1. Banking crisis, global recession and recovery

2. Total debt in the US and UK

3. Lest we forget.

• In 1989 private debt to GDP in Japan was 212%

• Now it is 110%

• Government debt to GDP rose over the same time from 51% to 178%

• Total debt is broadly unchanged and real GDP has been essentially flat

4. How have things played out so far?

• Collapse in manufacturing and trade

• De-leveraging in private sector has begun

• IMF talk about

• • Balance sheet recession

• • Globally synchronised downturn

• Policy measures halted the collapse

5. A recession of the North, Midlands and Wales

6. Regional Unemployment Rates

7. Low skilled cities hit harder

8. The fiscal hole

9. Government finances hit hard

10. Debt is expected to double

11. Debt to remain high for a generation (official version)

12. But low in a broad historical context!

13. Public spending * IFS & own calculations Thatcher Major Blair/Brown ?

14. Capital spend cut dramatically. Housing, transport and regen hit hard. Chart 9: possible departmental spending allocations (2011/12 2013/14) Source: IFS

15. Public sector vulnerability 2

16. Public sector growth 1998-2008

17. Knowledge Industries in Birmingham

18. Knowledge-Industries in Birmingham UK=1

19. Employment projections (Oxford Economics)

20. Birmingham well placed to benefit in certain sectors Financial, business and professional services gain big benefits from locating in large cities Agglomeration economies by sector High end BPS is unlikely to locate out of London, but the city will be attractive to - Relocation of back office, shared services and public sector