Baltic Port Barometer 2010

PORT DEVELOPMENT IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION VIEWS OF THE BALTIC PORTS FOR THE YEAR 2011

Centre for Maritime Studies University of Turku

A PUBLICATION FROM THE CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

UNIVERSITY OF TURKU

BALTIC PORT BAROMETER 2010

Port development in the Baltic Sea RegionViews of the Baltic ports for the year 2011

September 2010

UNIVERSITY OF TURKUTurku 2010

ISBN 978-951-29-4380-7

Baltic Port Barometer 2010

C O N T E N T S

SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................2

COMMENTARY .................................................................................................................3

INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................4

THE RESPONDENTS TO THE SURVEY .................................................................................5

BALTIC PORT INDEX .........................................................................................................6

PORTS’ VIEWS ON DEVELOPMENT FOR 2010 ...................................................................7

Total cargo volumes in 2010 .....................................................................................7

PORTS’ VIEWS ON DEVELOPMENT FOR 2011 ...................................................................8

Baltic Sea region economy in 2011 ............................................................................8

Total cargo volumes in 2011 .....................................................................................9

When back to peak cargo volumes? ........................................................................10

Dry bulk, liquid bulk and other dry cargo volumes in 2011 ......................................11

Container, ro-ro and project cargo volumes in 2011................................................12

Passenger traffic in 2011 .........................................................................................13

Profitability in 2011 .................................................................................................13

Capacity in 2011 ......................................................................................................14

Investments in 2011 ................................................................................................15

Bottlenecks .............................................................................................................16

PORTS AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES...............................................................................17

Cargo structure .......................................................................................................17

Ships calling in ports................................................................................................18

Upcoming sulphur regulation ..................................................................................19


Centre for Maritime StudiesUniversity of Turku

S U M M A R Y


Moderate growth in cargo volumes and in econ-omy expected for 2011

Respondents of the Barometer are almost unani-mous in their view of the development of econ-omy in the Baltic Sea region and of the develop-ment of their own cargo volumes: approximatelynine out of ten are expecting growth for 2011. Theshort-term outlook has improved notably sincelast year although most respondents foresee onlymoderate growth for 2011.

Most positive views regarding cargo volume de-velopment are found among big ports’ and mid-dle-sized ports’ groups, in a group of ports havingmixed cargo structure and in the ports located inthe eastern coast of the Baltic Sea. On the otherhand, confidence in positive cargo developmenthas strengthened most among the small portscompared with the last year’s barometer.

Best outlook for non-bulk cargo

Prospects for all cargo types are good but ‘otherdry cargo’ market (including unitized cargo) isexpected to develop better than bulk cargo mar-ket in the Baltic Sea in 2011. The rise in expecta-tions since the previous Barometer has beengreatest in ‘other dry cargo’ segment and in drybulk segment.

Back to peak cargo levels not before 2012 or2013 despite positive outlook for 2011

The Baltic Port Index (BPI) that gives a generaloverview of ports’ expectations for the upcomingyear in the Baltic Sea has risen notably since lastyear. It is at 50 now (18 last year), indicating posi-tive outlook for 2011 in the port sector. However,ports are expecting that peak cargo volume levelsthat were experienced just before current eco-nomic downturn will not be reached again in theBaltic Sea before 2012 or 2013.

Capacity and investments to increase in manyports

More respondents report future capacity in-creases and port investments compared with thelast year’s Barometer. Over half of the respon-dents report that the capacity in their port willincrease in 2011. Similarly, over half foreseehigher investments in their port for 2011. Theshare of the ports expecting higher investments isthe biggest among ports located in the easterncoast of the Baltic Sea and in mixed cargo ports.

Changes in cargo structure and in vessel size

Majority of ports have reported changes in theircargo structure since the beginning of 2009. Therehas been volatility in certain cargo types duringthe last two years. Another notable short-termtrend that has been detected is the increase in thesize of vessels visiting ports since the beginning of2009.

Background to the survey

A total of 49 seaport authorities around the BalticSea participated in the third Baltic Port Barometersurvey, conducted during two months in June-August 2010. The survey was conducted by theCentre for Maritime Studies at the University ofTurku, Finland, in co-operation with the BalticPorts Organization (BPO).

