BANKING BUSINESS CREDIT RISK OVERVIEWbgeo.com/uploads/presentations/bgeo-investor-day-2017... ·...
Transcript of BANKING BUSINESS CREDIT RISK OVERVIEWbgeo.com/uploads/presentations/bgeo-investor-day-2017... ·...
BANKING BUSINESS CREDIT RISK OVERVIEW BGEO Investor Day 9 November 2017 Tbilisi, Georgia Speaker: Giorgi Chiladze, CRO, JSC Bank of Georgia
CONTENT
Cost of risk
Q&A
IFRS9 impact estimation
Banking Business loan portfolio overview
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LOAN PORTFOLIO DYNAMICS
NET BANKING BUSINESS LOAN PORTFOLIO
* Other mainly includes BNB, GLC and Banking Business eliminations ** Growth drivers in RB – Sep 16 to Sep 17:
• Mortgages- 43% • MSME – 42% • Consumer loans and credit card balances – 30%
1,348 1,613 2,067 2,796
3,902 4,541** 1,735
1,833 2,179
2,211
2,395 1,994
44 121
195
360
384 417
3,127 3,567
4,441
5,367
6,682 6,951 19%
14%
24%
21%
25%
22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sep 2017
GE
L M
illio
ns
RB CIB Other* Y-o-Y Growth Rate
3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Bank loans to GDP, %
LOANS TO GDP TREND
BANKING SECTOR CREDIT TO GDP*, %
* Based on NBG data
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Banking Penetration (Sector Loans to GDP)
Source: Central Banks, IMF, as of 31 Dec 2016
84.9%
74.7%
64.6%
62.1%
57.9%
56.9%
55.7%
53.2%
48.1%
41.4%
Estonia
Serbia
Russia
Lithuania
Latvia
Turkey
Georgia
Bulgaria
Armenia
Ukraine
1.3%
0.9% 1.0%
0.9% 0.7% 0.8%
1.1%
0.9% 1.0%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
0.5%
0.7%
1.3%
0.6% 0.6%
1.3%
0.9%
0.5%
0.7%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
1.0%
0.6%
0.9% 0.7%
0.5%
0.7% 0.9%
0.4% 0.5%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
STABLE LENDING ENVIRONMENT
MORTGAGES* – GEL 1,466 MILLION MSME – GEL 1,501 MILLION
* Includes RB and WM gross loans
30-90 DPD Portfolio
CONSUMER LOANS & CREDIT CARDS*– GEL 1,332 MILLION
EXPRESS & OTHER RETAIL*– GEL 353 MILLION
30-90 DPD Portfolio
30-90 DPD Portfolio 30-90 DPD Portfolio
1.5%
1.2%
1.6%
1.3% 1.1% 1.1%
1.4%
1.1% 1.1%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
5
16.8% 16.6%
15.7%
12.7%
11.8%
10.4%
10%
15%
20%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sep 2017
Top 10 Concentration
DIVERSIFIED EXPOSURE
CONCENCTRATION OF TOP 10 BORROWERS
EXPOSURE BY SECTOR AS OF SEP 2017*
* Sector breakdown based on gross Banking Business portfolio
Manufacturing,
8.6%
Real estate, 5.1%
Construction,
4.0%
Trade, 3.7%
Hospitality, 2.6%
Other Sectors,
10.8%
Consumer loans,
22.3%
Residential
mortgage loans,
20.2%
Micro loans,
13.4%
SME loans,
9.3%
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GEL and
other
currency
loans
26%**
USD loans
with USD
income
47%
USD loans
with non-
USD income
27%
DE-DOLLARISATION
BANKING BUSINESS* CIB CURRENCY BREAKDOWN
* Currency Breakdown based on gross loan portfolio ** Includes credit cards
73% 67% 72% 71% 71% 61%
27% 33% 28% 29% 29% 39%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sep 2017
Foreign Currency National Currency
RETAIL BANKING* RETAIL BANKING CURRENCY BREAKDOWN
50% 41% 50% 54% 60% 49%
50% 59% 50% 46% 40% 51%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sep 2017
Foreign Currency National Currency
GEL and
other
currency
loans
54%** USD loans
with USD
income
10%
USD loans
with non-
USD income
36%
7
47%
23% 29%
43%
23% 34%
0-3 Years 3-5 Years 5-10 Years >10 Years
Sep 2016 Sep 2017
97%
3%
93%
7%
0-3 Years 3-5 Years 5-10 Years >10 Years
Sep 2016 Sep 2017
35%
21%
35%
9%
34%
20%
34%
12%
0-3 Years 3-5 Years 5-10 Years >10 Years
Sep 2016 Sep 2017
PORTFOLIO AMORTISATION
MORTGAGES*– GEL 1,466 MILLION MSME – GEL 1,501 MILLION
* Based on RB and WM gross loan portfolio
GENERAL CONSUMER LOANS* – GEL 632 MILLION HOME EQUITY CONSUMER LOANS* – GEL 410 MILLION
77%
16% 7%
76%
17% 8%
0-3 Years 3-5 Years 5-10 Years >10 Years
Sep 2016 Sep 2017
Average duration 3.8 years
Average duration 1.2 years Average duration 2.6 years
Average duration 1.6 years
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HIGH LEVEL OF COLLATERALISATION
TOTAL LOAN BOOK BY COLLATERAL TYPES
SEP 2016 VS SEP 2017
65% 12%
4%
19%
69%
10%
3%
18%
Real Estate and Cash
Sureties
Movable Assets
Unsecured
• Inside end – Sep 2016 • Outside end – Sep 2017 • Based on standalone BOG data
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Capitalization
Average
STABLE REAL ESTATE ENVIRONMENT
* Based on NBG Data
REAL ESTATE INDICES*
(Average taken over 3Q07 and 3Q17)
CAPITALISATION (RENT TO PRICE) RATIO*
10
50
100
150
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Inflation adjusted Real estate price index (3Q17=100, GEL)
IMPROVING LOAN PORTFOLIO QUALITY
* Only real estate assets are used for coverage adjustment
BANKING BUSINESS NPL COMPOSITION BANKING BUSINESS NPL COVERAGE
100.0 120.9 122.8 161.4
202.0 179.6
