BACLIAT workshop

Business areas and future climate

Climate change as a business risk

• Weather already frequently causes business disruption and in

some cases has an influence on productivity and sales.

• Climate change will lead to a wide range of threats and benefits,

both of which could present business opportunities.

• The business case for building resilience to the changing climate

can be made in terms of avoiding unexpected costs,

managing risks and making the most of opportunities.

• The consequences of climate change are very business and

sector specific – in order to make a business case for taking

action, we need to explore all the ways in which climate change

could affect us.

We are not alone

“The issue of expertise in relation to climate change

is now embedded within the organisation’s strategic

plan and we are in a better position to act as a well

informed and trusted source of information and

guidance to our members.” Vic Crisp, Chartered

Institute of Building Services Engineers

“There are niche markets in helping

others to identify and adapt to the risks

from climate and environmental change.

These can often be a development from

an established service rather than a

totally new departure.” Mike Samuels,

Owner of Medical Photographic Services

(SME)

Work to date

• [either delete this slide or complete as appropriate e.g.

with the outputs of any previous workshop, sector/

business specific information, such as your reasons for

carrying out this work or background research]

The purpose of today’s workshop

• Today’s workshop will draw upon your knowledge of your

organisation to brainstorm potential future impacts of climate

change.

• We will use UKCIP’s BACLIAT workshop (business areas climate

assessment tool).

• The idea is to uncover all the potential impacts without making

any judgement on how likely an event will be (identifying

significant impacts or prioritising can be part of a future

exercise).

• The only climate information we will be using are headline

messages.

Changes in annual / seasonal averages

• higher average temperatures, particularly

in summer and winter

• changes in seasonal rainfall patterns

• rising sea levels

Changes in extremes

• more very hot days and heatwaves

• more intense downpours of rain

• higher intensity storms

Website: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk

Expected changes in the UK

• markets

• logistics

• process

• finance

• people

• premises

Climate change provides both threats and benefits

A generic framework for considering

climate impacts on business areas:

BACLIAT – Business Areas Climate Assessment Tool

Markets

Changing demand for goods and services:

• tourism: Mediterranean is too hot, so visit UK

instead

• food & drink: summer preferences, al fresco

pavement cafes 24/7

• leisure: demand for parks, gardens, heritage

• building design: passive cooling, sustainable

construction

• technology: monitoring, flood protection,

cooling equipment, health products etc.

• global impacts on markets or supply chains

Logistics• Disruption of supply chains arising from:

– transport disruption

– impacts on suppliers

• Just in time systems increase

vulnerability

• Disruption to power or water supply

• For smaller companies, supply chains

and power supply represent a large

proportion of their exposure to the

climate risk.

Summer 2005: BMW lost hours of production equating to 50 cars as a result of delays to deliveries following riverine flooding

Process

Impacts on production processes and service delivery:

• some business processes, equipment, assets and

activities are temperature sensitive:

- food preparation and storage

- some industrial processes, such as waterless printing

- agriculture

- IT server room

• extreme events can cause damage or disruption

• climate change could reduce / increase production efficiencies

• extreme events will set new performance standards

People

Implications for employees and customers:

• poor or better working environment?

- external: construction, agriculture

- internal: offices in summer

- more complaints generally

• reputation as employer

- attract and retain high quality staff

Premises• Impacts of wind, rain, storm, fire and

subsidence on building fabric and

structure or grounds

• Internal environment: less winter

heating/ more summer cooling

• Design decisions based on historical

climate data likely to be inadequate

• Retrofitting existing buildings represents

a major challenge

• Sustainable construction needs to link

climate change adaptation and

mitigation agendas

Finance

• Insurance issues: increased premiums;

variable premiums; vulnerable locations;

uncertainty

• Investment issues: tests for future proofing

of investment, global impacts on

international investment

• Costs: impact on raw material prices;

retrofitting existing buildings and

equipment could be expensive

Changes in annual / seasonal averages

• higher average temperatures, particularly in summer and

winter

• changes in seasonal rainfall patterns

• rising sea levels

Changes in extremes

• more very hot days and heatwaves

• more intense downpours of rain

• higher intensity storms

Expected changes in the UK

Following this workshop we will:

• Re-write each impact so that it is clear what the climate driver

is, where the impact will be felt and what the business

consequences are.

• Discard the BACLIAT headings in favour of a structure that fits

with your organisation, if you have not already done so. This

allows risks to be assigned to the appropriate staff and be

involved in further discussions.

• The workshop may be used as part of a more rigorous approach

to developing an adaptation plan or strategy, for example by

using the UKCIP Adaptation Wizard (www.ukcip.org.uk/wizard/).

Next steps

Thank you for taking part

www.ukcip.org.uk