Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance CEO Conference · 2010-09-30 · Bank of America...

40
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance CEO Conference London, 30 September 2010 Christian Clausen Group CEO

Transcript of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance CEO Conference · 2010-09-30 · Bank of America...

Page 1: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance CEO Conference · 2010-09-30 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance CEO Conference London, 30 September 2010 ... H1

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance CEO Conference London, 30 September 2010

Christian ClausenGroup CEO

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Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Nordea believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward- looking statements as a result of various factors.

Important factors that may cause such a difference for Nordea include, but are not limited to: (i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the competitive climate, (iii) change in the regulatory environment and other government actions and (iv) change in interest rate and foreign exchange rate levels.

This presentation does not imply that Nordea has undertaken to revise these forward- looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.

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A well diversified, fast growing and high-quality operation

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CMB

Large

OtherNordic PB

Gold

Other

Income well split between corporate and household customer segments

Strong growth trend in all corporate segments and in Gold and Private Banking

Diversified and fast growing customer operation

Income split per customer segment, Q210 Income growth YoY Q210/Q209, %

-10%

0%

10%

20%

CMBLargeOtherNEM

ShippingFin inst

Nordic P

B GoldOtherNEM

Int'l PB

Total

Int’l PB

NEMShipping

Corp

orat

e

Hous

ehol

d

NEM

Fin inst

Corporate Household

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Diversification inherent strength in Nordea

Household mortgage

Consumer

Real estate

Industrial commercial

services

Financial inst

Consumer staples

Retail trade

Shipping

Transport

Construction

Other corporate

56% corporate lending and 44% household

Only one industry account for more than 10% of total lending

87% of the portfolio in the Nordic countries

NB Denmark

NB Sweden

NB Finland

NB Norway

BalticsPoland

Russia

Shipping

Fin inst incl repos

Credit portfolio by sector Credit portfolio by customer area/ geography

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6 Source: company information and reports

Nordea one of few AA rated banksProfit orientation

and prudence

Ratings, September 2010S&P long-term Moody’s long-term

BBVA AA Aa2Santander AA Aa2BNP Paribas AA Aa2Nordea AA- Aa2Handelsbanken AA- Aa2

Intesa Sanpaolo A+ Aa2Société Générale A+ Aa2DnB NOR A+ Aa3Lloyds A+ Aa3Danske Bank A Aa3UniCredit A Aa3Commerzbank A Aa3Erste Bank A Aa3

Barclays A+ A1SEB A A1RBS A A1Swedbank A A2KBC A- A1AIB A- A1Bank of Ireland A- A1

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Funding operation based on multiple sources

Nordea Hypotek SEK, 20%

Nordea Hypotek EMTN, 7%

Nordea Kredit DKK, 33%

Nordea Hypotek Reg CB, 1%

Nordea Kredit EUR, 3%Eiendomskreditt NOK, 4%

Nordea Bank FinlandMTN Structured, 6%

Nordea EMTN, 12%

Nordea MTN plain, 0%

Subord., 6%USMTN, 2 %

Nordea Stand alone, 3%

Gov’t gteed, 1%NY US CD, 2%

Outstanding long-term funding

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Broad funding base and high activity – record EUR 25bn issued already this year

Accumulated long term funding (excl Nordea Kredit))

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

€ m

2008 2009 2010

Latest transactions in 2010EUR 1bn 3-year FRN in June –3-month Euribor +75 bps

EUR 1.25bn 10-year fixed rate in June –midswap +110 bps – the first fixed rate senior deal in two months as Nordea reopened the market

EUR 1.25bn 5-year fixed rate in August –midswap +73 bps – the first fixed rate FIG benchmark post summer

Strong covered bond platformDomestic issuance continues as normal in Danish and Swedish covered bond markets

First issuance by Nordea Eiendomskreditt in August in the Norwegian domestic covered bond market

Nordea Bank Finland – covered bond platform under establishment

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%

Source: Swedish Riksbank, Standard & Poor’s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Nor

dea

HSB

C

DnB

NO

R

Dex

ia

SEB

Sw

edba

nk

SHB

KB

C

Sant

ande

r

Bar

clay

s

Cre

dit S

uiss

e

Cre

dit A

gric

ole

Soc

iété

Gén

éral

e

LBBW

Uni

Cre

dit

Inte

sa S

anpa

olo

Dan

ske

Ban

k

Deu

tsch

e Ba

nk

BN

P P

arib

as AIB

Bay

eris

che

LB

UBS

Citig

roup

Strong capital position in a global perspective

Risk-adjusted capital ratios

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One of the most stable profit development among banks in Europe

