Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04 Earth System Science Partnership for Global Change Research...

Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04

Earth System Science Partnershipfor Global Change Research

Start

• an integrated study of the Earth System,

• the changes occurring to the System, and

• the implications for global sustainability.

Integrated Regional Studies


Established 1980

Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1993+)

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)

Objectives

♦ To determine the predictability of climate

♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate


Achievements after 25 years of

WCRP ♦ Significantly improved observing systems (atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere)

♦ Sophisticated coupled climate models

♦ Advanced assimilation techniques and forecast techniques / systems including ones based on ensembles of models

♦ L-T predictions possible, e.g. El Nino…

♦ Another level of knowledge about climate predictability and change

♦ etc.


Challenges for WCRP

Seamless predictioneamless prediction problem- medium range, weeks, decades, centuries

Prediction of the broader climate/Earth systemDemonstrate the usefulness to society of

WCRP-enabled predictions & projections Coordinate & implement activities to exploit fully

- new & increasing data streams (environmental satellites & in situ observations i.e. the Argo system)

- growth in capability & availability of computing

- increasing complexity & breadth of models

- increasing data assimilation ability

GEWEX 1988 SPARC 1992

WOCE 1990-2002

CLIVAR 1995

TOGA 1985-1994

WGNEWGCMWGSFIPABWGSAT

ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000

SOLAS 2001 ->

CliC 2000

http://www.clivar.org/index.htm

GEWEX CliCCLIVAR SPARC

CliC

SPARC

GEWEX

CLIVAR

WCRP Domains

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Climate and CryosphereClimate Variability and PredictabilityStratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate


AIMTo facilitate prediction of the

climate/earth system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society

COPES Coordinated Observation & Prediction of the Earth

System

Goals Determine what aspects of the

climate/earth system are and are not predictable, at weekly, seasonal, interannual and decadal through to century time-scales

Utilise improving observing systems, data assimilation techniques and models of the climate/earth system

(-> IGBP, GCOS, NWP centres, …)


Priorities for the next decade

(agreed at WCRP-Conference, Geneva, 1997)

Assessing the nature and predictability of

seasonal to interdecadal climate variations at

global and regional scales

Providing the scientific basis for operational predictions

Detecting climate change and attributing causes

Projecting the magnitude and rate of human-induced change (as input for IPCC, UNFCCC, ...)


2005: after 25 years of WCRP New overarching and integrating

Strategic Framework

Prediction of entire climate system(→ Earth System)

FGGE → extended weather prediction

TOGA → seasonal prediction (tropics)THORPEX → deterministic 2nd week prediction esp high impact weather, GWE

COPES → climate system prediction


Project Contributions:

observing system

components

process understanding

model components

interaction with global

system

(impact and response)

assimilation & reanalysis

prediction & scenarios

contribution to specific

themes

Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System

COPES(2005-2015)

CliC

SPARC

GEWEX

CLIVAR

COPES



(2005-2015)

CliC

SPARC

GEWEX

CLIVAR

COPES

TF-1TF-2

TF-3TF-4

TF-COPESTF-SP

GEWEX 1988 SPARC 1 992

WOCE 1990-2002

CLIVAR 1995

TOGA 1985-1994

SOLAS 2001 ->

WGObsAssim

Model- lingPanel


CliC 2000 WGNEWGCMWGSFIPAB

TFSP,TF-COPES

http://www.clivar.org/index.htm


EXAMPLES of specific objectives

• Regional climate change• Systematic errors in AGCM and CGCM• Arid and desert climates• Predictability of monsoons• Contribution to IPCC WG1 report• Improving projection of mean sea level rise• Production of climate data sets• Chemistry – climate models -> ES models


Task Force formed to define and initiate a process to plan & implement COPES: report to JSC26 in 2005

COPES discussion document available to WCRP stakeholders for comments, including suggestions for Specific Objectives