21.8 16.1 18.8
45.0
54.6 69.2
4.5 7.9 12.0
34.7
38.2 48.3
126.3 144.9 153.6
241.1
294.8 297.1
3.9% 3.9% 3.4%
4.3% 4.2% 4.1%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sep 2017
GE
L m
illio
ns
CIB RB Other NPL/Gross Loan portfolio
86.3% 82.8%
67.5%
83.4% 86.7% 93.6%
111.5% 109.6% 110.6% 120.6%
132.1% 132.8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sep 2017
NPL Coverage
NPL Coverage adjusted by collateral value*
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CONTENTS
Cost of risk
Q&A
IFRS9 impact estimation
Banking Business loan portfolio overview
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COST OF RISK BANKING BUSINESS
RETAIL BANKING
1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
2.7% 2.7%
2.2%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M17
0.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2.6% 2.3%
2.8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M17
1.6%
0.8%
1.7%
2.2%
3.1%
1.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M17
CORPORATE & INVESTMENT BANKING
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COST OF RISK - RETAIL BANKING
COST OF RISK
3.2%
2.1%
2.5% 2.3%
2.4%
2.0%
3.4%
3.1%
2.0%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
NET CHARGE-OFF RATE
1.0%
0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
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COST OF RISK COMPOSITION
RB & WM GROSS LOAN BOOK FOR SEP 2017 GEL 4,651.1 MILLION
Low High
15.8%
3.1%
1.7%
0.4%
Dollarisation level
Express & Other Retail Loans
Consumer Loans & Credit Cards
Mortgages
MSME
Mortgages (8.1%)
MSME (12.4%)
Consumer Loans & Credit Cards (20.7%)
Express & Other Retail Loans (47.7%)
1,466
1,501
1,332
353
Gross Loan Book
0.13%
0.58%
0.88%
1.19%
Cost of Risk Decomposition
RB &WM 9M17
LOAN YIELD
RB &WM 9M17 COST OF RISK DECOMPOSITION
RB &WM 9M17
COST OF RISK – 2.8%
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CONTENTS
Cost of risk
Q&A
IFRS9 impact estimation
Banking Business loan portfolio overview
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IFRS 9 impact estimation
Estimated impact on Banking Business Shareholder Equity Key changes in impairment model
Staging IFRS 9 introduces new 3-stage expected loss model compared to 2-stage incurred loss model in IAS 39 Calculation of impairment Stage 1: 12 months expected credit losses Stage 2 and 3: lifetime expected credit
losses Macroeconomic parameters - Impairment under IFRS 9 is calculated based on forecasted macroeconomic parameters
No impact on Regulatory Capital
Reduction by GEL 44 million to GEL 58 million
Or by 2.7% to 3.6%
No change to Cost of Risk through the cycle
QUESTIONS? BGEO Investor Day 9 November 2017 Tbilisi, Georgia
DISCLAIMER – FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements concerning expectations, projections, objectives, targets, goals, strategies, future events, future revenues or performance, capital expenditures, financing needs, plans or intentions relating to acquisitions, competitive strengths and weaknesses, plans or goals relating to financial position and future operations and development. Although BGEO Group PLC believes that the expectations and opinions reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations and opinions will prove to have been correct. By their nature, these forward-looking statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and contingencies, and actual results and events could differ materially from those currently being anticipated as reflected in such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in forward-looking statements, certain of which are beyond our control, include, among other things: currency fluctuations, including depreciation of the Georgian Lari, and macroeconomic risk; corporate loan portfolio exposure risk; regional tensions; regulatory risk; cyber security, information systems and financial crime risk; investment business strategy risk; and other key factors that we have indicated could adversely affect our business and financial performance, which are contained elsewhere in this presentation and in our past and future filings and reports, including the 'Principal Risks and Uncertainties' included in BGEO Group PLC's Annual Report and Accounts 2016 and in its Half Year 2017 Results announcement. No part of this presentation constitutes, or shall be taken to constitute, an invitation or inducement to invest in BGEO Group PLC or any other entity, including any future entity such as BGEO Investments PLC or Bank of Georgia PLC, and must not be relied upon in any way in connection with any investment decision. BGEO Group PLC undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent legally required. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast.
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