Profit before tax development through the financial crisis (Indexed)

Index = 100

* Aggregate of a selected number of banks in the European peer group: BBVA, Commerzbank, Erste, Intesa Sanpaolo, KBC, Santander, UniCredit

** Nordic peers: Danske Bank, DnB NOR, SEB, SHB, Swedbank

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

07Q1

07Q2

07Q3

07Q4

08Q1

08Q2

08Q3

08Q4

09Q1

09Q2

09Q3

09Q4

10Q1

Nordea

European peers*Nordic peers**

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Customer satisfaction improving versus competitors

Nordea

2007 2009

Peers

-0.6 3.9

71.267.6

70.6+0.9

- 3.6

CSI index (aggregate) 2007-2009*

71.5

*Corporate and high involvement customers, corresponding to Gold and Silver segment customers

Values

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The history of Nordea – 10 years of success

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Nordea created through a string of mergers

From the start:- Around 300 banks

1970s: 80 banks 1980s: 30 banks1990s: 4 banks

2010: Nordea- One operating model- Unique diversification- Proven business model

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An outstanding starting point in nine markets

Nordea home marketsNordea home markets

Distribution power1,400 branches and 6 million e-banking customers

11 million customers9 home marketsApprox. 10m personal customers750 000 corporates, incl. Nordic Top 500

Financial strengthEUR 9bn in Income (2009)

EUR 571bn of Assets (2009)

EUR 23bn in equity capital

AA credit rating

EUR 31bn in market capOne of the largest Nordic corporationsA top 10 European retail bank1 of 2 Nordic Forbes 100 companies

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0%

50%

100%

150%

Lend

ing

Depos

its

Incom

e

Expen

ses

Profit b

. loan

loss

es

Nordea was renamed at an EGM in November 2000

More than doubling of lending and deposit volumes as well as profit before loan losses

Considerable cost/income ratio improvement from 64% to 53%

10 years of success…

10-year growth, % (H1/10 annualised compared to Q4/00 annualised )

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000

2010

Cost/income ratio, % (H1/10 annualised compared to Q4/00 annualised )

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-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

H1

2002

H2

2002

H1

2003

H2

2003

H1

2004

H2

2004

H1

2005

H2

2005

H1

2006

H2

2006

H1

2007

H2

2007

H1

2008

H2

2008

H1

2009

H2

2009

H1

2010

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

bps

…with strong credit management

Credit risk appetite 25 bps

Loan loss ratio

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30.9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Allied Irish BanksBank of IrelandCommerzbank

ErsteSwedbank

SEBDanske Bank

KBCSHB

DnBNORIntesa Sanpaolo

NordeaSociete Generale

RBSBBVA

UnicreditBarclays

LloydsBNP Paribas

Santander

…has created a sizeable European bank

EURbn

Source: ThomsonReuters Datastream

Market capitalisation (15 September 2010)

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The current trend for Nordea

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Macroeconomic stabilisation in the Nordic region

Growth rates expected to be solid in the Nordic countries

In 2010, all Nordic countries are expected to have:

Positive growth rates

Modest inflation

Relatively strong public finances

Improvements in labour markets

GDP growth, %, y/y

Source: Nordea Markets

Public finances, % of GDP

08 09 10 11 12-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0 % of GDP % of GDP

USA

Euro area

Denmark

Finland

Sweden

Norway +12-18%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q409 10

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5% y/y GDP % y/y

Sweden Denmark Norway Finland

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Result highlights

EURm H1/10 H1/09 Chg % H2/09 Chg %

Net interest income 2,484 2,661 -7 2,620 -5

Net fee and commission income 1,013 793 28 900 13

Net result from items at fair value 887 1,109 -20 837 6

Other income 80 75 7 78 3

Total income 4,464 4,638 -4 4,435 1

Staff costs -1,388 -1,352 3 -1,372 1

Total expenses -2,350 -2,206 7 -2,306 2

Profit before loan losses 2,114 2,432 -13 2,129 -1

Net loan losses -506 -781 -35 -705 -28

Operating profit 1,608 1,651 -3 1,424 13

Net profit 1,182 1,245 -5 1,073 10

Risk-adjusted profit 1,194 1,524 -22 1,262 -5

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1,305 1,2991,235 1,249

1,321

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

EURm

Net interest income held up well in H1 2010, despite the low interest rate level

Solid trend in customer operations continues

Lending and deposit volumes up

Margins stable

Remains subdued by the low interest rate levels

Lower contribution from Group Treasury

Slight increase in average funding cost when maturing long-term funding was prolonged at higher market rates

