Barnes_Marketing_Sector Analysis_SJC_
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US SINGLE TENANT REPORT Properties & Portfolios - $2.5 million or Greater Q4 2012 CAP RATE & VOLUME US Single-Tenant IND Actual Change Volume $ (mil) past 12 mos. 28,177.0 16% Q4 '12 8,795.5 16% Number of props past 12 mos. 2,775 26% Q4 '12 644 -23% Total sf past 12 mos. 226,432,625 1% Q4 '12 63,456,469 1% Price $/sf past 12 mos. 129 16% Q4 '12 155 28% Avg Cap Rate past 12 mos. 7.34% -0.25 Q4 '12 7.37% -0.01 CHANGE IN SALES BUYER TYPE MARKET PERFORMANCE Data Source: Stan Johnson Company Research Services and Real Capital Analytics 6.60% 6.80% 7.00% 7.20% 7.40% 7.60% 7.80% 8.00% 8.20% $- $2,000.0 $4,000.0 $6,000.0 $8,000.0 $10,000.0 $12,000.0 $14,000.0 Q1 '06 Q3 '06 Q1 '07 Q3 '07 Q1 '08 Q3 '08 Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Q1 '12 Q3 '12 Quarterly Vol. Cap Rate 20% 11% 12% 15% 55% 49% 44% 45% 8% 13% 16% 14% 7% 6% 7% 6% 9% 21% 21% 20% 2009 2010 2011 2012 User/Other Private Public Listed/REITs Cross-Border Institutional -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Q1 '06 Q3 '06 Q1 '07 Q3 '07 Q1 '08 Q3 '08 Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Q1 '12 Q3 '12 Change in Sales (Year Over Year)
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Transcript of Barnes_Marketing_Sector Analysis_SJC_
US SINGLE TENANT REPORT Properties & Portfolios - $2.5 million or Greater
Q4 2012
CAP RATE & VOLUME
US Single-Tenant IND Actual Change
Volume $ (mil) past 12 mos. 28,177.0 16%
Q4 '12 8,795.5 16%
Number of props past 12 mos. 2,775 26%
Q4 '12 644 -23%
Total sf past 12 mos. 226,432,625 1%
Q4 '12 63,456,469 1%
Price $/sf past 12 mos. 129 16%
Q4 '12 155 28%
Avg Cap Rate past 12 mos. 7.34% -0.25
Q4 '12 7.37% -0.01
CHANGE IN SALES
BUYER TYPE
MARKET PERFORMANCE
Data Source: Stan Johnson Company Research Services and Real Capital Analytics
6.60%
6.80%
7.00%
7.20%
7.40%
7.60%
7.80%
8.00%
8.20%
$-
$2,000.0
$4,000.0
$6,000.0
$8,000.0
$10,000.0
$12,000.0
$14,000.0
Q1 '06 Q3 '06 Q1 '07 Q3 '07 Q1 '08 Q3 '08 Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Q1 '12 Q3 '12
Quarterly Vol. Cap Rate
20%
11%
12%
15%
55%
49%
44%
45%
8%
13%
16%
14%
7%
6%
7%
6%
9%
21%
21%
20%
2009
2010
2011
2012
User/Other Private Public Listed/REITs Cross-Border Institutional -80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Q1 '06 Q3 '06 Q1 '07 Q3 '07 Q1 '08 Q3 '08 Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Q1 '12 Q3 '12
Change in Sales (Year Over Year)
US SINGLE TENANT RETAIL REPORT Properties & Portfolios - $2.5 million or Greater
Q4 2012
CAP RATE & VOLUME
US Single-Tenant IND Actual Change
Volume $ (mil) past 12 mos. 6,773.1 13%
Q4 '12 1,626.5 -12%
Number of props past 12 mos. 953 31%
Q4 '12 219 -30%
Total sf past 12 mos. 28,278,339 8%
Q4 '12 7,168,754 -11%
Price $/sf past 12 mos. 261 5%
Q4 '12 260 9%
Avg Cap Rate past 12 mos. 6.78% -0.51
Q4 '12 6.93% 0.37
CHANGE IN SALES
BUYER TYPE
MARKET PERFORMANCE
Data Source: Stan Johnson Company Research Services and Real Capital Analytics
6.25%
6.75%
7.25%
7.75%
8.25%
$-
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
$3,500.0
Q1 '06 Q3 '06 Q1 '07 Q3 '07 Q1 '08 Q3 '08 Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Q1 '12 Q3 '12
Quarterly Vol. Cap Rate
8%
13%
7%
10%
85%
70%
57%
53%
3%
8%
25%
20%
1%
3%
1%
6%
2%
5%
10%
11%
2009
2010
2011
2012 (YTD)
User/Other Private Public Listed/REITs Cross-Border Institutional-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Q1 '06 Q3 '06 Q1 '07 Q3 '07 Q1 '08 Q3 '08 Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Q1 '12 Q3 '12
Change in Sales (Year Over Year)
US SINGLE TENANT OFFICE REPORT Properties & Portfolios - $2.5 million or Greater
Q4 2012
CAP RATE & VOLUME
US Single-Tenant IND Actual Change
