners from universities, start-upsand industry

    Strong commitment to innovationInnovations for a sustainable future

    Key facts

    1.61.7

    1.8 1.9 1.95

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    R&D expenditures (billion €)

    Chemicals11%

    Performance Products20%

    Functional Mat. & Sol.20%

    Agricultural Solutions26%

    Oil & Gas2%

    Corporate Research21%

    2.0

    1.5

    1.0

    0.5

    0

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 19

    150 years

    Hyundai Motor and BASF showcase joint development of RN30 concept car

    Body coating: Color Pro IC waterborne basecoat and iGloss® clearcoat

    Fender and spoiler: Elastolit® rigid foam and reaction injection molding systems

    Seat cover and steering wheel: unique surface technology valure™

    Electronics and electric: Ultramid® advanced plastics for sophisticated components

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 20

    150 years

    Automotive is a growth business for BASF

    * Excl. precious metals, coatings refinish business;

    BASF sales to Automotive vs. global vehicle production(indexed)

    50%

    75%

    100%

    125%

    150%

    175%

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    BASF salesto Automotive

    CAGR6.7%

    Global vehicleproduction

    CAGR shown for 2007 – 2015

    CAGR

    2.8%

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 21

    150 years

    Investments for organic growth

    Performance Products16%

    Oil & Gas24%

    €19.5billion

    FunctionalMaterials &Solutions12%

    Capex budget 2016-2020

    Other14%

    Chemicals30%

    Capex budget 2016-2020

    Asia Pacific18%

    €19.5billion

    South America*9%

    North America26%

    Europe46%

    AgriculturalSolutions4%

    Other1%

    by segment by region

    * Including Africa and Middle East

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 22

    150 years

    Functional crop care Personal care & food Omega-3 fatty acids Enzymes Battery materials Specialty plastics Selected assets in Oil & Gas Refinish coatings Surface treatment*

    BASFcore business

    Strong partnerships

    Gazprom Monsanto Petronas Shell Sinopec Statoil Total Yara

    Selected transactions 2010 − until today

    Acquisitions

    ~ €5.2 billion salesin emerging and innovation-driven

    businesses

    Divestitures

    Styrenics Fertilizers Selected assets in Oil & Gas Natural gas trading & storage Custom synthesis business Textile chemicals Polyolefin catalysts Industrial coatings*

    ~ €20 billion salesin businesses with

    limited fit and differentiation

    potential

    Portfolio development towards more market-driven and innovative businesses

    * Closing expected in 2016

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 23

    150 years

    Provide a return on investment above the WACC

    Are EPS accretive by year three at the latest

    Financial acquisition criteria

    Generate profitable growth above the industry average

    Are innovation-driven

    Offer a special value proposition to customers

    Reduce earnings cyclicality

    Strategic acquisition criteria

    We want to acquire businesses which …

    Strategic lever: Acquisitions

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 24

    150 years

    2.2% 0.2%

    Novel methodology to screen and steer our portfolio*

    26.6% Accelerators:– outgrow their markets

    by 2-10%– deliver margins >10%

    above the average– represent >60% of BASF’s

    R&D pipeline 71% Performers

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 25

    150 years

    Four-Way Conversion Catalyst removes particulates

    Trilon M® high-performance phosphate alternative

    SLENTITE® high-performance insulation material

    ecovio® biodegradable polymer solution

    Green Sense® resource efficient concrete production

    Solutions for a sustainable future

    Acronal® MB – from biomass to dispersions

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 26

    150 years

    Sustainability goalsOverview

    Procurement Goal 2020 2015

    Sustainability performanceassessment of relevant suppliers 70% 31%

    Employees Goal 2021 2015

    Women in leadership positions 22-24% 19.5%

    Long-term goal 2015

    Non-German senior executives 35.6%

    Senior executives with international experience >80% 82.9%

    Production Goal 2025 2015Process safety incidents1) ≤0.5 2.1

    Lost-time injury rate1) ≤0.5 1.4

    Annual goal 2015

    Health Performance Index >0.9 0.97

    Product stewardship Goal 2020 2015

    Risk assessment of products2) >99% 67.8%

    Energy & climate protection Goal 2020 2015

    Greenhouse gas emissions3) −40% −34.6%

    Introduction of ISO 50001 energy management system4) 90% 39.5%

    Water Goal 2025 2015

    Sustainable water management at Verbund sites and water stress areas 100% 36.2%

    Products & Solutions Goal 2020 2015

    Proportion of “Accelerators”5) in product portfolio 28% 26.6%

    1) per one million working hours2) for products >1 metric ton per year 3) per metric ton of sales products; excl. Oil & Gas, baseline 20024) at all relevant sites (primary energy demand, local energy prices)5) products with substantial contribution to sustainability

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 27

    150 years

    Profitability of BASF will grow faster than global chemical production

    Sales growthSlightly faster than the global chemical production

    EBITDA growthWell above global chemical production

    Remain a strong cash providerContinuously generate high levels of free cash flow

    Financial targets for the coming years

    Deliver attractive returnsEarn a significant premium on cost of capital

    Progressive dividend policy We want to grow or at least maintain our dividend

  • 28

    Business development

    Path forward: Our priorities

    Appendix – Q3 2016 reporting

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 29

    150 years

    ChemicalsHigher volumes, but margin pressure in Petrochemicals and Intermediates

    Intermediates662(6%)

    Monomers1,405(8%)

    Petrochemicals1,310(7%)

    €3,377(7%)