[ 3 ] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

C O M M E N T A R Y

Optimism in the air

Market confidence has become notably stronger among the Baltic Sea region (BSR) ports. Some ports areexpecting strong volume growth for the year 2011, mostly in the eastern part of the BSR, yet almost allports expect at least some growth. It is likely that the development of ports will be more uneven in the BSRin the current year than in 2011.

Compared with the last year’s Barometer, the results from the 2010 Barometer indicate stronger confi-dence in BSR economic development throughout the region. Somewhat polarized growth expectations in2009 for 2010 have now changed to visibly more widespread positive expectations for 2011. This samechange in confidence applies also to cargo volume development. The change in sentiment is most visibleamong the small ports in the BSR. In different cargo segments, confidence in positive market developmenthas mostly developed in dry bulk, and in other dry cargo (including all unitized cargo) and container seg-ments when comparing to the year 2009.

Still, it is evident that the expected rapid recovery of cargo flows is now changing into expectations of slow-er recovery. Coming back to peak cargo levels of 2008 is further away than anticipated in 2009. It takestime to reach the level of 2008 since the drop in cargo volumes was massive in many ports in 2009. Mod-erate growth that most ports are forecasting for 2010 and 2011 is probably not enough to raise the vo-lumes back to the pre-recession levels in the Baltic Sea in 2011. Most ports are expecting the level to beachieved in 2012-2013.

At the same time as many ports are still tackling with issues of inadequate demand, in other ports capacityrelated issues, like inadequate storage and berth capacities, are hindering the growth and development ofports. Among other things, this may indicate that volume growth is speeding up in some ports and cargosegments more than anticipated in 2009. In addition, it is possible that imbalances are found inside ports:the existing capacity might no longer fully match the changed cargo structure.

Many institutions, banks and governments have recently revised upwards their forecasts for national eco-nomic growth for this and upcoming year in the BSR. Cautious optimism is spreading at the same time asdouble dip is still feared for. It seems that ports in the BSR believe that we are heading into moderategrowth path instead of plunging back into recession. If ports are right, growth tendency in the Baltic Seawill continue and it is indeed time for optimism.

Turku, 7 September 2010

Johanna Särkijärvi, Project ManagerSakari Kajander, Senior ResearcherAntti Saurama, Head of Research and Consulting Services

Centre for Maritime Studies at the University of Turku


I N T R O D U C T I O N

Trend information on Baltic Sea ports

There are several signs indicating that the BalticSea region (BSR) is slowly exiting the recessionthat started in the autumn of 2008. It is still un-clear what the world will look like after the cri-sis, how long the recovery will take and if thereare any long-term structural changes in thetransport sector due to the recession. In theBaltic Port Barometer survey ports of the BalticSea have been asked to consider these andother issues in regard to port sector.

Views of ports give us valuable informationabout the future prospects of the economicdevelopment in the region since port and cargoflow development can be considered importantindicators of confidence in future market devel-opment in trade and in economy.

The Baltic Port Barometer is a survey designedto provide trend information on Baltic Sea portdevelopment, by assessing business and trafficprospects across the Baltic Sea region. The Ba-rometer comprises a set of qualitative informa-tion that is collected via electronic question-naires from top-level port authority representa-tives in the BSR. It is designed to estimate de-velopment prospects especially over the short-term throughout the BSR.

Most survey questions concern ports’ expecta-tions for the year 2011 but also the expectationsfor this year’s total cargo volume developmenthave been covered. This year’s survey was im-plemented between 15 June and 10 August2010. The Barometer was carried out by theCentre for Maritime Studies (CMS) at the Uni-versity of Turku, Finland, in co-operation withthe Baltic Ports Organization (BPO).

The Centre for Maritime Studies and the BalticPorts Organization wish to express their warm-est thanks to the port authorities for contribut-ing to the analysis and sharing their views.

The Baltic Port Barometer 2011 is due for publi-cation in August-September 2011.


T H E R E S P O N D E N T S T O T H E S U R V E Y

Seaports invited to take part in the survey in-cluded ports in each country in the BSR. A total of49 seaports participated in this third Baltic PortBarometer survey. The largest numbers of re-spondents were again from Sweden, Finland andDenmark which also have the largest numbers ofports in the Baltic Sea Region. Ports from eachcountry were represented.