Volume $ (mil) past 12 mos. 9,321.7 25%
Q4 '12 3,902.5 69%
Number of props past 12 mos. 319 42%
Q4 '12 73 -23%
Total sf past 12 mos. 36,862,589 4%
Q4 '12 12,862,415 26%
Price $/sf past 12 mos. 274 27%
Q4 '12 325 33%
Avg Cap Rate past 12 mos. 7.80% 0.7
Q4 '12 7.94% -0.1
CHANGE IN SALES
BUYER TYPE
MARKET PERFORMANCE
Data Source: Stan Johnson Company Research Services and Real Capital Analytics
6.75%
7.25%
7.75%
8.25%
8.75%
$-
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
Q1 '06 Q3 '06 Q1 '07 Q3 '07 Q1 '08 Q3 '08 Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Q1 '12 Q3 '12
Quarterly Vol. Cap Rate
30%
12%
14%
24%
34%
34%
28%
35%
13%
17%
16%
11%
12%
9%
17%
5%
12%
28%
25%
24%
2009
2010
2011
2012 (YTD)
User/Other Private Public Listed/REITs Cross-Border Institutional-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Q1 '06 Q3 '06 Q1 '07 Q3 '07 Q1 '08 Q3 '08 Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Q1 '12 Q3 '12
Change in Sales (Year Over Year)
US SINGLE TENANT INDUSTRIAL REPORT Properties & Portfolios - $2.5 million or Greater
Q4 2012
CAP RATE & VOLUME
US Single-Tenant IND Actual Change
Volume $ (mil) past 12 mos. 9,026.5 7%
Q4 '12 2,595.7 -1%
Number of props past 12 mos. 628 15%
Q4 '12 160 -17%
Total sf past 12 mos. 133,461,824 -4%
Q4 '12 37,235,002 0%
Price $/sf past 12 mos. 68 10%
Q4 '12 69 -5%
Avg Cap Rate past 12 mos. 7.88% -0.12
Q4 '12 7.72% -0.31
CHANGE IN SALES
BUYER TYPE
MARKET PERFORMANCE
Data Source: Stan Johnson Company Research Services and Real Capital Analytics
6.75%
7.25%
7.75%
8.25%
8.75%
$-
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
$3,500.0
$4,000.0
Q1 '06 Q3 '06 Q1 '07 Q3 '07 Q1 '08 Q3 '08 Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Q1 '12 Q3 '12
Quarterly Vol. Cap Rate
23%
7%
12%
9%
38%
54%
42%
41%
11%
11%
13%
16%
10%
4%
5%
8%
18%
24%
28%
27%
2009
2010
2011
2012 (YTD)
User/Other Private Public Listed/REITs Cross-Border Institutional-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Q1 '06 Q3 '06 Q1 '07 Q3 '07 Q1 '08 Q3 '08 Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Q1 '12 Q3 '12
Change in Sales (Year Over Year)
US SINGLE TENANT REPORT Properties & Portfolios - $2.5 million or Greater
Q4 2012
SINGLE TENANT ANNUAL AVERAGE CAP RATES
Data Source: Stan Johnson Company Research Services and Real Capital Analytics
6.00%
6.50%
7.00%
7.50%
8.00%
8.50%
9.00%
9.50%
10.00%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Yiel
d
Year
OfficeAvg Cap
IndustrialAvg Cap
Retail AvgCap
OverallAvg Cap
US SINGLE TENANT REPORT Properties & Portfolios - $2.5 million or Greater
Q4 2012
SINGLE TENANT VERSUS ALTERNATIVE ASSET YIELDS
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average Asset Yields (2007-2012)ST OfficeAvg Cap
STIndustrialAvg Cap
ST RetailAvg Cap
STMedicalAvg Cap
10-YearTreasury
6-MonthCD Yield
Moody'sAaa BondYield
Moody'sBaa BondYield 7.85%
7.60%
7.22%
7.95%
1.65%
0.47%
3.71%
5.05%
13.11%
3.80%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
ST Office Avg Cap
ST Industrial Avg Cap
ST Retail Avg Cap
ST Medical Avg Cap
10-Year Treasury
6-Month CD Yield
Moody's Aaa Bond Yield
Moody's Baa Bond Yield
S&P 500 Annual Yield
State and Local Municipal Bond Yield
2012 Average Asset Yields AVERAGE ASSET YIELDS (2007 - 2012)
2012 AVERAGE ASSET YIELDS
US SINGLE TENANT REPORT Properties & Portfolios - $2.5 million or Greater
Q4 2012
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT: Andrew Barnes Associate Director, Lead Broker I San Francisco Office [email protected]
Stan Johnson Company 530 Lytton Ave, 2nd Fl Palo Alto, CA 94301
P: 650.617.3464
Phillip Bonina Associate Director I Los Angeles Office [email protected]
Stan Johnson Company 501 Santa Monica Blvd, Ste 420 Santa Monica, CA 90401
P: 310.752.0752
