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Bangladesh Earthquake Risk Mitigation Program May 23, 2012

Volkan Sevilgen &

Ross Stein

USGS

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Volkan Sevilgen &

Ross Stein

USGS

Date of

great

quake

Earthquakes from Roger Bilham (Science, 2006)

Population from Landscan (Oak Ridge Nat. Lab., 2004)

Plate motion

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High Seismic Exposure

• Bangladesh is seismically active

• Dhaka is ranked among the 20 cities most vulnerable to earthquakes across the world

• No major earthquakes recently, but 3 events in the past year

• Major fault is less than 60 km from Dhaka

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High Vulnerability to Seismic Events

• Population of Dhaka: 15 million and one of the fastest growing cities in the world

• Widespread poverty

– 28% below the poverty line

– 3.4 million citizens live in slums

– 30% lack access to sanitation services

• Challenges of rapid urbanization

– Uncontrolled rural to urban migration

– Lack of land-use planning

– Dearth of government regulations and building standards

• Complex governance structures

– Overlapping authority in urban planning

– Political conflict leads to lack of decision-making

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Earthquake Risk Mitigation Program

1. Build consensus among stakeholders supporting seismic risk reduction

2. Create hazard and vulnerability data platform as a tool for planners, developers, and policymakers

3. Generate widespread understanding of seismic hazards and ways in which risks can be reduced

4. Develop a seismic engineering certification program and mason and bar-bender training program to promote seismic resilient construction

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The program will engage stakeholders in a three-year process to increase collective understanding of risk, identify major disincentives for resilient development, support planning for prevention, and gradually shift toward a more proactive approach to resilient development.

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Phased Approach to National Earthquake Risk Management Strategy and Action Plan

Establishment of Institutional Framework, Data, Communication and Capacity Building Platform for Multi-stakeholder Engagement

Preliminary Elements for Dhaka City Strategy

Final Elements for Dhaka City Strategy

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Education, Communication

and Outreach

Training and Capacity

Building

Information and

Communication Technology

Platforms for Multi-

stakeholder Engagement

Hazard, Vulnerability and

Risk Analysis

Legal and Institutional

Arrangements

Land Use Planning

Disaster Management

Systems

Resiliency of Slums and

Shelters

Resiliency of Water &

Sewage Systems

Development of Dhaka and National Strategy

Dhaka Earthquake Risk

Management Plan

National Earthquake

Risk Management

Strategy

Development of Resiliency

Indicators

Hazard, Vulnerability and

Risk Analysis

Legal and Institutional

Arrangements

Land Use Planning

Capacity Building for Engineers and Builders

Building Code Enforcement

and Implementation Certification of Engineers

and Architects

Training of Masons and Bar

Benders

Scaling,

Testing and

Validating

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Phase 1: Build the Foundation

• Development of an institutional structure and capacity building platform for multi-stakeholder engagement

– Ministry of Housing and Public Works (MoHPW)

– Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM)

– Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development, and Cooperatives (MoLGRD)

• Information and Communication Technology and education campaign – Build the knowledge base for an informed constituency

– Encourage decision making based on rigorous scientific evaluation and consensus building exercises.

• Technical review and analysis – Earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk data gathering and gap analysis

– Evaluate legal and institutional arrangements to create the “enabling environment” for developing an Earthquake Risk Management Strategy

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Phases 1-3: Training and Capacity Building

• Building Code Formulation, Enforcement and Implementation

• Earthquake Resilient Engineering Training and Certification Program

• Earthquake Resilient Training of Masons and Bar Benders

• Pilot Structure Construction with Resiliency to Earthquakes

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Phase 2: Finalize Elements of the Strategy

• Earthquake Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Analysis – Technical review of studies already completed by other agencies

– Data to provide comprehensive scientific information to relevant decision-makers

• Legal and Institutional Arrangements – Technical review of acts and policies related to disaster risk management

– Establish clear understanding of institutional linkages and reporting mechanisms

• Land Use Planning – Integrate hazard, vulnerability and risk parameters in existing plans and mechanisms

– Develop guidelines and systems for risk-sensitive land use planning in Dhaka

• Disaster/Emergency Management System – Review of current emergency/disaster management system and identification of gaps

– Conceptualize a local Emergency Operations Plan to include Emergency Support Function System and Incident Response System

• Earthquake Risk Resiliency of Slums, Shelters and Water Systems – Assess the resiliency of the delivery of critical services and infrastructure and develop

concrete plans for improvement 13

Phase 3: Scaling to the National Level

• Dhaka Earthquake Risk Management Plan – Priority action items that can be implemented in a relatively short term (3-4 years)

– Develop an implementation of immediate and short term investments

• National Earthquake Risk Management Strategy and Action Plan – National earthquake strategy will build on policies and programs in place

– Establish priorities for investments and to tailor approaches based on the level of hazard and risk in various regions

• Resiliency Indicators – Participatory workshops with stakeholders for ranking and scoring of indicators

– Rationalize selection of draft indicators and the provisions for implementation

– Adoption and use of such indicators by stakeholders will be used as an evaluation and monitoring tool

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