Balázs Horváth, Practice Leader, UNDP, Europe and the CIS Bratislava Regional Centre Social and...
-
Upload
allison-morrison -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
2
Transcript of Balázs Horváth, Practice Leader, UNDP, Europe and the CIS Bratislava Regional Centre Social and...
Balázs Horváth,Practice Leader, UNDP, Europe and the CISBratislava Regional Centre
Social and Economic Challenges in SPECA Countries
Bratislava, 20 May 2010
AfT Roadmap for SPECA Ministerial Meeting, Baku 1-2 December, 2010
While there is common inheritance…Soviet legacy left many difficult challengesGeography: all Central Asian countries are landlocked
Russia only large market with transport access China, India: farther, transport routes inadequate To the closest EU countries is about 3,000 km
There are significant national differences Size (area, population, GDP)Resource endowment Income level Market reformsEconomic and political stability
Central Asia is not a homogenous region
The effect of the global economic crisis ranges from large to none…
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
IslamicRepublic ofAfghanistan
Azerbaijan Kazakhstan KyrgyzRepublic
Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
2008 2009 2010 est
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2010
But the broader impact on HD may be substantial, lasting, hitting mostly the
poor• Paper by 3 authors in BRC—on ECIS region as a whole
• Panel estimate: income elasticities of 12 HD indicators 29 ECIS countries, 1989-2008– poverty rates,– unemployment, – incidence of diseases, – under-five mortality, – life expectancy, – crime rates.
• Then: projecting HD indicators using GDP forecasts
Potential Impact of the Crisis
64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.4
64.5
64.6
64.7
64.8
64.9
65.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Male life expectancy at birth, years
Potential Impact of the Crisis
Poverty $5 at 2005 prices
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
The region has huge opportunities…
• Huge natural resource endowments* oil, gas production already considerable
* large reserves remaining
* other mineral wealth
* massive hydropower , solar & wind potential
• Young population, generally good education levels Potential for: * dynamic labour force
* competitive economy
* demographic dividends, rather than time-bomb
• In past decade: expanding fast
• Growth economies now closer: China, India, Turkey, each other…
…but in some SPECA countries, per capita GDP remains very low
949 1,
761
1,93
9
1,96
3
5,71
2
14,7
06
1,01
9 2,04
3
2,45
5
6,16
9
8,10
1
10,4
69
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Rw
anda
Afg
hani
stan
Taj
ikis
tan
Nig
eria
Sud
an
Kyr
gyz
Rep
ublic
Uzb
ekis
tan
Chi
na
Tur
kmen
ista
n
Aze
rbai
jan
Kaz
akhs
tan
Rus
sian
Fed
erat
ion
Per-capita GDP, in US$, PPP terms, 2008
Source: World Development Indicators
To promote trade and investment:Harmonized, predictable regulatory and legal frameworkstable economic growth for all people & all territoriesnew, well-paying and sustainable jobs poverty reduction, social inclusion
To promote joint interests, better manage/handle shared water, energy and environmental resources (e.g. Aral Sea)common infrastructurecommon challenges: environment, health, disaster preparednesslabour migrationillicit drug trafficking; crime and terrorism.
To fulfil potential and to reach sustainable development: regional cooperation needed
Trade can be a powerful source of economic growth & HD
It can bolster broadly based growth & progress toward MDGs;
Better resource allocation (efficiency, job gains) can raise growth and lead to poverty reduction & HD.
Final note: growth necessary but not sufficient for HD (GHDR).
In focus at this Conference: Trade and Human Development
Thank you for your attention…
United Nations Development Programme, Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent
States,Bratislava Regional Centre
http://europeandcis.undp.org