    EBIT before special items million €

    633

    249

    465 467 497

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

    Sales development Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

    Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015 5% (12%) 0% 0%

    20162015

    Sales Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015million €

    Diagramm1

    Q3

    Q4

    Q1

    Q2

    Q3

    EBIT bSI

    633

    249

    465

    467

    497

    Sheet1

    Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

    EBIT bSI633249465467497

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 30

    150 years

    Performance Chemicals945(6%)

    Performance ProductsSignificant increase in earnings driven by higher volumes, improved margins and lower fixed costs

    CareChemicals

    1,175(4%)

    €3,771(3%)Nutrition

    & Health504+2%

    Dispersions& Pigments

    1,147(2%)

    Sales development Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

    Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015 2% (3%) (2%) 0%

    EBIT before special items million €

    Sales Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015million €

    20162015

    319228

    547503 464

    0

    200

    400

    600

    Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

    Diagramm1

    Q3

    Q4

    Q1

    Q2

    Q3

    EBIT bSI

    319

    228

    547

    503

    464

    Sheet1

    Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

    EBIT bSI319228547503464

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 31

    150 years

    Functional Materials & SolutionsSignificantly higher earnings on continued good demand in automotive and construction as well as lower fixed costs

    Catalysts1,552+5%

    Coatings790+5%

    €4,6603%

    Performance Materials1,712+2%

    ConstructionChemicals

    606(1%)

    EBIT before special items million €

    Sales development Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

    Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015 8% (3%) (1%) (1%)

    Sales Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015million €

    20162015

    371 389456

    535497

    0

    200

    400

    600

    Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

    Diagramm1

    Q3

    Q4

    Q1

    Q2

    Q3

    EBIT bSI

    371

    389

    456

    535

    497

    Sheet1

    Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

    EBIT bSI371389456535497

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 32

    150 years

    Agricultural SolutionsSignificantly higher earnings due to improved margins andlower fixed costs

    Sales development Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

    Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015 (4%) 0% 0% 1%

    Sales Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015million €

    2016201520162015

    1,077 1,049

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    Q3 Q3

    (3%)

    7

    97

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    Q3 Q3

    €90million

    EBIT before special items million €

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 33

    150 years

    Oil & GasConsiderably lower sales and earnings due to disposalof gas trading business as well as lower prices

    Sales development Volumes Prices/Currencies Portfolio

    Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015 3% (3%) (83%)

    Natural Gas Trading

    Exploration & Production

    Net income

    79

    292

    194

    625

    330

    200

    400

    600

    Q3 2015 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2016

    EBIT before special items, net income million €

    Sales Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015million €

    371

    2,939

    618

    667

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    Q3 Q320162015

    (83%)

    3,606

    667

    Natural Gas Trading

    Exploration & Production

    * Including transportation business

    * Including transportation business

    **

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 34

    150 years

    Review of “Other”

    million € Q3 2016 Q3 2015

    Sales 538 685EBIT before special items (233) (98)Thereof Corporate research costs (77) (104)

    Costs of corporate headquarters (54) (53)

    Foreign currency results, hedging andother valuation effects (101) 22

    Other businesses 15 30

    Special items (23) 26

    EBIT (256) (72)

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 35

    150 years

    Cash flow Q1 – Q3 2016

    million € Q1 – Q3 2016 Q1 – Q3 2015

    Cash provided by operating activities 5,840 8,494Thereof changes in net working capital (393) 2,500

    miscellaneous items (172) (497)Cash used in investing activities (2,776) (4,955)Thereof payments related to tangible / intangible assets (2,915) (4,387)

    acquisitions / divestitures 212 227

    Cash used in financing activities (1,898) (3,504)

    Thereof changes in financial liabilities 837 (649)dividends (2,753) (2,900)

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 36

    150 years

    Strong balance sheet

    24.1 27.6

    15.215.8

    31.529.7

    Dec 312015

    Sep 302016

    2.2 3.53.1 3.59.5 9.8

    9.7 9.8

    46.3 46.5

    Dec 312015

    Sep 302016

    Liquid funds

    Accountsreceivable

    Long-termassets

    Inventories

    Other assets

    70.8 73.1 70.8 73.1

    Otherliabilities

    Financialdebt

    Equity

    Balance sheet September 30, 2016 vs. December 31, 2015 billion €

    Total assets increased by €2.3 billion, mainly due to higher liquid funds

    Inventories were stable

    Provisions for pensions and similar obligations increased by €3.6 billion

    Net debt declined by around €600 million to €12.3 billion

    Equity ratio: 41%

  • BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 37

    150 years

    Slide Number 1Cautionary note regarding �forward-looking statements We create chemistry �for a sustainable futureBASF today – a well-balanced portfolio�Total sales 2015: €70.4 billionVerbund: Unique competitive advantageQ3 2016: Financial figures for BASF GroupFree cash flow developmentSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Components of growth�Steady earnings growthStrategic lever: Operational excellence�DrivE with ~€1 billion earnings contributionStrong track record in operational excellence Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16The path forward: �Our prioritiesSlide Number 18Hyundai Motor and BASF showcase joint development of RN30 concept carAutomotive is a growth business for BASF Investments for organic growthPortfolio development towards more market-driven and innovative businessesStrategic lever: �Acquisitions Strategic lever: Sustainability �Sustainable Solution SteeringSolutions for a sustainable future�Sustainability goals�OverviewProfitability of BASF will grow faster than global chemical productionSlide Number 28Chemicals�Higher volumes, but margin pressure in Petrochemicals and IntermediatesPerformance Products�Significant increase in earnings driven by higher volumes, improved margins and lower fixed costs Functional Materials & Solutions�Significantly higher earnings on continued good demand in automotive and construction as well as lower fixed costsAgricultural Solutions�Significantly higher earnings due to improved margins and�lower fixed costsSlide Number 33Review of “Other” Cash flow Q1 – Q3 2016�Strong balance sheetSlide Number 37