Bangladesh Delta Plan

BANGLADESH DELTA PLAN 2100

Giasuddin Choudhury, Deputy Team Leader

Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100

An Introduction to Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 Formulation Process GOB General Economic Division (GED) Planning Commission and GoN Embassy of Kingdom of The Netherlands (EKN) Bangladesh Dutch Delta

Advisory Services (BanDuDeltAS)

Eleva&on in meter

Land Classifica&on

•  Area :147 570 km² •  Hills : 12% •  Terraces : 8% •  Floodplains : 80%

Bangladesh Delta: A very dynamic

Delta Challenges Bangladesh aspires to be middle income country by 2021 •  Present growth : 6% (last 10 years) •  Forecasted growth : 6.7-‐7.5 (next five years) However, we face many challenges Socio-‐economic snap-‐shot •  HDI ranking (2013) : 146th out of 186 countries •  GHI ranking I2012) : 68th out of 79 countries Demography •  Popula&on : 156 million •  Popula&on density : 1015/km² (2011 census) •  Popula&on growth : 1.37%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1974

1981

1991

2001

2011

2025

2050

Popu

latio

n in

Tho

usan

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Year

Census Popula&on Projected Popula&on

Population Growth & Land Use Change

181million

224 million

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1974-‐7

1976-‐7

1978-‐7

1980-‐8

1982-‐8

1984-‐8

1986-‐8

1988-‐8

1990-‐9

1992-‐9

1994-‐9

1996-‐9

1998-‐9

2000-‐0

2002-‐0

2004-‐0

2006-‐0

2008-‐0

Lac he

ctare

Agriculture Land Decreasing

1974 : 9.4 Mha 2008  : 8.6 Mha 2050 : 7.5 Mha (projected)

Source: NWMP

Delta Challenges

Hazard Class Map

Ranking of mul&-‐hazard maps used for preparing the risk-‐index : v  Cyclone : High risk-‐5, risk-‐3,wind risk-‐ 1 v  Flood : Severely flooded due to major river floods – 3,

flash flood due to major river-‐2, other flood-‐1 v  Riverbank erosion : Severe erosion-‐2, erosion -‐1 v  Drought : Very severe drought prone areas – 2, severe

drought-‐1

Copyright BanDuDeltAS - 2014 7

I. Mission, Organization, and Workplan

I. Mission, Organization, and Workplan Mission: Role in achieving national goals

So a strategic plan is required comprises a: "   long term (50 to 100 year), "   integrated and holistic vision and strategy, "   to improve safe living and sound economic development in the Bangladesh delta, "   while taking climate change into account, "   with a widespread socio-political support "   while short term results of measures and actions are needed to solve urgent

problems; an umbrella plan. “[…] to realize a sustainable delta vision, long term strategy and plan, agreed with

the relevant stakeholders, for an optimum level of water safety and food security as well as economic growth and a framework for its implementation.”

"   As such, BDP 2100 should be seen as an indicative plan. "   Emphasis on adequate governance is important to ensure that BDP 2100 will be

implementable and acted upon.


I.  BDP 2100 Challenges

BDP 2100 challenges in achieving national goals Challenges: "   Facing water resources problems, related issues e.g. climate change "  Need for long term holistic vision / strategy / plan / investments for better

future water and land management "   Institutional and governance setting, making BDP 2100 approach possible

and implementable Key points: "   Long term (50 to 100 year) Delta Vision "  Holistic approach with 19 themes "   Scenario based adaptive strategies and interventions "  Climate change one of the main drivers "  Widespread socio-political support "   Input for 7th Five Year Plan early 2015 "  Governance ensuring an implementable BDP 2100 "  Coordinated action for short term investment and implementation

Copyright Bandudeltas - 2014 9

I. Mission, Organization, and Workplan

Interactive Strategic Planning process Governance, Content, and Stakeholders will come together, via learning cycles


III. Interactive strategic planning

III. Interactive strategic planning Developing Delta Vision (Perspective)

“A more or less coherent set of vision elements (principles, values, aspirations) of an actor or coalition of a desirable delta development and the goals related to its realization.”