Fig 1. Breakdown of the respondents by country

The results of the survey are not analysed atcountry level in order to secure the anonymity ofthe respondents. However, the BSR has beendivided into three regions to be able to analysespatial differences:

Northern coast: Sweden and FinlandEastern coast: Russia, Estonia, Latvia andLithuaniaSouthern coast: Poland, Germany andDenmark

Fig 2. Breakdown of the respondents by region

The ports are classified into three classes accord-ing to the size of the port:

Small ports: handling less than 2 milliontonnes of cargo annuallyMiddle-sized ports: handling 2-10 milliontonnes of cargo annuallyBig ports: handling over 10 million tonnesof cargo annually

Hereafter, when ports are referred to as small,middle-sized or big, it is according to their annualcargo volumes. In the Barometer, each port hasan equal weighting regardless of its size.

Fig 3. Breakdown of the respondents by size (handled cargoper year)

The ports have also been divided according to thetype of cargo that is handled in the port. If certaintype of cargo constitutes 60% or more of all cargohandled in the port, this cargo type is considereddominating. The following classes have beenformed:

Liquid bulk port: 60% or more of all cargoin a port is liquid bulkDry bulk port: 60% or more of all cargo ina port is dry bulkOther dry cargo port: 60% or more of allcargo in a port is other dry cargo (= non-bulk)Mixed cargo port: no dominating cargotype

Fig 4. Breakdown of the respondents by type of cargohandled primarily in the port

17

9

9

5

3

2

2

1

1

Sweden

Finland

Denmark

Estonia

Germany

Poland

Latvia

Russia

Lithuania

269

14 Northern coastEastern coastSouthern coast

22

16

11 below 2 million tonnes2-10 million tonnesover 10 million tonnes

4

1717

11liquid bulk dominatingdry bulk dominatingother dry cargo dominatingmixed


B A L T I C P O R T I N D E X

Rising expectations among Baltic Sea ports

Baltic Port Index (BPI) that gives a general over-view of ports’ expectations for the upcoming yearin the Baltic Sea has more than doubled sinceprevious Barometer.

This means that ports’ expectations for the year2011 are now notably higher than they were forthe year 2010 last autumn. Baltic Port Index is at50 now, which is relatively high.

Fig 5. Outlook of the Baltic Sea ports for the year 2011based on current survey (n=49)

Fig 6. Outlook of the Baltic Sea ports for the year 2010based on previous Barometer published in 2009 (n=51).

Calculating balance figures and Baltic Port In-dex (BPI)

In most survey questions respondents are pre-sented with a choice of five alternative re-sponses (++, +, 0, -, --). An index number is de-rived from the percentage distribution of theresponses. This balance figure describing re-spondents' average opinion is calculated byweighting the percentage shares of the differentresponses by +1, +0.5, 0, -0.5 and -1, accord-ingly. The highest possible balance figure is +100and the lowest -100. Balance figure +100 will bereached when all respondents choose the mostpositive alternative (++) in the survey question.

Based on the individual balance figures, an ag-gregated index number, Baltic Port Index (BPI), iscalculated. This is done by calculating an averageof two balance figures: the one describing ports’expectations regarding general economic devel-opment in the Baltic Sea region and the one de-scribing ports’ expectations in respect to the totalcargo development in their port in 2011.

50Baltic Port Index 2011

18Baltic Port Index 2010


P O R T S ’ V I E W S O N D E V E L O P M E N T F O R 2 0 1 0

Total cargo volumes in 2010

Outlook on cargo development is positive forthe current year

Cargo volumes are expected to develop positivelythis year. Majority (73%) of the respondents ex-pect either some or strong growth in their port’scargo volumes. The expectations for the year2010 are now more positive than a year ago; inlast year’s Barometer 63% of the respondentsforecasted higher volumes for 2010.

Fig 7. Expected development of total cargo volumes inrespondents’ ports for 2010 (n=49)

Fig 8. Expected development of total cargo volumes inrespondents’ ports for 2010, ports by type (n=49)

Most positive views are found among big ports,other dry cargo ports and ports located in theeastern and northern coast of the Baltic Sea. Thebiggest differences between port groups can befound when comparing ports by size.

