Balancing(processes,(resolu0on(and( ensembles(in(Earth ... ·...
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Balancing processes, resolu0on and ensembles in Earth System Models
Jean-‐François Lamarque CESM Chief Scien0st
Na0onal Center for Atmospheric Research
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CESM CMIP5 models
The deeper blue the beIer
IPCC AR5 Ch. 9
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Components of CESM
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Coupler
Atm.
Land
Sea-‐ice Ocean
Land-‐ice
Chemistry (CAM-‐Chem) WACCM
Forcings: • Greenhouse gases • Manmade aerosols • Volcanic erup0ons • Solar variability • Land-‐use change
Biogeochemistry
Biogeochemistry Wave model
MAPP Webinar J.-‐F. Lamarque
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Complexity
Resolu0on
Resources
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ENSEMBLES
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Internal variability and ensemble
Slide from C. Deser MAPP Webinar J.-‐F. Lamarque 6
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Slide from C. Deser 7 MAPP Webinar J.-‐F. Lamarque
Internal variability and ensemble
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PROCESSES
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Climate impacts of SLCFs
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Summer0me precipita0on (mm.day-‐1) as simulated by GFDL CM3, averaged over East Asia. The red dots indicate the simula0on in which the RCP4.5 aerosol emissions are kept at their 2005 level throughout the 21st century. Shading indicates the 3-‐member ensemble envelope. From Levy et al. (JGR, 2013).
MAPP Webinar J.-‐F. Lamarque
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Modeling SLCFs in CMIP3 and CMIP5
Emissions (anthropogenic & biomass burning)
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Shindell et al., JGR, 2008
2000 1850 2100
Emission Database
Integrated Assessment Models
Emissions from SRES A1B scenario
Lamarque et al., 2010
RCPs
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CMIP3 -‐> CMIP5: aerosols conc. -‐> emissions
IPCC AR5, Ch. 7
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Kiehl, 2007
CMIP3
Forster et al., 2013 -‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐>
IPCC AR5, Ch. 7
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CMIP3 -‐> CMIP5: aerosols conc. -‐> emissions
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IPCC AR5 SPM MAPP Webinar J.-‐F. Lamarque 13
CMIP3 -‐> CMIP5: aerosols conc. -‐> emissions
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ESM
Chemistry
Atmosphere
Land-Ice
Hydrology
Land use & land cover
change
Ecology
Cryosphere
Biogeo- Chemistry Land Ocean
Sea-ice
Using all research communi0es to improve process representa0on and evalua0on: the case of the Land Model
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Biogeochemistry feedbacks
Arneth et al., 2010
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How do we factor in evolu0on?
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Summary • Bringing new processes allows for a more physically/chemically/biologically observable Earth System Model (requires link to external communi0es)
• Ensembles are a key component to our understanding of the Earth System and how it might respond to forcing
• Significantly impacts the balance of resolu0on with exis0ng resources
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Summary • Bringing new processes allows for a more physically/chemically/biologically observable Earth System Model (requires link to external communi0es)
• Ensembles are a key component to our understanding of the Earth System and how it might respond to forcing
• Significantly impacts the balance of resolu0on with exis0ng resources
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Bauer et al., 2015