"   Such a development can be a climate proof delta, a competing delta or a sustainable delta. Being a complex adaptive system, for deltas such a strategic vision or perspective is probably more likely to be a direction than an end-picture.

Design of Adap3ve Delta Plan

Implementa3on & Investment Plan

Monitoring of Project Ac3vi3es as per the BDP-‐2100

De l t a

At e l i e r s

TT

Interact ion

GC

Current Policy Situa3on

Sectoral status

Drivers/Pressures

Integrated Analysis

Interpreta3on and Visioning

Formula3on of Delta Vision

Development of Assessment Framework

Scenario Development

Analysis of Strategies

Adapta3on Pathways

Crea3ng Governance and Legal Framework

Ins3tu3onal Development & Capacity Building

Sectoral Transla3on and Prepara3on

Dissemina3on and Localiza3on

Financial Arrangements

ADAPTIVE POLICY PATHWAYS BASELINE STUDIES DELTA FRAMEWORK

7th Five Year Plan

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II. Preparing the Ground

Themes for Baseline Studies Water Resources I.  Morphological dynamics of

Bangladesh Delta II.  Water resources III.  Coastal Polder issues

Water Supply and Sanitation I.  Public heath, water supply and

sanitation Disaster Risk Reduction I.  Climate change issues II.  Disaster management Spatial Planning I.  Land resources II.  Urbanization and settlement Food Security I.  Agriculture and food security

II.  Fisheries and livestock Environmental Management I.  Ecological Settings II.  Forests and biodiversity III.  Environmental pollution

Economics and Finance I.  Growth of Population and

Management in the context of resources setting

II.  Socio-economic and demographic condition

III.  Sustainable Transportation Infrastructures

Governance I.  Information and creation of

knowledge management Institution

II.  Institutional framework/arrangement

III.  Regional cooperation

19 themes to be studied The 19 Baseline Studies include: -  ToC; ToR; Study Plan -  Study of Baseline Conditions, current approaches and issues -  Possible solutions -  Use of Delta Ateliers & Touch Table for broad consultation

Integrated Analysis -  Hot Spots -  Delta Vision

Major Hotspots of Delta Plan

q  Mighty rivers q  Coastal areas q  Dhaka and other

major ci&es q  Haor-‐areas in the

North-‐East q  Drought prone

areas in the North-‐West

Feni

Bhola

Dhaka

Pabna

Bogra

Khulna

Narail

Magura

Natore

Sylhet

Barguna

Barisal

Jessore

Comilla

Rajbari

Kushtia

Gazipur

Tangail

Naogaon

Sherpur

Rangpur

Pirojpur

Bagerhat

SatkhiraNoakhali

Chandpur

Faridpur

Meherpur

Rajshahi

Habiganj

Jamalpur

Dinajpur Kurigram

Bandarban

Jhalokati

Rangamati

Gopalganj

Madaripur

Jhenaidah

Chuadanga

Manikganj

Narsingdi

Sirajganj

Nawabganj

NetrakonaSunamganj

Joypurhat

Gaibandha

ChittagongPatuakhali

Lakshmipur

Shariatpur

Munshiganj

Mymensingh

NilphamariThakurgaon

Panchagarh

Cox's Bazar

Narayanganj

KishoreganjMaulvibazar

Lalmonirhat

Khagrachhari

Brahamanbaria ´

B a y o f B e n g a l

India

India

India

Myanmar

•  Atlas per hotspot summarizing and visualizing the results of the baseline studies

•  Making scien3fic

informa3on accessible and visible

Copyright Bandudeltas - 2014 14 10/23/14

Informa3on Portal An Example of Climate Change Atlas

www.bandudeltas.org

Road # 83, House # 13/A , NE(K), Level 5 Gulshan-2, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh

Bangladesh Delta Plan

Government & Nonprofit

Transcript of Bangladesh Delta Plan