Base, on average, almost precisely modeled actual outcome
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“Consider it Advisable to Launch Attack Force Immediately”[i]:
A What if? Investigation and Analysis of the Battle of Midway
[i] Rear Admiral Tamon Yamaguchi, IJN, as quoted by Mitsuo Fuchida and Masatake Okumiya in Midway: The Battle that Doomed Japan (Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1955), 170.
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Base, on average, almostprecisely modeled actual
outcome
02
46
810
1214
1618
USNAircraft
Carriers
IJNAircraft
Carriers
USNFighterAircraft
IJNAFFighterAircraft
USNStrike
Aircraft
History
Base Model
Beginning Number of Agents Historical Base
USN Aircraft Carriers 3 3 IJN Aircraft Carriers 4 4 USN Fighter Aircraft 41 41 IJNAF Fighter Aircraft 20 20 USN Strike Aircraft 63 63
Number of Agents Killed Historical Base
USN Aircraft Carriers 0 0 IJN Aircraft Carriers 3 2 USN Fighter Aircraft 1 6 IJNAF Fighter Aircraft 15 15 USN Strike Aircraft 14 16
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USNCarriers
USNFighter
Aircraft
USNStrike
Aircraft
IJNCarriers
IJNAFFighter
Aircraft
IJNAFStrike
Aircraft
History
Base
Strike 1
Strike 2
Final Dead (Average)Historical Base Strike 1 Strike 2
USN Carriers 0 0 1 2 USN Fighter Aircraft 1 6 6 16 USN Strike Aircraft 14 16 25 24 IJN Carriers 3 2 4 4 IJNAF Fighter Aircraft 15 15 19 33 IJNAF Strike Aircraft N/A N/A 26 25
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Frequency
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Frequency
CV-5 SBD (1000lb)
Base Model
Strike 1
Strike 2
MinMaxStDevAvg
0.00010.0002.1883.300
110
1.9901799734.28
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
08
1.6449055553.22
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Frequency
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Frequency
CV-5 TBD
Base Model
Strike 1
Strike 2
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
4.0013.002.137.80
513
2.26319261612.02
513
1.73840179912.28
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TF16 F4F (FP)
Strike 1
Strike 2
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
19
1.8495448973.26
Frequency
0
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Frequency
312
2.5726980997.56
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0 1 More
Frequency
American Carriers
Strike 1
Strike 2
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
02
0.5424810731.46
12
0.4535573681.72
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Japanese Carriers
Base Model
Strike 1
Strike 2
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
2.0004.0000.4682.160
24
0.6776309273.7
24
0.4819179373.82
Frequency
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Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (low)
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Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (high)
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Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (High)
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Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (Low)
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Endless number of WHAT IFs?
-Weather-Personality Conflicts (Fletcher & Spruance)-Radio Transmission Range-Lt. Tomonaga’s death-VT-3’s tardiness-Japanese carrier decks devoid of aircraft-Willingness of American pilots to face almost certain death-Ability of VF-6’s pilots (Thatch weave)-USS Yorktown’s late launch schedule-etc., etc., etc...