Baseline data for climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments, and adaptation planning

UNFCCC Technical Workshop under the Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to

Climate ChangeCollaboration among Regional Centres and Networks

2-5 March 2010Apia, Samoa

Jose A. MarengoCCST/INPE, Sao Paulo Brazil

Co-chair IPCC TGICASão Paulo, Brazil

jose.marengo@cptec.inpe.br

Outline

1. Why do we need baseline data and information?

2. Contributions of the IPCC, its TGICA and the IPCC DDC to the UNFCCC process and the NWP;

3. Baseline data currently available on the IPCC DDC website;

Context of baseline information

Baseline information is important for �

� Characterising the prevailing conditions under which an exposure unit functions and to which it must adapt;

� Describing average conditions, spatial and temporal variability and anomalous events, some of which can cause significant impacts;

� Calibrating and testing impact models across the current range of variability;

� Identifying possible ongoing trends or cycles;

� Specifying the reference situation with which to compare future changes

� ... Through the information contained in its assessment reports, special reports and technical papers.

For the NWP, � Information, guidance documents and services

prepared and provided by the IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA) and the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC).

� Baseline datasets for climatic, (non-climatic) environmental, and socio-economic variables/indicators, baseline datasets for climatic, (non-climatic) environmental, and socio-economic

Contributions of the IPCC to the UNFCCC process and the NWP

Role of the TGICA

o Facilitate interaction between groups, training and capacity building (ex. Fiji Regional meeting 2007)

o Facilitate data collection (Baseline and scenarios) and dissemination

� The IPCC TGICA has as its mandate to facilitate the provision and wide dissemination of climate change-related data (baseline and scenarios) to enable research and the sharing of information across the three working groups of the IPCC by the IPCC DDC.

� Relevant IPCC products: o Baseline and scenario data for climatic, related

environmental and socio-economic factors for use in climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) studies;

o User support, including guidance to ensure proper use of data.

Contributions of IPCC TGICA and IPCC DDC to NWP

Climate data from the IPCC DDChttp://www.ipcc-data.org/obs/index.html

� Data used in the AR4 assessment report: four datasets were used in the report to evaluate trends over the past century. These are available either as global and hemispheric aggregates or as low resolution (5 degrees by 5 degrees) spatial fields.

� High resolution climatology: a high resolution data set prepared by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). This dataset is not, however, considered to have the same reliability for studies of long term trends as the low resolution CRU dataset which was included in the AR4 assessment (see above). This dataset is available in NetCDF and GeoTIFF (GIS compatible) format.

� Version of CRU data: these data have been superceded by the new versions above, but are preserved in the archive.

Climate data from the IPCC DDC:http://www.ipcc-data.org/obs/index.html

� Global Historic Climatology Network (GHCN)� International Research Institute for Climate Prediction/Lamont-Doherty Earth

Observation at University of Columbia� NCEP and ECMWF Re-analysis Data� British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC)� Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)� National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Data Support System� Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data� World Data Center - A. Meteorology� Climate Diagnostics Centre at NOAA� Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) at NOAA� National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) at NOAA)� World Meteorological Organization WMO� Global Runoff Data Center GRDC� Glopal Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)� Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)

Non-climatic environmental data from the IPCC DDC

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/index.html

� Atmospheric concentration (carbon dioxide, ozone, etc.)

� Land cover/land use (total land area, arable and permanent cropland, permanent pasture, forest and woodland, other land)

� Water (water resources per capita, annual withdrawals for domestic, industrial and agricultural use)

� Agriculture/food (irrigated land, agricultural labour force, total labour force, stocks of cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, equines, buffalo and camels)

� Energy (total commercial energy consumption, traditional fuel consumption, commercial hydroelectric consumption)

� Biodiversity (known and endemic mammal, bird and plant species)

Socio Economic data from the IPCC DDChttp://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/index.html

� Population and human development (total population, current and projected (2025) population density, total urban population, urban population in coastal cities)

� Economic Conditions (GDP per capita, GDP from agriculture, from industry and from services, GDP annual growth rate)

Technical Guidelines and other Supporting Material

General GuidelinesGeneral Guidelines on the use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment (2007).

Capacity BuildingFramework to facilitate development of appropriate data products and research capacity in developing and transition-economy countries (2008).

Thank you!

Jose A. MarengoCCST/INPE, Sao Paulo Brazil

Co-chair IPCC TGICASão Paulo, Brazil

jose.marengo@cptec.inpe.br

UNFCCC Technical Workshop under the Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to

Climate ChangeCollaboration among Regional Centres and Networks

2-5 March 2010Apia, Samoa