Fig 9. Expected development of total cargo volumes inrespondents’ ports for 2010, ports by size class (n=49)

Fig 10. Expected development of total cargo volumes inrespondents’ ports for 2010, ports by location (n=49)

14 %

59 %

18 %

6 %

2 %

strong growth

some growth

no change

some fall

strong fall

6 %12 %

9 %

24 % 50 %

12 %9 %

41 %

50 %

71 %73 %

18 % 18 % 9 %

drybulkports

liquidbulkports

other drycargoports

mixedcargoports

strong growthsome growthno changesome fallstrong fall

5 %9 %

6 %

23 %13 % 18 %

59 %

69 %45 %

5 % 13 %36 %

smallports

middle-sizedports

bigports


7 %4 %14 %

11 %19 %

21 %

78 % 62 %43 %

11 % 15 % 14 %

eastcoastports

northcoastports

southcoastports



P O R T S ’ V I E W S O N D E V E L O P M E N T F O R 2 0 1 1

Baltic Sea region economy in 2011

Moderate economic growth is widely expectedfor 2011

The respondents are almost unanimous in theirview of the development of economy in the BalticSea region in 2011: 84% expects moderate eco-nomic growth. The short-term forecast for theeconomic development is much better than inlast year’s Barometer.

The most confident on the future growth of theBaltic Sea region economy are middle-sized ports,ports having mixed cargo structure and portslocated in the northern and in the southern BalticSea.

Fig 11. Expected economic development in the BSR for 2011 (n=49)

Fig 12. Expected economic development in the BSR for 2011, ports by location (n=49)

10 %

84 %

4 %

2 %

0 %

strong econ. growth

moderate econ. growth

no change

moderate econ. downturn

strong econ. downturn

11 %11 %

4 %

67 %85 % 93 %

11 % 12 % 7 %

eastcoastports

northcoastports

southcoastports

strong econ. growth

moderate econ. growth

no change

moderate econ downturn

strong econ downturn


Total cargo volumes in 2011

Growth expected for 2011

2011 has the potential to be the first year afterthe recession when growth in cargo volumes willbe reported all over Baltic Sea region. Nearly 90%of the respondents of the Barometer survey be-lieve that cargo volumes in their ports will growin 2011. The rest expect the volumes to stay inthe level 2010.

The most positive views regarding cargo volumedevelopment are found in big ports’ and middle-sized ports’ groups, in a group of ports havingmixed cargo structure and ports located in theeastern coast of the Baltic Sea.

Fig 13. Expected development of total cargo volumes inrespondents’ ports for 2011 (n=49)

Fig 14. Expected development of total cargo volumes inrespondents’ ports for 2011, ports by size class (n=49)

Fig 15. Expected development of total cargo volumes inrespondents’ ports for 2011, ports by type (n=49)

Fig 16. Expected development of total cargo volumes inrespondents’ ports for 2011, ports by location (n=49)

10 %

78 %

12 %

0 %

0 %

strong growth

some growth

no change

some fall

strong fall18 %

6 % 9 %

77 %81 % 73 %

5 % 13 % 18 %

smallports

middle-sizedports

bigports


29 % 25 %

59 % 75 %100 %

73 %

12 %27 %

drybulkports

liquidbulkports

other drycargoports

mixedcargoports


22 %8 % 14 %

44 %85 %

86 %

33 %8 %

eastcoastports

northcoastports

southcoastports



When back to peak cargo volumes?

Peak cargo volumes further ahead than antici-pated in previous Barometer

The respondents were asked to evaluate in thesurvey when the cargo volumes in the Baltic Seawill reach the peak cargo volumes of 2007/2008.This same question was included also in the pre-vious Barometer (Figure 17).

This year most respondents believe that the re-turn to peak cargo volumes will happen either in2012 or 2013. In previous Barometer, the returnwas dated to 2011 or 2012.

Views of ports in current Barometer (2010) Views of ports in the previous Barometer (2009)

Fig 17. Expected time of the maritime transport volumes to reach the levels of peak years 2007/2008 in the BSR. Views of theports in 2010 (left, n=49) and in 2009 (right, n=51)

2 %10 %

43 %31 %

14 %

2010201120122013later

2 %14 %

35 %27 %

22 %

2009201020112012later


Dry bulk, liquid bulk and other dry cargo volumes in 2011

Half is expecting growth in liquid bulk segment

The expectations on the development of liquidbulk cargo volumes are not as good as for totalcargo volumes. Approximately half of therespondents expects growth while the other halfbelieve s that the liquid bulk volumes in their portwill stay in this year’s level in 2011. Comparedwith the previous Barometer, the expectationsare slightly better.