WCRP – COPES : Status

Reports to JSC

Co-chairs: B.Hoskins, J.ChurchRepresentatives of core projectsChairs of modeling and obs. panelsExperts in op. prediction, satellite obs., and funding of large programmes

Will propose organisation and initial objectives of COPES


Modelling Panel

Coordinate modelling across WCRPFocus on climate system predictionLiaise with WGOA (assim., initial.,

reanalysis, data gaps)Oversee data management in

modelling activitiesLiaise with IGBP and IHDPChair: J.ShuklaGEWEX member: J.Polcher


WG on Observation and AssimilationCoordinates synthesis of global obs. through

analysis, reanalysis, assimilation across WCRP Facilitates interaction with WMO, IOC, GCOS,

GOOS, etc. wrt to optimization of observing systems

Coordinates information and data management across WCRP

Takes over tasks of WG on satellite matters• Chair: K.Trenberth• Secretariat: G.Sommeria• Members: J.Shukla, J.Key, W.Rossow,

B.Randel, A.Lorenc, A.Simmons, G.Duchossois, M.Manton, E.Harrison, CLIVAR ?

• Space agencies? Other experts?


Proposal for development of global climate products (for WGOA)

Systematic re-processing and coordinated re-analysis of all available observations acquired from various satellite sensors and other data sources since several decades

• Would be complementary to model re-analyses in order to define “present climate”

• Would serve as a benchmark to validate climate models and thus improve our ability to forecast climate evolution at all time scales

• Would contribute to the development of a coordinated global observation strategy


Task Force on Seasonal Prediction

• Determine extent to which seasonal prediction of global/regional climate is possible with current models and observations

• Identify the current limitations of the climate system model and observational data sets used to determine seasonal predictability

• Develop a coordinated plan for pan-WCRP climate system retrospective seasonal forecasting experiments

• Reported to the JSC in March 2004, the next report in March 2005


Hypothesis• There is currently untapped seasonal

predictability due to interactions (and memory) among all the elements of the climate system (Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Cryosphere)

Condition: Seasonal Predictability Needs to be Assessed with Respect to a Changing Climate– Use IPCC Class Models

Free RunningModel PDF

Initial Condition(t=0) PDF

t=limit of Predictability?


Contributions of WCRP Projects

• GEWEX:– provides guidance on how to initialize land surface– proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments:

understanding land-surface feedbacks• CliC:

– provides guidance on how to initialize cryosphere– proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments

• CLIVAR:– provides guidance on how to initialize ocean-atmosphere– proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments:

understanding atmosphere-ocean coupling and variability• SPARC:

– provides guidance on how to prescribe atmospheric composition– provides guidance on how to initialize the stratosphere– proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments


Ice sheets, cryo

Hydrology Veg. C cycle

•Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP)

•Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ARMIP)

•Asian-Australian Monsoon Atmospheric GCM Intercomparison Project

•Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)

•Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom)

•Carbon-Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP)

•Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C)

•Cloud Model Feedback Intercomparison Project

•Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

•Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)

•Dynamics of North Atlantic Models (DYNAMO)

•Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI)

•Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs)

•ENSO Intercomparison Project (ENSIP)

•GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS)

•GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS)

•GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS)

•Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)

•Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP)

•Models and Measurements II (MMII): Stratospheric Transport

•Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP)

•Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

•Paleo Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP)

•Project for Intercomparison of Landsurface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS)

•Potsdam DGVM Intercomparison Project

•Potsdam NPP Model Intercomparison Project

•Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS)

•Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for Asia (RMIP)

•Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP)

•Snow Models Intercomparison Project (SnowMIP )

•Stretched Grid Model Intercomparison Project (SGMIP)

•Study of Tropical Oceans In Coupled models (STOIC)

•WCRP F11 Intercomparison

•WCRP Radon Intercomparison

•WCRP Scavenging Tracer Intercomparison

•Ice sheet Model Intercomparison Project

•Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE)

•Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2 (SMIP-2) and Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2/Historical Forecast (SMIP-2/HFP)