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EURm

687 702 687 701

392 382471 438 445

670

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Staff costs Other expenses

1 116 1 087

1 2191 164

Expenses in line with outlook

1 186Cost management remains firm

Increase in H1 2010 related to Group initiatives and currency effects

Total expenses up 7% compared to last year

Up 2% adjusted for currency effects

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468

-91

425413

-82

358452

-135

346358

-97

261316

-128

245

58

4827

29

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Gross loan losses Danish guarantee scheme

DK, 42%

OTHER, 2%NEM, 17%

SOSI, 6%SE, 0%NO, 4%

FI, 29%

Loan losses by area Q2 2010

EURm

Credit quality improving during 2010

Net loan losses down to 36 bps in H1 2010 (55 bps last year)

30 bps individual (42 bps)

6 bps collective (13 bps)

140 bps in the Baltic countries (166 bps)

Excluding guarantee scheme provisions, net loan loss ratio down to 32 bps (51 bps)

Decreased loan losses in most areas

Impaired loans gross down 1% in Q252% of impaired loans performing

Reversals Net loan losses

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The future - Journey to Great Nordea

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Great Nordea framework

Profit orientation & prudence

Ambitious vision & targets

Strong customer- oriented values &

culture

Growth to free up resources to improve customer satisfactionGrowth to create value to our shareholders

Through the cycle approach – careful navigation between risks and opportunities

Need to set targets to be able to reach the goalsMotivation to perform extraordinarily

Nine countries, and everything differentCommon values and platform to form one team

Rationale

Clear growth strategy

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Delivery on long-term targets

Top quartile

Total shareholder return 1 Jan 2007- 16 Aug 2010

Risk-adjusted profit rolling 4 quarters development

2007 – Q2 2010

RoE 2007 – Q2 2010Nordea has reported one of the highest average return on equity (RoE) of Nordic

peers¹, 14.4%¹Nordic peers: Danske Bank, DnB NOR, SEB, SHB, Swedbank

41.4%

25.5%

Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q4/ 08 Q1/ 09 Q2/ 09 Q3/ 09 Q4/ 09 Q1/ 10 Q2/ 10

Rolling four quarters compared with FY 2006 EUR 1,957mLong-term target for average yearly growth

Ambitious vision & targets

0.0

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

Allie

d Iri

sh B

anks

RBS

Ban

k of

Irel

and

Com

mer

zban

k

Lloy

ds

KB

C

Uni

cred

it

Soc

iete

Gen

eral

e

Sw

edba

nk

SEB

Inte

sa S

anpa

olo

Bar

clay

s

Dan

ske

Ban

k

Ers

te

BB

VA

BN

P P

arib

as

San

tand

er

Nor

dea

DnB

NO

R

SH

B

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Strong customer-oriented values and culture – become part of DNA

Foundation:Profit orientation and

prudent cost, risk and capital management

A Great European Bank,acknowledged for its people, creating

superior value for customers and shareholders

Great customer experiences It’s all about people One Nordea team

Values

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Prudent growth strategy – Group initiatives and strong business development

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We continue on the journey to Great and to deliver on our long-term target

Great Nordea

07 08 09 10 11 12

Middle of the road

Keep income growth momentum

Cost, risk and capital take the lead

Enable us to accelerate out of the crisis

Profitable organic growth Prudent growth

Organic growth strategy Next level strategy based on stronger position

Group initiatives launched to support the strategy

Next generation of initiatives launched

Growth strategy

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Clear growth strategy

HouseholdNew Markets

Efficient value chain delivery to customer segmentsUpgrade IT infrastructure and processes and back office operationsReplacing multiple old stand-alone platforms (cards and payments) with one uniform platform per product area

Corporate New European Markets

Growth strategy

Migrate existing customers to relationship segmentsAttract new customers to relationship segmentsIncrease advisory capacityReduce cost by multichannel

Increase market share with largest customersProactive advise on ancillary products to Medium customers