Two thirds expect growth in dry bulk cargohandling

Expectations for the dry bulk cargo developmentare more positive than for the liquid bulk cargosegment but slightly less positive than for thenon-bulk cargo segment. One third of therespondents is not yet expecting growth.

Most positive outlook on non-bulk cargo

Prospects for the development of other dry cargomarket are better than for bulk cargo market inthe Baltic Sea. The majority of the respondents(78%) expect the handling of other dry cargo(non-bulk cargo) to grow in their port in 2011.The expectations have risen from the yearbefore.

Liquid bulk

Fig 18. Expected development of liquid bulk volumes for2011 (n=37)

Dry bulk

Fig 19. Expected development of dry bulk volumes for 2011(n=43)

Other dry cargo

Fig 20. Expected development of other dry cargo volumes(non-bulk cargo, including all unitized cargo) for 2011(n=42)

5 %

41 %

51 %

3 %

0 %

strong growth

some growth

no change

some fall

strong fall

9 %

58 %

26 %

7 %

0 %

strong growth

some growth

no change

some fall

strong fall

7 %

71 %

21 %

0 %

0 %

strong growth

some growth

no change

some fall

strong fall

In the survey, ports were asked to forecast the change in their cargo volumes by type of cargo. Since not all of thecategories are relevant to all ports, the number of respondents in each category is mentioned under the figures.


Container, ro-ro and project cargo volumes in 2011

Container handling has the most positive out-look among unitized cargo

Expectations regarding the development of con-tainer handling in respondents’ ports are similarto that of ‘other dry cargo’. Majority (76%) fore-see growth in their cargo volumes, while one infourth expects no change. The expectations areparticularly good in the eastern coast of the BalticSea. The outlook on container market has im-proved since previous Barometer.

Forecast for ro-ro volumes almost at the levelof containers

The outlook on ro-ro segment is almost as goodas for containers. Majority (70%) is expectinggrowth for 2011 but almost one third believe thatthe volumes will stay at the level of 2010.

Confidence in project cargo development

Handling of project cargo is also foreseen to growin most ports. The prognosis is almost identical tothat of ro-ro: majority (70%) expects either someor strong growth.

Containers

Fig 21. Expected development of container volumes for2011 (n=29)

Ro-ro

Fig 22. Expected development of ro-ro volumes for 2011(n=33)

Project cargo

Fig 23. Expected development of project cargo volumes for2011 (n=33)

14 %

62 %

24 %

0 %

0 %

strong growth

some growth

no change

some fall

strong fall

12 %

58 %

30 %

0 %

0 %

strong growth

some growth

no change

some fall

strong fall

9 %

61 %

30 %

0 %

0 %

strong growth

some growth

no change

some fall

strong fall

In the survey, containers, ro-ro and project cargo form part of the segment called other dry cargo (non-bulk).


Passenger traffic in 2011

Moderate or no growth expected in the pas-senger markets

Of the 49 respondents, 22 have passenger trafficin their port. Moderate growth is expected inmost respondents’ ports but 41% expect themarket to stagnate in 2011.

The outlook is better than in previous Barometerin a sense that none of the respondents foreseefall in passenger traffic volumes. However, onaverage the respondents are cautious in theirexpectations.

Fig 24. Expected development of passenger traffic in respondents’ ports for 2011 (n=22)

Profitability in 2011

Growth tendency to support profitability in ports

As a whole, the year 2011 should be better than2010 in terms of ports’ profitability in the BalticSea. Majority (70%) of the respondents expect

the profitability of their port to improve and onefourth to stay at the level of 2010. None of therespondents foresee a fall.

Fig 25. Expected development of profitability in respondents’ ports for 2011 (n=49)

0 %

59 %

41 %

0 %

0 %

strong growth

some growth

no change

some fall

strong fall

10 %

63 %

27 %

0 %

0 %

much higher

slightly higher

no change

slightly lower

much lower


Capacity in 2011

Half is expecting increase in capacity

Over half of the respondents report that the ca-pacity in their port will increase in 2011. Capacityincreases are foreseen especially in the groups ofmiddle-sized and big ports as well as in liquid bulkports and ports having mixed cargo structure.

More respondents report of future capacity in-creases than in previous Barometer. Both theshare of those who expect increase and thosewho expect considerable increase has grown.