Proposed ESSP Modelling Strategy

1. Experimentation with current GCMs for a) hindcasts and projections (IPCC),b) assimilation and prediction of the coupled system on

seasonal to decadal time-scales

2. Improvement and validation of current GCMs used in 1

3. GCM components of the carbon cycle, dynamic vegetation, tropospheric chemistry, and a range of biogeochemical cycles

4. Extending GCMs to include these additional componentsof the Earth System in turn, as a basis for 1

WCRP

WCRP

IGBP

WCRP/IGBP

cryosphere, CliC


Proposed ESSP Modelling Strategy

5. Development of more holistic models (including EMICs) to

a) study the interactive aspects of the naturalsystem

a) simulate longer time-scales, e.g. Ice Age Cycleb) compare and validate with GCMs where possible

6. Development of models of the interaction betweenthe human and natural systems based on the more holistic models

7. Simple models for design of the diagnosis ofcomplex coupled models

IGBP

IGBP/IHDP/DIVERSITAS

ALL


Time frame for COPES

• COPES will use the 1979-2004-2009 period to develop reference climate data sets and advanced forecasting techniques. This period will be used for retrospective forecasts of weekly?, seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variations

• The period 2010-2019 will serve as a testbed for real time forecasts

• Need and use of special observing periods?• Defining and planning of COPES will continue and will

be widely presented at the 2006 Global Change Conference which markes the WCRP’s 25th

anniversary


WOCE Final, San Antonio, 11-15 November 2002

ACSYS Final, St. Petersburg, 11-14 November 2003

CLIVAR 1st Science Conference, Baltimore, 21-25 June 2004

3rd SPARC General Assembly, Victoria, 1-6 August 2004

1st SOLAS Open Science Conference, 13-16 October 2004

CliC 1st Science Conference, Beijing, 11-15 April 2005

5th GEWEX Science Conference, Irvine, 20-24 June 2005

2nd Global Change Conference, Beijing, October (?) 2006

Recent and future WCRP Conferences


JPS for WCRP David Carson David Carson D/WCRPD/WCRP,, ESSPESSP

V. SatyanV. Satyan D/modelling, D/modelling, WGNE, WGCM, WGNE, WGCM, START, MPSTART, MP

Valery Valery DetemmermaDetemmerman CLIVARn CLIVAR

Gilles Gilles Sommeria Sommeria GEWEX, WGOAGEWEX, WGOA

Vladimir Vladimir Ryabinin CliC, Ryabinin CliC, SPARC,SPARC, fluxesfluxes

Ann Salini Anne Chautard Margaret Lennon-Smith


THE TASK (simplified, after Kevin Trenberth) Take a large almost round rotating sphere

~8,000 miles (~12,800 km) in diameter. Surround it with a murky viscous atmosphere of

many gases mixed with water vapour, aerosols, etc..

Tilt its axis so that it wobbles back and forth with respect to the source of heat and light.

Freeze it at both ends and roast it in the middle. Cover most of the surface with a flowing liquid

that sometimes freezes and which feeds vapour into that atmosphere as it shifts up and down to the rhythmic pulling of the moon and the sun.

Condense and freeze some of the water vapour into clouds of imaginative shapes, sizes and composition.

Then try to predict the future conditions of that system for each place over the globe.


The Earth System: Coupling the Physical, Biogeochemical and Human Components

Coupled phys.-biol.-chem. Models

1980 1990 2000 2010

FGGE WOCE

GEWEX

TOGA CLIVAR

ACSYS

SPARC

CliC

Coupled Atm.-Ocean Models

Earth System Models

Operational Observing SystemsOperational Prediction Systems

Anthropogenic Climate Change, Detection & Attribution

Seasonal to Decadal ForecastingRegional Anomaly Prediction

Extended Range Weather Forecasts

Data Assimilation Techniques

Sci

ence

co

re

p

roje

cts

To

ols

Atmosphere Ocean Coupled

Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04 Earth System Science Partnership for Global Change Research...

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