Continue successful organic growth path in Poland

Efficiency initiatives

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Household relationship strategy

Household

Growth strategy

Higher income and growth potential

More loyal

Low risk

Efficient to serve

5 x higher income in PB vs. Gold4 x higher income in Gold vs. Silver13% income growth in Gold and PB segments last 12 months

Customer benefits: Relationship-based and prioritized access to named advisor, long-term view on relationship, attractive prices

CSI scores 3-7 points higher in Gold and PB segments than in rest of Household

Sale of all products through the Gold dedicated 360° advisory meetingTransactions and daily services through lower cost to serve channels

6 bps in loan losses for household mortgages in H12010

Migrate existing customers to relationship segmentsAttract new customers to relationship segmentsIncrease advisory capacityReduce cost by multichannel

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Solid trend accelerated in 2010 – 7% more customers from one year ago

110,000 new Gold and Private Banking customers in H1 2010 – more than 70% new customers in Nordea

Improved market share in all countries

Continued strong customer demand in household segment – increased volumes with stable margins

Total income in household segment up 5%

Household strategy delivery: + 7% in H1

2,6902,812

2,885

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Number of Gold customers, ‘000

0.3

0.1 0.1

0.2

DK FI NO SE

Lending market share increase, %

Growth strategy

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Corporate relationship strategy

Corporate

Growth strategy

Higher income and potential

All products

Customer benefits: Relationship-based advise, access to Nordea’s products and balance sheet capacity, competitive prices, and a partner for a rainy day

Close, partnership based relationships

75% of Corporate income from CMB and Large, < 5% of number of Corporate customersBalanced, diversified product mix: lending, deposits, transactions, risk management and corporate finance

Growth at lower risk than existing portfolio – average risk weights 1%-point down in 2010

Mutual commitment and knowing your customer, provide help also in difficult timesTop ranked in GreenwichUp to 7 points higher CSI scores with CMB and Large segments

Prudent risk taking

Increase market share with largest customersProactive advise on new products to Medium customers

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136 139 144

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Increased business confidence - lending volumes up 4% in H1 2010

Continued strong demand for risk management products

Improved market share in Corporate Banking - strategy to build house-bank relations proven successful

Corporate strategy delivery: Income + 7% in H1

Corporate lending, EURbn

0.1 0.1

-0.1

0.1

DK FI NO SE

Lending market share increase, %

Growth strategy

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Rating distribution

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

6+ 6 6- 5+ 5 5- 4+ 4 4- 3+ 3 3- 2+ 2 2- 1+ 1 1-

Rating

EAD

(%)

06.2010 12.2009

Improved average risk weights following growth focused to stronger corporates

Decreases during 1H 2010Increases during 1H 2010

Growth strategy

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Increase in corporate lending margins

Corporate lending margins, average in the lending book, %

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Banking Denmark

Banking Norway

Nordic Banking total

Banking Finland

Banking Sweden

Growth strategy

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New European Markets strategyGrowth strategy

High potential

Proven track record

Low risk

Nordic model

High GDP growth (now ~2x Nordic), and growth in penetration of banking products (bringing growth to ~3x)

110 + 50 branches opened14x more Gold customers in H12010 vs. H12006Operating profit doubled H12010 vs. H12009

Loan losses of 5 bps in 2009

Application of Nordic business model and customer concepts with focus on Gold segment

New European Markets

Continue successful organic growth path in Poland

Customer benefits: Nordic business model and conceptsRelationship and advise in focusPrudent banking

New European Markets: Russia, Poland and the Baltic countries

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New European Markets: A growth area for Nordea

Strong growth over time…

…driven by positive development in Poland and Russia

Costs well under control – C/I-ratio down to 44% in 2009

Baltic countries back to profitability in 2Q10

Profitable growth – RAROCAR 22% in H12010

CAGR 63%

60 65117

151

206

275 268255

317

H106

H206

H107

H207

H108

H208

H109

H209

H110

NEM income, EURm

Growth strategy

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Concluding remarks

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Key messagesNordea has a uniquely diversified operation

Nordea has a proven record of growth and improving efficiency

Continued strong trend in customer businessIncome from corporate customers up 7% and from household customers up 5% in H1

Increased lending, deposits and AuM volumes

Solid inflow of new customers – increased market shares in all markets

Positive development in corporate finance business – relationship banking approach further strengthened

Focus on prudent growth and the execution of the Group initiativesOn track in all areas