Fig 26. Expected changes in port capacity for 2011 (n=49)

Fig 27. Expected changes in port capacity for 2011, ports by type (n=49)

10 %

43 %

47 %

0 %

increase considerably

increase

remain at the same level

decrease

59 %

25 %

53 %

27 %

35 %

75 %

47 %

36 %

6 %

36 %

drybulkports

liquidbulkports

other drycargoports

mixedcargoports

increase considerablyincreaseremain at the same leveldecrease


Investments in 2011

Half of the ports to invest more

Over half of the respondents foresees increase inthe investments in their own port. This is morethan in previous Barometer. Nevertheless, onethird expects the investments to stay at the samelevel, and the rest foresee even declining portinvestments.

The share of the ports expecting higher invest-ments is greatest among ports located in theeastern coast of the Baltic Sea and in mixed cargoports. In the northern and in the southern coastof the Baltic Sea, the situation is more varied:some of the respondents are expecting even con-siderable increase in port investments whilesome expect decrease.

Fig 28. Expected changes in port investments for 2011(n=49)

Fig 29. Expected changes in port investments for 2011,ports by location (n=49)

Fig 30. Expected changes in port investments for 2011, ports by type (n=49)

10 %

45 %

35 %

8 %

2 %

considerably higher

higher

at the same level

lower

considerably lower

4 %8 % 14 %

33 %35 % 36 %

67 % 42 % 36 %

12 % 14 %

eastcoastports

northcoastports

southcoastports

considerably higherhigherat the same levellowerconsiderably lower

6 %25 % 12 %

9 %

41 %

50 %

35 %

18 %

53 %

25 %

41 %

45 %

6 % 6 %27 %

drybulkports

liquidbulkports

other drycargoports

mixedcargoports

considerably higher

increase

at the same level

lower

considerably lower


Bottlenecks

Inadequate demand is still a major challenge

Despite the general growth tendency, inadequatedemand is mentioned most often (37%) as one ofthe most important bottlenecks, like in the previ-ous Barometer. In relation to inadequate de-mand, every fourth respondent mentions fiercecompetition as a bottleneck.

At the same time as some ports are faced by in-sufficient demand, many ports raise capacityissues, such as inadequate storage capacity or

lack of expanding areas as major concerns. Thisimplies that in some ports growth in cargo vol-umes has already started causing capacity prob-lems.

Compared with the previous Barometer, the fol-lowing bottlenecks are mentioned more often:inadequate storage capacity, fierce competition,inadequate berth capacity and inadequate fair-ways.

Fig 31. Major bottlenecks in the development and growth of ports (n=49). The ports were asked to list 1-3 factors that theyregard as the most important bottlenecks impeding their development and growth. These factors are listed according to thepercentage of ports that mention the bottleneck in question. The category “other” includes this year, for example, high pilotingcost.

37 %

29 %

29 %

27 %

24 %

22 %

18 %

16 %

16 %

10 %

8 %

6 %

4 %

2 %

inadequate demandinadequate storage capacity

inadequate hinterland connectionslack of expanding areas

fierce competitionenvironmental and/or other legislation

inadequate fairwaysinadequate berth capacity

difficulties in obtaining fundinghigh operating costs

inadequate field capacityinadequate cargo handling capacity

otherdifficulties in hiring skilled labour


Special theme

P O R T S A N D S T R U C T U R A L C H A N G E S

Cargo structure

Majority of respondents report changes in thecargo structure of their port

In the survey, the respondents were asked toconsider if there has been a decrease or an in-crease in the share of certain types of cargo sincethe beginning of 2009. The aim was to examine ifthe cargo structure has changed in the ports be-cause of the recession.

Overall, no general trend can be positively de-tected in the Baltic Sea, although, according to

the responses, changes in many individual portshave taken place. Approximately one third of therespondents report no change in their port’scargo structure. The percentage of ports report-ing changes was highest in the eastern coast andlowest in the northern coast of the Baltic Sea.Among dry bulk ports only half report changes inthe cargo structure.

Fig 32. Percentage of respondents who reported decrease / increase in the share of given cargo types since the beginning of2009 (n=49).

10 %

20 %

10 %

6 %

20 %

16 %

6 %

12 %

37 %

6 %

24 %

22 %

4 %

16 %

22 %

8 %

18 %

29 %

coal and coke

other dry bulk

oil and oil products

other liquid bulk

containers

ro-ro

project cargo

other

no changes

Percentage of ports reporting decrease in the shareof…

coal and coke

other dry bulk

oil and oil products

other liquid bulk

containers

ro-ro

project cargo

other

no changes

Percentage of ports reporting increase in the share of…


Ships calling in ports

Increase in the size of vessels in liner traffic

The respondents were asked to consider if therehave been any changes in the liner traffic in theirport since the beginning of 2009. Over one thirdof the respondents report no structural changesbut at least one short-term trend can be identi-fied:

increase in the size of vessels visiting a port whichis mentioned by one third of the respondents. Adecrease in number of vessels visiting a port isalso reported by one third.

Liner traffic

Fig 33. Changes in liner traffic since the beginning of 2009: percentages of respondents who chose the given option (n=38)

Bigger vessels in non-liner traffic

In addition to liner traffic, the respondents wereasked to consider if there have been any changesin the non-liner traffic (tramp shipping) since thebeginning of 2009. The trend of bigger ships visit-ing a port is more clearly detected in non-linershipping than in liner shipping. Nearly half of therespondents report an increase in vessel size.

Decrease in the number of vessels is the secondmost commonly mentioned change, in the sameway as in liner traffic segment. Only one fourth ofthe respondents state that no changes havetaken place in non-liner traffic since the begin-ning of 2009.

Non-liner traffic (tramp shipping)

Fig 34. Changes in non-liner traffic since the beginning of 2009: percentages of respondents who chose the given option (n=43)

37 %

32 %

32 %

21 %

13 %

13 %

11 %

11 %

5 %

3 %

3 %

0 %

no changebigger vessels visit your port

number of vessels visiting your port has decreasednumber of vessels visiting your port has increased

traffic with other Baltic Sea ports has decreasedtraffic with other Baltic Sea ports has increased

traffic with ports outside Baltic Sea has decreasedtraffic with ports outside Baltic Sea has increased

vessels visit more ports on their routesmaller vessels visit your port

vessels visit fewer ports on their routeother

44 %

37 %

23 %

23 %

19 %

7 %

7 %

5 %

2 %

0 %

bigger vessels visit your portnumber of vessels visiting your port has decreasednumber of vessels visiting your port has increased

no changetraffic with other Baltic Sea ports has decreased

smaller vessels visit your porttraffic with other Baltic Sea ports has increased

traffic with ports outside Baltic Sea has increasedtraffic with ports outside Baltic Sea has decreased

other


Upcoming sulphur regulation

Sulphur regulation mostly to decrease cargo volumes

In 2015, the highest sulphur content allowed inship fuel in the Baltic Sea will decrease to 0.1%(MARPOL 73/78 Convention, Annex IV). The res-pondents of the Barometer were asked to eva-luate how this change will affect their own port.

Most respondents believe that there will be adecrease either in total cargo volumes or in spe-

cific cargo types in their port. Most often men-tioned cargo type to experience decline in vo-lumes is ro-ro. In addition to changes in cargovolumes, 16% expect the vessel size of the shipsvisiting their port to grow. Nevertheless, onethird foresees no changes due to switch to lowsulphur fuels in 2015.

Fig 35. Expected impact of switch to low sulphur fuels in the Baltic Sea in 2015: percentages of respondents who chose the givenoption (n=49)

43 %

37 %

16 %

14 %

12 %

8 %

6 %

4 %

4 %

0 %

decrease in total cargo volumesnone

increase in the size of vessels visiting the portdecrease in specific cargo types

decrease in direct overseas callsincrease in total cargo volumes

decrease in the size of vessels visiting the portincrease in specific cargo types

otherincrease in direct overseas calls

BalticPortList2009

The most comprehensive annual report of Baltic Sea ports’ traffic and cargo throughput!

Coming out in October 2010

Over 210 ports in nine Baltic Sea region countries.

General review of maritime transport in the Baltic Sea, detailed statistical data of single ports, market share analyses, trends in 2006-2009, and much more.

Now available in electronic form!

www.balticportlist.comCENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

University of Turku, Finland

For further information, please contact

Johanna Särkijärvi, Project [email protected]

Sakari Kajander, Senior [email protected]

Antti Saurama, Head of Research and Consulting [email protected]

Centre for Maritime StudiesUniversity of Turku

FI-20014 Turun yliopistoFINLAND

http://mkk.utu.fi/

Baltic Port Barometer 2010

Documents

Transcript of Baltic Port Barometer 2010